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Thoughts and selections

markfinn

Sire
5th May

2:45 Chester - Win bet on Harmony Lil @ 11/2

I have taken a chance on this today despite the big drift. Main reason for backing is the run in her last race at Ripon, where she finished 2nd/13 on her first run of season. It was only a class 5, but that race usually produces a few winners. In 8 previous runnings of that race, of the horses that finished 2nd, 2 won on their next start and 2 finished 2nd. Form of this year’s race is also working out well with 2 winners (including a 20/1) and 2 places from the 7 that have run so far.

Harmony Lil is 2 from 2 here at Chester, both those wins were over 6 furlongs, in a novice and in class 2 nursery (from 5 lbs lower than today). Drop to 5f for first time is a possible negative, but there are only 3 distance winners in the race, which is quite unusual for a class 2 5f handicap to have so few distance winners in it. And also the likelihood of strong pace means ability to stay 6 furlongs may not be a negative.

Dascombe, who trains locally, has a good record at this meeting, and has won this race twice before (in 2015 & 16) from 13 runners. He runs two in this today, Kingscote is not on either of them but that will be because he can’t do the weight. Jane Elliott rode two winners (prices 12/1 & 5/2) from 7 rides for Dascombe at this meeting in 2019.
Just seen this - Good write up - last night I was looking at this race just for interest as I was not about yesterday (If I had been around it would have been one to look at) - you have all the elements spot on the only thing I did not like was the Jockey / owner connection 0/0 so would have not been a bet for me at any price really. I do wonder if your quote "Kingscote is not on either of them but that will be because he can’t do the weight" is the big key here - I was listening to a trainer a while a go and when questioned whether or not his 4 runners were off that day he replied " you will know when mine are off as they will have their regular work riders up or the owners preferred jockey - question I have is - If they are bullish about the prospect would the extra weight prevent them having a go ? .

Watched J Spencer at the week end weaving one in and out only to be blocked out twice - pulled it out wide and came from last to win of an energy sapping run by head - with the handicaps being framed a close as they are the BHA is not making it easy these day -

Re connections - the we never really know about these details but its something I am certainly looking for all the time. I have been tracking JP McManus runners as he some very clear connections and large number of horses, but yet to reveal anything worthwhile in fact not one has one.
 
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Just seen this - Good write up - last night I was looking at this race just for interest as I was not about yesterday (If I had been around it would have been one to look at) - you have all the elements spot on the only thing I did not like was the Jockey / owner connection 0/0 so would have not been a bet for me at any price really. I do wonder if "Kingscote is not on either of them but that will be because he can’t do the weight"
Thanks markfinn markfinn, Dascombe/Kingscote did have a good winner on the card later on. Dascombe has 3 today, including two of them in the 2yo maiden, but whatever happens he has maintained his record of having at least one winner at this meeting.
 
F Frontrunner i have just noticed that you have been Gelded. Admin say it improves the focus, not so in my experience but best of regardless. :eek:
Ok, I am going to create a new ID tomorrow ;)

Talking of focus, yesterday’s selection Focus Point was very poor, you don’t see many horses weaken as quickly as he did, to finish tailed off.

7th May

1:55 Ascot - Win bet on Wild Beauty @ 5/2

This is usually a very good maiden and often has a runner that goes on to compete well at the royal meeting. 2013 winner Rizeena went on to win the Queen Mary, 4 others from this race have gone on to place in QM, and one in Albany. Rizeena later went on to win at Group 1 level, as well as Rizeena this race has produced two other Group 2 winners and one Group 3 winner. 7 of the 8 runners in today’s race are from Newmarket and one from Lambourn, so with top stables represented there is a good chance that this race will be up to its usual high standard.

Al Hadeeyah, the only experienced runner in field, sets a good standard having finished 3rd at Newmarket last month. That Newmarket race has a good record of providing the winner of this race, only 5 horses have run in both races, and 3 of them won this (in years 2011-13), but the two in recent years have finished unplaced, including one trained by James Tate - Ziarah, who could finish only 6th/11 in this after finishing 3rd at Newmarket. I think Al Hadeeyah will run well, but have taken a chance on one of the newcomers, Wild Beauty.

Godolphin won last running of this race (2019), with a newcomer Final Song (trainer by Saeed bin Suroor) who went on to finish 3rd in QM. Before that they had Romantic View finish 2nd @ 16/1 (in 2016), their only other runner in this race was unplaced but that was also a big price.

Wild Beauty’s dam was a Listed winner over a mile (3yo) and finished 4th at Group 1 level. I do have some reservations because the pedigree suggests she will want further than 5 furlongs. But trainer has an outstanding record on 2yo debuts over the minimum trip since 2017 as shown below, that I feel he must think this filly has enough speed to be running her over 5.

85F6CE3E-2157-4F3C-8640-AC9A0C102269.jpeg

As always in these type of races, live betting before the off is likely to be a good guide. 8 of the 10 runnings of this have been by horses in first three in betting and backing top 3 in betting has shown a level stakes profit.
 
Just because you've piqued my interest in a race I'd never look at, I've opposed you with Clive Cox's Get Ahead. I'm so confident, I've had all of 10p on at 7/1😄.

Also done the Wild Beauty/Get Ahead forecast.
Great shout P PHS, well done.

I am certainly picking them at the moment, Wild Beauty first one beaten and was trading at 1000/1 at halfway, maybe that’s the price she should have been before the start.
 
:eek:

Thanks F Frontrunner. Maybe I should take these races a bit more seriously; just spent about 10mins looking at the likely types and came up with that. Probably just beginners luck. It was 7/2 this morning, SP of 6/1!
Yes, nice drift, and it was a nice performance from the winner. It might not seem like it going by my record this season, but it is possible to make these races pay by just looking at pedigrees and how trainers do in these races.
 
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8th May

6:20 Warwick - no bet

Decided to leave this only because of the price, as the way mine are running at the moment I don’t feel confident about backing at short prices. Pounding Poet does have plenty of positives. He won over this distance at Southwell last time on his handicap debut. Form of that race is working well with the 3rd horse winning from a 3 lbs higher mark and the 4th won very easily next time.

His earlier form in Novice Hurdle at Wetherby (finished 4th) has also worked well, winner won again next time before finishing 3rd at Grade 2 level and 2nd has also won since and is rated 120+ now.

Tom Lacey stable is in reasonably good form with 4 winners in past month. There are a few others in race with good recent form too, but Pounding Poet is the least exposed and possibly most open to improvement.

Price is a bit short though so I have decided to leave it, but have put it in a multiple bet just for a bit of fun.
 
Just for interest, my fun multiple for today is as follows.

Jersey Wonder @ 11/2 (1:25 Haydock)
Kalaharry @ 16/5 (2:10 Hexham)
Chocoya @ 7/2 (2:55 Nottingham)
Fall Of Rome @ 2/1 (3:05 Ascot)
Saratoga Gold @ 9/2 (4:05 Nottingham)
Pounding Poet @ 85/40 (6:20 Warwick)

Backed as win trebles only, and e/w accumulator.
 

Coseleymon

Yearling
8th May

6:20 Warwick - no bet

Decided to leave this only because of the price, as the way mine are running at the moment I don’t feel confident about backing at short prices. Pounding Poet does have plenty of positives. He won over this distance at Southwell last time on his handicap debut. Form of that race is working well with the 3rd horse winning from a 3 lbs higher mark and the 4th won very easily next time.

His earlier form in Novice Hurdle at Wetherby (finished 4th) has also worked well, winner won again next time before finishing 3rd at Grade 2 level and 2nd has also won since and is rated 120+ now.

Tom Lacey stable is in reasonably good form with 4 winners in past month. There are a few others in race with good recent form too, but Pounding Poet is the least exposed and possibly most open to improvement.

Price is a bit short though so I have decided to leave it, but have put it in a multiple bet just for a bit of fun.
8th May

6:20 Warwick - no bet

Decided to leave this only because of the price, as the way mine are running at the moment I don’t feel confident about backing at short prices. Pounding Poet does have plenty of positives. He won over this distance at Southwell last time on his handicap debut. Form of that race is working well with the 3rd horse winning from a 3 lbs higher mark and the 4th won very easily next time.

His earlier form in Novice Hurdle at Wetherby (finished 4th) has also worked well, winner won again next time before finishing 3rd at Grade 2 level and 2nd has also won since and is rated 120+ now.

Tom Lacey stable is in reasonably good form with 4 winners in past month. There are a few others in race with good recent form too, but Pounding Poet is the least exposed and possibly most open to improvement.

Price is a bit short though so I have decided to leave it, but have put it in a multiple bet just for a bit of fun.
Good selection i had a little bit on as a saver as i wanted the 2nd for a big price ew double
 
Thanks T tacker , I kind of had a feeling it would win when I decided to not bet lol. Only one other winner on multiple bet, Kalaharry @ 11/2 and that one only won because of a big slice of luck, so no joy.
 

tacker

Mare
Thanks T tacker , I kind of had a feeling it would win when I decided to not bet lol. Only one other winner on multiple bet, Kalaharry @ 11/2 and that one only won because of a big slice of luck, so no joy.
I think we all have these kind of dilemma's F Frontrunner , backed something last night at 6/1 with the intention of going in again when the weather situation was clear, trouble then was the odds had shrunk and i just couldn't bring myself to bet further.
 
9th May

4:30 Killarney - no bet

Another short price, and as I am bit less confident about this than yesterday’s one I feel it’s better to just watch. My possible bet was Tune The Chello. Henry de Bromhead has the top two in betting with Rachael Blackmore on the other one, but TTC has the highest hurdles rating of these and there is good chance that she will do better on her chase debut.

She was disappointing here in October, but won her maiden here earlier in the season so I don’t think course was to blame for the loss. It was on good going, although she has won on it I think she prefers a bit of cut. Given a 6 month break after that run and returned with a good 2nd at Ballinrobe last time. She has the fitness advantage over most of her main rivals today.

Henry de Bromhead stable looks in poor form at first glance, but that is because they had a poor Punchestown festival - he has never done that well there anyway, but has started getting the winners again since then so I don’t think it is a problem. On a side note, it might be worth keeping an eye on his horses that ran at Punchestown festival as he does very well with them next time, especially with those that were placed. There is one, Paloma Blue running here tomorrow although he wasn’t placed last time.

Of others in the race, Whadiyatink Now could also be interesting. Gavin Cromwell’s horses have been running well last week or so, both on flat and jumps, and he has a good record here. This mare was sent off as short as 5/1 for a Grade 2 Handicap Hurdle when disappointing last time, so she wouldn’t be without chance if taking well to fences.

So no bet, but I am looking at few others and may put Tune The Chello in a little multiple bet.
 
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