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Today's All Weather Racing

19:00 at Newcastle

I’m on Container Express for an each-way play. He’s a bit of a local specialist here, and his LTO RaceIQ numbers from his third-place finish last month tell a very specific story.


The Early Pace & The Draw

The RaceIQ metrics from his LTO (Fast Pace, -1.33 Vs. Par) prove that he was right in the heart of a "burn up" early on last time. He did a lot of work too soon, which explains that 96.21% FSP, he just didn't have enough gas left to hold off the late challengers.

Today he’s drawn in Stall 7 right in the middle. Ideally, Aiden Brookes will look for a "tow" into the race. There is plenty of pace to his outside (look for Auspicious in stall 10 to blast off). If Container Express can just sit a length or two off that initial "fast" lead rather than joining it.

There’s no massive draw bias today, being in the middle (7) is a great "sight-line" position for a jockey to choose whether to track the rail or move outside.

That 96.21% FSP (Finishing Speed Percentage) shows he actually tired a little late after that fast start. If the jockey, Aiden Brookes, can just get him to relax for the first two furlongs today, he should have a much bigger "kick" at the finish.


This horse clearly loves the Tapeta up north.
He’s already a winner over this course and distance (back in November).

His 3rd here on Feb 10th was a solid effort. He was only beaten by 1.5 lengths after being right in the thick of a three-way battle for the places. He’s running off the same mark (OR 50) tonight, so he’s definitely "well-in" on his best form.

He’s currently sitting around 7/2 to 9/2. He isn't the "steamroll" favorite, but he’s very steady in the market. This is a classic "each-way" price because the bookies know he’s reliable over this track.

Auspicious is the current favorite (around 3/1). He won over C&D late last year but was a bit disappointing when returning from a break. The market is betting on him improving for that run.


The Main Dangers

Auspicious (Stall 10): As mentioned, he’s the class horse if he returns to his November win form. He’ll likely lead or be very close to it.

Ganthorpe (Stall 5): He finished just behind Container Express last time and has since run a cracking race at Wolverhampton. He’s a big threat if he gets the run of the race.

Runninman (Stall 2): He’s been knocking on the door with three consecutive 3rd place finishes earlier this year. He’s a maiden, but one that’s going to pop eventually.


My Verdict: Container Express He’s proven at the track, has the same jockey who knows him inside out, and his metrics suggest that if the early pace is just a fraction steadier than last time, he could easily turn that 3rd into a 1st.

My Bets
Container Express EW @ 6 (backed last night)
 
I’ve just been looking into the 20:15 at Southwell, and How Impressive is an absolute standout for an each-way (EW) play. He’s a real "horses for courses" type, and his LTO RaceIQ numbers are basically a roadmap for tonight.


Here’s my take on why he’s a massive player:


The Early Pace & Draw

The RaceIQ stats from last time out (Even Pace, -1.07 Vs. Par) show he was kept in a great rhythm. He didn't burn himself out, and that 101.74% FSP (Finishing Speed Percentage) is very good. It shows he finished the race almost perfectly at his average speed, which is a sign of a horse in peak condition.

The Draw (Stall 8): He’s drawn out wide, but for a horse that likes to be prominent or even lead, this isn't a disaster. It gives Jack Callan (claiming 5lb) plenty of room to decide whether to blast across and take the rail or sit just off the speed.

The Speed Threat: Packetofbiscuits (Stall 2) is the big danger and will likely want the lead too. If they don't get into a "suicide duel" early, then How Impressive should have plenty left for the final furlong.


Previous C&D Form. This is where it gets interesting. How Impressive is a C&D winner here at Southwell.

He’s run some of his absolute best races on this surface. He actually beat a decent field over this track and trip last year, and even when he’s been beaten here, it’s usually by narrow margins.

He comes here off a very solid 2nd at Kempton just 9 days ago. He was a "Beaten Favorite" there, which often means the bookies (and the public) know the engine is still very much intact.

He’s currently floating around 13/2 to 15/2. In a field of 9 runners, that is a fantastic EW price.

The market is very focused on Goldmoyne (the "Newmarket" pick) and Packetofbiscuits. Because the money is going there, we’re getting a much better price on a horse with just as much, if not more, course experience.


The Main Dangers

Packetofbiscuits: The obvious threat. He's seeking a hat-trick and loves it here, but he’s carrying a 5lb penalty which might just anchor him enough for us to reel him in.

Goldmoyne: Won well at Newcastle 5 days ago and is turned out quickly. He’s dangerous but has to prove he can replicate that form on Southwell’s slightly different surface.

Bee My Honey: A recent winner at Chelmsford. She’s progressive, but this is a step up in class for her.


My Verdict:

How Impressive is the "percentage call." He’s a course specialist, he’s in form, and he’s got a 5lb claimer taking the weight off his back. Those RaceIQ metrics show he's running efficiently, and at 15/2, he's the perfect candidate to hit the frame or better.

My Bets

How Impressive EW @ 8.5 BOG
 
I’ve had a look at the 19:30 at Newcastle, and honestly, Gustav Graves is a good each-way (EW) shout tonight. RaceIQ metrics from his last run are the real "secret sauce" for this race.

Here is why I think he’s such a solid play:

The Early Pace & Draw

LTO metrics (Even Pace, -1.27 Vs. Par) from his 2nd place at Wolverhampton 9 days ago show he’s in a really efficient groove. He didn't gas himself out early, and that 102.72% FSP (Finishing Speed Percentage) proves he stayed on strongly right to the line.

He’s drawn out in 7 of 8, which I actually quite like for him. It gives Joanna Mason a clear view of the "burn up" on his inside.

The Speed Map has Azucena (Stall 8) is his immediate neighbour and is a confirmed front-runner. She’ll likely blast out and try to get to the rail. If Gustav can just tuck in behind her, he’ll get the perfect tow into the race without having to do the hard work of leading himself.

Previous Newcastle Form is always important and he’s a bit of a course veteran! He’s a course and distance winner here, and while he’s done a lot of his winning at Wolverhampton lately, his Newcastle form is rock solid (he was 2nd here in a Class 5 back in January).

He’s back down to a mark of 60. To put that in perspective, that’s the exact same rating he had when he won his last race in December. He’s essentially "well-in" and ready to strike.


He’s currently sitting around 6/1 to 13/2. In an 8-runner race, that is a textbook each-way price.

Fortunate Star (10/3) and Master Dandy (4/1) are taking most of the market attention because they’re coming off wins. That’s helping us get a much better price on Gustav, who is arguably just as consistent.


The Main Dangers

Fortunate Star (Stall 5): The big danger. He’s looking for a hat-trick and won over C&D just 5 days ago. He’s in the form of his life, but he’s carrying a penalty today.


Azucena (Stall 8): If she gets a "soft" lead and isn't pressured, she could be hard to reel in over this 5f trip.


Master Dandy (Stall 6): Won well at Chelmsford last time. He’s only up 2lb for that and is a very tough competitor.


My Verdict:
Gustav Graves is a "safe" traveler. He’s fit, he’s running off a winning mark, and his metrics show he’s finishing his races with plenty of power. In a sprint that could get messy up front, his ability to sit just off the pace and pounce makes him a very strong EW candidate.

My Bets
Gustav Graves EW @ 7.5 BOG
 
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Newcastle meeting. There may be more to follow later.

Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on

Yesterday’s blog results were disappointing, but that occasionally happens. It’s a case of following the process and learning and refining along the way.

I’ve had a look at the 18:45 at Newcastle, and I think Irish Nectar is the standout play to get the job done tonight. When you dig into the RaceIQ metrics from his recent reappearance at Kempton, you start to see why he’s a massive threat back on a galloping track.

Here is why I’m siding with him:
The "big key” here is his LTO metric (104.1% FSP) from that 2nd place at Kempton 22 days ago. Posting a finishing speed percentage that high suggests he was finishing like a train in a fast run race which suggests he has a massive "hidden" engine.

Physically, he’s an improver. His Kempton data suggests he’s physically matured and now has an kingoperating in the 7.42m – 7.48m bracket. On the stiff Newcastle finish, that extra reach allows him to cover more ground than the "busy" sprinters when the fatigue kicks in.


The Speed Map & Race Setup
He’s drawn in the middle, which is fine for a horse with his closing speed. The key is the early burn: Almarada Prince (Stall 2) is a front-runner who is likely to blast off.

If Irish Nectar can just sit in the slipstream of that early pace, his king stride potential means he can "glide" past them on the hill. He doesn’t need to do the hard work early; he just needs the gaps to open at the two-furlong pole to use that superior extension.


Previous Course Form
He’s no stranger to the North East. He ran a solid race here back in November on his debut for the yard, but he looks like a much more "finished" article now. The fact he went so close at Kempton, a track that shouldn't have suited his long-reaching style as much as this straight mile tells me he is absolutely primed for a big 2026.


The Market & Value
He’s currently hovering around 4/1 to 9/2. In a competitive Class 4, that’s a fair price for a horse that the metrics say is a Class 3 talent in waiting.

Beale Street (7/1) and Raatea (6/1) are taking a lot of the "course specialist" money, which is giving us a bit of extra juice on the horse with the higher physical ceiling.


The Main Dangers
Beale Street (Stall 1): The "Course Master." He’s a three-time C&D winner and was only beaten a head here 16 days ago.


Raatea (Stall 9): The class veteran. Even at age 9, he showed he still has it with back-to-back Newcastle places this year.


Almarada Prince (Stall 2): The "Dark Horse." Making a yard debut for Paul Midgley. If he’s fit after 155 days off, his high-frequency turnover could make him hard to peg back if he gets a soft lead.


My Verdict:
Irish Nectar is the "Progressive " horse. His metrics show he’s finishing his races with way more power than his current rating suggests. In a race full of exposed course specialists, his ability to use his stride on the climb makes him the most likely winner for me.


My Bets
Irish Nectar EW @ 5.5 (BOG)
 
I’ve had a look at the 20:15 at Newcastle, and I think Call Glory is a massive each-way (EW) shout tonight. While the field is competitive, the RaceIQ metrics and his recent consistency make him a really solid "maths play" at the current prices.

The Metric Logic & Turn-of-Foot
The real "secret" for Call Glory is his consistency in rhythm. While he doesn’t have the massive reach, his RaceIQ profile shows a very high-efficiency frequency (SPS). In his last few starts, he’s been hitting a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of around 102-103%, proving he’s finishing his races with plenty of power.

He’s a "Metronome" horse. He doesn't gas himself out early, and on the stiff Newcastle finish, that ability to maintain his turnover while others are shortening their stride is exactly what you want for an EW bet.


The Draw & Tactical Setup
He’s drawn in Stall 1, which is often seen as a negative at Newcastle, but for a horse like Call Glory who likes to sit just off the pace, it could work perfectly.

The Speed Map shows Front Gunner (Stall 5) and Operation Gimcrack (Stall 10) likely to push forward early. This should create a decent "tow" into the race. Luke Morris is a master at navigating these Class 6 handicaps; expect him to keep Call Glory tucked in along the rail, saving every inch of ground before launching a challenge in the final furlong.

Previous Newcastle Form
He’s becoming a bit of a regular here! He’s placed on his last two starts over this course and distance (7f), including a very close 3rd just 16 days ago. He was only beaten a length that day in a race where the form is already starting to look solid.

He’s currently running off a mark of 57. He won twice at Southwell in January off 49, and while he’s up in the weights, He’s essentially at his peak right now.


The Market & Value
He’s currently sitting around 11/1 to 14/1. In a wide-open 12-runner handicap, getting double-digit odds on a horse that has finished in the top three in 4 of his last 5 starts is for me textbook EW value.

Pit Boss (3/1) and Front Gunner (5/1) are taking most of the market oxygen because they’ve been "eye-catchers," but Call Glory is arguably just as reliable and at three times the price.


The Main Dangers
Operation Gimcrack (Stall 10): The big threat. He won over C&D 16 days ago (beating Call Glory) and is only up 2lb for that. He’s clearly in a rich vein of form.

Front Gunner (Stall 5): A massive danger if he gets a "soft" lead. He’s been dropped in grade slightly and the Timeform ratings have him as a major player tonight.

Pit Boss (Stall 8): Very consistent and has been knocking on the door. He’ll be the one many people see as the "safe" play, but his price is getting a bit thin.


My Verdict:
Call Glory is a "Percentage Play." He’s fit, he loves the surface, and his metrics show he’s a highly efficient galloper who doesn't know how to run a bad race. In a field where half the runners have questions to answer, his reliability makes him a rock-solid EW candidate.


My Bets

Call Glory EW @ 13.0 (BOG)
 
Chesham said:
Hi Dave Dave have you discovered AI
👍
Click to expand...
I have written my blog and put it in to AI to see if it can write and word it better. I’m focusing strongly on the RaceIQ stats that I keep a record of and I’m not straying from my principles even though the races recently haven’t worked out. I’m still hungry to find value and that might be to my detriment.
 
Dave Dave

I've looked at the 6.45 and 7.15 Newcastle today and agree with you in respect of the former insofar as I see Irish Nectar as the most likely winner though I prefer the horses I back to have been with their current trainers for rather longer.

My purpose in posting, though, is to ask whether you have looked at the 7.15. Your recent winner Grant Wood runs again and having studied his career I'm struck by the fact that in both 2024 and last year he ran two excellent races at the start before tailing off for four months in 2024 and for the whole of the rest of 2025.

He started well again this year with a win in the race for which you selected him, so if the pattern of the last two years is repeated he should be there, or thereabouts, today, though there are some interesting "returners" who at their best could win this, Trilby for one. The trouble with "returners" is that one can't be sure whether they are fully fit and trying to try to win first time out, or running as part of getting to peak fitness for the ever-closer turf season.

:)
 
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Sorry for the late reply JennyK JennyK. It’s been busy recently as my mother in law recently passed away. The grandkids have been unwell and I’ve got a chest infection.

Yes I backed Grant Wood.

I was really disappointed with Irish Nectar.

I had a nice win today with Borgi at 6/1.

I really thought Asian Journey would win the Southwell 19:20. I thought Marry The Night was drawn too wide and would expend too much energy trying to get a good position. How wrong was I. Asian Journey hit traffic issues which was disappointing.
 
Sorry to hear of your loss and other problems, Dave Dave.

Thin aw card tomorrow and nothing of interest to me in the sprint handicap. Good luck if you find something.
 
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Southwell meeting. There may be more to follow later.

Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on

Wolverhampton 19:30
This seven-runner sprint looks an interesting tactical affair and the pace angle could easily decide the outcome.

Three front runners line up in Beauzon, Twilight Madnessand Digital, all of them like to get on with things. That should ensure a solid gallop from the outset and there’s every chance the lead becomes contested. In small-field sprints at Wolverhampton, that early pace battle can often decide the race before they even straighten for home.

Beauzon arrives in excellent form having rattled off a sequence of wins and once again tops the ratings. He’s also a course and distance winner. Stall 1 looks ideal for his usual attacking style and if he breaks well he should be able to grab the rail and attempt to dictate. The RaceIQ data backs up his fat early pace.

The slight nagging doubt is that long winning runs don’t last forever, and with other pace angles in the race he may not get things entirely his own way this time. That said he looks a strong candidate to extend his winning sequence in this race.

Twilight Madness is a regular here and a proven course-and-distance winner. He has the speed to be involved early but his efforts can flatten out late if the early fractions are strong, something that could easily happen in this race.

Digital is another who likes to go forward and could add to the early pressure, though he arrives off a below-par run and looks slightly less convincing than the principals.

If the pace becomes contested, the race may well set up for something finishing late and Water Of Leith fits that scenario well. He tends to track the speed rather than force it and regularly finishes his races strongly here, so a strong early gallop would play right into his hands. His RaceIQ data tells me that he’s going to be involved at the business end.

Mumayaz is another capable of finishing well and could pick up the pieces if things totally collapse up front.

My Verdict
On pure form Beauzon sets the standard and from stall 1, he’ll be tough to peg back if allowed to dictate. However, with several pace rivals in the line-up, this could become a little more tactical than it first appears. If they go too hard early, Water Of Leith looks the one most likely to capitalise late, with Mumayaz another who could run on into the places if the leaders overdo things.

My Bets

Beauzon and Water Of Leith. Reverse Forecast
 
Dave Dave These are my figures for the race.

timecoursehorseformclassrating
19:30​
WolverhamptonMart
37​
6​
64.1​
19:30​
WolverhamptonWater Of Leith
43​
6​
79​
19:30​
WolverhamptonBeauzon
54​
6​
110​
19:30​
WolverhamptonDigital
40​
6​
62.7​
19:30​
WolverhamptonSilky Robin
31​
6​
51.8​
19:30​
WolverhamptonTwilight Madness
35​
6​
76​
19:30​
WolverhamptonMumayaz
32​
6​
53.7​
 
Good luck with your bet, Dave Dave.

For me the unanswerable question is how much (if anything) Beauzon had in hand when he won on 03/03/26, which was very comparable in class to today’s. He won by 1l and is off a 9lb higher mark. If that was as good as he is, he should not be able to win today, but for all we know he may have had plenty in reserve and been able to win by 4l or 5l if the jockey had wanted him to. I am not worried about the weight per se, as he has shown he can handle it. Just whether today will prove a step too high in class at his current OR or whether he had enough in reserve on 03/03/26 to be able to take this one in his stride.

Connections probably have a fair idea but as an outsider I can’t see any way of knowing. So I won’t be backing him, but neither do I want to oppose him.

Water Of Leith will probably win one day and why not today, but equally why? He is not an attractive price for a horse now on a losing streak of 19, seven this year and with one exception around the same class as today's and off much the same OR.

Mumayas looks a much saner price and on my performance ratings would win or go very close if he could run as well as he did on 28/11/25. Below his last winning mark for the first time and running in the weakest field since then (on an average OR basis), I fully understand why my friend is having a few pounds on him. I may regret not joining him but I’m going to sit this one out.
 
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Hi Dave Dave when I click on the Horses names in your post I get taken to a site called Talking Horses, not heard of that before, Any info on that site
 
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Wolverhampton meeting. There may be more to follow later.

Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on

18:30 WOLVERHAMPTON

I’ve taken a close look at tomorrow’s 18:30 at Wolverhampton (Tuesday, March 17, 2026). This is a Class 6 Classified Stakes over 1m 1f 104y on the Tapeta.

Classified races can be tricky because the runners are often tightly matched by their ratings, but we have a fascinating rematch here between two horses that finished 1st and 2nd over this exact course and distance just two weeks ago.

Here is my breakdown of my two main interests:

Arlecchino's Rex

• Age/Sex: 4yo Bay Gelding

• Trainer: Mark Usher (Form: 14% strike rate last 14 days)

• Jockey: Jason Watson (Form: 25% strike rate last 14 days)

• C&D Stats: 1 win from 1 run at this specific distance; 2 wins total at Wolverhampton.



My Analysis:
I'm seeing a horse that has found a new lease of life since stepping up to this trip. He won a similar C&D event on March 3rd, beating Al Shabab by a length.

RaceiQ & Performance Notes: In that last win, he recorded a Timeform Performance Rating of 54, which is a career-high for him. His sectional data showed a very efficient "Finish Speed Percentage" (FSP) of roughly 101%, meaning he didn't just crawl home, he sustained his gallop well.

Having Jason Watson back in the plate is a massive plus; they clearly click, and Watson's current 25% strike rate suggests he's riding with plenty of confidence.


Al Shabab

• Age/Sex: 5yo Bay Gelding

• Trainer: David Evans (Form: 8% strike rate last 14 days)

• Jockey: Rossa Ryan (Form: 13% strike rate last 14 days)

• C&D Stats: 0 wins from 2 runs at this distance, but has placed 2nd in both.

My Analysis:
He is the definition of "knocking on the door." He has finished 2nd in three of his last four starts.

RaceiQ & Performance Notes: Looking at his metrics from the March 3rd race against Arlecchino's Rex, he actually covered more ground than the winner after being forced slightly wide. His Speed Figure (44) was slightly lower than Rex's, but he was carrying 4lb more that day. Tomorrow, they meet on level weights (9-9), which technically swings the "mathematical" advantage in his favor.

Having Rossa Ryan riding is always a positive but quite often we see the market over react with this particular jockey. I think this is what we are seeing now as he’s the current market favourite.

The big worry for me is his strike rate. He is 1-for-33 career. He often travels like the best horse in the race (showing high in-running speed metrics) but finds one or two too good when the pressure is applied in the final furlong.

My Take: This is a close rematch. Arlecchino's Rex has the better draw, better tactical profile, and has already beaten Al Shabab over this exact C&D two weeks ago. Al Shabab is simply more beatable as he seems to lack a killer turn of foot and as a result often finds one too good.

If I have to choose, I’m siding with Arlecchino's Rex. While the weights favor Al Shabab this time, Rex looked like he had more in the tank at the finish last time, and Mark Usher’s yard is currently in better form than David Evans’. Al Shabab is the "logical" danger, but his win-rate makes him hard to trust for the top spot.

My Bets

Arlecchino's Rex Win bet @ 4.0

Al Shabab Win bet @ 3.0
 
Wolverhampton 20:00

I’ve been looking over the 8:00 PM sprint at Wolverhampton tomorrow, and I’m interested in Luna Beaux.

We are looking at a 12-runner field over the 6f Tapeta track. It’s a 3-year-old handicap, which always makes me a little nervous because these young horses can find 5–10 lbs of improvement overnight!
Luna Beaux is drawn in stall 7, carrying an OR of 59 with Finley Marsh in the saddle. The big thing for me is the class drop. She is dropping from a Class 5 back down to a Class 6 where she’s already proven she can win.

For me she is absolutely a 6f specialist. That 7f run last time out clearly stretched her stamina, so coming back to this "6f and a bit" trip is perfect. She loves this surface. Her cadence based on RaceIQ metrics remains rhythmic and high on Tapeta, which allows her to travel easily through the mid-section of the race. The thing that concerns me the most in the race is traffic problems. She isn't a "gap-threader." She’s a long-striding, high-turnover sprinter who needs to build momentum. If she gets checked or shuffled back from Stall 7, it's very hard for her to get back into her stride.

I’ve looked at the early speed figures for the rest of the field, and this is going to be a pace battle up front:
  1. Faithful Dream (Stall 2) is likely to jump out and try to grab the rail.
  2. Mademoiselle Belle and Runamara both have high early-pace ratings.
  3. Backfire is another one that likes to be right there.
This is a high-pressure race. While a fast pace usually helps closers, Luna Beaux is more of a "stalker." If she gets trapped in a pocket while the leaders are fanning out, she’ll be a "hard-luck story" in the stewards' report.

Looking at performance ratings, she has lots of raw ability, Clearly one of the best in the race at this level. The trip is perfect for her, she's a C&D winner, The speed is good, but the "pressure" might be too much. Being drawn in 7 isn't great in a 12 runner sprint but at least she's not drawn higher and in the car park.

Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Southwell meeting. There may be more to follow later.

My Bets
Luna Beaux EW bet @ 5.0
 
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