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Frontrunner Deserves to be in a very good mood.
Thoughts and selections
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Frontrunner
Stallion
Thank you
markfinn ,
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PHS ,
mick ,
K
Kraldrew,
T
tacker ,
davejb , and everyone.
Moodofthemoment won @ 17/2 for profit of 8.5 pts.
Bet #22 - 5:20 Punchestown - Clongorey, win bet
Taking on another odds on shot, but this time it looks even harder because it's not just the Willie Mullins' favourite to worry about but the 2nd fav Lau And Shaz also has a good chance. The race looks between these 3.
My selection Clongorey, a 4yo, has had two runs, both in maiden hurdles and now runs in a bumper for first time. She finished 4th both times, last run looks poor at first glance as she was beaten 40 lengths but the clear winner may turn out to be decent. Clongorey's time was only 1.9 secs slower than the winner of 0-95 handicap hurdle on same card, so I don't think the run is as bad as it looks. Having said that she still needs to improve, but I am hopeful.
Form of debut run worked out well, with the 2nd & 7th horses winning maiden hurdles next time, and there have been 3 other winners come out of the race.
I am not sure about the conditional jockey as he doesn't have a great record, would have preferred Jack Kennedy to stay on it, so that's a bit of negative.
markfinn ,
P
PHS ,
mick ,
K
Kraldrew,
T
tacker ,
davejb , and everyone.Moodofthemoment won @ 17/2 for profit of 8.5 pts.
Bet #22 - 5:20 Punchestown - Clongorey, win bet
Taking on another odds on shot, but this time it looks even harder because it's not just the Willie Mullins' favourite to worry about but the 2nd fav Lau And Shaz also has a good chance. The race looks between these 3.
My selection Clongorey, a 4yo, has had two runs, both in maiden hurdles and now runs in a bumper for first time. She finished 4th both times, last run looks poor at first glance as she was beaten 40 lengths but the clear winner may turn out to be decent. Clongorey's time was only 1.9 secs slower than the winner of 0-95 handicap hurdle on same card, so I don't think the run is as bad as it looks. Having said that she still needs to improve, but I am hopeful.
Form of debut run worked out well, with the 2nd & 7th horses winning maiden hurdles next time, and there have been 3 other winners come out of the race.
I am not sure about the conditional jockey as he doesn't have a great record, would have preferred Jack Kennedy to stay on it, so that's a bit of negative.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Clongorey (12/1) finished only 4th of 11.
Bet #23 - 5:45 Chelmsford - Charlatan, win bet
The favourite Bold Suitor looks way too short now, so I think there is value in opposing him, and Charlatan is one of those that look capable.
He won 3 weak class 6 handicap/classified stakes start of year. He ran four times on turf during the summer without success but was not fancied in market for most of those. He still placed 2nd last twice and from 3 lbs lower than at start of summer, so interests me on this return to all weather (3 wins from 5 races on AW compared to 0 from 7 on turf).
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He hasn't had a lot of exposure to this course, just one run here finishing 3rd of 8. Although he needs to improve on that as that was off 8 lbs lower it was his handicap debut and first run after 8 months off, I think he will like this course.
Course & distance winner H Key Lails looks a danger.
Bet #23 - 5:45 Chelmsford - Charlatan, win bet
The favourite Bold Suitor looks way too short now, so I think there is value in opposing him, and Charlatan is one of those that look capable.
He won 3 weak class 6 handicap/classified stakes start of year. He ran four times on turf during the summer without success but was not fancied in market for most of those. He still placed 2nd last twice and from 3 lbs lower than at start of summer, so interests me on this return to all weather (3 wins from 5 races on AW compared to 0 from 7 on turf).
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He hasn't had a lot of exposure to this course, just one run here finishing 3rd of 8. Although he needs to improve on that as that was off 8 lbs lower it was his handicap debut and first run after 8 months off, I think he will like this course.
Course & distance winner H Key Lails looks a danger.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Short of time today, so just a short write up.
Bet #24 - 2:20 Haydock - Lovely Spirit, win bet
Made her debut on soft going, and ran well to finish 3/10, so today's testing conditions should be ok. Yet to finish out of first 3 in any of her 5 races, and although gone up 2 lbs for finishing 2nd last time, that looked a stronger race. Down in class, I am hopeful of a good run. Trainer does quite well in nurseries and had another winner 3 days ago.
Bet #24 - 2:20 Haydock - Lovely Spirit, win bet
Made her debut on soft going, and ran well to finish 3/10, so today's testing conditions should be ok. Yet to finish out of first 3 in any of her 5 races, and although gone up 2 lbs for finishing 2nd last time, that looked a stronger race. Down in class, I am hopeful of a good run. Trainer does quite well in nurseries and had another winner 3 days ago.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Last two bets, Charlatan (5/1) finished tailed off last & Lovely Spirit (7/2) finished 2nd of 5.
Bet #25 - 6:00 Wolverhampton - Souffionne, win bet
A risky one as the selection does need to improve having been beaten 6 lengths here three weeks ago in a weaker race. But with the original favourite out, it looks an open race and at a double figure price I feel Souffionne may represent a bit of value.
Hopes for improvement hang on the first time blinkers, trainer's horses often improve for them. And although Ali Rawlinson has never ridden a winner for Palmer (0 from 4, all priced 18/1 or bigger), I still feel it is an interesting jockey booking. Overall, Rawlinson has quite a good record when riding horses for the first time, and also he has a good record in head to heads against most of the jockeys in this race.
Selection's form is nothing special but at least he is still unexposed, and has run well at this course (over further) from 15 lbs higher earlier in the year.
Bet #25 - 6:00 Wolverhampton - Souffionne, win bet
A risky one as the selection does need to improve having been beaten 6 lengths here three weeks ago in a weaker race. But with the original favourite out, it looks an open race and at a double figure price I feel Souffionne may represent a bit of value.
Hopes for improvement hang on the first time blinkers, trainer's horses often improve for them. And although Ali Rawlinson has never ridden a winner for Palmer (0 from 4, all priced 18/1 or bigger), I still feel it is an interesting jockey booking. Overall, Rawlinson has quite a good record when riding horses for the first time, and also he has a good record in head to heads against most of the jockeys in this race.
Selection's form is nothing special but at least he is still unexposed, and has run well at this course (over further) from 15 lbs higher earlier in the year.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Last selection Souffionne (14/1) finished only 8th of 10.
Bet #26 - 4:08 Aintree - Kapability, win bet
Newcomers take up top 3 spots in the market, and it's one of these that I am siding with. Kapability's sire Authorized has a 24% strike rate (19 from 78) on NHF debuts for LSP of +12. Among all stallions with 150+ runs in NHF races, Authorized has one of the highest win rate for individual winners.
Owners, the Cheshires, have had some good horses (all of them with Chris Gordon) including 2 winners (Leave Of Absence & Presenting A Queen) and 2 placed (20/1 & 40/1) from just 10 debuts in bumpers in last 5 seasons. As far as I know, this is their first runner with Anthony Honeyball, who has a better record than Gordon in bumpers, and booking of Cobden looks a positive.
2 of the 3 runnings of this race with 1 lb wfa allowance have been won by the 4 year olds. The race won by 5yo only had three 4yo s in it. Claim Du Brizais, another 4yo, also has a good chance, but I feel Kapability offers better value.
Bet #26 - 4:08 Aintree - Kapability, win bet
Newcomers take up top 3 spots in the market, and it's one of these that I am siding with. Kapability's sire Authorized has a 24% strike rate (19 from 78) on NHF debuts for LSP of +12. Among all stallions with 150+ runs in NHF races, Authorized has one of the highest win rate for individual winners.
Owners, the Cheshires, have had some good horses (all of them with Chris Gordon) including 2 winners (Leave Of Absence & Presenting A Queen) and 2 placed (20/1 & 40/1) from just 10 debuts in bumpers in last 5 seasons. As far as I know, this is their first runner with Anthony Honeyball, who has a better record than Gordon in bumpers, and booking of Cobden looks a positive.
2 of the 3 runnings of this race with 1 lb wfa allowance have been won by the 4 year olds. The race won by 5yo only had three 4yo s in it. Claim Du Brizais, another 4yo, also has a good chance, but I feel Kapability offers better value.
mlmrob
Sire
Super work well done
F
Frontrunner
mick
Sire
Congrats Re Kapability
F
Frontrunner. 
Chesham
Sire
Well done
F
Frontrunner
Frontrunner
Stallion
Thank you
mlmrob ,
mick ,
Chesham , and everyone.
Kapability won @ 10/3.
Bet #27 - 2:00 Galway - Moonhall Church, win bet
A risky one today, and it's a much bigger price, but I am hoping it will run well. Moonhall Church is one of only 3 in this nursery to have ever won a race. That win came in a claimer at Fairyhouse last month. She has contested 3 strong handicaps since the, first two were higher class and she finished down the field. Even last time out at Dundalk that was a stronger race (0-83) than this, and although 6/14 she was only beaten a length. This 0-72 where she is the top weight, looks much easier race and should go close providing she handles the testing conditions.
Her sire Churchill gets good results with his 2yo s, and has had 17 2yo winners in last year at a good strike rate. Don't know a lot about the trainer as he has only been training for a year, this was his first 2yo winner. Hopefully the quick turnaround of 10 days since her last run won't be a problem.
mlmrob ,
mick ,
Chesham , and everyone.Kapability won @ 10/3.
Bet #27 - 2:00 Galway - Moonhall Church, win bet
A risky one today, and it's a much bigger price, but I am hoping it will run well. Moonhall Church is one of only 3 in this nursery to have ever won a race. That win came in a claimer at Fairyhouse last month. She has contested 3 strong handicaps since the, first two were higher class and she finished down the field. Even last time out at Dundalk that was a stronger race (0-83) than this, and although 6/14 she was only beaten a length. This 0-72 where she is the top weight, looks much easier race and should go close providing she handles the testing conditions.
Her sire Churchill gets good results with his 2yo s, and has had 17 2yo winners in last year at a good strike rate. Don't know a lot about the trainer as he has only been training for a year, this was his first 2yo winner. Hopefully the quick turnaround of 10 days since her last run won't be a problem.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Moonhall Church (25/1) finished 5th of 16, not a bad run considering the price but no returns.
No bet today, I had been considering one in 2:44 Dundalk but the price doesn't make it worth risking now. Zabeir was heavily gambled last time from 25s down to favouritism but failed to place, finishing 7/14. The money has come for him again this morning (15/8 from 11/2), he is certainly handicapped to win and this is an easier race but with a record of 1 from 18 it would seem crazy to get involved at such a short price now so i will just watch. At bigger prices, one of the handicap debutants Profit Surge could have place chances but not too confident of that either.
No bet today, I had been considering one in 2:44 Dundalk but the price doesn't make it worth risking now. Zabeir was heavily gambled last time from 25s down to favouritism but failed to place, finishing 7/14. The money has come for him again this morning (15/8 from 11/2), he is certainly handicapped to win and this is an easier race but with a record of 1 from 18 it would seem crazy to get involved at such a short price now so i will just watch. At bigger prices, one of the handicap debutants Profit Surge could have place chances but not too confident of that either.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Bet #28 - 2:05 Ascot - Kotmask, win bet
Competitive race, so not expecting a lot but I have taken a chance on Kotmask. Booking of Caoilin Quinn has played a big part in my decision to back this. Quinn has a 16% win rate over the past year and is good value for his 3 lbs claim, a claim he is close to losing and my thinking is Gary Moore will be looking to make use of it to land a good prize somewhere.
Kotmask's last win came under this jockey at Plumpton in February. He does need to improve a little bit as he is still 2 lbs higher than that win, and also all his winning form so far has been on softer going than this. He is still lightly raced though, having run in just 9 handicap chases so there is possibility of improvement to come.
Competitive race, so not expecting a lot but I have taken a chance on Kotmask. Booking of Caoilin Quinn has played a big part in my decision to back this. Quinn has a 16% win rate over the past year and is good value for his 3 lbs claim, a claim he is close to losing and my thinking is Gary Moore will be looking to make use of it to land a good prize somewhere.
Kotmask's last win came under this jockey at Plumpton in February. He does need to improve a little bit as he is still 2 lbs higher than that win, and also all his winning form so far has been on softer going than this. He is still lightly raced though, having run in just 9 handicap chases so there is possibility of improvement to come.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Good run from Kotmask (9/1), but just came up a couple of lengths short.
Bet #29 - 2:20 Kempton - Penzance, win bet
Highly progressive last winter, winning four 10f handicaps in succession on polytrack and tapeta. He is of interest now returning to all weather after 4 unplaced runs on turf (is 0 from 6 on turf). His rating of 95 looks a bit low, in 18-year history of this race the lowest rated winner has been 97, but he was rated 100 before running on turf and I feel he can at least run up to that level back on AW.
That may still not be enough be as top two in betting here are rated 108 & 105, but both are trying artificial surface for first time. So, not a lot of expectation but I am hopeful of a good run and could win if other two fail to run up to their turf mark.
Bet #29 - 2:20 Kempton - Penzance, win bet
Highly progressive last winter, winning four 10f handicaps in succession on polytrack and tapeta. He is of interest now returning to all weather after 4 unplaced runs on turf (is 0 from 6 on turf). His rating of 95 looks a bit low, in 18-year history of this race the lowest rated winner has been 97, but he was rated 100 before running on turf and I feel he can at least run up to that level back on AW.
That may still not be enough be as top two in betting here are rated 108 & 105, but both are trying artificial surface for first time. So, not a lot of expectation but I am hopeful of a good run and could win if other two fail to run up to their turf mark.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Yesterday's race went according to the market and Penzance (9/2) was only 3rd of 7.
Bet #30 - 3:09 Redcar - Red Mirage, win bet
Feeling quite positive about this one's chances today but that's not always a good thing. Red Mirage has won off as high as 90 (Chester) in the past but even his form this season gives him a good chance in this class 5 event, a class he has rarely been able to drop down to. Only previous time he was rated low enough to enable him to drop down to class 5, he won at Catterick at start of this season (OR 77). Despite not running too badly in some of the races since then, his mark has now dropped to 76. Distance and going are fine, and although first run at this course I don't think it will be a problem.
The two at top of betting (Temper Trap & Ey Up It's Jazz) are both consistent types, so both have chances but neither of them is a frequent winner at this level. TT has not won above class 6 for over 2 years, and EUIJ is still on a higher mark than his last win which came 18 months ago. So, I feel this is a winnable race for my selection.
Bet #30 - 3:09 Redcar - Red Mirage, win bet
Feeling quite positive about this one's chances today but that's not always a good thing. Red Mirage has won off as high as 90 (Chester) in the past but even his form this season gives him a good chance in this class 5 event, a class he has rarely been able to drop down to. Only previous time he was rated low enough to enable him to drop down to class 5, he won at Catterick at start of this season (OR 77). Despite not running too badly in some of the races since then, his mark has now dropped to 76. Distance and going are fine, and although first run at this course I don't think it will be a problem.
The two at top of betting (Temper Trap & Ey Up It's Jazz) are both consistent types, so both have chances but neither of them is a frequent winner at this level. TT has not won above class 6 for over 2 years, and EUIJ is still on a higher mark than his last win which came 18 months ago. So, I feel this is a winnable race for my selection.
Frontrunner
Stallion
Last bet was a loser.
Back after another short break. LSP after 30 bets YTD is -10.32
5:50 Newcastle - Parisiac, 0.5 pt E/W @ 10/1 (4 places, 1/5th odds)
Parisiac is 0 from 7 on all weather, and has not raced at Newcastle before but 6 of those 7 AW runs were in higher class, in only AW run in class 5 he finished 3/12 @ 33/1 (Wolv, 6f). That was in a similar race to this and off same mark (75) as today. 5f shouldn't be a problem here with a strong pace likely. Has mostly run well on turf since joining Iain Jardine this summer and won impressively in class 4 at Nottingham last time, up 6 lbs for that but now drops in class on return to AW.
Back after another short break. LSP after 30 bets YTD is -10.32
5:50 Newcastle - Parisiac, 0.5 pt E/W @ 10/1 (4 places, 1/5th odds)
Parisiac is 0 from 7 on all weather, and has not raced at Newcastle before but 6 of those 7 AW runs were in higher class, in only AW run in class 5 he finished 3/12 @ 33/1 (Wolv, 6f). That was in a similar race to this and off same mark (75) as today. 5f shouldn't be a problem here with a strong pace likely. Has mostly run well on turf since joining Iain Jardine this summer and won impressively in class 4 at Nottingham last time, up 6 lbs for that but now drops in class on return to AW.
D
Deleted member 7256
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Best of luck
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Stallion
Thanks @Sean ,
R
rbtblb82
Parisiac (12/1 SP) ran ok but finished just out of places (5/12).
Bet #32 - 2:25 Huntingdon - Go To War @ 5/4
Short price, but was progressive for Fergal O'Brien winning 3 of 6 starts including last two in novice hurdles, switch to Nicky Henderson looks a big positive. Henderson is 11 from 25 (+12 LSP) in handicaps with horses joining him from other stables when priced 7/2 or shorter. Stable is in good form, from 58 runners in last 30 days, 35 were making their seasonal debut and from these 11 won for LSP of +5.08 including 7 from 12 that were priced 7/4 or shorter.
Henderson's record in this race is not great, last winning it in 1997, he has had seven runners in this since then including a couple of favourites, but 2nd fav Rock House trainer Dan Skelton is also 0 from 5 in this. Hobbs and Lavelle are only other trainers in this race that have won it before but both are represented by outsiders today.
Parisiac (12/1 SP) ran ok but finished just out of places (5/12).
Bet #32 - 2:25 Huntingdon - Go To War @ 5/4
Short price, but was progressive for Fergal O'Brien winning 3 of 6 starts including last two in novice hurdles, switch to Nicky Henderson looks a big positive. Henderson is 11 from 25 (+12 LSP) in handicaps with horses joining him from other stables when priced 7/2 or shorter. Stable is in good form, from 58 runners in last 30 days, 35 were making their seasonal debut and from these 11 won for LSP of +5.08 including 7 from 12 that were priced 7/4 or shorter.
Henderson's record in this race is not great, last winning it in 1997, he has had seven runners in this since then including a couple of favourites, but 2nd fav Rock House trainer Dan Skelton is also 0 from 5 in this. Hobbs and Lavelle are only other trainers in this race that have won it before but both are represented by outsiders today.
davejb
Dam
Hard luck mate,
hope the next goes one better for you.
Incidentally, Nicky H is a top trainer, and has darn good jockeys available, but having had a tiny share in one he trained for several years I began to feel that perhaps some horses (including mine) would do better with a smaller yard where they might perhaps benefit from a change in style. I was pleased to see my lad move to anthony Honeyball, even happier when he won three on the trot having hardly ever run over the past 5 years - a series of injuries kept him out year after year, AH seems to have managed to keep him sound and I only wish the move had been made earlier when Glynn might perhaps have made a bigger splash due to not being 10yo! 3 from 6 by the previous yard is no bad thing at all, I wouldn't assume Nicky H will manage better (or any other trainer for that matter) than the chap with a 50% win rate with the horse. Not, in my mind, a big positive, more likely a bit of a disagreement over where to aim the horse!
Dave
hope the next goes one better for you.
Incidentally, Nicky H is a top trainer, and has darn good jockeys available, but having had a tiny share in one he trained for several years I began to feel that perhaps some horses (including mine) would do better with a smaller yard where they might perhaps benefit from a change in style. I was pleased to see my lad move to anthony Honeyball, even happier when he won three on the trot having hardly ever run over the past 5 years - a series of injuries kept him out year after year, AH seems to have managed to keep him sound and I only wish the move had been made earlier when Glynn might perhaps have made a bigger splash due to not being 10yo! 3 from 6 by the previous yard is no bad thing at all, I wouldn't assume Nicky H will manage better (or any other trainer for that matter) than the chap with a 50% win rate with the horse. Not, in my mind, a big positive, more likely a bit of a disagreement over where to aim the horse!
Dave
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