Hi mick , as my methods have changed over the years, I am not sure how relevant very long term records are. But an audit is probably due for my bets for last couple of years, and I will get to it in due course. I find I have tended to do better in maidens etc, or with unexposed horses in general as part of my process is to look for horses that haven’t done something before that may see them improve.F Frontrunner one of the aspects i find interesting about your MO is the wide variety of race type you work, and you have overtly explained your thinking behind this. I think i recall you saying your a long term record keeper of you past bets and just wondered if you have ever conducted an audit of profitability via race type and or any other occurrence...............my question was in part triggered by your above comment that this year you are swerving any odds on selections.
The reason for swerving odds on shots this year is that there is nothing to gain if you are backing to level stakes or similar, as even if they win it barely covers the stake for your next bet. And if I increase my stakes significantly for the odds on shots, then that is dangerous because they can and do get beaten, and obviously with bigger stakes a loser is going to hurt more and I know it could cause me to lose my discipline. Interestingly, before today I have picked 3 odds on shots so far this year, swerved all of them and all have won, but I am not getting tempted to change this rule as I know no matter how good a horse’s chances look they can still lose.