simon boardman
Mare
Half way through it , there is lots of advice to look at the races in a different way , rather than just looking at Ratings . Never looked at Racing UK Racecards before so that will take a bit of time to navigate them .
Today's All Weather Racing
- Thread starter Dave
- Start date
simon boardman
Mare
My first question to
Dave would be how does the Weather effect the surfaces. I remember hearing on ATR one time , that during really cold weather they harrow the surface a lot which can effect the Pace mechanics. I think they likened it to running on a sandy beach which meant Hold Up horses were at a disadvantage ? This could also create a golden highway along the inside rail as this area did not get harrowed so well. They also mentioned heavy rain would compact the surface which would favour a lone Front runner but also give the hold up horses a chance if there was a Pace burn up and they went too quick ? May have got that all upside down but i can remember when looking into AW racing before we had RaceIQ etc , the hardest part was trying to deduce intent from the Connections , Trainer , Jockey etc. I have mentioned on here before , talking to a good mate at work who part owns Racehorses there is many small ways to stop a horse , one of the easy ways is missing the break . I note you mention you dont use Ratings but an Average Horse ability wise, needs to be placed correctly and then it is down to the Horse and the hope they are on a going day !! Anyway , all interesting !
Dave would be how does the Weather effect the surfaces. I remember hearing on ATR one time , that during really cold weather they harrow the surface a lot which can effect the Pace mechanics. I think they likened it to running on a sandy beach which meant Hold Up horses were at a disadvantage ? This could also create a golden highway along the inside rail as this area did not get harrowed so well. They also mentioned heavy rain would compact the surface which would favour a lone Front runner but also give the hold up horses a chance if there was a Pace burn up and they went too quick ? May have got that all upside down but i can remember when looking into AW racing before we had RaceIQ etc , the hardest part was trying to deduce intent from the Connections , Trainer , Jockey etc. I have mentioned on here before , talking to a good mate at work who part owns Racehorses there is many small ways to stop a horse , one of the easy ways is missing the break . I note you mention you dont use Ratings but an Average Horse ability wise, needs to be placed correctly and then it is down to the Horse and the hope they are on a going day !! Anyway , all interesting !
Dave
Gelding
Glad to see another decent priced winner go in. Not sure what the P&L is for my selections since I started posting but my betting bank has benefited. This forum for me has been like finding and wearing your lucky pants. I do think luck plays it’s part, however you still need to put the work in to get the rewards.
Newcastle 16:45
Interesting little 3year old class 6 handicap over 1M 4F. There are 6 runners but it looks like a 3 horse race to me. The three contenders in my eyes are Wicksey, Lord Mayor and Trust No One.
Wicksey is a 3Year old gelding and the current favourite having won well last time out at Newcastle over 1M 2F beating Trust No One by 2.25 lengths. His race metrics look strong and at this point I can’t see a reason to believe that form will be reversed today. He’s obviously a big player in this race.
Lord Mayor is 3 year old colt trained by Andrew Balding. He last ran 24 days ago finishing 3rd LTO at Lingfield in a class 5 race over 1M 2F by 1.75 lengths. The race metrics show this was a strong run race. He lost to two good horses from the Varian and Johnstone stables.
Today, he’s dropping into a class 6 race over 1M 4 F. He’s raced 4 times and is yet to win a race. The fact that Wicksey has already won a race at the course is good reason for why he is the current favourite. However, we don’t know how he will handle the increase in distance. This might be the reason why Trust No One’s owners and trainer feel it’s worth having another crack at him.
For me there is a very positive factor in this race and that is Andrew Balding has chosen to bring the horse to Newcastle. It’s a long journey and there are plenty of races closer to home he could run in. Andrew Balding has a very good record at Newcastle. In the past two years he’s had 107 runners with 34 winners for a strike rate of 32% which is very impressive based on the number of runners. What is even more impressive is when Jason Watson rides for him at Newcastle. They have combined 16 times in the past two years and won 8 of the races for an incredible 50% strike rate.
Wicksey is trading at around 2.4 and Lord Mayor is at 5.0 over double the price. I feel there is little between them but at the prices I have to go for Lord Mayor.
Lord Mayor win bet @ 5.0 BOG
Newcastle 16:45
Interesting little 3year old class 6 handicap over 1M 4F. There are 6 runners but it looks like a 3 horse race to me. The three contenders in my eyes are Wicksey, Lord Mayor and Trust No One.
Wicksey is a 3Year old gelding and the current favourite having won well last time out at Newcastle over 1M 2F beating Trust No One by 2.25 lengths. His race metrics look strong and at this point I can’t see a reason to believe that form will be reversed today. He’s obviously a big player in this race.
Lord Mayor is 3 year old colt trained by Andrew Balding. He last ran 24 days ago finishing 3rd LTO at Lingfield in a class 5 race over 1M 2F by 1.75 lengths. The race metrics show this was a strong run race. He lost to two good horses from the Varian and Johnstone stables.
Today, he’s dropping into a class 6 race over 1M 4 F. He’s raced 4 times and is yet to win a race. The fact that Wicksey has already won a race at the course is good reason for why he is the current favourite. However, we don’t know how he will handle the increase in distance. This might be the reason why Trust No One’s owners and trainer feel it’s worth having another crack at him.
For me there is a very positive factor in this race and that is Andrew Balding has chosen to bring the horse to Newcastle. It’s a long journey and there are plenty of races closer to home he could run in. Andrew Balding has a very good record at Newcastle. In the past two years he’s had 107 runners with 34 winners for a strike rate of 32% which is very impressive based on the number of runners. What is even more impressive is when Jason Watson rides for him at Newcastle. They have combined 16 times in the past two years and won 8 of the races for an incredible 50% strike rate.
Wicksey is trading at around 2.4 and Lord Mayor is at 5.0 over double the price. I feel there is little between them but at the prices I have to go for Lord Mayor.
Lord Mayor win bet @ 5.0 BOG
Dave
Gelding
You have to try and look at things differently and see what works and doesn’t work. It’s all a big learning curve.
Dave
Gelding
Hi Simon, you’ve brought up some interesting points. Let’s start with Harrowing. To my knowledge and I stand to be corrected there is no information as to when and how deep they are going to harrow.My first question to
As you know Harrowing an all-weather racecourse basically means a tractor dragging specialist equipment across the race surface to loosen and remix the top layer of the track.
It does have a noticeable impact on the track and race times in particular, especially if it’s been deep harrowed. When the surface is compact the horse can run faster. Once harrowed it certainly slows the pace down. It rides deeper so horse with more stamina benefit and front runners can easily tire earlier than normal.
How I try to spot when it’s been harrowed. I use the first couple of race to compare the finishing time for that distance. If the races are like 1.5 to 2.5 seconds slower then it indicates the surface is running slow and most likely caused by harrowing. The opposite is when it’s compacted you see several races run faster than expected.
Hold up horses can and do struggle as it’s harder to accelerate. Prominent horse with strong FSP% are favourable in these conditions.
Days of continuous rainfall also can have a big impact to those running closer to the inner rail as the drainage is helped with a slight camber. Wolverhampton the other day was a classic the rail ground was dead. Most winners came up the centre of the course.
There are so many variables to try and account for. But not as many as running on the turf.
The other point about trainers. It’s most certainly a case that all trainers work the handicap system. One of the biggest factors is looking for intent. It might just be the owner(s) have a planned day out and the horses is ready for the occasion.
Missing the break is the easiest way especially in sprint races to give a genuine reason for a horse not performing as expected. It happens all the time but how can you plan for that is an impossibility unless you are in the know.
Glad you are liking my book.
Cheers Dave
simon boardman
Mare
Chesham
Sire
Hi
Dave
Snap we have covered the same race. I posted this earlier this morning. The EW Price mentioned has long gone since Posting
This is the full transcript (Not bale to screen shot it all
Each Way Type
Based on the pedigree data and the specific conditions for the Newcastle 16:45 (Tuesday, February 10, 2026), here is a comprehensive analysis of Contemplation (GB).
Conclusion: Contemplation is the quintessential "pedigree improver." His three runs to date were likely a means to an end—securing a low handicap mark and building fitness for a middle-distance campaign. On paper, the 12.5f trip at Newcastle should unlock significantly more ability than he has shown to date.
In the 4.45 at Newcastle, Contemplation faces a small but competitive field of 3-year-olds. While your pedigree analysis suggests he is the "sleeper" in the pack, there are three key rivals who have already proven they can handle this significant step up in distance.
Contemplation is currently the "dark horse" at around 9/1. With Harry Vigors taking a further 7lbs off his back with his apprentice claim, Contemplation effectively carries only 8st 7lb. This makes him a massive 16lbs better off than Lord Mayor and 10lbs better off than Wicksey when you factor in the penalty.
Dave Snap we have covered the same race. I posted this earlier this morning. The EW Price mentioned has long gone since Posting
This is the full transcript (Not bale to screen shot it all
Each Way Type
Based on the pedigree data and the specific conditions for the Newcastle 16:45 (Tuesday, February 10, 2026), here is a comprehensive analysis of Contemplation (GB).
Horse Overview
- Trainer: James Ferguson
- Owner: Michael Buckley
- Current Mark: 54 (Handicap debut)
- The Move: Stepping up from 8.5f (Wolverhampton) to 12.5f (Newcastle). This is a significant +4f increase in distance and a drop into Class 6 company.
Pedigree Analysis
The Sire: Zarak (FR)
Contemplation is a son of Zarak, one of the most exciting young sires in Europe.- Stamina Profile: Zarak himself won the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud over 12f and was second in the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) over 10.5f.
- Progeny Tendencies: While he can produce milers, his best offspring (like Zagrey and Haya Zark) excel over 10f to 12f. His runners often possess a high "cruising speed" but require a trip to show their best.
- Surface: Zarak’s stock has shown high versatility, performing well on both Turf and All-Weather (Tapeta/Polytrack).
The Dam: Careful Thought (GB)
- Sire of Dam: Brazen Beau (AUS). This is the "speed" element in the pedigree. Brazen Beau was a top-tier sprinter (6f).
- The "Hidden" Stamina: Despite the sprinting influence of Brazen Beau, Careful Thought’s own pedigree includes Sharp Terms (by Kris), who produced several stayers. Careful Thought's other foal, Cognisance, showed a preference for longer trips than a pure sprint profile would suggest.
- Dosage Profile: Your provided Dosage Index of 1.15 is very low, which strongly indicates a horse geared toward stamina rather than explosive speed. A DI below 2.00 is typical for middle-distance and staying types.
The Distance Increase: 8f to 12f
The leap from 1 mile to 1.5 miles is the most critical factor today.- Novice Form: In his three qualifying runs (7f, 1m, 8.5f), Contemplation looked "one-paced"—a classic sign of a horse crying out for a longer trip. He wasn't quick enough to challenge at the finish over a mile but kept gallopng.
- The Zarak/Dubawi Factor: The grand-sire Dubawi and the sire Zarak are renowned for producing "improvers" as they age and go up in distance.
Handicap Debut & Class Drop
- Market Lead: James Ferguson has a notable 19% strike rate with handicap debutants. This suggests the stable knows how to "place" a horse once it gets a mark.
- Mark of 54: This is a very workable opening rating. His run at Wolverhampton (Class 3 Novice) was against far superior opposition than he faces today in a Class 6.
Final Verdict
| Factor | Assessment |
| Pedigree | Strong 10-12f influence from Zarak; low Dosage Index suggests 1.5m is well within reach. |
| Distance | The 4-furlong step up is exactly what his pedigree and "one-paced" running style suggest he needs. |
| Class | Moving from Class 3/4 Novices to a Class 6 Handicap is a massive drop in quality. |
| Trainer | Ferguson is excellent at switching horses to handicaps over the right trip. |
Conclusion: Contemplation is the quintessential "pedigree improver." His three runs to date were likely a means to an end—securing a low handicap mark and building fitness for a middle-distance campaign. On paper, the 12.5f trip at Newcastle should unlock significantly more ability than he has shown to date.
In the 4.45 at Newcastle, Contemplation faces a small but competitive field of 3-year-olds. While your pedigree analysis suggests he is the "sleeper" in the pack, there are three key rivals who have already proven they can handle this significant step up in distance.
The Main Rivals
1. Wicksey (The Form Horse)
- Trainer: Ben Haslam | Jockey: Andrew Mullen
- Form: 008-1
- The Threat: He is the most immediate danger. Just 6 days ago, he won decisively over 1m2f at this track on his handicap debut. He looked like a relentless galloper that day, suggesting this extra 2 furlongs will suit him even better.
- Caveat: He carries a 6lb penalty for that win, which levels the playing field slightly for the unexposed horses like Contemplation.
2. Cospicua (The Distance Specialist)
- Trainer: James Tate | Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
- Form: 70-71
- The Threat: She has already done exactly what you are hoping Contemplation will do. Three weeks ago, she stepped up to 1m4f at Kempton and won at 25/1. She "swooped from the rear," showing a turn of foot at the end of a long trip.
- Caveat: She has been raised 4lbs for that win. While she handles the distance, she now has to prove she can do it on the Newcastle Tapeta surface rather than Kempton’s Polytrack.
3. Lord Mayor (The Class/Pedigree Alternative)
- Trainer: Andrew Balding | Jockey: Jason Watson
- Form: 093-3
- The Threat: Hailing from a top yard, he’s a son of Cityscape and has been ultra-consistent. He was third on his handicap debut at Lingfield (1m2f) and looks like a horse who will appreciate a more galloping track like Newcastle.
- Caveat: He is the highest-weighted horse in the race (9st 9lb), giving 9lbs to Contemplation.
Comparative Table
| Horse | Weight | OR | Key Strength |
| Lord Mayor | 9-9 | 63 | Consistent; top yard (Balding). |
| Wicksey | 9-3 (inc 6lb ex) | 51 (+6) | C&D winner last week; looks a stayer. |
| Cospicua | 9-0 | 54 | Proven winner over 12f trip. |
| Contemplation | 9-0 | 54 | Huge pedigree potential; 7lb claimer on board. |
| Trust No One | 8-13 | 53 | Recent winner at 1m2f; versatile. |
Summary for Contemplation
The race is essentially a battle of "who improves most for the trip." While Wicksey and Cospicua have the "winning" bracket next to their names, they have both been penalized by the handicapper.Contemplation is currently the "dark horse" at around 9/1. With Harry Vigors taking a further 7lbs off his back with his apprentice claim, Contemplation effectively carries only 8st 7lb. This makes him a massive 16lbs better off than Lord Mayor and 10lbs better off than Wicksey when you factor in the penalty.
Dave
Gelding
I like all the information and now you have me second guessing. It’s going to be interesting that’s for sure. I’m a big fan of the trainer.Hi
Snap we have covered the same race. I posted this earlier this morning. The EW Price mentioned has long gone since Posting
View attachment 164305
This is the full transcript (Not bale to screen shot it all
Each Way Type
Based on the pedigree data and the specific conditions for the Newcastle 16:45 (Tuesday, February 10, 2026), here is a comprehensive analysis of Contemplation (GB).
Horse Overview
- Trainer: James Ferguson
- Owner: Michael Buckley
- Current Mark: 54 (Handicap debut)
- The Move: Stepping up from 8.5f (Wolverhampton) to 12.5f (Newcastle). This is a significant +4f increase in distance and a drop into Class 6 company.
Pedigree Analysis
The Sire: Zarak (FR)
Contemplation is a son of Zarak, one of the most exciting young sires in Europe.
- Stamina Profile: Zarak himself won the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud over 12f and was second in the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) over 10.5f.
- Progeny Tendencies: While he can produce milers, his best offspring (like Zagrey and Haya Zark) excel over 10f to 12f. His runners often possess a high "cruising speed" but require a trip to show their best.
- Surface: Zarak’s stock has shown high versatility, performing well on both Turf and All-Weather (Tapeta/Polytrack).
The Dam: Careful Thought (GB)
- Sire of Dam: Brazen Beau (AUS). This is the "speed" element in the pedigree. Brazen Beau was a top-tier sprinter (6f).
- The "Hidden" Stamina: Despite the sprinting influence of Brazen Beau, Careful Thought’s own pedigree includes Sharp Terms (by Kris), who produced several stayers. Careful Thought's other foal, Cognisance, showed a preference for longer trips than a pure sprint profile would suggest.
- Dosage Profile: Your provided Dosage Index of 1.15 is very low, which strongly indicates a horse geared toward stamina rather than explosive speed. A DI below 2.00 is typical for middle-distance and staying types.
The Distance Increase: 8f to 12f
The leap from 1 mile to 1.5 miles is the most critical factor today.
- Novice Form: In his three qualifying runs (7f, 1m, 8.5f), Contemplation looked "one-paced"—a classic sign of a horse crying out for a longer trip. He wasn't quick enough to challenge at the finish over a mile but kept gallopng.
- The Zarak/Dubawi Factor: The grand-sire Dubawi and the sire Zarak are renowned for producing "improvers" as they age and go up in distance.
Handicap Debut & Class Drop
- Market Lead: James Ferguson has a notable 19% strike rate with handicap debutants. This suggests the stable knows how to "place" a horse once it gets a mark.
- Mark of 54: This is a very workable opening rating. His run at Wolverhampton (Class 3 Novice) was against far superior opposition than he faces today in a Class 6.
Final Verdict
Factor Assessment Pedigree Strong 10-12f influence from Zarak; low Dosage Index suggests 1.5m is well within reach. Distance The 4-furlong step up is exactly what his pedigree and "one-paced" running style suggest he needs. Class Moving from Class 3/4 Novices to a Class 6 Handicap is a massive drop in quality. Trainer Ferguson is excellent at switching horses to handicaps over the right trip.
Conclusion: Contemplation is the quintessential "pedigree improver." His three runs to date were likely a means to an end—securing a low handicap mark and building fitness for a middle-distance campaign. On paper, the 12.5f trip at Newcastle should unlock significantly more ability than he has shown to date.
In the 4.45 at Newcastle, Contemplation faces a small but competitive field of 3-year-olds. While your pedigree analysis suggests he is the "sleeper" in the pack, there are three key rivals who have already proven they can handle this significant step up in distance.
The Main Rivals
1. Wicksey (The Form Horse)
- Trainer: Ben Haslam | Jockey: Andrew Mullen
- Form: 008-1
- The Threat: He is the most immediate danger. Just 6 days ago, he won decisively over 1m2f at this track on his handicap debut. He looked like a relentless galloper that day, suggesting this extra 2 furlongs will suit him even better.
- Caveat: He carries a 6lb penalty for that win, which levels the playing field slightly for the unexposed horses like Contemplation.
2. Cospicua (The Distance Specialist)
- Trainer: James Tate | Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
- Form: 70-71
- The Threat: She has already done exactly what you are hoping Contemplation will do. Three weeks ago, she stepped up to 1m4f at Kempton and won at 25/1. She "swooped from the rear," showing a turn of foot at the end of a long trip.
- Caveat: She has been raised 4lbs for that win. While she handles the distance, she now has to prove she can do it on the Newcastle Tapeta surface rather than Kempton’s Polytrack.
3. Lord Mayor (The Class/Pedigree Alternative)
- Trainer: Andrew Balding | Jockey: Jason Watson
- Form: 093-3
- The Threat: Hailing from a top yard, he’s a son of Cityscape and has been ultra-consistent. He was third on his handicap debut at Lingfield (1m2f) and looks like a horse who will appreciate a more galloping track like Newcastle.
- Caveat: He is the highest-weighted horse in the race (9st 9lb), giving 9lbs to Contemplation.
Comparative Table
Horse Weight OR Key Strength Lord Mayor 9-9 63 Consistent; top yard (Balding). Wicksey 9-3 (inc 6lb ex) 51 (+6) C&D winner last week; looks a stayer. Cospicua 9-0 54 Proven winner over 12f trip. Contemplation 9-0 54 Huge pedigree potential; 7lb claimer on board. Trust No One 8-13 53 Recent winner at 1m2f; versatile. Summary for Contemplation
The race is essentially a battle of "who improves most for the trip." While Wicksey and Cospicua have the "winning" bracket next to their names, they have both been penalized by the handicapper.
Contemplation is currently the "dark horse" at around 9/1. With Harry Vigors taking a further 7lbs off his back with his apprentice claim, Contemplation effectively carries only 8st 7lb. This makes him a massive 16lbs better off than Lord Mayor and 10lbs better off than Wicksey when you factor in the penalty.
Chesham
Sire
Well handicapped winner who was 2Lb well in even with the penalty.and ran 5 Lb on last run . Ran fastest Top Speed and Gallop Out Speed
Trust3 No One 1Lb well in
Lord Mayor ran a good race and just bumped into two who it turned out were better in at the Weights and ran up to his mark
Contemplation burned up too much energy in the first 3 furlongs ran 4 Lbs worse than previous race as a result.
Last edited:
Dave
Gelding
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Southwell afternoon meeting. There may be more to follow from Kempton this evening.
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW
Southwell 14:44 - Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Handicap (0-60) (6) 4yo+
Dream Illusion
She’s an Improving 4 year old filly who is a distance winner. She who last ran 11 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 6 over 8 furlongs, finishing 1st winning by 0.30 lengths in a strong run race.
She’s running in the same class of race and over the same distance. Her highest winning mark is 62 and she runs off 60 today.
Mercurious Power
He’s an in form 8 year old gelding who’s a course and distance winner. I feel he’s well handicapped today. His highest winning mark is 75 and he is 60 today.
He last won 530 days ago and has had 14 races since. He last ran 11 days ago at Newcastle finishing 3rd to Dream Illusion in what was a strong race. The connections obviously feel they now have a chance of reversing that result. in a Class 6 over 8 furlongs, finishing 3/12 and beaten by 0.80 lengths.
My bets in this race are as follows (note I backed all selections last night so prices may well differ)
Dream Illusion EW bet @ 6.5
Mercurious Power EW bet @ 7
Southwell 16:14 - Midnite, Building The Future Of Betting Handicap (0-75) (5) 4yo+
State of Madness is an improving 5 year old gelding. He’s a distance winner and proven to be competitive. He last won 71 days ago and has had 2 races since.
He last ran 21 days ago at Kempton in a Class 5 over 6 furlongs, he finished a good third 3 beaten by 0.70 lengths. Today, he’s running in the same class and over the same distance.
His highest winning mark is 68 and today he runs off 73. I feel with a little bit of improvement he’s capable of winning this race.
Em Four is an Improving 4 year old gelding. He’s a distance winner who I believe is well handicapped. He’s last won 40 days ago and has had 3 races since. He last ran 12 days ago at Wolverhampton in a Class 5 over 6 furlongs, he finished 7th beaten by 3.95 lengths. I’ve excused that run for various reasons. My basis for his selection today was his performance at Kempton on 21/1/26 where he finished 2nd in a strong race.
His highest winning mark is 73 in this type of race and he runs off 73 today. Jamie Osbourne horse was placed in this race last year.
My bets in this race are as follows;
Em Four EW bet @ 10
State of Madness Win bet @ 4.5
Southwell 16:44. - Win £250,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals Handicap (0-75) (5) 3yo
HENRIETTE RONNER. She’s an Unexposed 3 year old filly who’s a distance winner. She has proven she has the capability to be competitive in this race today.
She last ran 11 days ago at Newcastle winning in a Class 6 over 6 furlongs by 2.50 lengths. That race looks to be fairly strong based on the RaceIQ metrics.
Today, she is up in class but over the same distance. Her highest winning mark is 58 in and she is off 66 today. She needs to improve but she is well capable.
My bets in this race are as follows:
Henriette Ronner EW @ 10
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW
Southwell 14:44 - Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Handicap (0-60) (6) 4yo+
Dream Illusion
She’s an Improving 4 year old filly who is a distance winner. She who last ran 11 days ago at Newcastle in a Class 6 over 8 furlongs, finishing 1st winning by 0.30 lengths in a strong run race.
She’s running in the same class of race and over the same distance. Her highest winning mark is 62 and she runs off 60 today.
Mercurious Power
He’s an in form 8 year old gelding who’s a course and distance winner. I feel he’s well handicapped today. His highest winning mark is 75 and he is 60 today.
He last won 530 days ago and has had 14 races since. He last ran 11 days ago at Newcastle finishing 3rd to Dream Illusion in what was a strong race. The connections obviously feel they now have a chance of reversing that result. in a Class 6 over 8 furlongs, finishing 3/12 and beaten by 0.80 lengths.
My bets in this race are as follows (note I backed all selections last night so prices may well differ)
Dream Illusion EW bet @ 6.5
Mercurious Power EW bet @ 7
Southwell 16:14 - Midnite, Building The Future Of Betting Handicap (0-75) (5) 4yo+
State of Madness is an improving 5 year old gelding. He’s a distance winner and proven to be competitive. He last won 71 days ago and has had 2 races since.
He last ran 21 days ago at Kempton in a Class 5 over 6 furlongs, he finished a good third 3 beaten by 0.70 lengths. Today, he’s running in the same class and over the same distance.
His highest winning mark is 68 and today he runs off 73. I feel with a little bit of improvement he’s capable of winning this race.
Em Four is an Improving 4 year old gelding. He’s a distance winner who I believe is well handicapped. He’s last won 40 days ago and has had 3 races since. He last ran 12 days ago at Wolverhampton in a Class 5 over 6 furlongs, he finished 7th beaten by 3.95 lengths. I’ve excused that run for various reasons. My basis for his selection today was his performance at Kempton on 21/1/26 where he finished 2nd in a strong race.
His highest winning mark is 73 in this type of race and he runs off 73 today. Jamie Osbourne horse was placed in this race last year.
My bets in this race are as follows;
Em Four EW bet @ 10
State of Madness Win bet @ 4.5
Southwell 16:44. - Win £250,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals Handicap (0-75) (5) 3yo
HENRIETTE RONNER. She’s an Unexposed 3 year old filly who’s a distance winner. She has proven she has the capability to be competitive in this race today.
She last ran 11 days ago at Newcastle winning in a Class 6 over 6 furlongs by 2.50 lengths. That race looks to be fairly strong based on the RaceIQ metrics.
Today, she is up in class but over the same distance. Her highest winning mark is 58 in and she is off 66 today. She needs to improve but she is well capable.
My bets in this race are as follows:
Henriette Ronner EW @ 10
simon boardman
Mare
Dave
Gelding
Thank S simon boardman I had upgraded her from her previous run where she hit all sorts of trouble. She made it look easy today at a decent price.nice shout
Dave
Gelding
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. I only have one selections which is from the Lingfield afternoon meeting.
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW
3:43 LINGFIELD Classified Stakes (0-50) (6) 4yo+ over 1M2F
THUNDERING BREEZE
She’s an Improving 5 year old mare, that is yet to win a race. She was disappointing when she last ran 22 days ago at Lingfield in a Class 6 over 10 furlongs, where she finishing 7th out of 10 runners, beaten by 5.15 lengths.
She actually started as the favourite LTO. That would have been due to the manner in which she raced on the 4/01/2026 at Southwell where is finished a good 2nd in a fairly strong race for the class. I’m really not sure what went wrong LTO but she certainly ran under par. I’m happy to forgive that run. The cheek pieces are back on so hopefully she will be back to herself and if she is she could well win this.
THUNDERING BREEZE EW @ 8.0
4:15 LINGFIELD - Handicap (0-80) (4) 4yo+ 1M
FARASI LANE
He’s an exposed 8 year old gelding who recently has showed an improvement in his form. He’s a distance winner and looks to be quite well handicapped based against his highest winning mark of 89 he races off 76 today.
He last won 682 days ago and had 18 races since. This is obviously a negative. That said he last ran 13 days ago at Wolverhampton in a Class 4 over 9 furlongs, finishing s good 2nd beaten by 0.75 lengths by Hitched in what looks quite a strong race. Today, he’s running in the same class but dropping down to the mile. Connections, obviously feel he has a better chance at today’s weights and change of distance. I certainly think there’s some merit in that.
TRIBAL WISDOM
He’s also an exposed gelding but he’s a year younger at 7 years old. He’s a Course & distance winner and another that I feel is quite well handicapped. His highest winning mark is 78 and he’s off 80 today.
He last won 68 days ago and has had 5 races since. He last ran 13 days ago at Wolverhampton in a Class 4 over 9 furlongs, where he finished 5th beaten by 1.90 lengths.
He’s running in the same class but is down in distance to the Mile.
HITCHED
He’s an in form 6 year old gelding who a Course & distance winner. He’s gone up in the weights for his win.
His highest winning mark is 78 and he’s off 80 today. I believe he needs to show some more improvement in order to win this race.
He last ran 13 days ago at Wolverhampton in a Class 4 over 9 furlongs, where he won by 0.75 lengths from Farasi Lane and Tribal Wisdom.
I think there’s some merit the race they all competed in LTO has the strongest form. We now have a different track and different weights so I see opportunities for the following bets.
My bets in this race are as follows
FARASI LANE EW @ 9.0 BOG
TRIBAL WISDOM EW @ 8.4 BOG
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW
3:43 LINGFIELD Classified Stakes (0-50) (6) 4yo+ over 1M2F
THUNDERING BREEZE
She’s an Improving 5 year old mare, that is yet to win a race. She was disappointing when she last ran 22 days ago at Lingfield in a Class 6 over 10 furlongs, where she finishing 7th out of 10 runners, beaten by 5.15 lengths.
She actually started as the favourite LTO. That would have been due to the manner in which she raced on the 4/01/2026 at Southwell where is finished a good 2nd in a fairly strong race for the class. I’m really not sure what went wrong LTO but she certainly ran under par. I’m happy to forgive that run. The cheek pieces are back on so hopefully she will be back to herself and if she is she could well win this.
THUNDERING BREEZE EW @ 8.0
4:15 LINGFIELD - Handicap (0-80) (4) 4yo+ 1M
FARASI LANE
He’s an exposed 8 year old gelding who recently has showed an improvement in his form. He’s a distance winner and looks to be quite well handicapped based against his highest winning mark of 89 he races off 76 today.
He last won 682 days ago and had 18 races since. This is obviously a negative. That said he last ran 13 days ago at Wolverhampton in a Class 4 over 9 furlongs, finishing s good 2nd beaten by 0.75 lengths by Hitched in what looks quite a strong race. Today, he’s running in the same class but dropping down to the mile. Connections, obviously feel he has a better chance at today’s weights and change of distance. I certainly think there’s some merit in that.
TRIBAL WISDOM
He’s also an exposed gelding but he’s a year younger at 7 years old. He’s a Course & distance winner and another that I feel is quite well handicapped. His highest winning mark is 78 and he’s off 80 today.
He last won 68 days ago and has had 5 races since. He last ran 13 days ago at Wolverhampton in a Class 4 over 9 furlongs, where he finished 5th beaten by 1.90 lengths.
He’s running in the same class but is down in distance to the Mile.
HITCHED
He’s an in form 6 year old gelding who a Course & distance winner. He’s gone up in the weights for his win.
His highest winning mark is 78 and he’s off 80 today. I believe he needs to show some more improvement in order to win this race.
He last ran 13 days ago at Wolverhampton in a Class 4 over 9 furlongs, where he won by 0.75 lengths from Farasi Lane and Tribal Wisdom.
I think there’s some merit the race they all competed in LTO has the strongest form. We now have a different track and different weights so I see opportunities for the following bets.
My bets in this race are as follows
FARASI LANE EW @ 9.0 BOG
TRIBAL WISDOM EW @ 8.4 BOG
Last edited:
Dave
Gelding
Here are my bets for the UK's all-weather races today. Initial selections are from the Wolverhampton tonight’s meeting. There may be more to follow later.
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW
5:15 WOLVERHAMPTON - Apprentice Handicap (0-65) (6) 4yo+ 1M 142y
KING OF SPEED is my EW selection in this race.
He’s an in form 7 year old gelding that is a proven course and distance winner. He last won 62 days ago over C&D and has had 1 race since finishing 3rd also over C&D. On that occasion he didn’t get a decent position and was forced to run wide. I don’t think he was given a hard time once the race was lost.
It was the race that he won on the 13/12/2026 that really caught my eye. He showed really good battling quality under a great ride from Billy Loughnane. Any sort of reproduction of that form gives him a very competitive chance.
The current favourite R P MCMURPHY is there on merit for his LTO performance but he’s very short in the market. I had marked up his LTO performance as he did it the hard way coming around all the horses.
I’ve backed KING OF SPEED EW @ 7.5 BOG
Note, the point of writing up these selections is always to illustrate which horses are carrying my personal bets. And those bets are always derived/determined from the processes outlined in the book: UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW
5:15 WOLVERHAMPTON - Apprentice Handicap (0-65) (6) 4yo+ 1M 142y
KING OF SPEED is my EW selection in this race.
He’s an in form 7 year old gelding that is a proven course and distance winner. He last won 62 days ago over C&D and has had 1 race since finishing 3rd also over C&D. On that occasion he didn’t get a decent position and was forced to run wide. I don’t think he was given a hard time once the race was lost.
It was the race that he won on the 13/12/2026 that really caught my eye. He showed really good battling quality under a great ride from Billy Loughnane. Any sort of reproduction of that form gives him a very competitive chance.
The current favourite R P MCMURPHY is there on merit for his LTO performance but he’s very short in the market. I had marked up his LTO performance as he did it the hard way coming around all the horses.
I’ve backed KING OF SPEED EW @ 7.5 BOG