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Today's All Weather Racing

I've been looking at the 4.25 wolves tomorrow and struggling to see why CARGIN BHUI is so short @ evens ?

So i wondered Dave Dave if using the approach you have outlined earlier whether you can offer an opinion ?

fwiw i am tempted with the chance of BRIAN THE SNAIL at first glance but need more time.
 
tacker said:
I've been looking at the 4.25 wolves tomorrow and struggling to see why CARGIN BHUI is so short @ evens ?

So i wondered Dave Dave if using the approach you have outlined earlier whether you can offer an opinion ?

fwiw i am tempted with the chance of BRIAN THE SNAIL at first glance but need more time.
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I haven’t had chance to look today as had the grandkids over. I should get a chance to look later this evening after I’ve tidied the house. It currently looks like a bombs gone off.

Once I’ve looked I’ll let you know my thoughts and if I feel there is a worthwhile bet.
 
I don't know about others but very often my thinking is that trying to evaluate one piece of form against another can become fairly useless without finding some sort of corroborative evidence to find out which form might be the strongest.

So simply taking a limited view of just the two horses mentioned here CARGIN BHUI and BRIAN THE SNAIL i have chosen to try and scrutinise their most recent runs over c/d.

BRIAN THE SNAIL caught my eye the other day when i was looking at ACCRUAL in that yes he was slow out of the traps but looked fairly comfortable in running without any great assistance imo.
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ATR Player | Replay | Monday 22 Dec 2025 | 20:30 | Wolverhampton | At The Races

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CARGIN BHUI was thought by many to have been unlucky lto but while he was pushed a little wide i didn't see too much to be concerned about.
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ATR Player | Replay | Friday 02 Jan 2026 | 16:30 | Wolverhampton | At The Races

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Sectional

BTS..........16.18 / 11.31 / 11.33 / 11.30 / 11.38 / 11.78 / total 1.13.38s cl4 race
CB...........15.94 / 11.44 / 11.80 / 11.63 / 11.33 / 11.98 / total 1.14.09s....cl6 race

Different days so likely that the track was also different but overall i see enough in those numbers to believe old BRIAN might outrun his odds of 12/1 with D NOLAN taking over.

Another factor that i can't get out of my mind this last couple of years or so is when we look at the average OR of their last races to the average OR of this race and BRIAN THE SNAIL is competing in a 17lbs lower average here that last time, while CARGIN BHUI is 4lbs higher so quite significant if you take such things seriously enough.

I won't go on because it can become too much to read or take in but win or lose i feel there's enough there to at least think BRIAN can compete.
ps...others in here with chances but wanted to concentrate on the contrast.
 
T tacker I have had a look at the race although I believe it will be abandoned due to the snow.

Should the race go ahead it us one that I would have dodge especially as it’s only 7 runners making E/W tricky. The races where Brian The Snail has run well there has been plenty of early pace to aim at. The favourite for me is weak and again needs plenty of early pace.

I don’t think any of the horses that like to go forwards are that fast. Only Gustav Graves is drawn low in (2). Waistcoat in 5, Some Nightmare (6) and Brave Empire (7) are the others.

If I had to have a bet it would be EW on Brave Empire @9/1 or more. I generally wouldn’t be looking at wide draws but there are only 7 runners. All horse drawn 5,6 & 7 will try to break fast and cut across. I think Brave Empire will get to the front based on 0-20 gate speed. Top weight and has been in higher class races and won a class 2 at Lingfield last year over 6F. 6F is his best distance IMO.

I hope this helps.
 
Hello, i hope you dont mind me posting. the method i use is based on calculated bets by steven skiena so i would bet at -30 mins or less.
At present prices i would back Gustav Graves but the market will change.
 
I would always check the individual profiles of fancied runners .
Sometimes either be design or lack of planning a trainer will run a horse when it’s profile shows it will struggle.
Recent examples have been a horse that had run 20 times right handed without success trying right handed again .
It lost .
Similarly a favourite coming back from a long break when all its win were when it had had a recent run .
It lost .
Doesn’t always work but a factor.
 
Brave Empire has a good profile but when you look deeper it was all with Roger Varian .
0-10 with the new trainer .
Sometimes this is by design as a clever trainer is plotting a coup .
Usually it’s not.
 
paul said:
I would always check the individual profiles of fancied runners .
Sometimes either be design or lack of planning a trainer will run a horse when it’s profile shows it will struggle.
Recent examples have been a horse that had run 20 times right handed without success trying right handed again .
It lost .
Similarly a favourite coming back from a long break when all its win were when it had had a recent run .
It lost .
Doesn’t always work but a factor.
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I noticed that FURTADO ran BRAVE EMPIRE over 10f recently but back down to 5f two races back.
 
Just recently, I’ve started to take an alternative approach to try and identify double figure horse that I believe have an E/W chance.

By putting the selections on here I’m testing my thinking and approach and certainly open to comments. I don’t expect to be winning all the time but would like to think I will make a profit.


It’s very different to my standard approach as I’m trying to think in a differently.

14:12 CHELMSFORD Class5 6F

Correspondence. E/W 28/1

I’m total discounting the LTO at Chelmsford over 6F (£4,711) when carrying 9-6. The only real benefit is a drop of 3lbs.

It’s his first run for Tony Carroll since moving from Harry Eustace. I like the fact that inform jockey Gina Mangan is riding.

I thought the horse ran quit well in his first handicap race at Wolverhampton over 7F where he started favourite. The first 3 F were run fast and the early leaders including Correspondence suffer for it late on.

He’s drawn in 4 and has decent early speed so I’m hoping he breaks fast and gets into a good position. I feel if he’s in a good position early on then he will have the stamina to keep up a sustained effort.

My thinking is, if this horse is really a 28/1 shot then why would the trainer be running it in a higher grade race. Yes, it’s still a class 5 race but the race value is £15k which is step up in class. Surely, you would be looking for a class 6 race if you felt he wasn’t up to it.


Maybe he’s hoping it runs poorly and gets further weight reductions ready to pounce at a later date.

The trainer as we all know is super hard to predict. He sends out lots of runners and often hits some big priced winners and placed horses.
 
I don't know about you Dave Dave but when you look through a horses form there's a sense that connections got it wrong from the start, if i was the trainer i wouldn't want to be in the same race as Gosden & Haggas and that's what we've got here, both horses now rated over 100 meant that the handicappers were certain to be careful with the mark CORRESPONDENCE might get.
His second run didn't help when 3rd behind horses going on to rate fairly high but in my opinion this flattered him and by his third run he'd already had a mark of 72. he the makes his hdc debut off that 72 mark which was clearly too high but only gets a pound back.
His last run was pointless, maybe the blinkers but tailed off and difficult to handle but they gave him another 3lbs back, is that enough ?
Well like you i'm very unsure but agree 28/1 might be too big if Carroll means business, good luck.
 
I always enjoy reading when people are brave enough to post their thoughts and selections.
I nearly always comment as I am here that whilst class is definitely a factor in my opinion I’m not sure weight is at all .
A half ton horse defecates more weight than any handicapper adds annd it does that 8 times a day and a slow horse won’t run fast by having a few lbs removed.
I personally think weight was an excuse from a time before computers gave us all the information we need to read a profile and understand.
 
paul said:
I always enjoy reading when people are brave enough to post their thoughts and selections.
I nearly always comment as I am here that whilst class is definitely a factor in my opinion I’m not sure weight is at all .
A half ton horse defecates more weight than any handicapper adds annd it does that 8 times a day and a slow horse won’t run fast by having a few lbs removed.
I personally think weight was an excuse from a time before computers gave us all the information we need to read a profile and understand.
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I believe we've had this conversation on UKBF before and suspect others have similar thoughts to yourself paul paul, obviously i couldn't disagree more.
 
The beauty of this forum is the ability to post thoughts and opinions which can then lead to an open debate and difference of opinions.

As I mentioned initially in the post I’m looking at a different idea / approach purely to try and unearth big priced horses for EW selection. The logic behind the selections is to identify horses that have been run with the aim of reducing the handicap mark ready for a payday.

I’m never afraid of posting for fear of ridicule and I certainly don’t expect all the selections I post to get placed or win but I do think they can out run their odds. Most importantly I will have had a wager on them.

Like I say, this is a recent approach and results are the best gauge of success
 
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The "Tony Carroll Project"​

Correspondence is a fascinating, if risky, proposition in today's field. While his recent form figures (40-0) are uninspiring and the Betfair market is cold, the move to Tony Carroll—a trainer renowned for revitalizing cheap purchases and handicap sprinters—is a significant angle.

  • Verdict: A classic "watcher" for market moves late on. He is genetically bred to be far better than a Class 5 handicapper (rated 68). If Carroll has fixed the temperament issues that caused him to pull his chances away previously, he is dangerously well-handicapped on his best form (Timeform 77). The switch from Blinkers (which caused a blowout last time) to Cheekpieces is a key positive equipment change.

1. Pedigree & Genetic Analysis​

This horse is bred in the purple, making his current basement-level valuation ($15k at recent sales) and rating somewhat shocking.

Bloodline Breakdown​

  • Sire: WAR FRONT (USA)
    • One of the world's elite sires. Known for imparting precocity, speed, and turf/synthetic ability. His progeny typically excel at 6f to 8f. War Fronts often have a high cruising speed but can be headstrong.
  • Dam: WALK IN MARRAKESH (IRE) (by Siyouni)
    • A high-class 2yo who won at 7f and placed in a G1 Mile.
    • Family: She is a half-sister to smart sprinters Zipping and Nipping.
  • Nicking: The War Front x Siyouni cross blends the speed of the Danzig line with the class of the Nureyev line. This is a pedigree built for a high-cruising speed over 6f–7f.

Estimated Speed Gene: C:C (Sprint/Mile)​

  • Genotype Prediction: C:C (Short/Speed oriented).
  • Best Distance: 6f – 7f.
  • Analysis: War Front is a dominant source of speed (C-allele), and the dam’s family is speed-oriented. Correspondence has likely inherited a "fast" metabolic type. His failure to stay 7f/1m in previous runs was likely due to energy expenditure (pulling hard) rather than a lack of genetic stamina, but 6f is his natural genetic home.

2. Timeform & Performance Data​

Current Official Rating (OR): 68 Timeform Master Rating: 77 Adjusted Rating: 88 (Competitive in this field)

Key Form Cycle Analysis​

  1. The Potential (Jun/Sep 2025):
    • He ran to a Timeform 77 when 3rd at Brighton and 2nd at Newcastle.
    • Note: At Newcastle (Sep 11), he split horses now rated significantly higher. He showed ability but "raced freely."
  2. The Blowout (23 Oct 25 - Chelmsford 6f):
    • Result: 10/10, beaten 29L.
    • Excuse: First-time Blinkers. Timeform noted: "Hardly looked an ideal candidate for blinkers... free... lost place."
    • Interpretation: The headgear lit him up; he panicked and ran his race in the first two furlongs. That run is a "throw-out."

The Trainer Switch: Harry Eustace → Tony Carroll​

  • Tony Carroll is a specialist with this type of profile: a well-bred castoff with ability but temperament quirks.
  • Carroll excels at Chelmsford and on the AW circuit generally.
  • Equipment Change: Today he wears Cheekpieces (p) instead of Blinkers. This is a crucial positive. Cheekpieces offer some focus without the claustrophobia of blinkers that caused his last failure.

3. Race Dynamics: Chelmsford 2.12 (6f)​

Pace Map Analysis​

  • Correspondence (Draw 4): Projected Pace 0.572.
  • The Setup: The pace is forecast to be Even.
    • Leaders: Ziggy's Condor (10) and Lady Wingalong (7) are likely to go forward.
    • Correspondence's Position: From Draw 4, he can sit just behind the leaders in the "pocket."
  • Tactical Advantage: Chelmsford 6f favors horses who can travel kindly on the rail and kick. If the leaders go too hard (Ziggy's Condor can be aggressive), Correspondence is perfectly drawn to pick up the pieces—if he settles.

4. Statistical & Market Insight​

Why the lack of Betfair Support?​

  • Recency Bias: Bettors see the "0" (29L defeat) last time and shy away.
  • Trainer Pattern: While Carroll is good, his recruits often need a run or two to settle into his system and drop to a winning mark. The market may be waiting for "signs of life" before backing him.
  • Drifter: If he drifts out to 20/1+, it suggests the yard isn't expecting a win today ("a watching brief"). However, if money comes late (5 mins before off), respect it instantly.

The "Value" Angle​

  • He is running off OR 68.
  • His maiden form (TF 77) suggests he is a 75+ horse when right.
  • He is effectively 7-10lbs well-in if he reproduces his Newcastle run from September.

Final Report Conclusion​

Correspondence is a classic "regressive" profile that has landed in the hands of a "revivalist" trainer. The pedigree screams quality (War Front), but the mental application has been lacking (pulling hard).

Gina Mangan takes the ride on Correspondence today.

  • Significance: This is a positive "fresh start." George Wood rode the horse in his past starts (including the disastrous blinkers run and the promising Brighton run). A new pair of hands—especially Gina Mangan, who is strong but sympathetic—might be exactly what a headstrong horse needs to reset mentally.

Recommendation: If you can forgive the 29-length defeat, he is the class act of the field running at a basement price. He is a dangerous each-way player, but the lack of market support suggests the win might be for another day. Watch the market closely: if he touches 8/1 or shorter, the stable is confident.
 
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