paulb164
Colt
Been trawling through the dreaded internet looking for new football angles to give me another potential stream, and came across a curious formula that a punter uses to calculate the over/under 2.5 goals of a game. Not one to miss out on a trial where I can put together an XLS to do the sums for me... I thought it was worth a paper-testing trial run. And also it's worth finding a good system on this market as the odds tend to waver around evens, which is quite good compared to my usual betting picks.
The formula works on awarding - and + points between the 2 teams based on their last 4 games' results... I'm a bit dubious that 4 games each will give a fair reflection of each team's performance, but won't know until I try it I guess.
I will test it on the Swedish Allsvenskan and the Chinese Super League - I picked these as the Swedish league has an average of 2.48 goals a game, so don't expect the system to pick many games. The Chinese league on the other hand is at 2.89 goals per game, so ought to offer more potentials (at least for the over 2.5's). The scoring works on if it goes below -4.5 then it is a candidate for the under 2.5 goal market, and a score of over 4.5 for the over 2.5 market.
These are the calculations for the upcoming games including today's;
Interesting to note that the first 2 Swedish games finished with 3 goals in each, which since their match scoring put them in that threshold buffer between -4.5 and +4.5, they were deemed to be avoided.
The formula works on awarding - and + points between the 2 teams based on their last 4 games' results... I'm a bit dubious that 4 games each will give a fair reflection of each team's performance, but won't know until I try it I guess.
I will test it on the Swedish Allsvenskan and the Chinese Super League - I picked these as the Swedish league has an average of 2.48 goals a game, so don't expect the system to pick many games. The Chinese league on the other hand is at 2.89 goals per game, so ought to offer more potentials (at least for the over 2.5's). The scoring works on if it goes below -4.5 then it is a candidate for the under 2.5 goal market, and a score of over 4.5 for the over 2.5 market.
These are the calculations for the upcoming games including today's;
Interesting to note that the first 2 Swedish games finished with 3 goals in each, which since their match scoring put them in that threshold buffer between -4.5 and +4.5, they were deemed to be avoided.