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VDW The Elementary Mechanical Procedure

I've been taking a break, mainly as the UK mainland cards have looked pretty ropy for punting on paper. Just the time of the season for racing and soft ground could be the reason, but also prize money on offer. Today doesn't look much different in truth to me, although decent prize money on offer.
Just going to stir the pot testing out the VDW way to narrow the field from the whole field in a race.

Doncaster (S scattered showers)Mkt odds from 10am. J&T Gosden yard top track trainer. Class 4 3yo+ sprint hcap over 6f with 9 runners.
4.25 Mkt expected no's 6, 5, 2, 1, 3 indicationg an open contest.

1. 000XX
2. XXX00 Eye Of Dubai 7 (9/2mkt)
3. 00000
5. XXX00 The Eyes Have It 7 (4/1)
6. XXXXX Nariko 6 (4/1)
7. XX000
8. X00XX
9. XXX00 Danzan 8 (14/1)
10. 00000

My comment: Dutch 2, 5, 6
ATR form verdict to compare with the above.
Cut in the ground would appear to hold the key to Nariko, who struck at Haydock in May before following up on her return at Salisbury earlier this month. Hugo Palmer's improving three-year-old merits the utmost respect, but the vote goes to SUMMERGHAND. This is the first time David O'Meara's veteran has contested a class 4 handicap since winning over C&D off 3lb lower in May 2018 and having performed with credit in the Ayr Silver Cup last month, he can exploit it to record an 18th career triumph. Danzan heads the remainder.
ATR Top Tip: Summerghand (1)
Watch out for: Nariko (6)
Timeform verdict
IRISH NECTAR caught the eye when fifth in a big field at York last time out so edges the vote in this very open sprint. Hugo Palmer's recent Salisbury scorer Nariko is weighted to have a big say and rates the chief threat, with The Eyes Have It, Danzan and The Coffee Pod all worthy of consideration too.
Timeform 1-2-3
Irish Nectar (7)Nariko (6)The Eyes Have It (5)

VDW 2nd Method to Reduce the Field 25/8/1979 (employed in tandem with the 1st method 6/4/1978).

1) From the last 2 placings of each horse mark with a star* placed 1, 2, 3, 4.
2) Select in days the 5 most recent runs.
3) Select from the above the 3 most consistent by adding together the last 3 placings of the respective horses.

N.B. 2 sets of ratings are also included in the illustration but only to compare possible reasons for difference of opinion.
with the methods selections. (later such ratings were included for confirmation of selections as part of 'working platforms'
 
OK Gordon go get 'em for me - I need it!

Ascot (G watered) Mkt odds from 9.20am. P Nicholls yard top track trainer runs Solo.
3.45 Early mkt expected no's 1, 9, 6, 8 indicating a win retsricted to these.

1. Chianti Classico 7 £164 (5/2 mkt)
9. Highstakesplayer 3 £79 (9/2)
6. Amirite 21 £59 (5/1)
8. Neon Moon 5 £102 (5/1)

MY comment: I would omit 6 and dutch the others at current odds.
ATR form verdict to compare with the above
HIGHSTAKESPLAYER reappeared from a long absence to score at Kempton in February and after possibly bouncing in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury 22 days later, he then registered another Kempton victory. Having gone well fresh on a right-handed track previously, this unexposed staying chaser gets the vote to score off 5lb higher. Cheltenham Festival winner Chianti Classico wasn't disgraced when fourth in an Aintree Grade 1 and enters calculations, with Amirite and Neon Moon just two more to consider.
Top Tip: Highstakesplayer (9)
Watch out for: Chianti Classico (1)
Timeform erdict
Lots with chances but Ultima hero CHIANTI CLASSICO begins his second season as a chaser on an attractive mark and with better to come from Kim Bailey's highly progressive sort he looks very much the way to go. Highstakesplayer boasts an impressive strike rate over fences and heads the list of dangers, although the lightly-raced Our Power is also weighted to have a say and in-form duo Hidden Depths and Mylesfromwicklow need factoring in too.
Timeform 1-2-3
Chianti Classico (1)Highstakesplayer (9)Our Power (non-runner)
 
Trying a non-hcap, which I usually avoid, but it is a class 1 listed.

Carlisle (GS some G hse cse watered) Mkt odds from 11am.
2.53 Early mkt expected no's 1, 2, 7 indicating a win from these.

1. Galia Des Liteaux 14 £199 (11/10)
2. El Elefante 6 £40 (11/4)
7. Teressita 5 £170 (9/2)

MY Comment: Just a point Terresita for interest.
ATR form verdict to compare with the above
El Elefante certainly caught the eye on her chasing debut when sauntering home to win eased down at Worcester last month and, if she takes a step forward for that first start since April, then she looks a serious danger to all. Smiling Getaway also won on her only start over the larger obstacles and she is another to consider, but GALIA DES LITEAUX may make the most of a drop in class. Eighth in the Grand National last time out, she has had wind surgery since and could take this to start off a rewarding season that may end up back at Aintree.

Top Tip: Galia Des Liteaux (1)
Watch out for: El Elefante (2)

Timeform
Verdict
GALIA DES LITEAUX made a winning return in a similar event at Market Rasen last season before going on to have a solid campaign, and she looks the one to beat again on her comeback this time around. El Elefante and Smiling Getaway (non-runner) both made a bright start to their chasing careers when winning on return and are obvious threats.

Timeform 1-2-3
Galia Des Liteaux (1)El Elefante (2)
 
Only exceptional punters win on most Mondays as it's usually the layers benefit day in my experience. Let's find out if Gordon was exceptional
;)
.

Plumpton (G watered) Mkt odds from 9.10am. C Gordon yard to track trainer.
3.05 Early mkt expected no's 4, 6, 2 indicating a win restricted to these.

4. Irish Hill 10* £120* (11/4 mkt)
6. Yellow Star 15 £41 (11/4)
2. Onemorefortheroad 8* £88 (7/2)

MY comment: Dutch 4 & 2 at curent mkt odds.
ATR form verdict to compare with the above.
ONEMOREFORTHEROAD has made the frame on each of his last two outings at this level and he now sports a first-time visor. Neil King's nine-year-old remains on a workable mark and should have no issues with the step back up in trip to get his head back in front. Irish Hill is a lot better than he showed when pulled up at Chepstow on his return and has to be considered. Yellow Star is another to note.
Top Tip: Onemorefortheroad (2)
Watch out for: Irish Hill (4)
Timeform erdict
YELLOW STAR could prove suited by this increased test of stamina and is preferred to Irish Hill, who ran a stinker in the Silver Trophy but is well treated if a change of headgear and a return to calmer waters sparks a revival. Onemorefortheroad has run well back hurdling this autumn and should also feature.
Timeform 1-2-3
Yellow Star (6)Irish Hill (4)Onemorefortheroad (2)
 
Redcar (Soft) Mkt odds from 10.20. T Easterby yard top track trainer runs Poets Dawn 15 £53 25/1 early mkt.
2.00 Early mkt expected no's 3, 5, 7 indicating a win restricted to these.

3. Have Secret 20 £131* 2 tips
5. Liberty Coach 4* £80* 5 tips. J&S Quinn 20% recently
7. Bust A Move 21 £62 1 tip

MY comment: Liberty Coach has most appeal for me. I quite like Loyal Touch but not supported early by connections?
ATR form verdict to compare with the above.
HAVE SECRET was far from disgraced when a running-on fifth in a hot York handicap before posting a low-key effort in a similarly strong race at Doncaster. With his sights lowered off what looks a more-than-manageable mark, Richard Fahey's charge gets the vote to return to winning ways. Loyal Touch (14* £79* 18/1mkt?)merits respect on the strength of his victory over this trip at Pontefract in September, although he needs to leave a subsequent lacklustre display behind. A 3lb rise doesn't discount recent C&D runner-up Liberty Coach.
Top Tip: Have Secret (3)
Watch out for: Loyal Touch (1)
Timeform verdict
It could be worth chancing HAVE SECRET, who has spent the majority of the last two seasons contesting strong Class 2 handicaps and he has dipped to a potentially handy mark. Bust A Move hasn't had his conditions the last twice but there will be no excuses in that regard here and he is feared most ahead of the in-form Liberty Coach.
Timeform 1-2-3
Have Secret (3)Bust A Move (7)Liberty Coach (5)
 
I can't identify anything to put up today, and there is plenty of low grade stuff about to avoid betting on. Fer instance Mussleburgh principal card UK mainland feature race class 2 2yo maiden stakes over 7f £16k penalty prize - we need divine help!
I tried the Kem 5.30 where I thought the class of Tritonic (7/4 mkt) from A King yard in form might prevail over the recent course form of Cool Party 3/1), but not sure?
Even tried Dundalk 4.10 and thought Future Cutlet (5/1) on form but difting from the early mkt, and others have better prize class?
 
This is an absolutely straightforward basic VDW 'mechanical procedure', and all the better for that I say
:D
.

Doncaster (Soft) Mkt odds from 9.25am. J&T Gosden yard top track trainer no runner.
3.45 November Handicap
4. Miller Spirit 3* £172* (11/1)
6. Chillingham 15 £30 (10/1)
8. Stressfree 7* £125* (9/1)
11. Valvano 8 £37 (7/1)
15. Master Builder 7* £275* (13/2)
17. Flash Bardot 11 £70 (14/1)

MY Comment: Dutch no's 4, 6, 15 at current odds for me. At the weights Flash Bardot would be an old-time each-way shot for me
:P
.
ATR form verdict to compare with the above.
VALVANO caught the eye when third to the subsequent Listed winner Bolster on his handicap debut over 1m2f at York last month. The son of Night Of Thunder may improve now stepped up in trip and could prove well handicapped. The consistent Stressfree finished a place in front of the selection at York but may not be able to confirm the form on these terms. Master Builder and Minstrel Knight are other progressive three-year-olds to consider, while Oneforthegutter and Chillingham boast each-way claims.
Top Tip: Valvano (11)
Watch out for: Stressfree (8)
Timeform verdict
A typically competitive renewal of this valuable season finale and MILLER SPIRIT is taken to continue his ascent by completing the four-timer. He appeared to have a bit left up his sleeve when getting the better of the re-opposing (and much-respected) Flash Bardot at Newbury and a 7 lb rise looks manageable. Unexposed 3-y-o Valvano is feared most on the back of an encouraging handicap bow third at York, while the aforementioned Flash Bardot, Master Builder and Stressfree are others to consider.
Timeform 1-2-3
Miller Spirit (4)Valvano (11)Flash Bardot (17)
 
tractorboy tractorboy a fair question but it's due to following as closely as possible the originial Gordon Hill system, as I see it! First rule is to only consider the first six in the SP forecast and I believe he used the Daily Mail at the time, as he was a fan then of Formcast Nigel Taylor. I took my data from the online Racing Post card, as I am a fan of Spotlight ,as it was, that compiles their IP (industry prices).
 
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Fairyhouse 5.00 Irish Grand National (S-Soft/Heavy showers) Mkt odds shown from 9.25am. Just a basic VDW rating

1. Better Days Ahead (16/1 mkt) 6*, £3rd*, G Elliot rated 20
3. Johnnywho (12/1) 8
4. Boluminessence (8/1) 8, £1st*, G Cromwell rated 23
14. Haiti Couleurs (13/2) 5*
15. Now Is The Hour (15/2) 5*, £2nd*, G Cromwell rated 16
26. Kinturk Kalanski 8 (9/1)

MY comment: No's 1, 14, 15 1pt each for interest
 
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Gordon Hill gave the winner of the Irish grand national yesterday, so this is one for today as per his second system posted posted in the Raceform Hcap Book about 18 months after his his first.

Pontefract 3.57 a 4yo+ sprint hcap over 5f on going fcast GS with 13 runners. Mkt odds from 10.30am. D Tudhope top track jock.

7. Dark Cloud Rising 4* (8/1 mkt) D Tudhope up. Favourable draw.
11. Arklow Lad 5* (15/2). Poor draw.
My comment: 1pt each for interest.

At The Races advice in comparison:-
KYLIAN won off this mark at Wolverhampton in January 2025 before going on his travels around the world, which included a Listed success in Germany. The five-year-old shaped encouragingly on his first start for Robert Cowell when fifth at Southwell and that outing should bring him on nicely. Dark Cloud Rising won on this card 12 months ago and has to be respected, while others to note include Arklow Lad and Wobwobwob.
Top Tip: Kylian (1) (VDW 2*)
Watch out for: Dark Cloud Rising (7)

Expert View Verdict​

A very good quality and competitive sprint handicap. Kylian and ATOMIC FORCE both appeal. The latter won going away as if a stiffer test would suit last time and is fancied to improve for this stiff track. Kylian is a class act, ran well on his seasonal debut and should come on for that run. Arklow Lad may be third best, he is consistent and cheekpieces could eke out a little more from him.
Atomic Force (4)
Kylian (1)
Arklow Lad (11)
 

Mapping the Front End: A Fast, Even Break​

By cross-referencing the Timeform In-Running Pace Symbols (IPS) and the detailed RaceIQ sprinting metrics, we can map out the tactical flow for this 5f Class 2 sprint at Pontefract:

  • The Early Forcer: Atomic Force (IPS 4, 1, 1p) is the clearest natural speed in the retained field. Two starts ago at Lingfield, he "tracked front pair" but last time at Southwell he "led, raced freely". His RaceIQ 0-20mph acceleration times (2.43s, 2.80s, 2.78s) consistently rank in the top half of the field.
  • The Prominent Trackers: Spartan Arrow (IPS 2, 2f, 2) and Seven Questions (IPS 4, 1, 3) both map to sit immediately behind the leaders. Spartan Arrow is consistently ridden prominent, while Seven Questions led overall early at Doncaster before fading.
  • The Mid-Division Closers: Purosangue (IPS 2, 3, 2), Kylian (IPS 3, 3p, 4r), and Dark Cloud Rising (IPS 4, 1, 5) all prefer to be waited with in midfield. Purosangue has the highest top speeds of the closers (up to 42.80mph), but Kylian has the elite finishing kicks (105.05%, 105.24% Fin Spd).

The Upgraded Master Matrix (Fully Locked In)​

Here is the permanently locked-in tactical master matrix for our elite 6-horse retained field. It integrates the live-odds Bowers Rating, the CCR (Class Ceiling Rating), algorithmic PR% (capped at 100%), full TFR/Tfig splits, detailed RaceIQ metrics, and the full Timeform comments.

HorseBowers & CCRTFR / Tfig (Last 3)Algorithmic PR% (Last 3)Detailed RaceIQ Metrics (Last 3)Full Timeform Comments & IPS (Most Recent First)
2 Spartan ArrowBowers:5.5
CCR:111.0		TFR:98, 72, 58
Tfig:99, -, -		0%, 0%, 0%
(Severe structural decline)		Top Spd:43.73mph, 42.39mph, 41.66mph
Fin Spd %:96.43%, 98.61%, 90.67%
0-20mph:2.91s, 2.70s, 2.67s		IPS: 2, 2f, 2 (Prominent)

1. (8/12, 25/1) ran better than he had done on the dirt at Meydan... possible he was still feeling the effects of that long trip; chased leaders, ridden 2f out, weakened final 1f.
2. (8/8, 3/1) didn't seem to relish the switch to dirt dropped in grade; close up, ridden under 2f out, carried head bit awkwardly, weakened.
3. (7/10, 10/1) failed to confirm the form of Dundalk win... shape as if in need of the run; prominent, shaken up halfway, intimidated over 1f out, weakened.
3 PurosangueBowers:9.5
CCR:111.0		TFR:85, 103, 101
Tfig:90, 96, 104		0%, 40%, 100%
(Elite class ceiling / Ground dependent)		Top Spd:37.75mph, 41.65mph, 40.52mph
Fin Spd %:93.71%, 94.58%, 99.62%
0-20mph:2.27s, 2.50s, 2.74s		IPS: 2, 3, 2 (Prominent Tracker)

1. (10/15, 14/1) probably needs the emphasis less on stamina, finding 7f on such testing ground too much; prominent main group, weakened over 1f out.
2. (4/25, 5/1F) was backed into favouritism with conditions having come in his favour but he could run to just a similar level to last time despite the addition of first-time cheekpieces; mid-field, headway over 2f out, stayed on.
3. (6/13, 5/1) gave a clue as to why his connections decided to try him at 7f the time before, lacking the required speed as he yet again encountered ground quicker than ideal; prominent, ridden under 2f out.
1 KylianBowers:13.0
CCR:105.0		TFR:101, 86, 96
Tfig:101, -, -		100%, 0%, 100%
(Needed the run / High ceiling)		Top Spd:43.52mph, 41.36mph, 42.95mph
Fin Spd %:98.28%, 105.05%, 105.24%
0-20mph:3.05s, 2.87s, 2.74s		IPS: 3, 3p, 4r (Mid-Division Closer)

1. (5/12, 10/1) ran respectably back in a handicap on first outing since leaving Archie Watson for 37,000 gns after 6 months off, not given too hard a time of things; mid-field, headway over 1f out.
2. (4/9) had a clearer run at things this time but failed to land a telling blow; soon steadied, took strong hold, pushed along entering straight, never nearer.
3. (4/10, 47/10) not for the first time this year didn't have much luck in running, shaping as though back in form but never getting any daylight until the race was all but over.
🟢 7 Dark Cloud Rising 🟢Bowers:16.5
CCR:94.0		TFR:92, 91, 94
Tfig:88, 84, 90		100%, 100%, 100%
(Course winner / Peak structural form)		Top Spd:41.74mph, 42.46mph, 40.10mph
Fin Spd %:103.81%, 98.51%, 101.61%
0-20mph:3.09s, 2.52s, 2.92s		IPS: 4, 1, 5 (Mid-Division Tracker)

1. (5/9, 6/1) mid-division in centre, pushed along 2f out, stayed on final furlong, never nearer.
2. (1/10, 4/1) mounted in chute and went early to post, tracked leaders, closed and pushed along 2f out, ridden inside last, ran on to lead closing stages.
3. (5/13, 11/2) mounted in chute, mid-division, headway over 1f out, no extra final 110yds.
6 Seven QuestionsBowers:19.0
CCR:111.0		TFR:35, 91, 97
Tfig:33, 94, 92		0%, 0%, 0%
(Severe form regression)		Top Spd: -, 42.34mph, 41.13mph
Fin Spd %:-, 95.50%, 99.45%
0-20mph: -, 2.47s, 2.96s		IPS: 4, 1, 3 (Prominent / Fading)

1. (24/25, 40/1) was scuppered by the draw for all he's not been in great form of late anyway; held up, pushed along halfway, never involved.
2. (11/21, 66/1) was in a change of headgear but continues below form, no better than mid-division on any of his starts this year; raced far side, led overall, headed before halfway, weakened.
3. (7/10, 8/1) back down in trip, on one hand may be best at speed-favouring tracks, but on the other has been going through the motions at them this season.
4 Atomic ForceBowers:20.0
CCR:102.0		TFR:102, 96, 69
Tfig:83, 92, 56		100%, 100%, 0%
(AW specialist shifting to turf)		Top Spd:41.49mph, 42.60mph, 42.32mph
Fin Spd %:103.16%, 106.02%, 96.17%
0-20mph:2.43s, 2.80s, 2.78s		IPS: 4, 1, 1p (Pace Setter / AW to Turf)

1. (1/9, 6/1) was a smart juvenile before his spell in Hong Kong and is really beginning to hit his straps again since joining current yard... touch, headway over 1f out, led last ½f, well on top finish.
2. (1/8, 7/2) wasted no time getting back to form... showing a willing attitude to land his first race for current stable... in touch, headway over 1f out, edged ahead final 50 yds.
3. (7/7, 7/2) showed more speed this time but shaped as if better for the run after 10 weeks off; led, raced freely, headed over 1f out, weakened.
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The Profiler Synthesis & Tactical Verdict​

The mathematical Bowers hierarchy places the highest-rated horses at the top, but the deeper HRB Profiler data reveals massive structural vulnerabilities in the market leaders.

Spartan Arrow (9/2) mathematically anchors the field, but his profile is toxic. His Timeform ratings have completely cratered (98 to 72 to 58) across three completely different surfaces (Tapeta, Dirt, Turf). He is out of form.

Purosangue (9/2) is a class act (111.0 CCR), but he is highly dependent on ground conditions. Timeform notes he "lacked the required speed as he yet again encountered ground quicker than ideal." With the ground Good (Good to Firm in places), he is structurally compromised. He needs soft ground.

🟢 Dark Cloud Rising (13/2) is the definitive mechanical and structural standout. While his 94.0 CCR is lower than the top weights, he is the only horse in the elite tier firing on all cylinders with a flawless 100%, 100%, 100% PR% profile. The Profiler exposes him as a true course and ground specialist. He won this exact race last year ("won on this card 12 months ago") and has 2 wins from 4 runs on Undulating tracks (like Pontefract). Furthermore, he thrives on quicker ground (2 wins, 3 places from 6 runs on Good, 1 win from 4 on Good-to-Firm). He maps perfectly to track the pace and strike late.

Atomic Force (12/1) has bounced back to form (100% PR% last two runs), but his wins came on the Polytrack at Chelmsford and Lingfield. His turf form is much patchier, but his elite top speeds (42.60mph) and finishing kicks (106.02%) make him a viable threat if he translates the AW form.

Kylian (12/1) is the smartest Exacta partner. Timeform explicitly notes he "ran respectably... after 6 months off, not given too hard a time of things." The Formscan preview agrees ("that outing should bring him on nicely"). He won a Listed race last year and possesses elite acceleration. With that prep run out of the way, his 105.0 CCR makes him dangerous at double-digit odds.
 
Looks fairly humdrum racing on the UK mainland today and not anything to get excited about. Lt's stick with Gordon and see if he would be any good on the artificial surface..

Kem 7.30 (St to Slw) Mkt odds from 10.40am. a class 4 3yo sprint hcp on f/cst St to Slow over 6f with 8 runners.

2. Return Of The Gods 4*(4/1 mkt) Off track 170 days?
3. Hello Spaceboy 4* (5/2) Off track 135 days?
8. Arry Up 5* (11/4)

My comment: I will dutch 8/3 and omit 2. More of a form race to my mind than a hcap as the handicapper only had an 8lb range to work with.

At The Races advice in comparison:
Both Hallo Spaceboy and Return Of The Gods could be well treated off their opening marks, but it was hard not to be impressed by the way in which ARRY UP won over C&D recently. The manner of that success suggests he might still be ahead of the handicapper under a 6lb penalty and despite a sharp rise in grade, Rod Millman's charge gets the vote.
Top Tip: Arry Up (8)
Watch out for: Hallo Spaceboy (3)
ARRY UP looks the one to beat after a dominant success here last time and, with further improvement likely, he could still be ahead of the handicapper despite the rise. Hallo Spaceboy is an interesting contender now switching to handicaps after some solid novice form and is respected on his return. Return Of The Gods showed a good attitude to get off the mark last time and, with more to come, shouldn’t be discounted in what looks a competitive sprint.
Arry Up (8)
ReturnOf The Gods (2)
Hallo Spaceboy (3)
 
Quick armchair VDW selections today down the card from those considered the early market expected range whilst watching TV. Nothing serious with 1 pt per selection.

Aintree (GS light rain)
1.45 Early mkt expected 10, 5, 6, 9, 7
5. Majestic Conti 5* (7/2)
6. Minella Study 4* (4/1)

2.15 Expected 4,3 (no bets)
4. Lulamba 5* (4/7)
3. Koktail Dawn 2* (11/4)

2.55 xpected 2,1 (no bets)
2. Jingo Baie 5* (5/4)
1. Impaire Et Passe 1* (7/2)
 
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This course was one punters were advised to avoid - let's see!
Epsom (G watered) Mkt odds from 9.50am. Top track yard A Balding. Top track jockey O Murphy.
2.05 Runman 1/5
2.40 Saxon Street 13/8
3.15 Rathgar 4/1
3.50 Topteam 9/4 - A Balding/OMurphy
4.23 Timber Twelve 9/4
4.58 Mr Baloo (6/1)
 
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