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The Art of Pre-Race Pace Analysis

Thanks for those links Waxy a mine of information there,I do like the US racing but don't get much time to watch due to time diff and other commitments,may try it out at a later date and see how it goes.
 
Michael231 Michael231 ,have been looking at the 1:45 york today,big field softish ground,so not ideal for pacey sorts,but when you look,not that much pace in the race,the two in the race that grab my attention for different reasons are ,Awake my soul(dropping in trip,well enough handicapped).,and Storm king,who made a good impression first time at the trip after a decent pace performance.,I may be tempted to look on the place market for these two see which offers the better value.?
 
Waxy
I think it will come down to who can keep with the pace here today and if KING´S WARRIOR can keep within 6 lnths of the pace I think will take a lot of beating,especially considering the price, but with so many in the race I would leave it alone.[URL='http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?race_id=600613&r_date=2014-05-14&horse_id=795496']STORM KING and [URL='http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?race_id=600613&r_date=2014-05-14&horse_id=814697']AWAKE MY SOUL I think are out classed.Looking where the pace will be I think the winner will come from 10 and higher,If it wasn't for the fact that I think Storm King and Awake my Soul were out classed I'd probably agree with you.[/URL][/URL]
So my few that I'd look further into would be Numbers 11,13,14,17,18 out of those I like [URL='http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?race_id=600613&r_date=2014-05-14&horse_id=727921']CASHPOINT[/URL]
out of the handicap by 2lbs but I believe will run a big race even for it's age only because the pace may be a slow one, and also too slow for Rye House and he may take it up himself we shall see.Do not let me put you off of your selections I'm not perfect so you stand as good a chance as any,and knowing me I've got it all wrong,and it's not set in stone,hopefully I will be able to see the race on the telly.:think:
 
Here's me doing the calculations
image3.jpg
 
The slow start did for KW.
Think the winner was well plotted. Good enough to run in the Scottish Champion Hurdle and then jumping from a maiden to Class 2.
 
York 14/5
1 = 1.3
2 = 1.4
3 = 1.7
4 = 1.4
5 = 1.2
6 = 2.0
7 = 1.0
Chepstow 14/5
1 = 1.5
2 = 1.8
3 = 1.3
4 = 1.2
5 = 1.3
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.7
 
York 15/5
1 = 1.5
2 = 1.2
3 = 1.6
4 = 1.2
5 = 1.4
6 = 1.6
7 = 1.0
Salisbury
1 = 1.5
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.1
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.2
6 = 1.3
7 = 1.3
Newmarket
1 = 1.2
2 = 1.5
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.3
5 = 1.5
6 = 1.2
7 = 1.5

Just asking if any of this is helpful to anyone !
 
Michael231 Michael231
Thanks for posting these figures.
What I think is needed now is some contextual meaning to follow up what you are doing.
For example.
Yesterday's race 3 at Newmarket was the lowest pace figure 1.0
This was a Class 4 Maiden for 3 year olds run over 1m 2f
The winner was Tabreek
How do we move this forward?
 
The way forward with this would be as each race has a pace number for each race each horse in that race will have the same pace number.Going by where and how it raced in the race should give a way of gauging how it will race in a future race,like will it be able to run with horse's that have a lower or higher number say if it ran in a race where it had a number of 1.5 and finished fourth how would it fare in a race where most others were from races of 1.3 or lower will it come from off the pace or will it lead and stay there,this is where the numbers show how the race will pan out hopefully, but you will have to look at others that have a number close to it and see how they ran there best in what ever race they either won or were close to the winner.This way I believe it cuts out most of the runners to look at further.
 
You could add a line to your database that you have already and for the race put in the figure for all those in each race could be a copy down to next race and so on,that is what I will be doing when I get the time,that is why I have started using the dates with the figures so I can go back some time and add them.
 
I did read a book by Jon Gibby ,who gave some very useful advice on this subject,iIdo not want to reveal the facts(stored inside my inner sanctum);)
 
If it's the one I'm thinking of it was a very good read learnt a lot from it also got the one for the 3 year olds as well.
Don't know when i'll get to the inner sanctum no doubt I have a few more posts to do yet.
 
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The interesting bit I took from the pace points subject,was adding those points for all the runners and then taking a percentage,also the use of draw stats to arrive at a selection,not the best book,but a few snippets of very useful method.

4pts led,2pts,close to ,tracked leader,etc

Anyway gonna shut up, they will be kicking me off here if i keep talking points.
 
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A bit later than I expected but here it is:
16/5/15
York
1 = 1.5
2 = 1.2
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.4
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.5
Newbury
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.5
3 = 1.1
4 = 1.1
5 = 1.5
6 = 1.3
7 = 1.1
8 = 1.0
Newmarket
1 = 1.3
2 = 1.2
3 = 1.5
4 = 1.2
5 = 1.3
6 = 1.1
7 = 1.4
Hamilton
1 = 1.5
2 = 1.2
3 = 1.2
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.4
6 = 1.3
7 = 2.0
 
17/5/14
Newbury
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.5
3 = 1.3
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.1
Newmarket
1 = 1.5
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.6
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.3
Thirsk
1 = 1.2
2 = 1.1
3 = 1.2
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.3
7 = 1.0
8 = 1.0
Doncaster
1 = 1.0
2 = 1.5
3 = 1.3
4 = 1.6
5 = 1.0
6 = 1.0
7 = 1.4

18/5/14
Ripon
1 = 1.1
2 = 1.0
3 = 1.0
4 = 1.0
5 = 1.1
6 = 1.1
7 = 1.0
8 = 1.3
 
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