Today's All Weather Racing

[Dave]

I’ve taken a look at the data for the 17:30 at Wolverhampton today (Tuesday, March 17th, 2026), and honestly, at 10/1, there’s plenty to like about an Each-Way shout.

Here’s how I see the race shaping up for her:

Why White Umbrella (10/1) Is Catching the Eye

She’s currently a 10/1 shot (though some firms are at 8/1 or 9/1), and there’s a strong argument that she’s better than those odds suggest.


• The "Eyecatcher" Performance: Looking at the raceIQ style analysis of her last run (March 2nd), she was a massive 40/1 outsider but ran a huge race to finish 3rd. She was "strong at the finish" over 6f, suggesting that stepping back up to 7f today is exactly what she wants.


• Course Specialist: She loves it here. She has four career wins at Wolverhampton, including a victory over this exact course and distance (C&D) last summer off a mark of 57.


Ratings & Handicapping: The Racing Post (RPR) and At The Races experts have given her a 5-star rating for this race, noting she was beaten only 1.5 lengths last time off a 1lb higher mark. She’s essentially running off a very dangerous handicap mark of 64 today.

• The "Jason Hart" Factor: Having Jason Hart in the saddle is a major plus, he knows her well and was on board for her improved effort last time out.


The Competition
It’s a competitive Class 6, and you’ll need to watch out for a few others:

• Yehudi (4/1): The likely favorite with Billy Loughnane up. Very consistent but often finds one or two too good. Badly drawn.

• Al Hofzan (6/1): Coming off a tiny nose defeat over C&D. He’s the main danger if he reproduces that form.

• Orbital Chime (13/2): Timeform's top pick, largely because the trainer (James Owen) is excellent with new recruits.


My Verdict
White Umbrella looks like a fantastic Each-Way play. She’s a "horses for courses" type who showed she’s back in form with that cracking run a fortnight ago. The step up to 7f should allow her to use that late finishing speed more effectively.

My Bets
White Umbrella EW @ 10/1

 

[JennyK]

White Umbrella

Four handicap wins so far on the aw, as follows:

17/11/23 field average OR 53.8, off 55
29/04/24 field average OR 56.0, off 60
03/06/25 field average OR 56.4, off 57
16/06/25 field average OR 56.4, off 61

The profile of a modest improver from 4yo to 6yo.

Today, now a 7yo, White Umbrella is in a race where the field average OR is 61.0 and she runs off 64. Can she win?

On the one hand, on my ratings her last run (02/03/26) was her best ever handicap performance, she won't have to improve much on that to win today and that run was the best most recent performance in today's field. On the other, she went off at 40/1, 8th in the betting in a field of nine which suggests, though of course does not prove, that the performance was a surprise to connections and she is up in both class and OR on her best win to date.

It will be interesting to see how well White Umbrella runs today. I am doubtful whether she will match, still less improve on, her 02/03/26 performance and will be surprised if at least one of the 4yos doesn't finish in front of her.

 

[Kraldrew]

Al Hofzan​	4-2​	12​	65​	70​	65​	0​	0​	2​	2​	34​	3​
Terries Royale​	6-8​	0​	64​	58​	68​	3​	3​	1​	1​	23​	7​
White Umbrella​	6-3​	6​	64​	68​	47​	0​	0​	4​	4​	27.9​	5​
Cill Mocheallog​	0-9​	0​	64​	47​	62​	0​	0​	0​	0​	17.3​	10​
Sofian​	1-2​	18​	63​	60​	65​	0​	0​	0​	0​	36.8​	2​
Yehudi​	5-2​	10​	62​	68​	62​	1​	1​	17​	17​	47.2​	1​
Orbital Chime​	8-9​	0​	62​	44​	53​	5​	5​	2​	2​	22.9​	8​
Good Karma​	5-3​	8​	58​	62​	58​	0​	0​	2​	2​	27.8​	6​
Simply Blue​	9-2​	8​	55​	62​	56​	5​	5​	0​	0​	30.3​	4​
Swiss Ace​	7-6​	0​	53​	40​	55​	2​	2​	2​	2​	18.8​	9​

 

[Kraldrew]

Have just Analyzed the race Yehudi ranked 1 though was given a big boost with Jocky rating but does have a lto 68 RPr so will be in the Mix i should think .
Sofian 2nd Ranked through a 1st and 2nd on the flat will his form transfer to Tapeta
Al Hofzan Boosts a 70 RPr last race so could be the 1 to beat .
Have had a point each on Al Hofzan and Yehudi

 

[Sullybomb]

I’ve taken a look at the data for the 17:30 at Wolverhampton today (Tuesday, March 17th, 2026), and honestly, at 10/1, there’s plenty to like about an Each-Way shout.

Here’s how I see the race shaping up for her:

Why White Umbrella (10/1) Is Catching the Eye

She’s currently a 10/1 shot (though some firms are at 8/1 or 9/1), and there’s a strong argument that she’s better than those odds suggest.


• The "Eyecatcher" Performance: Looking at the raceIQ style analysis of her last run (March 2nd), she was a massive 40/1 outsider but ran a huge race to finish 3rd. She was "strong at the finish" over 6f, suggesting that stepping back up to 7f today is exactly what she wants.


• Course Specialist: She loves it here. She has four career wins at Wolverhampton, including a victory over this exact course and distance (C&D) last summer off a mark of 57.


Ratings & Handicapping: The Racing Post (RPR) and At The Races experts have given her a 5-star rating for this race, noting she was beaten only 1.5 lengths last time off a 1lb higher mark. She’s essentially running off a very dangerous handicap mark of 64 today.

• The "Jason Hart" Factor: Having Jason Hart in the saddle is a major plus, he knows her well and was on board for her improved effort last time out.


The Competition
It’s a competitive Class 6, and you’ll need to watch out for a few others:

• Yehudi (4/1): The likely favorite with Billy Loughnane up. Very consistent but often finds one or two too good. Badly drawn.

• Al Hofzan (6/1): Coming off a tiny nose defeat over C&D. He’s the main danger if he reproduces that form.

• Orbital Chime (13/2): Timeform's top pick, largely because the trainer (James Owen) is excellent with new recruits.


My Verdict
White Umbrella looks like a fantastic Each-Way play. She’s a "horses for courses" type who showed she’s back in form with that cracking run a fortnight ago. The step up to 7f should allow her to use that late finishing speed more effectively.

My Bets
White Umbrella EW @ 10/1

I agree with your selection Dave price has drifted out to 14/1, even better.
I'd also have a favourable mention for Simply Blue @ 7/1

Race Profiler 1730 @ Wolves

Cheers

 

[Leodis]

Hi Dave , for the benefit of anyone who may have bought your book or for people thinking of buying it, could you please post up the profit and loss, etc, since book launch. Maybe on a weekly basis?

It would be interesting to see your progress. Cheers

 

[Dave]

Hi Dave , for the benefit of anyone who may have bought your book or for people thinking of buying it, could you please post up the profit and loss, etc, since book launch. Maybe on a weekly basis?

It would be interesting to see your progress. Cheers

Hi Leodis that sounds like a good idea. I will do that once I get a few spare minutes.

Cheers Dave

 

[Larry]

Hi Dave & Leodis I have bought Daves book & it is a very good read but I will say I don't pick selections purely on his guidelines in the book, most are cross referenced with HRB systems I have & various ratings that I use, this has had some success & some failures but overall I'm happy with the different angles it has given me. I'm fast approaching retirement age so I hope I find the holy grail that I've been looking for for nearly 50 years

 

[JennyK]

I think the market has it about right in the 7.30 Kempton, with Serenity Dream the current favourite and Amazonian Dream second in the betting.

Serenity Dream won a class 63, average OR 77.4 off 68 on 14/01/26, and today over course and distance runs against a weaker field, average OR 71.4, though off a mark of 72. He didn't do quite as well lto, again over the same class and distance as today's, but he surely should be there or thereabouts..

If he is beaten, Amazonian Dream could well be the one who does. It is well over a year since he last won, a class 129, average OR 89.3, off 89. That resulted in a mark of 91 and then in eleven races he never looked like winning and ended 2025 off 78. Dropped another 3lb for two very average performances, off 75 he was at last competitive and came a close 2nd in a class 74.8. Then followed another mediocre run and today again off 75, he runs in a class 71.4. If he runs as well as he did in the class 74.8, on my figures he will beat Serenity Dream, but the disappointing run lto underlines the if; it certainly can't be assumed.

There is enough doubt about each - Serenity Dream's last run and Amazonian Dream's penultimate - to put me off a book and instead I shall be trying to trade both horses to show a profit whichever wins and not to lose if neither does. My guess is that there will be enough movement in the Betfair market for that to be realistic.

 

[Chesham]

The True Custom Class Rating (CCR) Summary Table​

(Averaging the three runs calculated above)

Horse Name	Avg HRB Custom Class Rtg (CCR)	Diff vs Median OR (72)	Avg HRB Performance Rtg (PR%)
Amazonian Dream	74.08	+2.08	51.86%
Invincible Speed	73.58	+1.58	54.27%
Em Four	72.20	+0.20	32.23%
Al Barez	71.33	-0.67	27.19%
Serenity Dream	70.09	-1.91	55.01%
Media Shooter	70.05	-1.95	-1.51%

Export to Sheets
(Note: Brazen Idol and Oberon Hill are skipped due to layoffs of over 300 days).
This RaceIQ data for the 7.30 Kempton is brilliant. It perfectly illuminates the tactical speed battle on the front end and confirms which closers actually possess the biomechanical acceleration to win.

Here is the data-driven breakdown.

1. The Pace Meltdown (Em Four vs. Serenity Dream)​

We knew from the start positions and jockey that Em Four (8/1) would force the pace from Stall 7, and the tracking metrics confirm his aggressive style.

• The RaceIQ Data: In his last three starts, Em Four has recorded early 0-20 mph splits of 2.63s, 2.70s, and 3.59s. However, his Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP) tell the real story: 101.49%, 104.65%, and a dead 100.00%.
• The Synergy: A 100.00% FSP means he is perfectly maintaining his average speed but not accelerating at all at the finish. LTO, he faded close home.

Now, let's look at the favorite, Serenity Dream (6/4), drawn inside him in Stall 6.

• The RaceIQ Data: Serenity Dream is faster out of the gate, posting splits of 2.47s, 2.66s, and 2.63s.
• The Synergy: Serenity Dream will likely break faster, but Em Four is going to be driven hard across him to get the rail. This guarantees a speed duel. Because Serenity Dream "races freely," he won't settle if pressured. Both of these horses are going to burn out in the final furlong.

2. The Statistical Standout: Invincible Speed (8/1)​

The algorithm and pace map pointed to him, and the RaceIQ data screams that he is the winner.

• The RaceIQ Data: In his win two starts ago at Lingfield, he recorded an elite Top Speed of 41.21 MPH (Rank 1)and a massive FSP of 106.46% (Rank 1). Even in defeat LTO, his FSP was a strong 103.10% (Rank 3).
• The Synergy: He has the fastest verified top-end gear in the field and the biomechanical ability to sustain it. Sitting at the rear (4/5), he will watch Em Four and Serenity Dream cut each other's throats and then use his 41 MPH engine to blow past them.

3. The Flawed Closer: Amazonian Dream (11/4)​

He was the other closer we highlighted, but the data exposes his inconsistency.

• The RaceIQ Data: Two starts ago at Lingfield, he posted an excellent FSP of 107.31%. But look at his other recent FSPs: 101.18% and 102.14%. Furthermore, his Top Speeds hover in the 38-39 MPH range.
• The Synergy: He doesn't have the 41+ MPH top gear that Invincible Speed possesses. He is a grinder who needs the leaders to stop completely, rather than possessing the raw acceleration to pass them.

4. The Returning Outsider: Brazen Idol (25/1)​

• The RaceIQ Data: Returning from a 702-day absence, the data from his last run (April 2024) shows he recorded a phenomenal Top Speed of 41.82 MPH.
• The Synergy: He has the raw engine of a very good horse. You cannot trust him to win after two years off the track, but that 41.82 MPH metric makes him a fascinating, high-risk inclusion in Exacta or Trifecta permutations at 25/1 if the front end collapses.

---

Revised Final Verdict: The RaceIQ Blueprint​

This is a classic speed-duel setup on the All-Weather, creating immense value on the closers.

The Elite Value / Win Bet: Invincible Speed (8/1) ​

He is the bet of the race. The tracking data confirms he possesses the #1 Top Speed (41.21 MPH) and the #1 Finishing Speed (106.46%) when things fall right. With Em Four and Serenity Dream guaranteed to set a blistering pace, the race is perfectly constructed for Invincible Speed to drop anchor and sweep past them late. 8/1 is an outstanding price.

The Tactical Lay: Serenity Dream (6/4 F) ​

The math and the pace map are totally against him. He is drawn outside the closers but inside the most aggressive front-runner in the field (Em Four). He is going to be forced to run faster than his optimal cruising speed in the first two furlongs, leaving him empty when Invincible Speed challenges. Laying him at 6/4 is the smart play.

The "What If" Exacta Partner: Brazen Idol (25/1) ​

If you are playing exotics, throw him in. A horse with a verified 41.82 MPH top speed is always dangerous if the leaders stop, even off a massive layoff.

---

 

[Dave]

I’m also with you Chesham

 

[Dave]

Kempton 7:30

Looking at this race as a whole, I’m not actually 100% convinced we’re guaranteed a strong early pace, even though there are a few in here who can go forward. However, based the RaceIQ metrics we should see both Serenity Dream and Em Four taking each other one for the lead.

If the race shapes how I’m reading the race. Then I see a pace battle up front which is only good news for If they do stack up a bit early, it’s going to favour anything with a sharp turn of foot rather than the grinders who need a proper tempo to bring stamina into play.


The Pace Map

Likely early speed

Serenity Dream has the faster early pace than

Em Four based the RaceIQ metrics.

Mid-division:

Invincible Speed, Media Shooter

Hold-up:

Al Barez, Brazen Idol, Oberon Hill



Draw Bias Analysis (Kempton 6f)
Low–middle draws favoured (inside bend comes quickly), High draws can win but need:

Early speed OR Strong pace collapse.

Draw impact:

Amazonian Dream (1), Media Shooter (2), Oberon Hill (3), Invincible Speed (4) all have good draws.

Brazen Idol (5), Serenity Dream (6) draws are ok.

Em Four (7), Al Barez (8) are drawn wide, which isn’t good.

Remember horse drawn Low that have good early pace has a strong advantage.


The one I’m really interested in is In Invincible Speed. He had strong finishing metrics and a high Top Speed. I appreciate he finished 4th LTO and Serenity Dream finished 2nd in the same race beating Invincible Spirit by just over a length. The question is can he turn that around. The answer is I don’t know. However, if the two front runners go too hard then it’s highly likely he will turn the tables.

I could either take the 2/1 win on Serenity Dream or the 10/1 EW on Invincible Spirit. I know where the value is.

My Bet

Invincible Spirit EW 10/1 BOG

 

[Dave]

The True Custom Class Rating (CCR) Summary Table​

(Averaging the three runs calculated above)

Horse Name	Avg HRB Custom Class Rtg (CCR)	Diff vs Median OR (72)	Avg HRB Performance Rtg (PR%)
Amazonian Dream	74.08	+2.08	51.86%
Invincible Speed	73.58	+1.58	54.27%
Em Four	72.20	+0.20	32.23%
Al Barez	71.33	-0.67	27.19%
Serenity Dream	70.09	-1.91	55.01%
Media Shooter	70.05	-1.95	-1.51%

Export to Sheets
(Note: Brazen Idol and Oberon Hill are skipped due to layoffs of over 300 days).
This RaceIQ data for the 7.30 Kempton is brilliant. It perfectly illuminates the tactical speed battle on the front end and confirms which closers actually possess the biomechanical acceleration to win.

Here is the data-driven breakdown.

1. The Pace Meltdown (Em Four vs. Serenity Dream)​

We knew from the start positions and jockey that Em Four (8/1) would force the pace from Stall 7, and the tracking metrics confirm his aggressive style.

• The RaceIQ Data: In his last three starts, Em Four has recorded early 0-20 mph splits of 2.63s, 2.70s, and 3.59s. However, his Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP) tell the real story: 101.49%, 104.65%, and a dead 100.00%.
• The Synergy: A 100.00% FSP means he is perfectly maintaining his average speed but not accelerating at all at the finish. LTO, he faded close home.

Now, let's look at the favorite, Serenity Dream (6/4), drawn inside him in Stall 6.

• The RaceIQ Data: Serenity Dream is faster out of the gate, posting splits of 2.47s, 2.66s, and 2.63s.
• The Synergy: Serenity Dream will likely break faster, but Em Four is going to be driven hard across him to get the rail. This guarantees a speed duel. Because Serenity Dream "races freely," he won't settle if pressured. Both of these horses are going to burn out in the final furlong.

2. The Statistical Standout: Invincible Speed (8/1)​

The algorithm and pace map pointed to him, and the RaceIQ data screams that he is the winner.

• The RaceIQ Data: In his win two starts ago at Lingfield, he recorded an elite Top Speed of 41.21 MPH (Rank 1)and a massive FSP of 106.46% (Rank 1). Even in defeat LTO, his FSP was a strong 103.10% (Rank 3).
• The Synergy: He has the fastest verified top-end gear in the field and the biomechanical ability to sustain it. Sitting at the rear (4/5), he will watch Em Four and Serenity Dream cut each other's throats and then use his 41 MPH engine to blow past them.

3. The Flawed Closer: Amazonian Dream (11/4)​

He was the other closer we highlighted, but the data exposes his inconsistency.

• The RaceIQ Data: Two starts ago at Lingfield, he posted an excellent FSP of 107.31%. But look at his other recent FSPs: 101.18% and 102.14%. Furthermore, his Top Speeds hover in the 38-39 MPH range.
• The Synergy: He doesn't have the 41+ MPH top gear that Invincible Speed possesses. He is a grinder who needs the leaders to stop completely, rather than possessing the raw acceleration to pass them.

4. The Returning Outsider: Brazen Idol (25/1)​

• The RaceIQ Data: Returning from a 702-day absence, the data from his last run (April 2024) shows he recorded a phenomenal Top Speed of 41.82 MPH.
• The Synergy: He has the raw engine of a very good horse. You cannot trust him to win after two years off the track, but that 41.82 MPH metric makes him a fascinating, high-risk inclusion in Exacta or Trifecta permutations at 25/1 if the front end collapses.

---

Revised Final Verdict: The RaceIQ Blueprint​

This is a classic speed-duel setup on the All-Weather, creating immense value on the closers.

The Elite Value / Win Bet: Invincible Speed (8/1) ​

He is the bet of the race. The tracking data confirms he possesses the #1 Top Speed (41.21 MPH) and the #1 Finishing Speed (106.46%) when things fall right. With Em Four and Serenity Dream guaranteed to set a blistering pace, the race is perfectly constructed for Invincible Speed to drop anchor and sweep past them late. 8/1 is an outstanding price.

The Tactical Lay: Serenity Dream (6/4 F) ​

The math and the pace map are totally against him. He is drawn outside the closers but inside the most aggressive front-runner in the field (Em Four). He is going to be forced to run faster than his optimal cruising speed in the first two furlongs, leaving him empty when Invincible Speed challenges. Laying him at 6/4 is the smart play.

The "What If" Exacta Partner: Brazen Idol (25/1) ​

If you are playing exotics, throw him in. A horse with a verified 41.82 MPH top speed is always dangerous if the leaders stop, even off a massive layoff.

---

Great analysis report. I backed the horse this morning based on the pace set up and the fact I think Invincible Spirit can benefit the most if there is a pace collapse. The finishing speed percentage is strong which is also a big positive.

 

[Chesham]

1. The Pace Meltdown (Em Four vs. Serenity Dream)​

We knew from the start positions and jockey that Em Four (8/1) would force the pace from Stall 7, and the tracking metrics confirm his aggressive style.

• The RaceIQ Data: In his last three starts, Em Four has recorded early 0-20 mph splits of 2.63s, 2.70s, and 3.59s. However, his Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP) tell the real story: 101.49%, 104.65%, and a dead 100.00%.
• The Synergy: A 100.00% FSP means he is perfectly maintaining his average speed but not accelerating at all at the finish. LTO, he faded close home.

Revised Final Verdict: The RaceIQ Blueprint​

This is a classic speed-duel setup on the All-Weather, creating immense value on the closers.

The Elite Value / Win Bet: Invincible Speed (8/1) ​

He is the bet of the race. The tracking data confirms he possesses the #1 Top Speed (41.21 MPH) and the #1 Finishing Speed (106.46%) when things fall right. With Em Four and Serenity Dream guaranteed to set a blistering pace, the race is perfectly constructed for Invincible Speed to drop anchor and sweep past them late. 8/1 is an outstanding price.

The Tactical Lay: Serenity Dream (6/4 F) ​

The math and the pace map are totally against him. He is drawn outside the closers but inside the most aggressive front-runner in the field (Em Four). He is going to be forced to run faster than his optimal cruising speed in the first two furlongs, leaving him empty when Invincible Speed challenges. Laying him at 6/4 is the smart play.

The "What If" Exacta Partner: Brazen Idol (25/1) ​

If you are playing exotics, throw him in. A horse with a verified 41.82 MPH top speed is always dangerous if the leaders stop, even off a massive layoff.

The Lay worked out well and Brazen did well at big odds.

Betdaq paid 4 places

The lay selections seem to work out well with three others successfully worked out correct today.

 

[Leodis]

Hi Dave & Leodis I have bought Daves book & it is a very good read but I will say I don't pick selections purely on his guidelines in the book, most are cross referenced with HRB systems I have & various ratings that I use, this has had some success & some failures but overall I'm happy with the different angles it has given me. I'm fast approaching retirement age so I hope I find the holy grail that I've been looking for for nearly 50 years

Hi Larry , I have not bought the book myself, as I am more than happy with my own methods. Dave will be pleased you are finding it useful, no doubt

 

[Dave]

Here’s my personal take on how they stack up for the Newcastle 17:25:

Why I like Golspie

To me, he’s the one to beat because of his Course & Distance (C&D) pedigree. He actually beat Dingwall here back in December, and he clearly finds the Newcastle surface much more to his liking than other tracks.

In his last two runs, a close 2nd and a solid 4th he looked like he was just a bit of luck away from another win. If David Nolan can get him into a rhythm early and avoid getting trapped behind horses when the pace quickens, I think his late burst is the strongest in the field.

Why I’m keeping an eye on Dingwall

I have to respect his honesty; he’s a model of consistency, having finished 2nd in four of his last five starts. He’s the type of horse that’s always "there or thereabouts," which makes him a very reliable pick for a place.

My only slight concern is his "win-gallop." He’s been finding one or two too good for him lately, and since he’s already been beaten by Golspie over this specific track and trip, he might find himself playing second fiddle again unless he finds an extra gear in the final furlong.

RaceIQ metrics (stride length, frequency, and Finishing Speed Percentage) are great for seeing which horse is actually "working" the most efficiently, rather than just who looks fast to the eye.

Golspie has a High (~7.40m+) stride. He has a massive reach, which is why he excels at Newcastle. The long straight allows him to fully extend.

Stride Frequency Lower (~2.25 - 2.30 s/s): He relies on leverage. He doesn't "rev" his engine as fast, which helps him stay longer distances.

FSP% - High (103%+): Usually finishes faster than his average race speed. He’s a "closer" who needs a clear run to get that big stride moving.

Dingwall - Stride Length Moderate (~7.20m): He has a shorter, more compact stride. He doesn't cover as much ground per "step."

Stride Frequency - Higher (~2.40+ s/s): He has a very high "cadence." He moves his legs quickly, which is great for tactical positioning but uses more energy.

FSP% - Efficient (~101%): He’s very steady. He doesn't usually find a massive "extra" gear, but he doesn't collapse either.

What this tells me for today's race

Looking at these metrics, here is how I think the race plays out for your two:

• Golspie's Danger Zone: Because his stride is so long, he’s like a big freight train—he takes time to build up speed. If the pace is messy or he gets boxed in, he can't "shorten up" easily to find a gap. His metrics suggest that if he gets a clear outside run, his superior ground coverage should see him pass almost anything in this grade.

• Dingwall's Edge: His higher frequency (cadence) makes him much more "nippy." If the race becomes a tactical "cat-and-mouse" affair, he can change speed much faster than Golspie. He’ll likely be in a better position at the 2-furlong pole, and it’ll be a question of whether he can hold off the big-striding horses behind him.


My Verdict

If I had to pick between your two, I’d side with Golspie for the win. He has that "course specialist" edge that usually counts for a lot at Newcastle. However, if you’re looking for a safe Each Way bet, Dingwallis about as solid as they come at this level.

The one spoiler I’m wary of is Mao Shang Wong. He’s been out of sorts, but David O’Meara is a master at getting these types back on track just as their handicap mark drops.

I’m sticking with Golspie for the win based on the Newcastle track geometry. The long, uphill finish here is designed for horses with high stride length and high Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP). Dingwall is the one who will likely look like the winner at the distance, but the physics suggest Golspie's longer reach will reel him in.


My Bets
Golspie EW @ 8.0 BOG

 

[Dave]

Hi Larry , I have not bought the book myself, as I am more than happy with my own methods. Dave will be pleased you are finding it useful, no doubt

Hi Larry, Leodis is exactly right. I’m delighted that you are finding the book useful. I’m even more excited that you are incorporating it with your normal processes.

I myself over the years have read things and thought I like that idea and I can see why it works. That’s how we learn. It’s always good to have your own opinions.

Thanks again Larry it’s much appreciated

 

[Sullybomb]

Here’s my personal take on how they stack up for the Newcastle 17:25:

Why I like Golspie

To me, he’s the one to beat because of his Course & Distance (C&D) pedigree. He actually beat Dingwall here back in December, and he clearly finds the Newcastle surface much more to his liking than other tracks.

In his last two runs, a close 2nd and a solid 4th he looked like he was just a bit of luck away from another win. If David Nolan can get him into a rhythm early and avoid getting trapped behind horses when the pace quickens, I think his late burst is the strongest in the field.

Why I’m keeping an eye on Dingwall

I have to respect his honesty; he’s a model of consistency, having finished 2nd in four of his last five starts. He’s the type of horse that’s always "there or thereabouts," which makes him a very reliable pick for a place.

My only slight concern is his "win-gallop." He’s been finding one or two too good for him lately, and since he’s already been beaten by Golspie over this specific track and trip, he might find himself playing second fiddle again unless he finds an extra gear in the final furlong.

RaceIQ metrics (stride length, frequency, and Finishing Speed Percentage) are great for seeing which horse is actually "working" the most efficiently, rather than just who looks fast to the eye.

Golspie has a High (~7.40m+) stride. He has a massive reach, which is why he excels at Newcastle. The long straight allows him to fully extend.

Stride Frequency Lower (~2.25 - 2.30 s/s): He relies on leverage. He doesn't "rev" his engine as fast, which helps him stay longer distances.

FSP% - High (103%+): Usually finishes faster than his average race speed. He’s a "closer" who needs a clear run to get that big stride moving.

Dingwall - Stride Length Moderate (~7.20m): He has a shorter, more compact stride. He doesn't cover as much ground per "step."

Stride Frequency - Higher (~2.40+ s/s): He has a very high "cadence." He moves his legs quickly, which is great for tactical positioning but uses more energy.

FSP% - Efficient (~101%): He’s very steady. He doesn't usually find a massive "extra" gear, but he doesn't collapse either.

What this tells me for today's race

Looking at these metrics, here is how I think the race plays out for your two:

• Golspie's Danger Zone: Because his stride is so long, he’s like a big freight train—he takes time to build up speed. If the pace is messy or he gets boxed in, he can't "shorten up" easily to find a gap. His metrics suggest that if he gets a clear outside run, his superior ground coverage should see him pass almost anything in this grade.

• Dingwall's Edge: His higher frequency (cadence) makes him much more "nippy." If the race becomes a tactical "cat-and-mouse" affair, he can change speed much faster than Golspie. He’ll likely be in a better position at the 2-furlong pole, and it’ll be a question of whether he can hold off the big-striding horses behind him.


My Verdict

If I had to pick between your two, I’d side with Golspie for the win. He has that "course specialist" edge that usually counts for a lot at Newcastle. However, if you’re looking for a safe Each Way bet, Dingwallis about as solid as they come at this level.

The one spoiler I’m wary of is Mao Shang Wong. He’s been out of sorts, but David O’Meara is a master at getting these types back on track just as their handicap mark drops.

I’m sticking with Golspie for the win based on the Newcastle track geometry. The long, uphill finish here is designed for horses with high stride length and high Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP). Dingwall is the one who will likely look like the winner at the distance, but the physics suggest Golspie's longer reach will reel him in.


My Bets
Golspie EW @ 8.0 BOG

Dave I'd certainly say the horse was given an easy ride.

 

[Dave]

Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Wolverhampton and Lingfield meeting. There may be more to follow later.

Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on

Wolverhampton (AW) Bets:

16:22 DARK KESTREL @ 7.5 EW

16:55 ADDARELLA @ 5.0 WIN

17:30 PLEASANT MAN @ 7.5 EW

18:00 ANTIQUITY @ 8.0 EW

18:30 POETIC FORCE 10.0 EW

19:00 CITY OF POETS @ 6.0 EW

19:30 BINT AL DAAR @ 13.0 EW

19:30 SPANISH VOICE @ 4.0 WIN

20:00 THE DRAGON KING @ 6.0 EW


Lingfield (AW) Bets:

15:12 PROFIT STREET @ 4.5 WIN

16:50 SONIC SI @ 6.0 EW

17:25 MAXIMISING @ 4.0 WIN

17:25 TABREEB @ 9.0 EW



16:22 – Dark Kestrel (7.5 EW)

I'm looking at a horse that is firmly on the upgrade. With an RPR of 87 and a Timeform 83, he's already at the top of this grade's metrics. From Stall 2, he has the perfect "box seat" draw.

• The Map: I expect Charlie Mason (Stall 4) to blast off, providing a perfect tow.

• RaceIQ: His Newcastle sectionals show a finishing speed of 106% compared to the race average—meaning he's saving his best for the final furlong. He handles this track and looks a rock-solid EW play.

• Status: Progressing.

16:55 – Addarella (5.0 WIN)

I see this as a clever piece of placement by the Dixon yard. She was a "make all" winner over 6f here in January for her previous trainer, and her recent 2nd over C&D shows she’s still sharp.

• The Map: She is the natural speed in the race. I expect her to be Prominent or lead from the jump.

• RaceIQ: Dropping to 5f is the key; she has high "launch speed" but has faded late over 6f. This shorter trip should see her sustain that power to the line.

• Status: Progressing.

17:30 – Pleasant Man (7.5 EW)

I’ll be honest: this is a "recovery" mission. He was once rated in the 90s but is now running off OR 69.

• The Map: He led at Lingfield last time before being headed late. I suspect they’ll try the same tactics from Stall 2.

• RaceIQ: His data shows he’s becoming "one-paced." He doesn't have a sprint finish, so he needs to break the hearts of the others from the front. If he gets an easy lead, he's dangerous, but he's more of a grinder than a weaver.

• Status: Regressing.

18:00 – Antiquity (8.0 EW)

I’m quite keen on this one. Timeform has him as the "verdict" pick for a reason. He won readily at Lingfield recently and ran a huge race at Chelmsford last time.

• The Map: This race could turn into a sprint for home. Antiquity usually sits mid-pack and pounces.

• RaceIQ: He thrives in tactical races. Wolverhampton’s slightly longer straight compared to Lingfield will give his long stride time to fully unwind.

• Status: Progressing.

18:30 – Poetic Force (10.0 EW)

I'm treating this 12-year-old with the respect his 7-win C&D record deserves.

• The Map: Ernie’s Valentine is the pace angle. I expect Poetic Force to hug the rail and look for the "cutaway" gap.

• RaceIQ: He isn't getting faster, but his "Course Efficiency" is 10/10. He knows exactly when to kick on this bend. At 10.0, the EW value is purely based on his track experience.

• Status: Stable Veteran.

19:00 – City Of Poets (6.0 EW)

I see a very consistent type here. He’s won 3 of his 6 starts, including a C&D win.

• The Map: Rossa Ryan is a massive jockey booking. He’ll likely track the leaders and try to out-muscle them in the final furlong.

• RaceIQ: He doesn't have "flashing" sectionals, but he is incredibly hardy. In a Class 3, his grit is his best asset.

• Status: Stable.

19:30 – Spanish Voice (4.0 WIN) & Bint Al Daar (13.0 EW)

I'm playing two different angles here.

• Spanish Voice: He's the "Horse in Focus." Beaten favorite last time but recorded a high speed rating. He’s the most likely winner if he settles.

• Bint Al Daar: I love the price here. She’s a previous C&D winner and her RPR of 90 from last year says she’s overpriced at 13.0.

• Status: Spanish Voice () / Bint Al Daar ().

20:00 – The Dragon King (6.0 EW)

I’m looking at a Clive Cox sprinter who loves this surface.

• The Map: He’s a "strong traveler." Expect him to look like the winner 2f out.

• RaceIQ: His Newcastle 2nd last month was a career-best on the clock. He is lightly raced at this trip and remains ahead of his current mark.

• Status: Progressing.

Lingfield (Polytrack)

15:12 – Profit Street (4.5 WIN)

I see him as the day’s strongest "stats" play.

• The Map: Lingfield 7f is all about the draw. He has a decent gate and should track the early leader, Me Tarzan.

• RaceIQ: He was dominant over C&D recently. Even with a penalty, his "Timeform Performance" figure suggests he’s a Class 4 horse running in a Class 5.

• Status: Progressing.

16:50 – Sonic Si (6.0 EW)

I’ve identified this as a "Pace Burnout" race.

• The Map: Wedgewood and Forever Noah are both likely to duel for the lead, setting a suicidal early tempo.

• RaceIQ: Sonic Si was the "sectional eyecatcher" last time. He was stuck behind a wall of horses while running faster than the winner. If the leaders collapse today, he’ll blow past them.

• Status: Progressing.

17:25 – Maximising (4.0 WIN) & Tadreeb (9.0 EW)

I'm looking at a "Retrieval Mission" for Maximising.

• Analysis: He was a ready winner here in January but disappointed as a favorite twice since over 7f. The step up to 1m is designed to help him find his rhythm.

• Tadreeb: He’s an 8-time winner at 7f but has stayed 1m before. He’ll be coming from the back, so he needs the pace to stay honest.

• Status: Maximising () / Tadreeb ().


All of the above are Horse Flagged in my tracker. Obviously, just because they are in my tracker doesn’t mean they are going to win. What it does mean is they have shown the capability to perform at a level where they can win.

All horses in my tracker have a negative Vs.par rating and a Time Index higher than the average for the meeting in one of its recent runs.

 

[Dave]

Dave I'd certainly say the horse was given an easy ride.

Not sure why it only had a stride length of 6.89 metres when usually it’s around 7.30 metres.

It’s as if they weren’t trying and yet the money was down. Doesn’t add up

It certainly looks like they were pushing the horse.