VDW The Elementary Mechanical Procedure

[JennyK]

BC

re handicaps and non-handicaps, it is worth recalling what VDW said about race selection in the first major exposition of his approach - the March 1981 article titled (presumably by Tony Peach) "Van Der Wheil Spells It All Out":

".... starting with the principal meeting ...

1. Select the most valuable race on the card.

2. Consider next most valuable race.

3. Select most valuable race from other cards."

No mention here of either handicaps or non-handicaps, just value of race.

He then identified the five races that met the criteria from the cards on 7 March 1981, which happened to be three non-handicaps and two handicaps.

I think VDW thought that some were afraid of handicaps but said he found them "happy hunting grounds" and arguably two of his three most informative race discussions were handicaps (those won by Roushayd and Pegwell Bay).

The template below is the way to approach a VDW analysis:

Abil. Form Cap.

Roushayd 231 y
Clifton Chapel 94 y n
Vouchsafe 58 y
Positive Way 32 n
High Tension 28 n
Tender Type 24 y
Joseph 10 n
Freeby's Preacher 0 n
Ile de Chypre 0 ?

For any race, handicap or non-handicap, flat or nh, past or future, from a VDW perspective that is essentially what is required to see if there is a probable winner.

I can't get the template to come out very well, but after the horses names the ability and form columns are his methods of rating (the first explicitly explained (with a variation of method for young horses on the flat), the second left to be discovered by examining his examples). The third (which is my view has four components, weight, trip, going and course type) largely obvious, but worth noting that VDW seemed much less concerned about whether a horse had proven it could manage on, eg the going, than with ones which in his view had shown they couldn't. In other words, it is the "n" (for no) that is crucial for sorting out the probable winner. In the example, highest ability-rated horse Roushayd was also a "form" horse and had no capability issues. In fact only one horse had such an issue, Clifton Chapel: "the distance is all wrong"). Thus Roushayd was the probable winner, which VDW often referred to as the class/form horse.

The real complication with his approach is not this first stage, but the second one, once one had identified the probable winner; sorting out which of the less than twenty percent should be backed. On that he was not very forthcoming but left examples and clues as to how to do it.

 

[Chesham]

HI BC

Have you ever noticed that the VDW enthusiasts never post informative analysis like the Aftertimed Roushayd and Pegwell Bay step by step procedure. It tends to be naming a horse who will win, with no explanation why the other runners have been eliminated. Or even worse they name a horse who they are watching but can’t back . Even Lee only named a horse he was backing or not backing.

Also noted that the suggestions below are not taken on board as the enthusiast are tackling class 6 races and again without breaking the race down to explain the elimination process .
starting with the principal meeting ...

1. Select the most valuable race on the card.

2. Consider next most valuable race.

3. Select most valuable race from other cards."

The opposite side of the coin is Eric Bowers who was not using aftertimed examples , but outlining the method of elimination in detail, so that every one can arrive at a similar destination.

Also how to find Balanced Handicaps that can be split into 3 tiers.

 

[Jackform]

BC, I think you are a sad case and need help ,not from me, but possibly from one of my gurus Tim Drakeford, formerly of Racing Systems Builder.
A person whose knowledge and experience I respect. Let's begin with this from a free e-book he publishe about a decade ago:-

Here then, are the rules for making money by gambling:
1.) Identify an activity which is partly governed by chance, but whose outcome is overall predictable, because some reasonable principles underlie it.
2.) Identify the organisations or people who will bet with you on the outcome of the activity. By bet, I mean that the organisations or people will offer you odds about the outcome or a range of possible outcomes.
3.) Develop a method which allows you to estimate the probability (likelihood) of each of the possible outcomes.
4.) Develop a strategy for ensuring that you only bet each time with the organisation or person who is offering you the best odds ratio for any given outcome, and that this odds ratio is sufficiently favourable to generate a large short-term return on a sequence of such bets. (In Britain, this means betting with the bookmakers. Bookmakers are the punters’ friends, even though they only offer the equivalent overall odds of between 10/11 and 4/6 on horse racing, to get back to the coin tossing analogy. But there are some vital differences. Neither the bookmakers nor the punters know the true odds. The rate against the punters varies in different types of race. Bookmakers are in competition, so their odds on offer differ, and the odds fluctuate through time as different punters make their betting decisions.)
5.) Save up or otherwise acquire a betting bank. This is an amount of money which you have in your possession or will have in your possession and are mentally willing to lose. (All of it).
6.) Develop a method which allows you to calculate the optimum size of bet in relation to the bank each time. Optimum in this context means the amount to stake that will produce the greatest return in the long run.
7.) Ensure that the underlying logistical mechanisms are in place which will allow you always to place your bet when the odds ratio is at a maximum.

Alright! - I can already hear your objections - you’re no good at mental arithmetic, you’re a taxi driver, not a professor of mathematical and statistical theory, you can’t even think of anything in category 1, let alone move on to categories 3 & 4 with respect to it..... and so on.
At this point I can hear your further objections. Are they really expecting me to believe that they have a cast-iron method of making money by gambling and that they’re going to pass it on to me in a book? They must think I was born yesterday. Anyone who had done that would spend their time lying on the beaches of the world with a mobile phone, not sweating away at a word-processor!
But, you misunderstand. We have said that making money by gambling is simple. We have not said it is easy.

(This me - more to follow if you wish)?