• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Thoughts and selections

Starting this thread to post my thoughts and selections. Any views and opinions are welcome.

8:10 Kempton - class 6 sprint handicap with top rating of 51 probably not the best race to start the thread with but here it is. Course form and draw are the main things I am considering for this race. There is a strong draw bias here, of 55 handicaps run over CD on same going (standard to slow) and same field size (11 runners), 34 (62%) have been won by those drawn in stalls 1-4, and only 3 wins (less than 2% strike rate) for those drawn in outside 3 stalls.

Most of these have run here before, but have only 2 wins between them from 45 runs here, the two course winners are Mont Kiara, potentially well handicapped but drawn in stall 10 today (was drawn 1 when he won here). Other course winner Krazy Paving badly out of form (has beaten a total of 2 horses in his last 3 races) but is drawn well.

Top two in betting have the two inside stalls. Urban Highway, drawn 1, has run 4 times over CD, with best placing of 4th of 12 but that was the only time he has been in lower half of the draw (stall 5 of 12). He is 21 lbs lower than that effort and is weighted to go close from this draw, his career record of 1 from 22 makes it hard to be too confident though. Favourite, Charles Le Brun, is running at Kempton for first time after an improved effort on fibresand debut last time, his sire Equiano does particularly well on fibresand though. Not so good on polytrack, and especially here at Kempton his strike rate is the 2nd lowest of all stallions represented in this race. CLB’s half brother Spin Top was 0 from 5 (1 placing) at Kempton, so on pedigree I have reservations about him here. Interesting jockey booking though of Richard Kingscote, who does very well here especially in sprint races.

Hard to be confident in a race like this, but I have already backed Urban Highway despite his poor strike rate as there are a few positives in his favour today. I wouldn’t completely rule out Krazy Paving at a big price but he does need to return to form.
 
Last edited:
Good luck for this, Frontrunner, and thank you for a good write-up!
The race is too difficult for me, but, initially, I thought your selection, Urban Highway, would just about be the one.

One negative thing I noticed about UB is that he's never won going right-handed. 🤨
Dunno if that will stop him. We'll see.
 

markfinn

Sire
Starting this thread to post my thoughts and selections. Any views and opinions are welcome.

8:10 Kempton - class 6 sprint handicap with top rating of 51 probably not the best race to start the thread with but here it is. Course form and draw are the main things I am considering for this race. There is a strong draw bias here, of 55 handicaps run over CD on same going (standard to slow) and same field size (11 runners), 34 (62%) have been won by those drawn in stalls 1-4, and only 3 wins (less than 2% strike rate) for those drawn in outside 3 stalls.

Most of these have run here before, but have only 2 wins between them from 45 runs here, the two course winners are Mont Kiara, potentially well handicapped but drawn in stall 10 today (was drawn 1 when he won here). Other course winner Krazy Paving badly out of form (has beaten a total of 2 horses in his last 3 races) but is drawn well.

Top two in betting have the two inside stalls. Urban Highway, drawn 1, has run 4 times over CD, with best placing of 4th of 12 but that was the only time he has been in lower half of the draw (stall 5 of 12). He is 21 lbs lower than that effort and is weighted to go close from this draw, his career record of 1 from 22 makes it hard to be too confident though. Favourite, Charles Le Brun, is running at Kempton for first time after an improved effort on fibresand debut last time, his sire Equiano does particularly well on fibresand though. Not so good on polytrack, and especially here at Kempton his strike rate is the 2nd lowest of all stallions represented in this race. CLB’s half brother Spin Top was 0 from 5 (1 placing) at Kempton, so on pedigree I have reservations about him here. Interesting jockey booking though of Richard Kingscote, who does very well here especially in sprint races.

Hard to be confident in a race like this, but I have already backed Urban Highway despite his poor strike rate as there are a few positives in his favour today. I wouldn’t completely rule out Krazy Paving at a big price but he does need to return to form.
Bottom fishing here - I like the look of both stables - Tony Carolls Urban need tp prove that the age jump has not left him behind which it looks to the case - Crazy Olly Murphy trainer equally as good - but 8yr will find it hard amongst this lot - Leo minor dropped like a stone and looks unbackable but there again stable looks OK and Kirby takes the eye and he might be the to take a forward step and run the others out of it - the progressive Charles Le Bron is the obvious quick pick - not one for me but good luck
 

Outlander

Gelding
Starting this thread to post my thoughts and selections. Any views and opinions are welcome.

8:10 Kempton - class 6 sprint handicap with top rating of 51 probably not the best race to start the thread with but here it is. Course form and draw are the main things I am considering for this race. There is a strong draw bias here, of 55 handicaps run over CD on same going (standard to slow) and same field size (11 runners), 34 (62%) have been won by those drawn in stalls 1-4, and only 3 wins (less than 2% strike rate) for those drawn in outside 3 stalls.

Most of these have run here before, but have only 2 wins between them from 45 runs here, the two course winners are Mont Kiara, potentially well handicapped but drawn in stall 10 today (was drawn 1 when he won here). Other course winner Krazy Paving badly out of form (has beaten a total of 2 horses in his last 3 races) but is drawn well.

Top two in betting have the two inside stalls. Urban Highway, drawn 1, has run 4 times over CD, with best placing of 4th of 12 but that was the only time he has been in lower half of the draw (stall 5 of 12). He is 21 lbs lower than that effort and is weighted to go close from this draw, his career record of 1 from 22 makes it hard to be too confident though. Favourite, Charles Le Brun, is running at Kempton for first time after an improved effort on fibresand debut last time, his sire Equiano does particularly well on fibresand though. Not so good on polytrack, and especially here at Kempton his strike rate is the 2nd lowest of all stallions represented in this race. CLB’s half brother Spin Top was 0 from 5 (1 placing) at Kempton, so on pedigree I have reservations about him here. Interesting jockey booking though of Richard Kingscote, who does very well here especially in sprint races.

Hard to be confident in a race like this, but I have already backed Urban Highway despite his poor strike rate as there are a few positives in his favour today. I wouldn’t completely rule out Krazy Paving at a big price but he does need to return to form.
I have backed Urban Highway , good luck , you will need it because I have nailed it to the floor
 

tacker

Mare
Not my kind of race to be honest but if i had to choose one i would go along with URBAN HIGHWAY but in getting i'm using plenty of "ifs" , but the fact is he does have the beating of a few of these at the weights.

One horse that possibly could surprise is JUNGLEBOOGLEOO, has been running over 8f until changing stables and started off in a 5f chelms and ran on from the back without threatening, further back to august his 4th behind LAURENTIA in a mile handicap showed a small sign of potential but best just wish you good luck.
 
Best of luck F Frontrunner

I don't like Charles Le Brun who i think is an awful price.

I was attracted to the chances of Krazy Paving. The post states he only wins between Jan - march, but he's never been off 48 in december . The fact is a 5lb/7lb claimer is used , so I do expect another day is on the agenda, but I'm having a small bet.

I'm also going with another punt on Leo Minor.

I can't think of many Aiden O'Brien horses to run off 50 , but the trainer finally got a winner at the weekend and his last run over 7f can be ignored.
 
I couldn’t possibly have got off to a worse start, could I? Urban Highway must have given them 20 lengths start by staying in the stalls. Winner came from a low draw but was an unconsidered 40/1 shot.

Thank you all for a wonderful response, notwithstanding my poor selection to start the thread. It’s great to see different opinions and how people look at different things in a race.
 

Outlander

Gelding
I couldn’t possibly have got off to a worse start, could I? Urban Highway must have given them 20 lengths start by staying in the stalls. Winner came from a low draw but was an unconsidered 40/1 shot.

Thank you all for a wonderful response, notwithstanding my poor selection to start the thread. It’s great to see different opinions and how people look at different things in a race.
Told you I’d nailed it to the floor, quite literally
 
Bad luck, Frontrunner!
Missed the race, but found the replay on racingtv; you couldn't have had a worse run, with the possible exception of Charles le Brun who would have p'd it , IF the jockey had been able to get through!

Typical Christmas time result, imo. 40/1 winner beats the fav by a nose.
Nice money for somebody, no doubt, but I don't really think any system would have got that one right.

Never mind; you may never be that unlucky again. Freak result, imo.
Keep an eye o Urban: he may make amends somewhere in January.
 

retriever

Gelding
have been won by those drawn in stalls 1-4
Amnaa - Stall 4 ( a stretch of faith needed perhaps....lol ).

Reflecting on the race, I am more baffled, more so than why the winner won, with how on earth Urban Highway went off 2nd favourite at 3/1.
As mentioned, it has only won one race (1-22) at Brighton, where it probably couldn't stop himself running down the hill.
It's OR has gone practically from 65 to 47 in a straight line bar a little Brighton bump. How much lower can it go?
The horse just doesn't seem to like racing and certainly not on the AW.
Today's comment was 'virtually refused to race and lost all chance' - something is amiss - and perhaps a change of yard is needed.

Urban Highway's form is no better than Amnaa's when you look at it.
But then Amnaa won :confused:, so now I'm scratching my head??!!
But that's what you get when you play at this low level I suppose.
 
Thanks everyone for comments, and Retriever for very honest assessment. I always look back at my losers after the race to see where I went wrong, and I came to pretty much same conclusion as you that it was a bad selection, backing a horse that has 1 win from 20 odd at that price is probably not a good idea even in a poor race like that. I will try to learn from that.

I will defend my choice of race though, I know such low level races are not to everyone’s liking, but I chose to bet in it as I felt I could rule out more than half the field especially with the strong draw bias (I hadn’t ruled out the winner, but was unlikely at that price). Many people will say price shouldn’t matter, and I would agree with it to a great extent, but as I don’t have a lot of bets these days I find it hard to bring myself to back really big priced runners, but that’s a whole different discussion. I admit that I probably let the price affect my decision a bit as i felt perhaps UH was fancied by stable today (I was wrong there) as he had been much bigger prices in his previous races.
 

mick

Sire
I will defend my choice of race though, I know such low level races are not to everyone’s liking
Hi F Frontrunner Not sure why you feel the need to defend betting in a low grade because 8/1 there pays the same as in a Class 1 and is arguably an easier find. Anyway an excellent write up for the race which has rightly earned positive response from members and best of for a continuation of same.
 
Last edited:
Yes, Mick is right: we should never be afraid to have our own opinion at punting. I do my own thing regardless, and it's my choice to bet or not to bet as I please.

Just in the spirit of things and for a bit of fun with minimal stakes, I've had a small bet on a race I'd normally not bother with:

1.20 Catterick

2points win Roses Poses
1point win Head Lad

No knowledge, no study, just glanced at the figures on Inform Racing. ☺️
The prices I took on the Machine were about 4/1 and 18/1.

No great expectations; just something to interest me. It seems I've gone against a combination I like, Mrs Smith and Ryan Mania.
We'll see what happens.
 
Top