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The Art of Pre-Race Pace Analysis

Bit late but up now

11/6/14
Beverley
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.1
7 = 1.0
8 = 1.1
Haydock
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.1
Yarmouth
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.4
5 = 1.2
6 = 1.2
7 = 1.1
Hamilton
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.1
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
Kempton
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = no write up
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0

12/6/14
Newbury
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
8 = 1.1
Nottingham
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
8 = 1.2
Yarmouth
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.2
6 = 1.1
7 = 1.1
Haydock
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0

13/6/14
York
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.0
4 =1.0
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
Musselburgh
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.4
4 = 1.3
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.2
7 = 1.1
Sandown
1 = 1.2
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
Goodwood
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.1
Chepstow
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.2
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.3
7 = 1.1
 
14/6/14
York
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.2
7 = 1.0
Musselburgh
1 = 1.2
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.1
Chester
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
Sandown
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.1
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
Bath
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.2
7 = 1.0
Leicester
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
Lingfield
1 = 1.2
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = .0
6 = 1.2
7 = 1.0
 
Sunday
15/6/14
Doncaster
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.2
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
Salisbury
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.2
8 = 1.0
 
Monday
16/6/14
Carlisle
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
8 = 1.0
Nottingham
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.2
3 = 1.1
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
Windsor
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.2
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.1
7 = 1.0
Had noticed of the ones I put up to keep an eye on,I got a 11/2 winner . And a 100/1 second with a few running today as well.
 
Tuesday
17/6/14
Ascot
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.2
Thirsk
1 = 1.3
2 = 1.2
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.4
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.2
7 = 1.0
8 = 1.0
Brighton
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.2
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.1
7 = 1.1
Nottingham
1 = 1.2
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.1
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
 
18/6/14
Weds
Ascot
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
Hamilton
1 = 1.3
2 = 1.2
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
8 = 1.0
Ripon
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.2
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.2
6 = 1.0
 
Bit late as usual but busy person of late

19/6/14
Thursday
Ascot
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
Ripon
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.1
Southwell
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
Liecester
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.1
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.3
Lingfield
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
20/6/14
Friday
Ascot
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
Redcar
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.4
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.2
5 = 1.3
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.1
Goodwood
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.1
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.3
Newmarket
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.2
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
21/6/14
Saturday
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.2
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.0
Ayr
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.2
3 = 1.1
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.1
7 = 1.2
Haydock
1 = 1.3
2 = 1.2
3 = 1.1
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.0
Lingfield
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.1
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.1
7 = 1.0
Newmarket
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.1
7 = 1.0
Redcar
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.1
 
Monday
23/6/14
Chepstow
1 = 1.2
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.3
7 = 1.0
Lingfield
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.2
3 = 1.1
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
8 = 1.0
Thirsk
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.5* Zac Brown will go in again, Escaping Midge will get a win soon.
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
Windsor
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.1
24/6/14
Tuesday
Beverley
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.2
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
Brighton
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.2
3 = 1.3
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.1
7 = 1.0
Newbury
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
 
25/6/14
Weds
Bath
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.2
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
Carlisle
1 = 1.2
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0
Kempton
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.1
Salisbury
1 = 1.2
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.2
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.1
7 = 1.1
26/6/14
Thurs
Carlisle
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.3
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.4
5 = 1.2
6 = 1.1
Newcastle
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.4
7 = 1.0
Yarmouth
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.2
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.1
7 = 1.0
Hamilton
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.5
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.1
7 = 1.0
Leicester
1 = 1.2
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.2
4 = 1.2
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.0

I hope these are helping anyone who is using them,there have been a couple more winners from the list.
 
Hi Michael231 Michael231 are you still on with your pace analysis. Just had another look at the excel file you attached with the percentage of winners at each course with reference to their running style.

Obviously this data alone doesn't tell you anything but calculating the percentage of winners against the percentage of runners for that particular running style came up with these courses as having a strong bias towards those that won from the front:

Course Winners (Led) % Runners (Led) %
BEV 23 12
CRL 25 13
CAT 28 14
MUS 24 14
LIN 31 14
NMK 19 11
NOT 24 13
PON 25 13
WAR 24 13
WIN 24 13
YAR 23 13
NMK (JUL) 23 12

The majority of courses will have a greater percentage of winners that led from the front in comparison to the amount of runners, but these courses indicate that the percentage of winners is double or almost double than the number of runners that led in races. Would be nice to know if there is a greater bias at a certain distance or not and if this same bias exists on the straight sprint races. Might be profitable to try and identify horses that may be able to get a soft lead at these tracks and make all from the front.
 
Proform list all course and distance pace stats.

The last race at Leicester tonight 0ver 1m 60y for instance.

wins/runs IV P/L
Led 30/125 2.37 £152.54
Prominent 58/496 1.15 £-101.86
Held Up 36/602 0.59 £-312.59
 
By all aged does Horseplayer mean 4yo+ or including 3yo+ now.

I'm thinking the distance and track type have an impact on P/L and I would guess draw might also on sharp tracks.

Presumably bends are a pace horses friend, I would guess the success rate but maybe not profit would be less on a straight course?

Does HRB list the track characteristics anywhere, I know I can set them when designing systems but are they noted anywhere?


David
 
Last edited:
Pace has a distinct impact at specific distances on certain courses (as of course does the draw).

I spoke with the vendor at HRB prior to shelling out for Proforms' Platinum subscription. Although the course and distance pace stats aren't currently available, fingers crossed they are included at some point as personally I find HRB more user friendly.
 
horsesforcourses87 said:
I'm trying to get to terms with judging the pre-race pace analysis and how it may positively or negatively effect a selection. I'm aware of websites like patternform that provide fantastic information on how each horse may run today but how can we be sure that this is going to happen?

The race that sticks out from yesterday is the 4.05 at Lingfield. They seemed to go off at a ferocious pace and the horses held up struggled to make up the ground in the closing stages with the exception of Rivellino who was the closest of the held up horses to the pace.

My basic understanding of pace is that the more horses that want the lead and that are prominent will increase the early pace of the race and may favour horses that are coming off the pace in the closing stages as they have best conserved their energy. Alternatively a horse that is single handedly allowed to set the pace may have a greater chance of winning from this situation.

Can anybody shed any further light on pace analysis?
"It's not how fast they run, it's how they run fast".

Cheers
Lee
Click to expand...
I think that is a magical question, I studied the 9:20 Kempton 13 Aug 2014 and found there should be a fast pace with 3 front runners in the race. None of them led and Galation a horse that I thought would just sit behind the pace led most of the way. I was confused to say the least
 
David Punshon said:
I think that is a magical question, I studied the 9:20 Kempton 13 Aug 2014 and found there should be a fast pace with 3 front runners in the race. None of them led and Galation a horse that I thought would just sit behind the pace led most of the way. I was confused to say the least
Click to expand...

Hi David

On the IS we have been using Horseplayer Horseplayer Pace Scores and have found them very reliable. Horseplayer produces a fairly in depth Race Card for each race. The Chesham Rating in the first column is not a Speed rating but a Class rating for the horses LTO race. The SP1 & SP2 are Horseplayers art two Speed Ratings

Underneath is Colour Coded Speed Ratings (Red indicates led in those races) The last three Speed Figures, followed by the highest speed figure this Season and then last seasons notable speed figures.

Screen Shot 2014-08-14 at 13.57.23.png

Screen Shot 2014-08-14 at 13.57.32.png

Screen Shot 2014-08-14 at 13.57.53.png

There are also Raw Speed ratings that ArkRoyal ArkRoyal posts for me which are measured against RP Standard Times and members can adjust them for whatever Going Allowance they decide or weight as they do not incorporate weight. (See attached File)

TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother also produces excellent Speed Ratings in Race Card Format via pika pika
 

Attachments

  • August 12 08 14 Speed-2.xls
    97 KB · Views: 19
Chesham said:
Hi David

On the IS we have been using Horseplayer Horseplayer Pace Scores and have found them very reliable. Horseplayer produces a fairly in depth Race Card for each race. The Chesham Rating in the first column is not a Speed rating but a Class rating for the horses LTO race. The SP1 & SP2 are Horseplayers art two Speed Ratings

Underneath is Colour Coded Speed Ratings (Red indicates led in those races) The last three Speed Figures, followed by the highest speed figure this Season and then last seasons notable speed figures.

View attachment 8999

View attachment 9000

View attachment 9001

There are also Raw Speed ratings that ArkRoyal ArkRoyal posts for me which are measured against RP Standard Times and members can adult them for whatever Going Allowance they decide or weight as they do not incorporate weight. (See attached File)

TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother also produces excellent Speed Ratings in Race Card Format via pika pika
Click to expand...
Very helpful thank you
 
horsesforcourses87 said:
Would it help if I was to start adding an extra column with the pace figures you produce onto your ratings?
Just starting with the AW, that way we can see instantly if it was a true pace or not in which the figure was achieved.
Click to expand...
I would like to add a pace column to my ratings any suggestions to a good way to achieve this
 
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