Today's All Weather Racing

[Leodis]

That's fair enough , Chesham, but you could plug those rating formulas into excel and get the same results in probably quicker time once the data is loaded. How does anyone know AI is 100% unless they check through every report it produces? It's not a task I would like to be burdened with, but it is a necessary one if relying on AI to calculate anything.

AI will get better with age and it is something I intend to keep in the toolbox, although its current use is restricted to bouncing ideas of it.

Regards

 

[Chesham]

That's fair enough , Chesham, but you could plug those rating formulas into excel and get the same results in probably quicker time once the data is loaded. How does anyone know AI is 100% unless they check through every report it produces? It's not a task I would like to be burdened with, but it is a necessary one if relying on AI to calculate anything.

AI will get better with age and it is something I intend to keep in the toolbox, although its current use is restricted to bouncing ideas of it.

Regards

All my old formulas were developed with the aid of excel. ArkRoyal was a wizard at coding them into the class sheets. I’m sure given access to RF interactive, HRB and Timeform TFR , Tfigs. IPS and Timeform Past race comments, similar output could be achieved, providing the data could be automatically scraped. Then you still need to interpret the Excel Output into a report .
How do you know that Excel has scraped the data accurately? Fine if you are inputting the data manually, but most coders will scrape the data from the internet,

The difference is that I don't automatically scrape the data from the internet when using AI . I think that is where AI can run aground and need checking.

Can you produce the data output like the sheets in my post on this thread tonight and written reports to interpret the data using Excel.? See
Today's All Weather Racing

”
The Deep Closers: Havaila(IPS 4kj, 5p, 5p) are hard-wired to be held up at the rear of the field.

• Havaila relies on a strong, even gallop to settle (he typically "takes a strong hold"). His jumping last time out was phenomenal, gaining +18.83L on the field and hitting the 1st rank for Recovery Time (0.99s) and Time in Envelope (4.67s).”

Personally I would be happy if everyone abandoned AI as a tool for horse racing, the odds offered would always remain stable.

 

[Dave]

Welcome to the All-Weather Tactical Intelligence Model (AWTIM). I built this system as a fully data-driven extension of the core principles I laid out in my book, UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist’s Guide to Finding Value. : UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW: Amazon.co.uk: Watts, Dave: 9798242338234: Books

While my book provides the foundational blueprint—mapping out pace, draw bias, class, and surface behavior—this model is the "supercharged" evolution of those ideas. I’ve taken that logic and pushed it into a quantitative, structured, and repeatable framework specifically designed to conquer the modern all-weather circuit.

To be clear: I didn't build a tipster tool. I built a tactical intelligence system.

From the Page to the Engine​

Everything I teach in my book is hard-coded into the DNA of this model:

• Pace-First Analysis: The non-negotiable starting point for every race.
• Class Context: Understanding how horses move between levels.
• Surface & Track Quirks: Accounting for the unique "personalities" of each AW venue.
• Tactical Suitability: Evaluating how a race will actually unfold, not just how it looks on paper.
• Value Mechanics: Identifying where the math disagrees with the market.

The Evolution​

I’ve taken the philosophy of the book and added layers that only a high-level analytical engine can provide:

• Deeper, Dynamic Datasets: Real-time information that goes beyond static form.
• Multi-Layered Scoring: A complex "RaceIQ" that weights dozens of variables simultaneously.
• Automated Race-Shape Mapping: Instant visualization of pace pressure and draw advantages.
• Probability Modelling: Transforming tactical observations into precise value-focused predictions.

This is my logic, evolved into a full-scale analytical engine. It’s the specialist’s guide, put into motion.

Southwell: The Tactical Breakdown (Tuesday, 7th Apr)​

16:55 - The Opener (7f) In the first, I’ve found a very clear-cut hierarchy. Pickersgill is my standout; she sits in a bracket of her own when you look at how her raw talent aligns with her historical consistency. She is the "Triple Lock" for me today. Chasing her home, I expect Galileo Charm and Jamie Sommers to be right in the mix. They both show high-level efficiency, but Pickersgill has that extra gear of reliability that makes her the primary play.

17:30 - The 5f Sprint This is a high-speed puzzle, but Blue Lakota is the one I’m centering my strategy around. He matches the track's demands perfectly and is currently operating at his physical peak. For the placings, I’m looking at Castan, who has a massive engine for this grade, and Brazilian Belle, who is as solid as they come at this distance. Blue Lakota is the selection because he doesn't have a single "weak" statistical link in his profile today.

18:00 - The Mile Handicap I’m extremely bullish on Sovereign View here. He has achieved a perfect alignment across every metric we value, and he is comfortably the best-situated horse in the race. I’ll be flanking him with Captain Fox and Gatehouse in the top three. While the other two are incredibly consistent performers, Sovereign View’s peak performance levels are just that much higher for a race of this nature.

18:30 - The 6f Scurry Faithful Dream is my headline act for the 6f trip. She is a specialist in these conditions and her profile is "glowing" across the board. I expect Fanjove and Queen Sana to follow her home; they both have the high-end speed needed to compete, but Faithful Dream is the most balanced runner in the field when you weigh up her track record against her current form.

19:00 - The Mile Series Final The feature race is a cracker, but Tonal is the one I simply cannot ignore. He is the class act of the night and his numbers are in a different zip code compared to most of these. Commander Of Life and Signcastle City make up my top three—both are high-quality individuals, but Tonal is the selection because he is the only one in the field to hit the "top 4" threshold for every single probability marker we track.

19:30 - The Staying Test (1m 6f) Over the long distance, Clansman is the horse I’m trusting. He has a grit and a "staying" efficiency that sets him apart from the rest. Analogical and Trojan Soldier are the immediate threats and deserve their spot in the top three for their consistency, but Clansman’s ability to sustain a high tempo on this galloping surface makes him the gold standard for this race.

20:00 - The Fillies’ Novice It’s a straightforward view for me here: Gesayed is the one. She is operating at a level that is statistically superior to this field. Merry and Porth Eilian are the only ones I can see giving her a race, as they show enough promise to fill the frame, but Gesayed’s historical benchmarks make her the most likely winner on the entire card.

20:30 - The Nightcap (7f) We’ll close the meeting with Federal Envoy. He’s a horse that has been competing in much deeper waters and he looks ideally treated for this drop in grade. I’m rounding out the top three with Velvet Skies and Reginald Charles. Both are very dangerous in this environment, but Federal Envoy gets the nod as the top pick because his overall "power profile" is significantly more robust than his rivals.

 

[Leodis]

Welcome to the All-Weather Tactical Intelligence Model (AWTIM). I built this system as a fully data-driven extension of the core principles I laid out in my book, UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist’s Guide to Finding Value. : UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW: Amazon.co.uk: Watts, Dave: 9798242338234: Books

While my book provides the foundational blueprint—mapping out pace, draw bias, class, and surface behavior—this model is the "supercharged" evolution of those ideas. I’ve taken that logic and pushed it into a quantitative, structured, and repeatable framework specifically designed to conquer the modern all-weather circuit.

To be clear: I didn't build a tipster tool. I built a tactical intelligence system.

From the Page to the Engine​

Everything I teach in my book is hard-coded into the DNA of this model:

• Pace-First Analysis: The non-negotiable starting point for every race.
• Class Context: Understanding how horses move between levels.
• Surface & Track Quirks: Accounting for the unique "personalities" of each AW venue.
• Tactical Suitability: Evaluating how a race will actually unfold, not just how it looks on paper.
• Value Mechanics: Identifying where the math disagrees with the market.

The Evolution​

I’ve taken the philosophy of the book and added layers that only a high-level analytical engine can provide:

• Deeper, Dynamic Datasets: Real-time information that goes beyond static form.
• Multi-Layered Scoring: A complex "RaceIQ" that weights dozens of variables simultaneously.
• Automated Race-Shape Mapping: Instant visualization of pace pressure and draw advantages.
• Probability Modelling: Transforming tactical observations into precise value-focused predictions.

This is my logic, evolved into a full-scale analytical engine. It’s the specialist’s guide, put into motion.

Southwell: The Tactical Breakdown (Tuesday, 7th Apr)​

16:55 - The Opener (7f) In the first, I’ve found a very clear-cut hierarchy. Pickersgill is my standout; she sits in a bracket of her own when you look at how her raw talent aligns with her historical consistency. She is the "Triple Lock" for me today. Chasing her home, I expect Galileo Charm and Jamie Sommers to be right in the mix. They both show high-level efficiency, but Pickersgill has that extra gear of reliability that makes her the primary play.

17:30 - The 5f Sprint This is a high-speed puzzle, but Blue Lakota is the one I’m centering my strategy around. He matches the track's demands perfectly and is currently operating at his physical peak. For the placings, I’m looking at Castan, who has a massive engine for this grade, and Brazilian Belle, who is as solid as they come at this distance. Blue Lakota is the selection because he doesn't have a single "weak" statistical link in his profile today.

18:00 - The Mile Handicap I’m extremely bullish on Sovereign View here. He has achieved a perfect alignment across every metric we value, and he is comfortably the best-situated horse in the race. I’ll be flanking him with Captain Fox and Gatehouse in the top three. While the other two are incredibly consistent performers, Sovereign View’s peak performance levels are just that much higher for a race of this nature.

18:30 - The 6f Scurry Faithful Dream is my headline act for the 6f trip. She is a specialist in these conditions and her profile is "glowing" across the board. I expect Fanjove and Queen Sana to follow her home; they both have the high-end speed needed to compete, but Faithful Dream is the most balanced runner in the field when you weigh up her track record against her current form.

19:00 - The Mile Series Final The feature race is a cracker, but Tonal is the one I simply cannot ignore. He is the class act of the night and his numbers are in a different zip code compared to most of these. Commander Of Life and Signcastle City make up my top three—both are high-quality individuals, but Tonal is the selection because he is the only one in the field to hit the "top 4" threshold for every single probability marker we track.

19:30 - The Staying Test (1m 6f) Over the long distance, Clansman is the horse I’m trusting. He has a grit and a "staying" efficiency that sets him apart from the rest. Analogical and Trojan Soldier are the immediate threats and deserve their spot in the top three for their consistency, but Clansman’s ability to sustain a high tempo on this galloping surface makes him the gold standard for this race.

20:00 - The Fillies’ Novice It’s a straightforward view for me here: Gesayed is the one. She is operating at a level that is statistically superior to this field. Merry and Porth Eilian are the only ones I can see giving her a race, as they show enough promise to fill the frame, but Gesayed’s historical benchmarks make her the most likely winner on the entire card.

20:30 - The Nightcap (7f) We’ll close the meeting with Federal Envoy. He’s a horse that has been competing in much deeper waters and he looks ideally treated for this drop in grade. I’m rounding out the top three with Velvet Skies and Reginald Charles. Both are very dangerous in this environment, but Federal Envoy gets the nod as the top pick because his overall "power profile" is significantly more robust than his rivals.

AI or Excel generated?



It is a basic example, but, with the right formulas and appraisal database (AI could help with this), then yes, it would be possible to generate reports similar to yours in Excel.

Note: The attached is not in scope for covering all rating scenarios (plateaus, missing numbers in the series, etc). Not to say it can't be done - I just didn't bother for the purpose of the quick example.

I agree data sources can't be 100% unless the providers of such go through everything with a fine-toothed comb which I doubt. Excel won't add to the problem though, at any given time, unlike AI would.

Regards

 

[Leodis]

Apologies, the above was in response to Chesham 's post. Just realised I copied the wrong one in

 

[Chesham]

Apologies, the above was in response to Chesham 's post. Just realised I copied the wrong one in

Not sure what message that you are trying to convey To me . Nothing wrong with Excel the old class ratings sheets used Excel and coded by ArkRoyal Who used Reform Interactive and HRB for the data. I cant code excel myself, but If I remember correctly it took ages for the final class ratings sheets to Complete the output stages.

Prior to ArkRoyal producing the Sheets I paid for a coder who lived in the Far East.

Perhaps post your own in depth Pre Race Reports using your excel tools and I will respond using how I use AI to produce my reports

 

[tony spencer]

Welcome to the All-Weather Tactical Intelligence Model (AWTIM). I built this system as a fully data-driven extension of the core principles I laid out in my book, UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist’s Guide to Finding Value. : UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW: Amazon.co.uk: Watts, Dave: 9798242338234: Books

While my book provides the foundational blueprint—mapping out pace, draw bias, class, and surface behavior—this model is the "supercharged" evolution of those ideas. I’ve taken that logic and pushed it into a quantitative, structured, and repeatable framework specifically designed to conquer the modern all-weather circuit.

To be clear: I didn't build a tipster tool. I built a tactical intelligence system.

From the Page to the Engine​

Everything I teach in my book is hard-coded into the DNA of this model:

• Pace-First Analysis: The non-negotiable starting point for every race.
• Class Context: Understanding how horses move between levels.
• Surface & Track Quirks: Accounting for the unique "personalities" of each AW venue.
• Tactical Suitability: Evaluating how a race will actually unfold, not just how it looks on paper.
• Value Mechanics: Identifying where the math disagrees with the market.

The Evolution​

I’ve taken the philosophy of the book and added layers that only a high-level analytical engine can provide:

• Deeper, Dynamic Datasets: Real-time information that goes beyond static form.
• Multi-Layered Scoring: A complex "RaceIQ" that weights dozens of variables simultaneously.
• Automated Race-Shape Mapping: Instant visualization of pace pressure and draw advantages.
• Probability Modelling: Transforming tactical observations into precise value-focused predictions.

This is my logic, evolved into a full-scale analytical engine. It’s the specialist’s guide, put into motion.

Southwell: The Tactical Breakdown (Tuesday, 7th Apr)​

16:55 - The Opener (7f) In the first, I’ve found a very clear-cut hierarchy. Pickersgill is my standout; she sits in a bracket of her own when you look at how her raw talent aligns with her historical consistency. She is the "Triple Lock" for me today. Chasing her home, I expect Galileo Charm and Jamie Sommers to be right in the mix. They both show high-level efficiency, but Pickersgill has that extra gear of reliability that makes her the primary play.

17:30 - The 5f Sprint This is a high-speed puzzle, but Blue Lakota is the one I’m centering my strategy around. He matches the track's demands perfectly and is currently operating at his physical peak. For the placings, I’m looking at Castan, who has a massive engine for this grade, and Brazilian Belle, who is as solid as they come at this distance. Blue Lakota is the selection because he doesn't have a single "weak" statistical link in his profile today.

18:00 - The Mile Handicap I’m extremely bullish on Sovereign View here. He has achieved a perfect alignment across every metric we value, and he is comfortably the best-situated horse in the race. I’ll be flanking him with Captain Fox and Gatehouse in the top three. While the other two are incredibly consistent performers, Sovereign View’s peak performance levels are just that much higher for a race of this nature.

18:30 - The 6f Scurry Faithful Dream is my headline act for the 6f trip. She is a specialist in these conditions and her profile is "glowing" across the board. I expect Fanjove and Queen Sana to follow her home; they both have the high-end speed needed to compete, but Faithful Dream is the most balanced runner in the field when you weigh up her track record against her current form.

19:00 - The Mile Series Final The feature race is a cracker, but Tonal is the one I simply cannot ignore. He is the class act of the night and his numbers are in a different zip code compared to most of these. Commander Of Life and Signcastle City make up my top three—both are high-quality individuals, but Tonal is the selection because he is the only one in the field to hit the "top 4" threshold for every single probability marker we track.

19:30 - The Staying Test (1m 6f) Over the long distance, Clansman is the horse I’m trusting. He has a grit and a "staying" efficiency that sets him apart from the rest. Analogical and Trojan Soldier are the immediate threats and deserve their spot in the top three for their consistency, but Clansman’s ability to sustain a high tempo on this galloping surface makes him the gold standard for this race.

20:00 - The Fillies’ Novice It’s a straightforward view for me here: Gesayed is the one. She is operating at a level that is statistically superior to this field. Merry and Porth Eilian are the only ones I can see giving her a race, as they show enough promise to fill the frame, but Gesayed’s historical benchmarks make her the most likely winner on the entire card.

20:30 - The Nightcap (7f) We’ll close the meeting with Federal Envoy. He’s a horse that has been competing in much deeper waters and he looks ideally treated for this drop in grade. I’m rounding out the top three with Velvet Skies and Reginald Charles. Both are very dangerous in this environment, but Federal Envoy gets the nod as the top pick because his overall "power profile" is significantly more robust than his rivals.

You find lots of very shrewd People in this Forum. Good luck with your book. I do something very similar to you. Regards Tony

 

[Chesham]

I wonder if Excel can do this

Tornado Tower makes his debut in the Nottingham 1.47. (Watching brief today, No future race engagements so looks a work in progress and being brought along for the future)

A Blue-Chip Classic Prospect. Lot 184 from the 2024 Tattersalls October Yearling Sale (Book 1) is a bay colt bred in the absolute purple. Purchased for a staggering 850,000 Guineas by Blandford Bloodstock, he is a full brother to the triple Group 1 winner Hurricane Lane. Featuring the undisputed world champion sire Frankel paired with a highly successful stamina-laden female line, this colt has the genetic credentials to be a top-tier middle-distance runner and a future stallion.

---

2. Sire Profile: Frankel (GB)​

• Influence: Frankel is the pre-eminent sire of the modern era, dominating global bloodstock with an extraordinary percentage of Group 1 winners.
• Traits: He imparts a massive, galloping stride, elite cruising speed, and a high degree of class. While his progeny have succeeded at all distances, his true sweet spot is producing exceptional middle-distance horses (1m 2f to 1m 4f) who can quicken off a strong pace.

---

3. Female Line (Dam & Broodmare Sire)​

• The Dam: Gale Force (GB). She was a high-class stayer herself, winning the Listed Prix Denisy over 1m 7f in France. As a broodmare, she is a proven elite producer. Her crowning achievement is producing this colt's full brother, Hurricane Lane (Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris, St Leger), as well as the Listed-placed Frankel's Storm.
• The Broodmare Sire: Shirocco (GER). A brilliant middle-distance horse and son of the legendary Monsun. Shirocco brings deep German stamina lines, toughness, and a renowned affinity for soft ground to the pedigree.

---

4. The Cross / Nick​

• Genetic Blend: The Frankel over Shirocco (Monsun line) cross is a spectacular, proven nick. It perfectly balances high cruising speed with bottomless stamina. Frankel provides the brilliance and raw engine, while the Shirocco influence ensures the horse will not back down in a punishing finish.
• Proven Success: This exact genetic mix has already yielded a champion in Hurricane Lane. It is the textbook blueprint for a horse aimed at the Classic generation's defining 1m 4f contests.

---

5. Conditions Suitability​

• Distance Expectation: 1m 2f up to 1m 6f. This colt is genetically engineered to be a Classic middle-distance/stayer type. He will likely start over a mile as a late two-year-old but is bred to thrive when stepped up to 1m 4f and beyond as a three-year-old.
• Track & Surface: The Monsun/Shirocco influence strongly suggests he will handle any cut in the ground. A galloping track with a stiff finish (such as Ascot, the Curragh, or Doncaster) will allow his stamina reserves and long stride to be maximized.

---

6. Final Verdict​

This currently unnamed colt possesses one of the most desirable pedigrees in the European studbook. The 850,000gns price tag reflects the reality that he is a full brother to a Classic winner and sired by the world's best stallion. If his physical development matches his aristocratic pedigree, he represents a formidable long-term prospect for the Derby and St Leger trials in 2026 and beyond.
To truly understand why this colt commanded 850,000 Guineas, we have to look past the sire (Frankel) and examine the phenomenal female line. The "3 Generation Mares data" in this catalogue traces back to one of the most potent and active families in the European studbook, originating from the elite Aga Khan breeding program.

Here is a deep dive into the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd dams that make this colt a "blue-chip" prospect.

1st Dam: Gale Force (GB) (2011, by Shirocco)​

• Her Profile on the Track: She was a high-class, resolute stayer. She won twice, culminating in a victory in the Listed Prix Denisy over 1m 7f in France. The influence of her sire, Shirocco (a son of Monsun), gave her tremendous stamina and a preference for testing conditions.
• Her Production Record:She is rapidly proving to be an elite broodmare, currently boasting two incredibly high-profile sons:
  • Hurricane Lane (by Frankel): This colt's full brother. He was a champion three-year-old, winning three Group 1s (Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris, and the St Leger) and finishing third in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
  • Sweet William (by Sea The Stars): A phenomenal, high-class stayer who won the Group 2 Doncaster Cup and has hit the board in multiple top-tier staying contests, including the Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup and the Goodwood Cup.
  • Frankel's Storm (by Frankel): A Listed-placed filly who won twice.

2nd Dam: Hannda (IRE) (2002, by Dr Devious)​

• Her Profile on the Track: Bred by the Aga Khan, she was a winner at 3 years old in Ireland over a mile and a quarter. Her sire, Dr Devious, was an Epsom Derby winner, injecting further Classic stamina into the page.
• Her Production Record:Hannda was a sensational producer of top-class fillies, passing down that stamina gene beautifully. Her notable progeny include:
  • Seal of Approval (by Authorized): A brilliant racehorse who won the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes at Ascot.
  • Gale Force: (The colt's dam, detailed above).
  • Instance (by Invincible Spirit): Group 3 placed.

3rd Dam: Hazaradjat (IRE) (1989, by Darshaan)​

• Her Profile: This is the "Blue Hen" of the family. A winner at 2 and 3 years old, she is by the legendary Darshaan, who is widely considered one of the greatest broodmare sires in the history of European racing.
• Her Legacy:Hazaradjat is the foundation mare for a massive modern legacy for the Aga Khan Studs. Her descendants account for over 25 Stakes winners. Her direct influence branches out to several recent superstars:
  • She produced Hazariya, a Group 3 winner who went on to produce the dual Derby winner Harzand (by Sea The Stars) and is the grandam of the recent Group 1 star miler Big Rock.
  • She produced Hazarista, who was placed in the Group 1 Irish Oaks.
  • She produced Handaza, who is the mother of Hannda (the 2nd dam) but is also the grandam of the phenomenal modern-day mare Emily Upjohn (winner of the Group 1 Coronation Cup and the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes).

The Bloodstock Agent's Summary​

When you analyze these three generations, a very clear pattern emerges. This is Family 21-a. It is saturated with elite stamina influences (Shirocco, Dr Devious, Darshaan) and possesses an uncanny, proven ability to produce Group 1 horses when crossed with top-tier sires like Frankel and Sea The Stars.

You are not just buying a Frankel colt; you are buying into a female line that has recently produced Hurricane Lane, Sweet William, Emily Upjohn, Harzand, Seal of Approval, and Big Rock. That density of Group 1 quality in the immediate generations is exceptionally rare, justifying every penny of his sales price.

 

[Dave]

Welcome to the All-Weather Tactical Intelligence Model (AWTIM). I built this system as a fully data-driven extension of the core principles I laid out in my book, UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist’s Guide to Finding Value. : UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW: Amazon.co.uk: Watts, Dave: 9798242338234: Books

While my book provides the foundational blueprint—mapping out pace, draw bias, class, and surface behaviour—this model is the "supercharged" evolution of those ideas. I’ve taken that logic and pushed it into a quantitative, structured, and repeatable framework specifically designed to conquer the modern all-weather circuit.

To be clear: I didn't build a tipster tool. I built a tactical intelligence system.

From the Page to the Engine​

Everything I teach in my book is hard-coded into the DNA of this model:

• Pace-First Analysis: The non-negotiable starting point for every race.
• Class Context: Understanding how horses move between levels.
• Surface & Track Quirks: Accounting for the unique "personalities" of each AW venue.
• Tactical Suitability: Evaluating how a race will actually unfold, not just how it looks on paper.
• Value Mechanics: Identifying where the math disagrees with the market.

The Evolution​

I’ve taken the philosophy of the book and added layers that only a high-level analytical engine can provide:

• Deeper, Dynamic Datasets: Real-time information that goes beyond static form.
• Multi-Layered Scoring: A complex "RaceIQ" that weights dozens of variables simultaneously.
• Automated Race-Shape Mapping: Instant visualization of pace pressure and draw advantages.
• Probability Modelling: Transforming tactical observations into precise value-focused predictions.

This is my logic, evolved into a full-scale analytical engine. It’s the specialist’s guide, put into motion.

(Wednesday, 8th Apr)​

8:30 Kempton: The Speed & Draw Puzzle (7f)​

This is a tricky Class 5 to start with, but the data points to three clear tactical advantages.

My Top 3:

1. Atmosphere (24%) – He’s my top pick for one reason: efficiency. He holds a high Speed Rating of 81 and gets the "Oisin Murphy upgrade." In a tight-track environment like Kempton, having a jockey who knows exactly when to press the button is worth a 2-3 length advantage.
2. Ash Wednesday (18%) – If you look at the pace maps, his figure of 2.29 is almost perfect for his draw. He’s consistent and sits right in the "Form Gap" (Rule A), meaning his recent runs are very close to his master rating.
3. Jersey Maverick (15%) – A high Ability rank in the spreadsheet makes him the class act here. Kieran Shoemark is a massive booking, and if he overcomes the slightly wider draw, he’s the biggest danger.

The Verdict: I’m siding with Atmosphere. The combination of the #1 jockey and a proven speed figure at this distance makes him the most likely winner.

---

19:00 Kempton: The Platinum Play (11f)​

The numbers here aren't just good; they are mathematically "Elite."

My Top 3:

1. Club Class (38%) – This is my Platinum Selection. She hits a Triple Rank Score (TRS) of 3/3, meaning she is #1 in the field for Ability, Consistency, and Speed. With a Pace of 1.86, she’ll likely get a "soft lead" and dictate the race.
2. Rastnet (22%) – The pure speed play. She has the highest raw rating (89) in the race. My only slight concern is the distance transition, but her quality is undeniable.
3. Caramay (16%) – A real C&D (Course and Distance) specialist. Her consistency score of 88.00 is the highest in the field, making her the perfect each-way alternative if the favourite fluffs the start.

The Verdict: Club Class is the bet of the day. The probability gap between her and the field is the widest on the entire card.

---

19:30 Kempton: The Sprint Sleeper (6f)​

Sprints at Kempton are all about the "Golden Zone"—being drawn low and having enough tactical pace to hold your spot.

My Top 3:

1. Arry Up (29%) – I’ve labelled him the Value Sprint Sleeper. Why? He won just 7 days ago, he’s drawn in Stall 3, and his Pace figure is 1.80. He’s perfectly positioned to sit just behind the lead and pounce.
2. Hallo Spaceboy (20%) – He holds a TRS of 2/3 and a massive speed rating of 82. He’s the fastest horse in the race, but the draw is slightly less favorable than the selection.
3. Perfect Location (17%) – You can’t ignore the rail. Drawn in Stall 1 with a Pace of 1.25, he will be the one they all have to peg back.

The Verdict: I’m sticking with Arry Up. His current momentum and perfect tactical draw make him very hard to beat.

---

20:00 Kempton: The Lone Leader (6f)​

This Class 6 race is all about a horse dropping in class and finding a "Pace Advantage."

My Top 3:

1. Twilight Madness (26%) – My Solid Middle Banker. He is a massive class dropper and the top earner in the field. Crucially, his Pace of 1.14 suggests he will be the "Lone Leader" (Rule F). When a horse gets an uncontested lead at Kempton, the probability of winning sky-rockets.
2. Hint Of The Jungle (19%) – A very dangerous rival with a Speed Rating of 80. He’s in great form, but he’ll need Twilight Madness to work harder for the lead than I expect.
3. Initial Blue (14%) – The "Billy Loughnane Factor." Billy is one of the "Hot Jockeys" today, and this horse has the high Ability rank (96.50) to surprise them if the leaders go too fast.

The Verdict: Twilight Madness should outclass these. He’s weighted to win and has the tactical map in his favor.

---

20:30 Kempton: The Pace Meltdown (12f)​

The finale is a tactical nightmare, but that creates value.

My Top 3:

1. Mrembo (22%) – She leads the speed ratings (82) and has a Pace figure of 1.00. While there is a risk of a "Pace Meltdown" here because several others want to lead, her raw speed gives her the edge.
2. Fiddlers Green (17%) – A consistent type who thrives at this track. He ranks 2nd in my TRS scoring and is the most reliable "Place" bet in the race.
3. Uzincso (15%) – A classic "Weighted to Win" horse. He’s running off a mark much lower than his previous wins, and with David Egan booked, the intent is clear.

The Verdict: I’m leaning toward Mrembo, but keep an eye on Take The Boat (12%). Because so many horses want to lead, the race might fall apart, allowing a closer like him to sweep past them all at a big price!

Good luck and fingers crossed.

 

[Chesham]

The Pace Map: The 0-20 mph Reality Check ​

In a 6f sprint around Kempton's tight right-handed bends, early positioning is critical. Let's look at the raw acceleration data out of the stalls:

• Night Mission (7/1): He possesses explosive early speed. His LTO 0-20 mph break was a lightning-fast 2.31s. He is going to clear the field and get the rail easily.
• Arry Up (15/8 F): Breaks cleanly (2.56s) and has the tactical speed to track right behind Night Mission.
• Hallo Spaceboy (2/1): Sluggish out of the gates (2.79s). He disputed the lead LTO, but that was over 5f. Up against Night Mission's 2.31s break, Hallo Spaceboy will be forced to expend vital energy just to get into a prominent position.

2. Biomechanical Profiling: The Stride & Stamina Test​

The Vulnerable Contender: Hallo Spaceboy (2/1)

• The Metrics: He won LTO over 5f, hitting a massive 41.93 mph top speed. However, his Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) was a terrible 97.30%, and Timeform noted a "diminishing advantage inside final furlong."
• The Synergy: He is a pure 5f speedball stepping up to 6f. The data proves he was already hitting a physical wall at the end of 5 furlongs. If he is forced to chase Night Mission's blistering early pace, his stamina will completely collapse in the final furlong today. At 2/1, he is a massive statistical lay.

The Stride Monster: Arry Up (15/8)

• The Metrics: He is highly progressive and already a course-and-distance winner. But his hidden weapon is his biomechanical efficiency. He boasts a massive 7.68m average stride length (hitting 7.90m two starts ago).
• The Synergy: Because his stride is so huge, he covers ground with significantly less effort than his rivals. This is why his late retention is elite (104.37% FSP). He will track the early speed economically and swallow them up late.

The Class Dropper: Goldwork (15/2)

• The Metrics: He hits a huge 41.59 mph top speed, but his 0-20 mph break is very slow (2.79s) and his FSP is poor (97.12%).
• The Synergy: He drops massively in class from a £300k Class 2 to a £6k Class 4. However, the tracking data perfectly backs up the Timeform comment ("merely passed beaten horses"). He is completely out of form and lacks the tactical acceleration to get involved.
• Return Of The Gods (4/1)is the ultimate "high-ceiling, high-risk" enigma in this race.
  
  Looking at the raw mathematics and his physical profile, he is a horse with massive unexposed potential, but he carries a glaring tactical red flag for a 6-furlong sprint around Kempton.
  
  Here is the exact algorithmic evaluation of his profile:
  
  

  1. The Algorithmic Ceiling (The Positives) ​

  • Peak Class Output: His LTO Custom Class Rating (CCR) spiked to 81.0. This ties him perfectly with our top pick, Arry Up, for the highest recent class output in the field.
  • The "p" Factor: Timeform has attached a "p" to his 80p rating, explicitly stating he is "still green" and "will go on improving." We have not seen his physical limit yet.
  • Market Efficiency: He boasts a 65.2% PR%, making him the most market-efficient horse in the race. When the money comes for him, he delivers.
  • Late Retention: His 102.28% FSP shows that once he gets rolling, he finishes his races very strongly.

• 2. The Biomechanical Red Flag (The Negative) ​

  • The Sluggish Break: This is where the tracking data rings the alarm bells. His 0-20 mph break LTO was a very slow 2.93s. That is the slowest acceleration metric among our primary contenders (compared to Night Mission's 2.31s and Arry Up's 2.56s).
  • The Kempton Factor: Kempton's 6-furlong layout features a relatively short run into a sharp right-handed bend. A 2.93s break means Return Of The Gods is going to be outpaced immediately when the stalls open.

• 3. The Tactical Verdict​

  Because he is so slow out of the gates, Return Of The Gods is going to find himself buried in the pack or caught wide early on (Timeform already noted he had to overcome a "wide trip" to win LTO).
  
  To win this race, he will have to expend significant energy navigating through traffic on the bend, while Night Mission and Arry Up get an easy, energy-saving trip on the front end.
  
  The Conclusion: He undoubtedly has the raw class engine (81.0 CCR) to win a Class 4 handicap, but his starting mechanics (2.93s) make him tactically vulnerable today. He is a fantastic horse to include in Exactas and Trifectas because of his strong late kick,

The Ultimate RaceIQ & Class Super Summary Chart (7.30 Kempton)​

Horse Name	LTO / R2 / R3 CCR	LTO / R2 / R3 TFR	LTO / R2 / R3 Tfig	PR%	0-20 mph	LTO FSP	Top Speed	Last 3 Timeform Comments (1=LTO, 2=Run 2, 3=Run 3)	Odds
Arry Up	81.0 / 71.0 / 36.1	80 / 70 / 58	69 / 55 / 34	61.3%	2.56s	104.37%	39.95 mph	1: Took form up another notch, pulled clear near finish. 2: Improved with each run, stayed on well to lead. 3: Fared better than previously, something to build on.	15/8
Return Of The Gods	81.0 / 72.0 / N/A	80p / 77 / N/A	62 / 64 / N/A	65.2%	2.93s	102.28%	40.37 mph	1: Confirmed debut promise, just held on, still green. 2: Showed plenty to work on amid greenness, kept on. 3: (Only 2 career runs)	4/1
Night Mission	72.4 / 52.5 / 64.0	73 / 66 / 73	60 / 66 / 69	24.5%	2.31s	101.73%	40.45 mph	1: Matched form of promising debut, headed final strides. 2: Still green, failed to progress, not quicken. 3: Made encouraging start to career, ran on.	7/1
Hallo Spaceboy	77.0 / 73.1 / 65.0	76 / 77 / 74	75 / 70 / 48	55.8%	2.79s	97.30%	41.93 mph	1: Didn't need to improve, diminishing advantage inside final 1f. 2: Ran to similar level, not quicken late on. 3: Promising first effort, no extra final 50 yds.	2/1
Goldwork	55.1 / 57.5 / 55.6	68 / 49 / 70	74 / 42 / 41	15.4%	2.79s	97.12%	41.59 mph	1: Had next to no chance at weights, merely passed horses. 2: Shaped better than distance beaten suggests, weakened. 3: Sweated up, wasn't in same form, weakened.	15/2

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[Chesham]

I wonder if Excel can do this

Tornado Tower makes his debut in the Nottingham 1.47. (Watching brief today, No future race engagements so looks a work in progress and being brought along for the future)

A Blue-Chip Classic Prospect. Lot 184 from the 2024 Tattersalls October Yearling Sale (Book 1) is a bay colt bred in the absolute purple. Purchased for a staggering 850,000 Guineas by Blandford Bloodstock, he is a full brother to the triple Group 1 winner Hurricane Lane. Featuring the undisputed world champion sire Frankel paired with a highly successful stamina-laden female line, this colt has the genetic credentials to be a top-tier middle-distance runner and a future stallion.

---

2. Sire Profile: Frankel (GB)​

• Influence: Frankel is the pre-eminent sire of the modern era, dominating global bloodstock with an extraordinary percentage of Group 1 winners.
• Traits: He imparts a massive, galloping stride, elite cruising speed, and a high degree of class. While his progeny have succeeded at all distances, his true sweet spot is producing exceptional middle-distance horses (1m 2f to 1m 4f) who can quicken off a strong pace.

---

3. Female Line (Dam & Broodmare Sire)​

• The Dam: Gale Force (GB). She was a high-class stayer herself, winning the Listed Prix Denisy over 1m 7f in France. As a broodmare, she is a proven elite producer. Her crowning achievement is producing this colt's full brother, Hurricane Lane (Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris, St Leger), as well as the Listed-placed Frankel's Storm.
• The Broodmare Sire: Shirocco (GER). A brilliant middle-distance horse and son of the legendary Monsun. Shirocco brings deep German stamina lines, toughness, and a renowned affinity for soft ground to the pedigree.

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4. The Cross / Nick​

• Genetic Blend: The Frankel over Shirocco (Monsun line) cross is a spectacular, proven nick. It perfectly balances high cruising speed with bottomless stamina. Frankel provides the brilliance and raw engine, while the Shirocco influence ensures the horse will not back down in a punishing finish.
• Proven Success: This exact genetic mix has already yielded a champion in Hurricane Lane. It is the textbook blueprint for a horse aimed at the Classic generation's defining 1m 4f contests.

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5. Conditions Suitability​

• Distance Expectation: 1m 2f up to 1m 6f. This colt is genetically engineered to be a Classic middle-distance/stayer type. He will likely start over a mile as a late two-year-old but is bred to thrive when stepped up to 1m 4f and beyond as a three-year-old.
• Track & Surface: The Monsun/Shirocco influence strongly suggests he will handle any cut in the ground. A galloping track with a stiff finish (such as Ascot, the Curragh, or Doncaster) will allow his stamina reserves and long stride to be maximized.

---

6. Final Verdict​

This currently unnamed colt possesses one of the most desirable pedigrees in the European studbook. The 850,000gns price tag reflects the reality that he is a full brother to a Classic winner and sired by the world's best stallion. If his physical development matches his aristocratic pedigree, he represents a formidable long-term prospect for the Derby and St Leger trials in 2026 and beyond.
To truly understand why this colt commanded 850,000 Guineas, we have to look past the sire (Frankel) and examine the phenomenal female line. The "3 Generation Mares data" in this catalogue traces back to one of the most potent and active families in the European studbook, originating from the elite Aga Khan breeding program.

Here is a deep dive into the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd dams that make this colt a "blue-chip" prospect.

1st Dam: Gale Force (GB) (2011, by Shirocco)​

• Her Profile on the Track: She was a high-class, resolute stayer. She won twice, culminating in a victory in the Listed Prix Denisy over 1m 7f in France. The influence of her sire, Shirocco (a son of Monsun), gave her tremendous stamina and a preference for testing conditions.
• Her Production Record:She is rapidly proving to be an elite broodmare, currently boasting two incredibly high-profile sons:
  • Hurricane Lane (by Frankel): This colt's full brother. He was a champion three-year-old, winning three Group 1s (Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris, and the St Leger) and finishing third in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
  • Sweet William (by Sea The Stars): A phenomenal, high-class stayer who won the Group 2 Doncaster Cup and has hit the board in multiple top-tier staying contests, including the Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup and the Goodwood Cup.
  • Frankel's Storm (by Frankel): A Listed-placed filly who won twice.

2nd Dam: Hannda (IRE) (2002, by Dr Devious)​

• Her Profile on the Track: Bred by the Aga Khan, she was a winner at 3 years old in Ireland over a mile and a quarter. Her sire, Dr Devious, was an Epsom Derby winner, injecting further Classic stamina into the page.
• Her Production Record:Hannda was a sensational producer of top-class fillies, passing down that stamina gene beautifully. Her notable progeny include:
  • Seal of Approval (by Authorized): A brilliant racehorse who won the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes at Ascot.
  • Gale Force: (The colt's dam, detailed above).
  • Instance (by Invincible Spirit): Group 3 placed.

3rd Dam: Hazaradjat (IRE) (1989, by Darshaan)​

• Her Profile: This is the "Blue Hen" of the family. A winner at 2 and 3 years old, she is by the legendary Darshaan, who is widely considered one of the greatest broodmare sires in the history of European racing.
• Her Legacy:Hazaradjat is the foundation mare for a massive modern legacy for the Aga Khan Studs. Her descendants account for over 25 Stakes winners. Her direct influence branches out to several recent superstars:
  • She produced Hazariya, a Group 3 winner who went on to produce the dual Derby winner Harzand (by Sea The Stars) and is the grandam of the recent Group 1 star miler Big Rock.
  • She produced Hazarista, who was placed in the Group 1 Irish Oaks.
  • She produced Handaza, who is the mother of Hannda (the 2nd dam) but is also the grandam of the phenomenal modern-day mare Emily Upjohn (winner of the Group 1 Coronation Cup and the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes).

The Bloodstock Agent's Summary​

When you analyze these three generations, a very clear pattern emerges. This is Family 21-a. It is saturated with elite stamina influences (Shirocco, Dr Devious, Darshaan) and possesses an uncanny, proven ability to produce Group 1 horses when crossed with top-tier sires like Frankel and Sea The Stars.

You are not just buying a Frankel colt; you are buying into a female line that has recently produced Hurricane Lane, Sweet William, Emily Upjohn, Harzand, Seal of Approval, and Big Rock. That density of Group 1 quality in the immediate generations is exceptionally rare, justifying every penny of his sales price.

Verdict: A Textbook, Highly Promising Debut. Tornado Tower finished an incredibly encouraging second to the 11/8 favorite. This was a classic educational, building-block run for a horse with his elite staying pedigree. Given he is a full brother to Hurricane Lane, a 1m 2f novice stakes was always going to be a sharp starting point against speedier types. The way he powered through the line confirms his massive engine is intact, and he remains firmly on track for high-class targets as he matures.

---

2. Race Reading & Tactical Analysis​

• The Educational Ride: The fact he wore a hood to the start and was dropped into the "rear of midfield" tells the whole story. John and Thady Gosden clearly wanted him to settle, learn to race behind horses, and finish his race professionally rather than lighting him up early for a debut win.
• The Interference: Edging right and bumping a rival 3 furlongs out is typical greenness for a debuting three-year-old. For a big, long-striding Frankel colt, losing momentum and balance right at the crucial point when the pace quickens is costly.
• The Winner's Advantage: He was ultimately beaten by Olympic Charter, a Charlie Appleby-trained Kingman colt. Kingman imparts raw miler speed, which gave the winner a distinct tactical advantage when accelerating off the front end. Tornado Tower simply needed a stiffer stamina test to reel him in.

---

3. Race Metrics Breakdown​

The tracking data you provided perfectly illustrates his genetic profile playing out on the track:

• Finishing Speed (113.97% - 1st): This is the standout metric. Despite being outpaced when the sprint for home began, he finished the race stronger and faster relative to his overall speed than any other horse in the field. His stamina was just beginning to engage inside the final furlong.
• Top Speed (39.89 MPH - 4th): He lacked the explosive peak burst of the winner (who hit 40.39 MPH). This perfectly aligns with his Shirocco/Monsun female line; he is a relentless galloper who will grind opponents down over longer trips rather than outsprinting them.
• Stride Data: His average stride length of 6.55m (7th) and stride frequency of 2.26 SPS (3rd) suggest he is still physically raw. He is likely a large colt who is still figuring out how to organize and extend his massive frame under race pressure.

---

4. Future Prospects​

This run is exactly what you want to see from a Classic-bred prospect in April. He was not bottomed out or given a hard time, he learned plenty in the pack, and he showed exceptional late momentum. Once he steps up to 1m 4f and gets onto a more galloping track, he will be a completely different, dominant proposition.
Based on the current racing calendar for April and May 2026, there are several perfect stepping stones for a highly-bred, long-striding colt like Tornado Tower.

The Gosden team (John and Thady) are masters at campaigning these late-maturing Classic types. Because he was beaten on his debut, he retains his "Maiden" status, which gives them the flexibility to either find an easy Maiden/Novice to get a win under his belt, or pitch him straight into a Derby Trial if his home work demands it.

Here are the most logical targets for him to step up to 1m 4f (or 1m 3f) over the next 4–6 weeks:

1. The "Confidence Builder" Route (Maiden/Novice Stakes)​

If the Gosdens want to ensure he gets his head in front before tackling Graded company, they will look for a galloping track where his massive 6.55m stride can be fully utilized.

• Newbury Spring Meeting (Late April): Newbury is widely considered one of the fairest, most galloping tracks in the UK. They often run a prestigious 1m 3f or 1m 4f 3-year-old Maiden here. It is a long, wide straight where he will have all the time in the world to find his rhythm and hit top gear without getting unbalanced.
• York Dante Meeting (May 13th – 15th): York is the ultimate flat, galloping track. There are typically highly competitive 1m 4f Novice Stakes run at this meeting. If they want to give him a bit more time to recover from his debut, this mid-May target gives him a full month of preparation.
  
  

2. The "Educational" Route​

Sometimes the Gosdens use specific tracks not just to win, but to teach a big, raw horse how to organize their feet.

• Chester May Festival (May 6th – 8th): Chester is a very tight, turning track. The Gosdens love sending big, green colts here (often for a 1m 4f Maiden) because it forces the horse to learn how to balance on the bends, change their legs, and race professionally. If he passes the Chester test, it proves he can handle the undulations of Epsom.

3. The "Fast-Track" Route (The Derby Trials)​

If he strips significantly fitter for that first run and starts destroying his work companions on the Newmarket gallops, they might skip the maiden phase entirely and throw him into a trial.

• The Chester Vase (Group 3, 1m 4½f) - May 6th: This is a classic trial for late-developing stayers. It will tell them immediately if he is a genuine Derby/St Leger horse or if he needs more time.
• The Lingfield Derby Trial (Listed, 1m 3½f) - May 9th: Another renowned trial that tests a horse's balance on a sharp, undulating track.
  
  

The Bloodstock Agent's Verdict:​

Given how green he was when bumped on his debut, I highly suspect the Gosdens will opt for Newbury or York. A massive Frankel x Shirocco colt needs a long, straight runway to build his momentum, and a tight track like Chester might actually hinder a horse with a 6.55m stride length at this stage of his education.

Keep an eye on the entries for the upcoming Newbury Spring Meeting—that looks like the absolute perfect launchpad for his first victory.

 

[Chesham]

The Pace Map: The 0-20 mph Reality Check ​

In a 6f sprint around Kempton's tight right-handed bends, early positioning is critical. Let's look at the raw acceleration data out of the stalls:

• Night Mission (7/1): He possesses explosive early speed. His LTO 0-20 mph break was a lightning-fast 2.31s. He is going to clear the field and get the rail easily.
• Arry Up (15/8 F): Breaks cleanly (2.56s) and has the tactical speed to track right behind Night Mission.
• Hallo Spaceboy (2/1): Sluggish out of the gates (2.79s). He disputed the lead LTO, but that was over 5f. Up against Night Mission's 2.31s break, Hallo Spaceboy will be forced to expend vital energy just to get into a prominent position.

2. Biomechanical Profiling: The Stride & Stamina Test​

The Vulnerable Contender: Hallo Spaceboy (2/1)

• The Metrics: He won LTO over 5f, hitting a massive 41.93 mph top speed. However, his Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) was a terrible 97.30%, and Timeform noted a "diminishing advantage inside final furlong."
• The Synergy: He is a pure 5f speedball stepping up to 6f. The data proves he was already hitting a physical wall at the end of 5 furlongs. If he is forced to chase Night Mission's blistering early pace, his stamina will completely collapse in the final furlong today. At 2/1, he is a massive statistical lay.

The Stride Monster: Arry Up (15/8)

• The Metrics: He is highly progressive and already a course-and-distance winner. But his hidden weapon is his biomechanical efficiency. He boasts a massive 7.68m average stride length (hitting 7.90m two starts ago).
• The Synergy: Because his stride is so huge, he covers ground with significantly less effort than his rivals. This is why his late retention is elite (104.37% FSP). He will track the early speed economically and swallow them up late.

The Class Dropper: Goldwork (15/2)

• The Metrics: He hits a huge 41.59 mph top speed, but his 0-20 mph break is very slow (2.79s) and his FSP is poor (97.12%).
• The Synergy: He drops massively in class from a £300k Class 2 to a £6k Class 4. However, the tracking data perfectly backs up the Timeform comment ("merely passed beaten horses"). He is completely out of form and lacks the tactical acceleration to get involved.
• Return Of The Gods (4/1)is the ultimate "high-ceiling, high-risk" enigma in this race.
  
  Looking at the raw mathematics and his physical profile, he is a horse with massive unexposed potential, but he carries a glaring tactical red flag for a 6-furlong sprint around Kempton.
  
  Here is the exact algorithmic evaluation of his profile:
  
  

  1. The Algorithmic Ceiling (The Positives) ​

  • Peak Class Output: His LTO Custom Class Rating (CCR) spiked to 81.0. This ties him perfectly with our top pick, Arry Up, for the highest recent class output in the field.
  • The "p" Factor: Timeform has attached a "p" to his 80p rating, explicitly stating he is "still green" and "will go on improving." We have not seen his physical limit yet.
  • Market Efficiency: He boasts a 65.2% PR%, making him the most market-efficient horse in the race. When the money comes for him, he delivers.
  • Late Retention: His 102.28% FSP shows that once he gets rolling, he finishes his races very strongly.

• 2. The Biomechanical Red Flag (The Negative) ​

  • The Sluggish Break: This is where the tracking data rings the alarm bells. His 0-20 mph break LTO was a very slow 2.93s. That is the slowest acceleration metric among our primary contenders (compared to Night Mission's 2.31s and Arry Up's 2.56s).
  • The Kempton Factor: Kempton's 6-furlong layout features a relatively short run into a sharp right-handed bend. A 2.93s break means Return Of The Gods is going to be outpaced immediately when the stalls open.

• 3. The Tactical Verdict​

  Because he is so slow out of the gates, Return Of The Gods is going to find himself buried in the pack or caught wide early on (Timeform already noted he had to overcome a "wide trip" to win LTO).
  
  To win this race, he will have to expend significant energy navigating through traffic on the bend, while Night Mission and Arry Up get an easy, energy-saving trip on the front end.
  
  The Conclusion: He undoubtedly has the raw class engine (81.0 CCR) to win a Class 4 handicap, but his starting mechanics (2.93s) make him tactically vulnerable today. He is a fantastic horse to include in Exactas and Trifectas because of his strong late kick,

The Ultimate RaceIQ & Class Super Summary Chart (7.30 Kempton)​

Horse Name	LTO / R2 / R3 CCR	LTO / R2 / R3 TFR	LTO / R2 / R3 Tfig	PR%	0-20 mph	LTO FSP	Top Speed	Last 3 Timeform Comments (1=LTO, 2=Run 2, 3=Run 3)	Odds
Arry Up	81.0 / 71.0 / 36.1	80 / 70 / 58	69 / 55 / 34	61.3%	2.56s	104.37%	39.95 mph	1: Took form up another notch, pulled clear near finish. 2: Improved with each run, stayed on well to lead. 3: Fared better than previously, something to build on.	15/8
Return Of The Gods	81.0 / 72.0 / N/A	80p / 77 / N/A	62 / 64 / N/A	65.2%	2.93s	102.28%	40.37 mph	1: Confirmed debut promise, just held on, still green. 2: Showed plenty to work on amid greenness, kept on. 3: (Only 2 career runs)	4/1
Night Mission	72.4 / 52.5 / 64.0	73 / 66 / 73	60 / 66 / 69	24.5%	2.31s	101.73%	40.45 mph	1: Matched form of promising debut, headed final strides. 2: Still green, failed to progress, not quicken. 3: Made encouraging start to career, ran on.	7/1
Hallo Spaceboy	77.0 / 73.1 / 65.0	76 / 77 / 74	75 / 70 / 48	55.8%	2.79s	97.30%	41.93 mph	1: Didn't need to improve, diminishing advantage inside final 1f. 2: Ran to similar level, not quicken late on. 3: Promising first effort, no extra final 50 yds.	2/1
Goldwork	55.1 / 57.5 / 55.6	68 / 49 / 70	74 / 42 / 41	15.4%	2.79s	97.12%	41.59 mph	1: Had next to no chance at weights, merely passed horses. 2: Shaped better than distance beaten suggests, weakened. 3: Sweated up, wasn't in same form, weakened.	15/2

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Well Done Dave good to have the same consensus horse winning . and not an excel sheet in site

 

[doomster]

Well done Chesham and Dave

 

[Leodis]

For anyone who likes the best of both worlds (Excel & AI) then this could be the perfect marriage.

You will need a licence for Copilot in Excel, but I think the personal version is quite cheap per month. I have free access to the developer license, as we use it at work.

Regards

 

[Chesham]

For anyone who likes the best of both worlds (Excel & AI) then this could be the perfect marriage.

You will need a licence for Copilot in Excel, but I think the personal version is quite cheap per month. I have free access to the developer license, as we use it at work.

Regards

interesting to see how you get on with it . I am not on windows only Apple and Numbers.

 

[JennyK]

Leodis

Given your work experience with Copilot, what would it add to Excel? I imagine it might be useful for coding a complex macro that some of us, me included, can't. Would it help with what for me is the time-consuming task of downloading results (for which I use the Post)?

 

[Larry]

Dave i don’t wish to aftertime & no im not finding winner after winner in fact id say my strike rate has stayed the same but i will say its given me additional insight to use alongside methods i was already using, so i just wanted to say thank you for the help

 

[Chesham]

Well done Chesham and Dave

Thanks doomster

 

[Leodis]

interesting to see how you get on with it . I am not on windows only Apple and Numbers.

I'm not up on Apple products, but I believe Numbers has 'Apple Intelligence' and its equivalent to Copilot is called Siri or something. Not sure how developed it is though.

 

[Leodis]

Leodis

Given your work experience with Copilot, what would it add to Excel? I imagine it might be useful for coding a complex macro that some of us, me included, can't. Would it help with what for me is the time-consuming task of downloading results (for which I use the Post)?

Hi JennyK,

Copilot can be used as an in-cell function or general chat interface that can update your sheet on the fly with whatever you ask of it. Here is an overview:

Macros are quite easy to build if you use the record function

Not sure what you mean by downloading from RP. Are you scraping. copy & pasting?

Regards