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Trainer & Jockeys - Only Runner That Day - Is it significant?

MrT

Filly
Cheers pete pete - i'm no statistician myself and i don't know about a "pot of gold" - most days i'm thankful for a pot of soup!:)
The idea to track "layoffs" came from your homeland and i use the same template as your claims - 1st run after , 2nd run after etc up to the 4th run at various layoff (days since) brackets - P Bowen attached - big improvers on the fourth run after a layoff - R4
View attachment 57255
Although maybe out of context but when it comes to P BOWEN its worth looking at APRIL, MAY, JUNE as he as done very well since 2012 except for 1 year. Also you have 2 years were the S/RATES are near identical as shown below and 1 of those the bad year over that period]

The stats used are for both JUMPS & FLAT over that period.


2016 80/15 S/R 18.8 LOSS 11PTS
2017 74/14 S/R 18.9% YET A PROFIT OF 37PTS

All the other years in profit but this goes to show its impossible what prices to expect and if those found are higher enough to gain a profit as these 2 years show.

I just thought it might be another angle worth looking at when it comes to P BOWEN

T
 

ARAZI91

Gelding
Although maybe out of context but when it comes to P BOWEN its worth looking at APRIL, MAY, JUNE as he as done very well since 2012 except for 1 year. Also you have 2 years were the S/RATES are near identical as shown below and 1 of those the bad year over that period]

The stats used are for both JUMPS & FLAT over that period.


2016 80/15 S/R 18.8 LOSS 11PTS
2017 74/14 S/R 18.9% YET A PROFIT OF 37PTS

All the other years in profit but this goes to show its impossible what prices to expect and if those found are higher enough to gain a profit as these 2 years show.

I just thought it might be another angle worth looking at when it comes to P BOWEN

T
MrT MrT - yes Bowen does a lot of damage here - Win % wise the months are May , June , July & August , although is profitable in April.
Usually factored into the market (especially SP /Bookmakers) though nowadays especially with the bigger names , although in Bowen's case here , not enough by the looks of it.
This is from 2003 onwards - all codes
P Bowen - Months.PNG
Most medium to large scale trainers have some sort of seasonal bias or pattern to their operation.
 

MrT

Filly
In my mind always been more of a SUMMER trainer and like you say some TRAINERS do far better in certain months than others

I used to have saved stats on the massey site years ago and the press of a button gave me any for the day but that was back then when I was a lot younger even though I still use his data as I know it inside out.

I love stats but even they change and some that did well for 5 years on the trot can go the other way and when it comes to 2 & 3 YR olds on the TURF it may well depend on those he as this coming season which may or may not be as good as in the PAST.

Thanks for the input as mine was based on 2012 till 2017 and he did have a good 2017.

Thanks again

T
 

ARAZI91

Gelding
In my mind always been more of a SUMMER trainer and like you say some TRAINERS do far better in certain months than others

I used to have saved stats on the massey site years ago and the press of a button gave me any for the day but that was back then when I was a lot younger even though I still use his data as I know it inside out.

I love stats but even they change and some that did well for 5 years on the trot can go the other way and when it comes to 2 & 3 YR olds on the TURF it may well depend on those he as this coming season which may or may not be as good as in the PAST.

Thanks for the input as mine was based on 2012 till 2017 and he did have a good 2017.

Thanks again

T
M Mr T T - Would agree here about regression in stats and also the time period they are contained in. I always like to see some sort of confirmation of recency - if it's a trainer type move or stat - is it still relevant to his operation?. I think these days you have a few options regarding stats , you can either compile your own from a raw data source and / or try and interpret them differently. Or you can completely ignore them. The third option is if you believe that most published stats within traditional factors and variables are priced up in the market - bet against them. mick mick has opened my peepers on here to this time and again with his "trainerthink" mentality and it comes through in his excellent write ups. Many times i have seen him pose a question regarding a certain horse from the mind of a trainer and ask "would you?" and answer it if he were the trainer. If you were in charge of a betting stable and going for a touch would you really want your horses profiled and contained within a nice neat % for all to see? - I would'nt:)
 
Surely the trainers don't like people who profile horses, although sometimes they make friends of journalists (because the press too has some power !).
A friend of mine used to visit a stable he was acquainted with and he says the trainer told him once "don't let me ever catch you in here with a stopwatch in your pocket".
I explained you some jockey stats I want and there is also another stat: What happens when a horse is switched to a higher level jockey or from the stable's second hand to the stable's first hand ? With the higher level of jockeymanship the chances increase but do they increase by more than the nominal margin ?
My dad was an expert in jockey stats, but he never quite told me what he was doing.
He was winning many times and one or two times he asked me to bet for him from inside the race course, because the local shops were on strike.
I was astounded by the results.
 

MrT

Filly
Theirs no doubt this as turned into a very debatable thread and in many ways its the trainer who knows the true potential of the horses he his training and if one of the TOP TEN were to place his horses and bring them to peak fitness for a specific race even though previous runs may suggest otherwise. He may even give an interview on TV and maybe asked about his runners today and may well give a winner but if a gabling stable the money would already be on anyway. Also how much influence do some OWNERS have on the races they wish their horses to run in.

Even so some trainers do peak in certain months or similar races every year.

T
 

Sigster

Gelding
Rather than start a new thread im resurrecting an old one here as it’s something I’m taking a bit of an interest in currently although perhaps taking a slightly different approach than the one that was originally intended as the purpose of the thread. I’ve been using the HRB short cuts and although early days , and I mean REALLY early days there is potentially something in there, but as always it’s a often down to interpretation.

Looking at the one runner on the day stat for today(HRB) there are 107 different trainers with one runner today. Have to say Clonmel does account for 39 of these and if I’m honest looking at the detail I’d be inclined to disregard them all. The average SP of horses going on the NH at Clonmel over the last few years tells you everything you need to know about the chances of most of the fields....

Having seen the frankly huge number to start with I decided to use a different shortcut that takes you to a jockey/trainer combo of both only having one interest at the track. Again a frankly surprisingly high number of 54 runners and riders, but taking the same attitude with Clonmel reduces this to 36. What I did today was cross reference this list with The HRB ratings , again through the shortcuts looking at Ratings and Top Rated and looked for horses that appeared in both lists. This gives a much more manageable shortlist although what I’m doing with this at the moment is where the debate lies. Not all trainers are amongst the well known but does that make them any less likely to be attempting to land a touch? On the other hand they will have less in their equine armoury so are more likely to only have one runner...

Certainly not a system as it stands in its present form... more of a method that opens up to interpretation. I’ll be keeping an eye on these and seeing how they pan out, and perhaps seeing if there’s a different/better way of using the information. Perhaps adding a third factor, maybe attempting to read the race, maybe using a different set of ratings... but for now it’s a starting point to get back involved...
 

eeyore

Yearling
Rather than start a new thread im resurrecting an old one here as it’s something I’m taking a bit of an interest in currently although perhaps taking a slightly different approach than the one that was originally intended as the purpose of the thread. I’ve been using the HRB short cuts and although early days , and I mean REALLY early days there is potentially something in there, but as always it’s a often down to interpretation.

Looking at the one runner on the day stat for today(HRB) there are 107 different trainers with one runner today. Have to say Clonmel does account for 39 of these and if I’m honest looking at the detail I’d be inclined to disregard them all. The average SP of horses going on the NH at Clonmel over the last few years tells you everything you need to know about the chances of most of the fields....

Having seen the frankly huge number to start with I decided to use a different shortcut that takes you to a jockey/trainer combo of both only having one interest at the track. Again a frankly surprisingly high number of 54 runners and riders, but taking the same attitude with Clonmel reduces this to 36. What I did today was cross reference this list with The HRB ratings , again through the shortcuts looking at Ratings and Top Rated and looked for horses that appeared in both lists. This gives a much more manageable shortlist although what I’m doing with this at the moment is where the debate lies. Not all trainers are amongst the well known but does that make them any less likely to be attempting to land a touch? On the other hand they will have less in their equine armoury so are more likely to only have one runner...

Certainly not a system as it stands in its present form... more of a method that opens up to interpretation. I’ll be keeping an eye on these and seeing how they pan out, and perhaps seeing if there’s a different/better way of using the information. Perhaps adding a third factor, maybe attempting to read the race, maybe using a different set of ratings... but for now it’s a starting point to get back involved...
hello just read your post i use to know a oap who use to swear by one trainer one horse a day but he also use to look at how far they travel and if the jockey had only one ride and the strike rate as a example there was one Saturday Miss Lucinda v Russell sent one horse to Uttoxeter 2nd at 16/1 sorry have not kept records
 

eeyore

Yearling
hello just read your post i use to know a oap who use to swear by one trainer one horse a day but he also use to look at how far they travel and if the jockey had only one ride and the strike rate as a example there was one Saturday Miss Lucinda v Russell sent one horse to Uttoxeter 2nd at 16/1 sorry have not kept records
 

eeyore

Yearling
hello all been looking at my scrapbook and i use to have trainer and stable jockey one ride and runner just looked at card tomorrow
13.45 Ludlow apache creek Jonjo Oneill and son on board trainer has another runner at Chepstow which would be main meeting and horse 2nd fav this one jockey riding fav at 13/8 also the jockey of the year Racheal Blackmore has several rides at cork but Henry De Bromhead has only one runner 16.35 cork bold assassin 10/30 also on the subject of P Bowen i use to follow him in the Topham at Aintree happy days
good luck what ever you do
 

Chesham

Sire
Using V4

add Trainer One Runner on Day and for Jockey One Ride on day (I would suggest using 2017 to 2021 as you will get T/J who are not around anymore)

33A83552-1CB7-42AC-83A2-A0A4358562D8.jpeg
Now use the Dig function and repeat the above

F94D6411-7EF6-4303-9EA5-3205F6B07B91.jpeg
This will bring up a list of T/J combinations (The actual list is a lot longer than the screen shot below)

AAC743BB-7100-45CC-BB1D-7251234E6AE8.jpeg
 

mattyboy

Yearling
I think this kind of thing can be highly significant. But maybe you have to put the situation into context?. For example, John Gosden having one runner at Newmarket being ridden by Nicky Mackay, on a day when he sends three horses to York being ridden by Frankie, is hardly an ringing endorsement of the Newmarket runner's chances., (not to say it won;t win necessarily, of course).
However, Hollie Doyle riding one Tony Carroll horse on a Wolves evening card in class 5 handicap worth £3.5k to the winner, on a day when Archie Watson has three runners at Newbury and none at Wolves, means the Hollie Doyle ridden horse is likely to have a very good chance. And you could also get rewarding odds if the horse in question was not ridden by the jockey recently, and is in poor form.
 

mattyboy

Yearling
Thanks Chesham Chesham i have been trying for ages to do a 1 ride 1 runner system on HRB but couldn't work out how to do it properly, so thank you for pointing me in the right direction. I understand figures will be skewed in these covid times with jockeys only allowed to ride at 1 meeting a day but thanks again Chesham Chesham
I think the one meeting a day rule is one of the very decent things to have come out of Covid, and should remain in the future.. It must give more chances to young apprentice jockeys, whilst leading to less burnout for jockeys that would otherwise regularly travel between meetings each day.
 

mattyboy

Yearling
Thanks Chesham Chesham i have been trying for ages to do a 1 ride 1 runner system on HRB but couldn't work out how to do it properly, so thank you for pointing me in the right direction. I understand figures will be skewed in these covid times with jockeys only allowed to ride at 1 meeting a day but thanks again Chesham Chesham
Only one meeting a day for jockeys must be one of the very few positive initiatives brought about due to Covid, in my opinion. Giving more chances to apprentices, whilst hopefully causing less burnout amongst leading jockeys. Hopefully this rule will remain in place long after the Covid restrictions become an awful memory.
 

eeyore

Yearling
quick look at card tomorrow these caught my eye
Silvestre travel to Chelmsford for one ride 19.50 adace 7/1
R Johnson travel to Uttoxeter for one ride 14.40 Guernesey 9/1 and P J Hobbs have other runners at other meeting
Nico de Bonville travel to Uttoxeter for one ride 16.45 Marmalaid 11/4 for N j Henderson only runner unraced and trainer has fancy at other meeting be lucky what ever you do
 

eeyore

Yearling
quick look at card tomorrow these caught my eye
Silvestre travel to Chelmsford for one ride 19.50 adace 7/1
R Johnson travel to Uttoxeter for one ride 14.40 Guernesey 9/1 and P J Hobbs have other runners at other meeting
Nico de Bonville travel to Uttoxeter for one ride 16.45 Marmalaid 11/4 for N j Henderson only runner unraced and trainer has fancy at other meeting be lucky what ever you do
Nico de Bonville travel to Plumpton for one ride 3.55 pistol whipped 8/1 for N j Henderson only runner and trainer has fancy at other meeting be lucky what ever you do
 
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