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Thoughts and selections

Thank you mick mick , it's good to see you posting again too, I hope your health has improved now.

Help Me Rhonda finished only 5th, so yet another loss. It's been a stop start year for me with only 15 bets so far producing just the one winner at 9/4, only positive from that is that at least I haven't had too many bets.
 
So you have now found a reliable method of picking horses to lay!
Alternatively work on the idea that you've picked at least one to discount..... this is of limited use in 20 runner handicaps unfortunately.

On a more serious note, good to see you and I hope things start to work out for your efforts.
Dave
 
davejb said:
So you have now found a reliable method of picking horses to lay!
Alternatively work on the idea that you've picked at least one to discount..... this is of limited use in 20 runner handicaps unfortunately.

On a more serious note, good to see you and I hope things start to work out for your efforts.
Dave
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Haha, trouble is they will probably win when I start laying them. Thanks davejb davejb, I am back again after a short break, this time trying a longer priced one.

Bet #16 - 2:55 Killarney - Rodeeve, 0.5 pt e/w @ 16/1 (most bookies paying 4 places)

Rodeeve finished down the field (12th of 13) on Dundalk debut in the spring when starting at a big price, with a similar performance 2nd time. But notably put in an improved effort on 3rd start when encountering heavy going (7f) for first time to finish 3rd of 16 @ 250/1. Her two runs since then in maidens at Gowran and Fairyhouse have been ok, finishing within 4 lengths of the winner on each occasion, the favourite in last race Declaree (2nd) is a very consistent type so form looks reliable.

Trouble is Rodeeve has appeared to weaken at finish over 7f so I am not completely sure she will stay the mile. Having said that, pedigree suggests it shouldn't be a problem, and also this is a weak handicap that she is starting off in from a mark of 65 and last 3 runs in maidens suggest she should be competitive at this level, so at the price I am prepared to take the risk.
 
davejb said:
Are you perhaps holding your racing paper upside down?
Click to expand...
It seems to turn upside down whichever way I try to hold it. Rodeeve would have won by a street had the contest been to find the horse that could run backwards fastest. I am not giving up though, not yet anyway, back for more punishment today.

Bet #17 - 2:30 Huntingdon - Vivid Pink

Vivid Pink is trying this two and half miles trip for first time, and that is the angle I am taking into this race hoping that the step up in trip will bring some improvement. She has run over further than this once (UR) but that was in a maiden hurdle where she was 125/1, so I will ignore that. Her dam Pink Diamond is yet to produce a winner but she herself was a winner on flat over 10f and related to a stayer on the flat, which makes me think that this mare will stay this trip.

She doesn't have many miles on the clock, having run just 7 times for Alan King, she still has time to get her first win in a weak looking race with a few exposed ones in there. Handicap mark of 93 looks about ok.

Arguably her best effort so far came here at Huntingdon when finishing a close 2nd (28/1) in a maiden over 2 miles, behind an odds on winner now rated 117. Her sire Sea The Moon has had a winner at the course this year from just 4 runners, with form figures of 2102 (the 0 was a 125/1 shot).

So I believe the course will suit, and I hope the distance will too. But the way my selections are running, I should be thinking about laying it.
 
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F Frontrunner you have well proven your judgement on this forum by way of pre race selections plus reasoning. Downdraws sometimes prolonged are part of the price i would imagine all backers endure at times including myself, but long term profits are the real test and straightener and your form on balance says your odds on to get back on track. :)
 
Papers do that as bit too often in my experience. Good to see today's pick ran 2nd - I'm sure you'd have preferred a win of course but it's nice to see our picks at least hitting the bar rather than landing in the stands. (Got a bit carried away with my footy analogy there, considering I don;t like the game).

Keep it up, I hope you manage to hone your skills and start clobbering the bookies.
Dave
 
Thank you mick mick , davejb davejb

Vivid Pink (11/1) ran encouragingly to finish 2nd, unfortunately I didn't do it each way but better than finishing last as with previous day's selection.

Bet #18 - 4:45 Newmarket - Higher Leaves. 0.5 pt e/w (most bookies paying 4 places)

Risky in opposing the very strong favourite Dance Sequence for Godolphin, that's why I have gone each way with this one hoping it will finish in first 4 at least. Won a Dundalk maiden over 10 and half furlongs at start of season, beating a horse who has since gone close at Group 3 level.

Big price and only 8th of 12 in the Ribblesdale (Gr2) but seemed to show improvement last time for an easy win in a Listed race in France. Stepping back up in class but manner of that win suggests she should be capable. Last time she beat another Godolphin favourite in Rock'n Swing. Both Rock'n Swing & Dance Sequence had run for Godolphin in Prix Diane and betting (13/1 & 10/1) suggested there wasn't a lot between them so I see it as a positive that my selection has beaten one of them already.

Higher Leaves has stamina so should be staying on at the finish, hoping that she will also have the speed to stay close enough.
 
Thanks P PHS, @Sean, mlmrob mlmrob, Chesham Chesham, and everyone.

3rd place for Higher Leaves (12/1) for just a small profit of 0.7 pt, but I will take any returns at the moment as it's been a while.

Bet #19 - 3:55 York - Bryant

Not very confident about this as the front two in betting have both shown enough to suggest they could win a race like this, but the prices have made me take a chance on the newcomer Bryant. Selection's sire Wootton Bassett produced his best performance on very testing conditions to win the Grand Criterium, and his progeny's record is also slightly better than average on soft going, so I believe today's conditions will suit if he has enough ability. His dam Steip Amach was a consistent performer at Listed/Group 3 level, and won two Group 3s over 7-8f including as a 2yo so pedigree looks good.

Bryant cost 220,000 guineas as a yearling, nothing special about that price tag as it's still below average for a WB colt, but owners Amo Racing have done very well with this sire's progeny. 4 of the 5 2yo WB colts to have raced in Amo Racing colours won on debut for LSP of +15.50. A word of caution about that stat is that in all those races at least half the field was made up of newcomers, unlike in this race where Bryant is the only newcomer taking on experienced runners which makes things that much harder.

So not a lot of expectation, but hopefully he will run well. Market drift is not a problem as owners' horses often run well despite drifting in betting. Only 2 places on offer and front two in betting both having good chances too, each way isn't really an option so just gone all or nothing.
 
Bryant (9/1) finished 4th of 7.

Gone for an obvious one today, but not too confident that's why I have gone each way despite the price being only around 5/1.

Bet #20 - 4:45 Goodwood - Rhoscolyn, 0.5 pt e/w

Rhoscolyn has such a good record in these conditions here, winning 5 of 6 races he has contested on soft or heavy at Goodwood, 4 of them in this class. Also 7 of his 9 wins have come when running within 20 days so quick return is not a worry.

Ed Greatrex rides for first time, he has been a different jockey since coming out of retirement, 31 winners at strike rate of 18% for LSP of +164, even if we take out the 125/1 winner these are still healthy returns.

Rhoscolyn has never won off a mark this high though, 2 lbs higher than his 1 length win over CD last month, and there are potentially improving 3yo s like Marcella & Arkhalia Flynn (not much between those two based on their run at Epsom two weeks ago), that's why I am cautious and taken the seemingly safer option of betting each way.
 
Rhoscolyn (4/1) 2nd, so just a small loss of 0.1 pt. After 20 bets, numbers for year to date are -14.15 pts.

Bet #21 - 2:00 Hereford - Moodofthemoment, win bet

Taking a chance in going against what may be a good thing, but it's a silly price imo, let's see.

Moodofthemoment has shown improved form in 3 runs since joining this stable, finishing 2nd on each occasion. All 3 of those runs coming over 16-17f at Worcester. Steps back up in trip to 2 miles 5 now, which I think is a positive, has placed form over 2 and half miles, and although yet to win under rules, he is 4 times winner in point to points. Drops down in class from class 4 last time, and I feel this slightly bigger field than last time will also help.

He was initially given a rating of 107 over hurdles which may have been a bit high, but from this mark of 96 he should remain competitive.
 
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