Just seen this - Good write up - last night I was looking at this race just for interest as I was not about yesterday (If I had been around it would have been one to look at) - you have all the elements spot on the only thing I did not like was the Jockey / owner connection 0/0 so would have not been a bet for me at any price really. I do wonder if your quote "Kingscote is not on either of them but that will be because he can’t do the weight" is the big key here - I was listening to a trainer a while a go and when questioned whether or not his 4 runners were off that day he replied " you will know when mine are off as they will have their regular work riders up or the owners preferred jockey - question I have is - If they are bullish about the prospect would the extra weight prevent them having a go ? .5th May
2:45 Chester - Win bet on Harmony Lil @ 11/2
I have taken a chance on this today despite the big drift. Main reason for backing is the run in her last race at Ripon, where she finished 2nd/13 on her first run of season. It was only a class 5, but that race usually produces a few winners. In 8 previous runnings of that race, of the horses that finished 2nd, 2 won on their next start and 2 finished 2nd. Form of this year’s race is also working out well with 2 winners (including a 20/1) and 2 places from the 7 that have run so far.
Harmony Lil is 2 from 2 here at Chester, both those wins were over 6 furlongs, in a novice and in class 2 nursery (from 5 lbs lower than today). Drop to 5f for first time is a possible negative, but there are only 3 distance winners in the race, which is quite unusual for a class 2 5f handicap to have so few distance winners in it. And also the likelihood of strong pace means ability to stay 6 furlongs may not be a negative.
Dascombe, who trains locally, has a good record at this meeting, and has won this race twice before (in 2015 & 16) from 13 runners. He runs two in this today, Kingscote is not on either of them but that will be because he can’t do the weight. Jane Elliott rode two winners (prices 12/1 & 5/2) from 7 rides for Dascombe at this meeting in 2019.
Watched J Spencer at the week end weaving one in and out only to be blocked out twice - pulled it out wide and came from last to win of an energy sapping run by head - with the handicaps being framed a close as they are the BHA is not making it easy these day -
Re connections - the we never really know about these details but its something I am certainly looking for all the time. I have been tracking JP McManus runners as he some very clear connections and large number of horses, but yet to reveal anything worthwhile in fact not one has one.