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The Art of Pre-Race Pace Analysis

Hi David Punshon David Punshon . I believe the easiest way is to assign a figure to each particular run style. For example let's say that we was just going to use the three run styles that are Led, Mid Division and Held up (Obviously there are more types of running styles but let's just use these three to begin with). Horses that led a race could be assigned 3 points, horses that were in mid division 2 points and those that were held up 1 point. Using the horses last five or six runs we can start to see if there is likely to be lots of pace or not.

To take this a step further and this is what Horseplayer Horseplayer does fantastically well with is that he then starts to look at the number of runners in those previous races, how fast the race was run and possibly the class (But don't quote me on that one). So for example if in an eight runner field we have two horses that each have a points score of 18 we can then assign further points to this score. Horse A has led all of his races but the highest amount of runners in his fields were only 8, whilst horse B has led a race with 14 runners in.

I'm not an expert on pace analysis but is something I find very interesting. Since I have started to assess the likely pace of the race i'm more aware of pundits on the television stating that there is plenty of front runners in this race and therefore a blistering pace should be expected but often it's not the case due to the above. Have a look at this article and see if it helps http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/racing/horse-racing-pace-figures/

Cheers
HFC
 
M
Hi David Punshon David Punshon . I believe the easiest way is to assign a figure to each particular run style. For example let's say that we was just going to use the three run styles that are Led, Mid Division and Held up (Obviously there are more types of running styles but let's just use these three to begin with). Horses that led a race could be assigned 3 points, horses that were in mid division 2 points and those that were held up 1 point. Using the horses last five or six runs we can start to see if there is likely to be lots of pace or not.

To take this a step further and this is what Horseplayer Horseplayer does fantastically well with is that he then starts to look at the number of runners in those previous races, how fast the race was run and possibly the class (But don't quote me on that one). So for example if in an eight runner field we have two horses that each have a points score of 18 we can then assign further points to this score. Horse A has led all of his races but the highest amount of runners in his fields were only 8, whilst horse B has led a race with 14 runners in.

I'm not an expert on pace analysis but is something I find very interesting. Since I have started to assess the likely pace of the race i'm more aware of pundits on the television stating that there is plenty of front runners in this race and therefore a blistering pace should be expected but often it's not the case due to the above. Have a look at this article and see if it helps http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/racing/horse-racing-pace-figures/

Cheers
HFC
Many Many Thanks
 
M

Many Many Thanks
I think that is were I was getting it slightly wrong too. 9:20 Kempton on Wednesday for example I read as having 3 front runners and the race should suit a horse coming from behind, Galation ( not one of my 3 front runners) led for the majority of the race and won
 
Theres all sorts to take into account such as the distance, jockey etc. One of the races that sticks out for me this year was the Princess of Wales Stakes (Group 2) 1m4f. No pace whats so ever in the race but Cavalryman had led on a couple of occasions and tracked the leaders before. The horse had being running over 2m in Dubai in much better races and I felt the horse would get a soft lead and be able to win from the front and he duly obliged.
 
Hi formtheory formtheory Sorry to drag up an old thread but I came across this the other day and as I am attempting to delve into pace analysis on the AW, your post regarding 'Uncle Will's Notebook' was of interest to me. May I ask what site you used for your post race analysis? I have noticed that for some of the sprint races that you really only end up with what the horse did leaving the stalls and from one furlong out, which is not always when the race for the line has started.

I am currently reading Beyer On Speed and obviously we have a lot less information to go off than our American friends but this is definitely something I want to put some time into.
 
Is anybody reviewing the race video after the event and comparing to their pace analysis?
Just checking the race result will throw you off course.
You need to review every runner in a race to get a true pace evaluation
Check the Peter Marsh Chase out as an example.
How would anyone evaluate the pace in that race?
Video evidence is paramount imo :think:
 
Hi dicko14 dicko14 I do try and watch the race in the evening to see how it compared to my pre-race analysis. I am currently trying to use a method suggested by formtheory formtheory but as it originates in America, I am finding it difficult to calculate the first pace figure which takes the horses position after a furlong. Easy in America with their sectionals etc but not so easy with 'held up'/'in the rear'.
 
Hi Martin!

Sorry for the late reply! I used guess work in the main and the comments in the post.

If a 12 runner field and said held up in rear I simply put 12. Was just a rough estimate for each horse but still worked pretty well.

Didn't use it on jumps mainly A.W.
 
Hi formtheory formtheory No problem, thanks for getting back to me.

I only plan on trying it for the AW and flat. Currently trying to incorporate Jon Gibby's pace handicapping method instead of P1 but needs a bit of work to give the correct decimal score. An interesting method though and I can see it proving useful. Thank you for posting it!
 
Pace wins the race by Ricky Taylor is a good book I can recommend. He gives a scoring system and you will know what type of race is about to be ran.
 
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