Uk Betting Forum Common Race of Day
- Thread starter markfinn
- Start date
Leodis
Gelding
Albasheer is reasonably handicapped on its 2nd and 3rd LTO run and, although ran a stinker LTO, recorded an adjusted gallop, out figure that is in the top three of this race. Is 3 years older than field average and would be better running over 7-8f nowadays. No bet though
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Michael231
Gelding
Fast track Harry has it on the ratings although Beauty Destiny has the better form figure, but as the rating for Fast track Harry is so far ahead I think he will prevail.
| time | course | horse | form | class | rating |
18:30 | Newcastle | Albasheer | 28 | 9 | 54.1 |
18:30 | Newcastle | Golden Redemption | 41 | 9 | 80 |
18:30 | Newcastle | William Dewhirst | 46 | 9 | 67.7 |
18:30 | Newcastle | Beauty Destiny | 54 | 9 | 74.7 |
18:30 | Newcastle | Paddys Day | 38 | 9 | 63.1 |
18:30 | Newcastle | We Never Stop | 10 | 9 | 37.3 |
18:30 | Newcastle | Fast Track Harry | 44 | 9 | 103 |
18:30 | Newcastle | Stratusnine | 29 | 9 | 54.1 |
18:30 | Newcastle | Heavenly Heather | 47 | 9 | 86 |
Jackform
Mare
A class 2 all-aged hcap over 6f going forecast Standard with 7 runners where the form is generally poor although the early market indicates it as an open contest. I would go Fast Track Harry followed by Heavenly Heather 1 pt each.
Fine Form master formula RP data.
1. 2 = 25/1 (MY fair tissue) (6/1 mkt 3.15)
2. 3 = 16/1 (12/1)
3. 15 = 5/2 (15/8) Fast Track Harry
4. 13 = 3/1 (11/2) Heavenly Heather
5. 3 = 16/1 (9/2)
6. 9 = 5/1 (4/1)
8. 7 =13/2 (33/1)
At The Races in comparison.
FAST TRACK HARRY still has few miles on the clock and showed the benefit of a gelding operation during the off-season when making a successful comeback at Lingfield. He looks ready to take the next step this year and could even make up into a Pattern performer. Heavenly Heather is showing no signs of a busy winter campaign taking its toll and went close over the minimum trip here. This distance suits just as well and she is a big threat, while it won't be the biggest surprise if We Never Stop rediscovers some sparkle.
Top Tip: Fast Track Harry (3)
Watch out for: Heavenly Heather (4)
Fine Form master formula RP data.
1. 2 = 25/1 (MY fair tissue) (6/1 mkt 3.15)
2. 3 = 16/1 (12/1)
3. 15 = 5/2 (15/8) Fast Track Harry
4. 13 = 3/1 (11/2) Heavenly Heather
5. 3 = 16/1 (9/2)
6. 9 = 5/1 (4/1)
8. 7 =13/2 (33/1)
At The Races in comparison.
FAST TRACK HARRY still has few miles on the clock and showed the benefit of a gelding operation during the off-season when making a successful comeback at Lingfield. He looks ready to take the next step this year and could even make up into a Pattern performer. Heavenly Heather is showing no signs of a busy winter campaign taking its toll and went close over the minimum trip here. This distance suits just as well and she is a big threat, while it won't be the biggest surprise if We Never Stop rediscovers some sparkle.
Top Tip: Fast Track Harry (3)
Watch out for: Heavenly Heather (4)
Expert View Verdict
A good-quality sprint handicap that can go to FAST TRACK HARRY, who reappeared with a good win at Lingfield and still appeals as being well treated off 3lb higher. His trainer is a dab hand with his sprinters and this one is capable of further progress. Golden Redemption returns from 180 days off for his top yard with the potential to make a smart handicapper this season. He had some useful form on turf last season having started out on the dirt in Dubai. Heavenly Heather likes it here whether it be 5f or 6f and she should again go well although her latest 4lb rise may leave her vulnerable.1-2-3 Selections
- Fast Track Harry (3)
- Golden Redemption (9)
- Heavenly Heather (4)
DuckandDive
Mare
Fast Track Harry @ 3.15+ (Min Odds 3.00) and 2 Lay bets (We Never Stop/Beauty Destiny).
FTH since being gelded, has had a change of attitude (mind would too), so likely more improvement with only 7 runs under its belt.
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Here's how the overall profit looked taking into account both Back and Lays.
FTH since being gelded, has had a change of attitude (mind would too), so likely more improvement with only 7 runs under its belt.
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Here's how the overall profit looked taking into account both Back and Lays.
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DuckandDive
Mare
Michael231
Gelding
Yes well done all that had it
This is what i have so far .
Win
Mar 2117:43 Southwell
3 Great
Total stake:
£2.00
21/Mar/26
Bet ref: 40256230
Win
Mar 2117:43 Southwell
2 Blazing Son
Total stake:
£3.00
21/Mar/26
Bet ref: 40256224
Win
Mar 2117:43 Southwell
11 King Of York
Total stake:
£5.00
21/Mar/26
Bet ref: 40256216
Ratings & Tissue Prices
| Horse | Rating (/100) | Tissue Odds | Implied % |
|---|---|---|---|
| King Of York | 82 | 3.5 (5/2) | 28.5% |
| Blazing Son | 71 | 5.5 (9/2) | 18.0% |
| Great | 74* | 5.0 (4/1) | 20.0% |
| Ash Wednesday | 65 | 8.0 (7/1) | 12.5% |
| Thurso | 62 | 10.0 (9/1) | 10.0% |
| Al Muqdad | 60 | 11.0 (10/1) | 9.0% |
| Chesneys Charm | 64 | 8.5 (15/2) | 11.5% |
| Grabajabba | 61 | 10.0 (9/1) | 10.0% |
| Stoneywell | 50 (est) | 20.0 (19/1) | 5.0% |
| Too Sweet | 52 (est) | 16.0 (15/1) | 6.2% |
| Sea Suite | 45 | 26.0 (25/1) | 3.8% |
| Habdi | 42 | 34.0 (33/1) | 2.9% |
How I built this (quick insight)
- Weighted PRBs:
- Distance (30%)
- Field (25%)
- Class (20%)
- Going (15%)
- Course (10%)
- Adjusted for:
- Sample size (penalised low runs)
- Consistency across columns
True Value Table (Your Tissue vs Market)
| Horse | My Odds | Market Odds | Edge | Value Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Of York | 3.5 | 6.0 | +71% |  ELITE |
| Blazing Son | 5.5 | 11.0 | +100% | ELITE |
| Great | 5.0 | 8.0 | +60% | Strong |
| Chesneys Charm | 8.5 | 13.0 | +53% | Solid |
| Ash Wednesday | 8.0 | 12.0 | +50% | Solid |
| Thurso | 10.0 | 13.0 | +30% | Mild |
| Al Muqdad | 11.0 | 12.0 | +9% | Marginal |
| Grabajabba | 10.0 | 9.0 |  -10% | No value |
| Too Sweet | 16.0 | 7.0 | -56% | BAD |
| Habdi | 34.0 | 6.0 | -82% | TERRIBLE |
| Sea Suite | 26.0 | 13.0 | -50% | BAD |
| Stoneywell | 20.0 | 26.0 | +30% | Speculative |
Option B (value maximiser)
- Split stakes:
- 50% King Of York
- 30% Blazing Son
- 20% Great
Win
Mar 2117:43 Southwell
Total stake:
£2.00
21/Mar/26
Bet ref: 40256230
Win
Mar 2117:43 Southwell
Total stake:
£3.00
21/Mar/26
Bet ref: 40256224
Win
Mar 2117:43 Southwell
Total stake:
£5.00
21/Mar/26
Bet ref: 40256216
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DuckandDive
Mare
Competitive race overall. Any of top 4 rated could win. I'd side with Grabajabba 7.80+ and Ash Wednesday 5.40+ (market move)
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Pace maps similar, apart from Ash Wednesday, that might kick on from an even pace.
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Pace maps similar, apart from Ash Wednesday, that might kick on from an even pace.
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Jackform
Mare
Officially a Class 5 all-aged extended sprint hcap over 7f on going forecast standard with 12 ruuners. It's not really 'cos it's a race bsed on form as the handicapper only had a range of 11lbs to work with. Not only that it's unbalanced as no's 1 to 9 are in the top third. Just rated with a Fine Form master formuto come to some conclusions.
Southwell (Standard) Top track yard M Appleby
5.43 Early mkt expected 2.05pm no's 7, 1, 8, 6, 3, 2 indicating a win restricted to these.
Fine Form master formula rating
12. 14 = 10/3 (MY fair tissue) (12/1 mkt) from RP online data. Habrdi
2. 13 = 7/2 (9/1) Blazing Sun
11. 9 = 11/2 (12/1)
1. 8 = 7/1 (5/1) M Appleby yard
7. 7 = 15/2 (7/2)
MY comment: Can't see my way through it so will have to go Habrdi then Blazing Sun
At The Races advice in comparison
Ash Wednesday is worth a second glance with two wins from four starts here. Too Sweet makes her handicap debut after finishing second at Chelmsford over a year ago and is an interesting contender, though BLAZING SON seems a more sensible call. Beaten into second at Newcastle last time, he has won off his current mark before and also has two Southwell victories to his name.
Top Tip: Blazing Son (2)
Watch out for: Too Sweet (10)
Southwell (Standard) Top track yard M Appleby
5.43 Early mkt expected 2.05pm no's 7, 1, 8, 6, 3, 2 indicating a win restricted to these.
Fine Form master formula rating
12. 14 = 10/3 (MY fair tissue) (12/1 mkt) from RP online data. Habrdi
2. 13 = 7/2 (9/1) Blazing Sun
11. 9 = 11/2 (12/1)
1. 8 = 7/1 (5/1) M Appleby yard
7. 7 = 15/2 (7/2)
MY comment: Can't see my way through it so will have to go Habrdi then Blazing Sun
At The Races advice in comparison
Ash Wednesday is worth a second glance with two wins from four starts here. Too Sweet makes her handicap debut after finishing second at Chelmsford over a year ago and is an interesting contender, though BLAZING SON seems a more sensible call. Beaten into second at Newcastle last time, he has won off his current mark before and also has two Southwell victories to his name.
Top Tip: Blazing Son (2)
Watch out for: Too Sweet (10)
Expert View Verdict
ASH WEDNESDAY hasn't won in a while but he did gain 6 victories over 7f on tapeta last winter and has now dropped 2lb below his last winning mark. He hinted at better last time running well for a long way until his fitness gave out. If building on that he can defeat in form course specialist King Of York who was too keen at 1m last time and will appreciate this drop back in trip. Al Muqdad is tricky to win with but the handicapper is beginning to relent and he looks well treated on his best winter form. If getting a decent test he can also make his presence felt.1-2-3 Selections
- Ash Wednesday (7)
- King Of York (11)
- Al Muqdad (6)
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Michael231
Gelding
Been busy with a pet project for the racing so not put anything up today til now.
Here are my ratings for the race. And am with the two top. Blazing son and King of york in that order.
Here are my ratings for the race. And am with the two top. Blazing son and King of york in that order.
| time | course | horse | form | class | rated |
17:43 | Southwell | Blazing Son | 42 | 6 | 74.2 |
17:43 | Southwell | Chesneys Charm | 33 | 6 | 51.7 |
17:43 | Southwell | Thurso | 31 | 6 | 53.7 |
17:43 | Southwell | Al Muqdad | 30 | 6 | 53.1 |
17:43 | Southwell | Ash Wednesday | 42 | 6 | 67.1 |
17:43 | Southwell | King Of York | 45 | 6 | 73.5 |
17:43 | Southwell | Habrdi | 23 | 6 | 53.3 |
17:43 | Southwell | Great | 32 | 6 | 55.5 |
17:43 | Southwell | Stoneywell | 16 | 6 | 29.9 |
17:43 | Southwell | Sea Suite | 28 | 6 | 46.7 |
17:43 | Southwell | Too Sweet | 15 | 6 | 38.5 |
17:43 | Southwell | Grabajabba | 32 | 6 | 59.1 |