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Today's bets

It is a very poor selection of racing for this Monday. It will do no
harm for anybody to keep their money safely ensconced in their
wallets and purses.
Although there is a clear selection in the 2.55 at Kempton this is
not a betting race as such. The 1.35 at Ayr does provide a betting
opportunity;-

Curramore 111
Saivgotachoyal 124
Foster's Island 110
Red Missile 116
Lock Down Luke 111
Pitemion Power 116

The best rating is with Saivgotachoyal, but caution needs to be exercised
here since the rating is based upon extrapolated form of two that have
competed against Saivgotachoyal. I did say that it is a poor days racing.

The 3.25 at Kempton may offer the best opportunity for established form :-

Paso Doble 135
See the Sea 123
Timboman 129
Just the man 130
Sm of red 131

The 5/2 favourite Paso Doble is the clear selection. I am not satisfied that this
warrants a bet though since the 2nd, 3rd and 4th selections are so close to each
other to enlarge the number of threats to the favourite.
This method always works best when there are noticeable gaps between 1 and 2 and
2 and 3.
 
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After the winner of the 1.35 at Ayr turned out to be the worst ranked of all,
it may be time to put this method to bed until the week-end when the racing
is of a much higher quality.

I have another method in my armoury. It is basically based upon notes that
I have made over the last few weeks concerning racing at individual tracks. For
instance I noted that 3 year olds had a significant advantage when racing in
handicaps at Wolverhampton. If this is the case then Oz should be defeating
Dank in tonight's 6.30. I have also had a try at rating on the AW, and rate
Oz at 83 and Dank at 79.

Based on previous notes that I have made concerning racing at Sedgfield, here
previous experience of the track does seem important. Weight does not seem too
important at Sedgfield and for some reason there seems to be some correlation with
good form shown at Perth.
In chases 7 year olds seem to have an advantage so for this reason and for those outlined
above, Six One Nine should be winning the 1.45 at Sedgfield.
 
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I have had one small scale winner at Wetherby so far today.
For lovers of the AW the 7.40 at Kempton looks an absolute
cracker.

The four principals have been rated as follows:-

Misty Grey 97
Pistolet 90
Stormy Antartic 90
Kenzai Warrior 85

Pistolet falls down significantly in ORs and weight difference of the race
on which the rating is based and today's ask. Pistolet scores heavily upon
race value competed for and today's ask. It is on this latter point that both
Stormy Antartic and Kenzai Warrior fall out of the equation since neither
have shown the form to ensure that they are live contenders for this £31k
prize. Misty Grey is consistent throughout all the processes consistently
coming second upon each, so Misty Grey is the clear selection for the 7.40
at Kempton.
 
I have found a reasonable amount of form in recent days so I
am hoping that it will continue onto this forum :-

4.00 at Wolverhampton

There is a clear selection in this race. There are four main contenders.
Some Nightmare would appear to run better on a traditional surface.
Daley Express looks to be on the downgrade. Show me a Sunset certainly
has the ability to win this race, but of the four it is also the one that has
shown the worst form on this surface (it has clearly run some good races too).
Which leaves the consistent Expert Opinion as the selection.

1.43 at Doncaster

Constancio is the best horse in this field, but there is some belief that this horse
performs better on a right handed track. Little Owl was on course to winning its
last race before falling, unpenalised it has the best form to win this race and is the
selection.

1.15 at Newbury

With only a few seconds to go before this race the e.w. selection is Espoir de Taille.
 
I'm just moving along very slowly at the moment.
From last night I made three selections. Looking
at the form in the morning there is little to put me
off any of the selections.
I am not sure if it is a good point, but all the selections
were available at greater odds on Betfair last night
than they currently appear.

12.40 Sandown Empressive Lady @ 15/2
For a short time last night double digit odds were
available about this one.

1.22 Chepstow Colorado Doc @ 6/1
Little movement in the market concerning Colorado Doc.

1.15 Sandown
City Derby @11/2
Again 8/1 was available last night about this good sort.

The selections have been found by reviving a NH method that was used
previously, which proved successful two years ago.
 
Back again in time for Christmas.
I have a lot of respect for the tips shown on a free internet site
so I am very pleased that in two of the races where I have made
selections not only are they in agreement about the selection, they
also agree upon the second rated selection too.
These are my ratings :-

2.00 Newbury

Chilli Filli 259
Silver Forever 210

3.15 Leicester

Rosy World 217
Storm of Light 174

The race in which there is disagreement is the 2.25 at Lingfield.

Camachees 137
Pablo del Pueblo 127
Portlet Bay 109

Here the tipping site shows Pablo del Pueblo as being first with
Durdle Door as being the danger.
 
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The 5.00 at Southwell looks an interesting race from a form perspective :-

Onesmoothoperator

Up 6lbs in weight for a 3ls beating over 1m 4fs at Wolverhampton.
This race had a slightly higher profile than today's being a race in
which the topweight ran off 85 against today's 81.

Khilwafa

Won a weak Southwell maiden as shown by the distribution of weights
9.1 to 9.9. The more fancied horses that finished in the places in this race
had done little on the racetrack previously.

Cherokee Dance

Showed good form at Kempton when finishing second to the useful
Prettysweetthing. The favourite won as expected. This was a significant
improvement in form upon the previous win at Wolverhampton
in a banded class. At Kempton the market respected the chance of
Cherokee Dance installing the horse as 5/2 second favourite. Again,
this was a significant improvement upon its previous outing at
Wolverhampton when winning at odds of 28/1.

The selection is Cherokee Dance.
 
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First posting of the year, and let it be a successful one. For me the most annoying
thing concerning racing is when you make your own ratings concentrating upon
the first five or six fancied ones and then you find that the winner is one that you
have not even considered. Looking back at its form you then ask yourself
"how the heck could I have missed that ?" On the AW this has happened far too
often for me this season to be well beyond a coincidence.

Anyhow, there are some very decent NH races to concentrate upon this Saturday.
The 1.50 at Sandown should be between two horses who have almost identical
scores upon the ratings, these being Up the Straight and Numator. A case can also
be made for the favourite in Gunfight Ridge. When looking at what is known as the
"true ratings" a different picture begins to emerge. Here, Up the Straight powers away
with a rating of 135. Numator has 125 whilst Gunfight Ridge has 128.
Up the Straight is the selection.

The 3.35 at Sandown looks a more open race. I do not like either of Herne Bay or Zambesi Fix.
The two to emerge as being best in the ratings are Mack the Man and Volkova. A strong
case can also certainly be made for Navajo Pass. Navajo Pass scores well in both ratings, but
I can't help but think that one or two of the younger horses are going to progress beyond
this grand old stager. On the grounds that Mack the Man is likely to show most improvement
of any horse in the field I make Mack the likely winner of this race.
 
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I have done quite well in recent days upon NH bets but the AW
continues to be a major draw upon resources.

The 2.45 at Wincanton looks a good race to rate :-

Forget You Not 95
Majestic Merlin 88
Clear On Top 87

Askinvillar looks an interesting contender since its hurdles form
gives it a rating of 93. What is not known about this contender
is how good a chaser the horse is since it is making its chase debut.
There is a saying in racing circles "never back a horse to do what it
has not done before." Only the stable will know the real chance
concerning Askinvillar.

The top rated Forget You Not is another very interesting contender. Both
of the chase wins of Forget You Not have come in the South of England.
The horse has already won a race at the Somerset based Wincanton, so
it does look a good proposition for victory today.
 
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P primrose4 While i like and use the saying you quote i suspect that applied without a degree of flexibility we would find ourselves not backing any or at best confined to short priced picks. Best of for Forget You Not i cannot contribute anything of use but do like the name. :)
 
Good luck P primrose4 what has stopped me betting in the race is Tamgho Borget who beat Unanswered Prayers in a ptp. With Unanswered Prayers rated 125, albeit over hurdles, that 74 that Tamgho Borget has got could mean hes got 50lbs in hand. American Gerry was a couple of lengths back in the point and hes rated 116.

What it does mean that Forget You Not is a backable price as it looks like the tongue tie and the quicker ground has been the key. Hope he wins for you.
 
Lingfield 4.45 Thursday (yesterday)

Intervention

A pretty unlucky run getting left in the stalls and then the jockey appeared to panic, and didn't get a clear run either.

I know Benoit is just back after a suspension and I think he is pretty talented so hopefully he will learn from yesterday's calamity.

The horse was entitled to go close, but as we all know bookies don't pay out on unlucky losers.
 
Thomas said:
Lingfield 4.45 Thursday (yesterday)

Intervention

A pretty unlucky run getting left in the stalls and then the jockey appeared to panic, and didn't get a clear run either.

I know Benoit is just back after a suspension and I think he is pretty talented so hopefully he will learn from yesterday's calamity.

The horse was entitled to go close, but as we all know bookies don't pay out on unlucky losers.
Click to expand...
The Stewards noted that INTERVENTION, placed fifth, had momentarily gotten its nose stuck in the grill shortly before the stalls opened and as a result was slowly away.
 
Thomas said:
I know Benoit is just back after a suspension and I think he is pretty talented so hopefully he will learn from yesterday's calamity.
Click to expand...
Agree and as i recall he was trusted with the ride and produced the goods in last years Lincoln.
 
I should think that most people in the country will have an opinion
upon the Grand National. In many ways I am glad that I delayed my
selection to the final day. Last week I was very keen upon the chances
of Snow Leopardess. Before Cheltenham I was convinced that Fiddler On
the Roof was the one to be on, being a beaten favourite last time out too.

I think that Two for Gold has a major chance for the resurgent Kim Bailey.
However, Two for Gold is conceeding 11lbs to Eclair Surf and I believe that
this task will be beyond him. Eclair Surf ticks many of the boxes of previous
National winners. The horse has already mopped up two Nationals this season.
Like many other National winners the horse is carrying less weight than it will
in the future, being raised in the official handicap above what the horse is
carrying in the National.

Many people will be very keen to support the Irish contingent in the Grand National
due to their dominance at Cheltenham. For many years in the National, Irish horses
were ignored since the race was seen as a best of British race. The success of the too
lightly weighted Bobby Jo seemed to change that and in recent years the race has
been kind to the Irish contingent. I believe that the four British horses named above
are capable of repelling the Irish challenge.
 
A very quick posting.

The 5.48 at Hamilton contains a horse that has received mentions
that it may be soon time to start raising it in class if it continues in
the same vein of form as shown in previous races, where the horse is
clearly on an upward curve.

The horse in question is Ballet Steps. I have backed this horse to win.
The main negative is the somewhat large number of rivals. I am sure
this race will contain hard luck stories about horses getting boxed in etc.
If Ballet Steps gets the breaks I am sure that it is good enough to win.
 
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