BC, I think you are a sad case and need help
,not from me, but possibly from one of my gurus Tim Drakeford, formerly of Racing Systems Builder.
A person whose knowledge and experience I respect. Let's begin with this from a free e-book he publishe about a decade ago:-
Here then, are the rules for making money by gambling:
1.) Identify an activity which is partly governed by chance, but whose outcome is overall predictable, because some reasonable principles underlie it.
2.) Identify the organisations or people who will bet with you on the outcome of the activity. By bet, I mean that the organisations or people will offer you odds about the outcome or a range of possible outcomes.
3.) Develop a method which allows you to estimate the probability (likelihood) of each of the possible outcomes.
4.) Develop a strategy for ensuring that you only bet each time with the organisation or person who is offering you the best odds ratio for any given outcome, and that this odds ratio is sufficiently favourable to generate a large short-term return on a sequence of such bets. (In Britain, this means betting with the bookmakers. Bookmakers are the punters’ friends, even though they only offer the equivalent
overall odds of between 10/11 and 4/6 on horse racing, to get back to the coin tossing analogy. But there are some vital differences. Neither the bookmakers nor the punters know the true odds. The rate against the punters varies in different types of race. Bookmakers are in competition, so their odds on offer differ, and the odds fluctuate through time as different punters make their betting decisions.)
5.) Save up or otherwise acquire a betting bank. This is an amount of money which you have in your possession or will have in your possession and are mentally willing to lose. (All of it).
6.) Develop a method which allows you to calculate the optimum size of bet in relation to the bank each time. Optimum in this context means the amount to stake that will produce the greatest return
in the long run.
7.) Ensure that the underlying logistical mechanisms are in place which will allow you always to place your bet when the odds ratio is at a maximum.
Alright! - I can already hear your objections - you’re no good at mental arithmetic, you’re a taxi driver, not a professor of mathematical and statistical theory, you can’t even think of anything in category 1, let alone move on to categories 3 & 4 with respect to it..... and so on.
At this point I can hear your further objections. Are they really expecting me to believe that they have a cast-iron method of making money by gambling and that they’re going to pass it on to me
in a book? They must think I was born yesterday. Anyone who had done that would spend their time lying on the beaches of the world with a mobile phone, not sweating away at a word-processor!
But, you misunderstand. We have said that making money by gambling is simple. We have not said it is easy.
(This me - more to follow if you wish)?
