• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

The 2.5 goal market trial...

Definitely... the Chinese league averages almost 3 goals a game this season, so is easy to pick their over 2.5 goals. The trial's Swedish league on the other hand averages around the 2.5 goals a game, so is much more difficult to use any sort of predictor or system to pick winners from that league. Ideally for the purpose of this trial I should include Brasil's Serie A or Serie B as both of those leagues average much lower at around 2.1 goals a game and would be interesting to see if it picks up a few under 2.5's.
 
Today's Chinese games...

74674

Personally, I would bet on the first 3 games as having over 2.5 goals each - the home teams are strong favourites against much weaker opposition, and my own calc reckons the same (Soccervista also predicts 3 goals each to the home teams). The bottom 2, I would only put over 1.5 goals as they are more even affairs (even though the combined goals average for the Shenzhen v Chongqing game is 3.19 goals !).
Also worth noting, while there might not appear to be much value in an over 1.5 goals market for such a high scoring league, I have BetAngel automation drip-feeding bets into the relevant market, and the longer the game goes on/odds rise, it works out quite well for me.
 
I love it when a plan comes together - 3 goals each to the top 3 games, 2 goals each in the other 2... exactly the way I saw it going. :D

And also very nice to get a 5 team 4 fold (less risky straight win market) including the top 3 teams (and 2 from yesterday) come in 100% - triple return on my initial stake.
 
Going well paulb164 paulb164 keep them coming be nice to get a couple of 100 selections in the bank and see where it is then. Had many systems over the years like yours but most fell over a cliff. My main focus is inplay these days time consuming but profitable...
 
I'm very much an in-play better/trader as well... if I'm not actively playing the markets myself I have BetAngel to do it for me. But I have to say I have better methods than this system for predicting goals (as I mentioned a couple of posts ago with what I think would happen with Wednesday's games). As however good this trial is, it's more labour-intensive and time-consuming compared to my other methods that I really doubt I would use it as a viable method for picking my 2.5 goals.
 
The trial's Saturday Chinese predictions;

74711

In theory, the plan says that for every single point under or over +/-5 should be an extra stake point - as the first game is scored at 6, it should have 2 points of staking, but I am just going at level stakes for the sake of the trial.
Betfair Sportsbook has the over 2.5 goals at a miserly 1.44, and my goal calc says 3.11 goals.
 
paulb164 said:
The trial's Saturday Chinese predictions;

View attachment 74711

In theory, the plan says that for every single point under or over +/-5 should be an extra stake point - as the first game is scored at 6, it should have 2 points of staking, but I am just going at level stakes for the sake of the trial.
Betfair Sportsbook has the over 2.5 goals at a miserly 1.44, and my goal calc says 3.11 goals.
Click to expand...
BF Exchange has that pre-starting at 1.61 - I'm going to let it run with a preset bid at 1.7
 
wow - that Chinese game finished with 6 goals ! Considering that the game had a score of 6 meant that it should have had double stakes. There was another game earlier in the trial which achieved a score of 6, and that had 5 goals !
 
Another plan prediction came off - the over 2.5 game finished with 4 goals.

While the two I put the over 1.5 goals on for, surprisingly (to me at least) only 1 of the games managed to get more than 1 goal.

Plan results now stand at;
74864

I have to say, despite it being early days so far... 33% ROI in 2 weeks with just 8 picks is quite impressive ! And bearing in mind this is just testing 1 league. If I were to test leagues with either low average goals per game to capture the unders, and high averages (like the Chinese league) for the overs, then it could identify quite a few matches.
 
I've decided to add the Brasilian Serie A to this thread - the league average is a relatively low 2.27 goals per game, so I want to see if I can capture some under 2.5 goal opportunities. The next game is below;

74875
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top