Statting Island
- Thread starter mlmrob
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mlmrob
Sire
Thanks James. 
MIDNIGHT FEAST 5.55 LINGFIELD
Midnight Feast improved for a couple of runs in blinkers but the application of the visor has had a profound effect and this once 84 rated gelding should taker plenty of beating off his new mark of 69.Two runs back he won a bunch finish at Kempton from which Intomist who finished fifth has won three since and the eighth has also won. The third home has placed since so it is quite strong form for the level. Last time he won a class 5 over course and distance in a similar to race to this and he has conditions to suit today. Kieran Fox is 2-2 on the horse.
Copperwood could rent his box out the amount of times he is away from home. He has won four times at Lingfield but he is 0-8 over this distance. He is now on a losing run of 18 but he is well handicapped.
Menelik is unexposed but he hasn’t shown much. He was beaten at odds on in a class 6 handicap at Wolverhampton in October. He should stay 8f being by Oasis Dream whose progeny have a 21% strike rate over 8f at Lingfield. However, Menelik is sure to need this as his record when fresh is unplaced twice and Tom Dascombe is 1-47 with horses in a first time visor.
Kakapuka was just behind Mister Green last time and a line through that horse means he will struggle to beat Midnight Feast on these terms. Though that defeat was over 8f, he is now 0-4 over the distance and he comes from a yard that last trained a winner on the flat over 12 months ago, 38 runners.
Mafi was a length behind Midnight Feast last time and is 3lbs better off today. He won a couple of races over course and distance earlier in the year off 58 and 64. The tongue tie has obviously made a difference and his record of 3-9 over 8f here and a further 3 placed suggests that he is racing under his optimum conditions. Wearing the tongue tie; 2611335733. Hoad has only had 5 winners from his last 100 runners and the last 19 have lost stretching back to March.
Vastly comes from a yard that doesn’t hurry horses and the grey has shown little bits of form over 10f. He hated the soft ground at Nottingham so that run is best forgotten. He should run well as he is by Mizzen Mast whose progeny run well at Lingfield. However, Julia Feilden is 2-28 in 8f handicaps at Lingfield with her last winner in 2009. She is also 12-165 with maidens running in a handicap.
Derfenna Art is 0-6 on artificial surfaces though he has a couple of seconds to his name over this course and distance. He likes to lead and he will have company which won’t suit him. Seamus Durack is 0-25 stretching back to February and is 1-29 on the polytrack here.
Titan Triumph last won in March 2012 off a mark of 80 and off 66 he could be very well handicapped. He makes his debut for Michael Attwater today. Attwater is 3-69 with horses racing for the first time for him after joining the yard from another stable and the last time he trained such a horse to win was in 2006. The horse looks like he is regressing and he is 1-14 when returning after a break of 30 days or more.
Yajber has his first run for Jamie Poulton who is 0-30 with horses making their debut for him when arriving from another yard. It has taken the horse a long time to get over a gelding operation so he is passed over.
Conclusion: Vastly is a horse it is hard to get a handle on. He could quite easily pop up here. However, tactics are going to play a big part here. Derfenna Art, Copperwood, Yajber, Kakapuka and possibly Vastly all like to race in the van which won’t suit any of them. Midnight Feast can stalk or be held up which is ideal here. He is in the form of his life and if the visor has got him back near his best he may well take a bit of beating off 69.
MIDNIGHT FEAST 5.55 LINGFIELD
Midnight Feast improved for a couple of runs in blinkers but the application of the visor has had a profound effect and this once 84 rated gelding should taker plenty of beating off his new mark of 69.Two runs back he won a bunch finish at Kempton from which Intomist who finished fifth has won three since and the eighth has also won. The third home has placed since so it is quite strong form for the level. Last time he won a class 5 over course and distance in a similar to race to this and he has conditions to suit today. Kieran Fox is 2-2 on the horse.
Copperwood could rent his box out the amount of times he is away from home. He has won four times at Lingfield but he is 0-8 over this distance. He is now on a losing run of 18 but he is well handicapped.
Menelik is unexposed but he hasn’t shown much. He was beaten at odds on in a class 6 handicap at Wolverhampton in October. He should stay 8f being by Oasis Dream whose progeny have a 21% strike rate over 8f at Lingfield. However, Menelik is sure to need this as his record when fresh is unplaced twice and Tom Dascombe is 1-47 with horses in a first time visor.
Kakapuka was just behind Mister Green last time and a line through that horse means he will struggle to beat Midnight Feast on these terms. Though that defeat was over 8f, he is now 0-4 over the distance and he comes from a yard that last trained a winner on the flat over 12 months ago, 38 runners.
Mafi was a length behind Midnight Feast last time and is 3lbs better off today. He won a couple of races over course and distance earlier in the year off 58 and 64. The tongue tie has obviously made a difference and his record of 3-9 over 8f here and a further 3 placed suggests that he is racing under his optimum conditions. Wearing the tongue tie; 2611335733. Hoad has only had 5 winners from his last 100 runners and the last 19 have lost stretching back to March.
Vastly comes from a yard that doesn’t hurry horses and the grey has shown little bits of form over 10f. He hated the soft ground at Nottingham so that run is best forgotten. He should run well as he is by Mizzen Mast whose progeny run well at Lingfield. However, Julia Feilden is 2-28 in 8f handicaps at Lingfield with her last winner in 2009. She is also 12-165 with maidens running in a handicap.
Derfenna Art is 0-6 on artificial surfaces though he has a couple of seconds to his name over this course and distance. He likes to lead and he will have company which won’t suit him. Seamus Durack is 0-25 stretching back to February and is 1-29 on the polytrack here.
Titan Triumph last won in March 2012 off a mark of 80 and off 66 he could be very well handicapped. He makes his debut for Michael Attwater today. Attwater is 3-69 with horses racing for the first time for him after joining the yard from another stable and the last time he trained such a horse to win was in 2006. The horse looks like he is regressing and he is 1-14 when returning after a break of 30 days or more.
Yajber has his first run for Jamie Poulton who is 0-30 with horses making their debut for him when arriving from another yard. It has taken the horse a long time to get over a gelding operation so he is passed over.
Conclusion: Vastly is a horse it is hard to get a handle on. He could quite easily pop up here. However, tactics are going to play a big part here. Derfenna Art, Copperwood, Yajber, Kakapuka and possibly Vastly all like to race in the van which won’t suit any of them. Midnight Feast can stalk or be held up which is ideal here. He is in the form of his life and if the visor has got him back near his best he may well take a bit of beating off 69.
Franktheform
Mare
I agree chaps although we are against eachother tonight which worries me :? :violence-duel: 
Good luck mate and i echo the thoughts of the forum your work is class
Frank
Good luck mate and i echo the thoughts of the forum your work is class
Frank
ArkRoyal
Administrator
There is a thanks button 'upgrade' that I have tested but it was a little temperamental so I haven't installed it.
The Thanks button is a must 'over there' as oneliner posts were a pain in the arse, but we are not so bothered here. In fact reading 'Thanks' on one of your threads means more to me than seeing that someone has pressed a button.
The Thanks button is a must 'over there' as oneliner posts were a pain in the arse, but we are not so bothered here. In fact reading 'Thanks' on one of your threads means more to me than seeing that someone has pressed a button.
mlmrob
Sire
Cheers guys it is very much appreciated. Just a quick thanks is brilliant, especially when things are not going well which is an awful lot in this game. But there is a common theme on the board that everyone wishes everyone the best however they come to a conclusion about a race. That is the beauty of this board.
mlmrob
Sire
LUGGERS HALL 8.15 GOODWOOD
Luggers Hall bumped into Arch Villain last time at Newmarket and although beaten 10ls he was keeping on at the death. The winner won 5ls and followed up off 8lbs higher so it was a tough ask for Luggers Hall. The handicapper has dropped him 2lbs for that and he is now just 3lbs higher than his win at Doncaster in March. He is 2lbs lower than when finishing second in this event last year and conditions will suit today. Though Tony Carroll is 8-76 in handicaps at Goodwood, last year saw a change in fortunes with 3 winners and 2 placed from just 8 runners. He needs to be held up and even though this is a small field he may well have this run to suit.
Stock Hill Fair has to lead and has been running with credit over further. This is plenty short enough for him, eighth on his only attempt at 12f, and he is 0-2 in this class. Fallon is sure to try and make this a test but the fact is, Stock Hill Fair is 6lbs higher than his win in a class 5 and that may well anchor him here.
Achalas is sure to be popular with Richard Hughes booked. He is still 3lbs higher than his win in a class 5 a year ago and he is 0-13 off marks 74-76. He is 0-16 in class 4. He likes to race prominently. Heather Main is 0-11 at Goodwood.
Palomas Prince has conditions to suit and is just 2lbs higher than his last winning mark. However, in five races off marks above 75 he has unplaced in them all and both his wins have come on his seasonal debut. He is 0-6 when returning inside a month. Jim Boyle is 9-101 in handicaps at Goodwood. The last 34 have all lost stretching back to 2009. Palomas Prince likes to lead.
All Annalena races keenly and her sole win on the flat came two years ago in a class 3 off a mark of 80. It is only now that her mark has dropped below that. She is entitled to run well and it is interesting that Dane O Neill rides her as he rode her to her only flat victory, 5-13 for the yard.
There are negatives; All Annalena probably needs a break between races as she is 0-6 when returning inside a fortnight and Lucy Wadham is yet to have a horse placed at Goodwood from four runners.
Paintball last run on the flat two years ago when with Willie Muir. He has been racing at a decent level over the sticks but he is 0-7 on right handed tracks, 0-3 here. I think this may be a confidence booster for the horse after falling twice last time in a novice chase, once when running loose.
Conclusion; Stock Hill Fair, Palomas Prince and the keen running All Annalena will make this a test. That will suit Stock Hill Fair who stays further. Luggers Hall also stays further and needs to have something to aim at. He looks a good bet to go one better than last year.
Luggers Hall bumped into Arch Villain last time at Newmarket and although beaten 10ls he was keeping on at the death. The winner won 5ls and followed up off 8lbs higher so it was a tough ask for Luggers Hall. The handicapper has dropped him 2lbs for that and he is now just 3lbs higher than his win at Doncaster in March. He is 2lbs lower than when finishing second in this event last year and conditions will suit today. Though Tony Carroll is 8-76 in handicaps at Goodwood, last year saw a change in fortunes with 3 winners and 2 placed from just 8 runners. He needs to be held up and even though this is a small field he may well have this run to suit.
Stock Hill Fair has to lead and has been running with credit over further. This is plenty short enough for him, eighth on his only attempt at 12f, and he is 0-2 in this class. Fallon is sure to try and make this a test but the fact is, Stock Hill Fair is 6lbs higher than his win in a class 5 and that may well anchor him here.
Achalas is sure to be popular with Richard Hughes booked. He is still 3lbs higher than his win in a class 5 a year ago and he is 0-13 off marks 74-76. He is 0-16 in class 4. He likes to race prominently. Heather Main is 0-11 at Goodwood.
Palomas Prince has conditions to suit and is just 2lbs higher than his last winning mark. However, in five races off marks above 75 he has unplaced in them all and both his wins have come on his seasonal debut. He is 0-6 when returning inside a month. Jim Boyle is 9-101 in handicaps at Goodwood. The last 34 have all lost stretching back to 2009. Palomas Prince likes to lead.
All Annalena races keenly and her sole win on the flat came two years ago in a class 3 off a mark of 80. It is only now that her mark has dropped below that. She is entitled to run well and it is interesting that Dane O Neill rides her as he rode her to her only flat victory, 5-13 for the yard.
There are negatives; All Annalena probably needs a break between races as she is 0-6 when returning inside a fortnight and Lucy Wadham is yet to have a horse placed at Goodwood from four runners.
Paintball last run on the flat two years ago when with Willie Muir. He has been racing at a decent level over the sticks but he is 0-7 on right handed tracks, 0-3 here. I think this may be a confidence booster for the horse after falling twice last time in a novice chase, once when running loose.
Conclusion; Stock Hill Fair, Palomas Prince and the keen running All Annalena will make this a test. That will suit Stock Hill Fair who stays further. Luggers Hall also stays further and needs to have something to aim at. He looks a good bet to go one better than last year.
mlmrob
Sire
THE LARK 4.00 EPSOM ( Each Way)
The last five runnings of the Oaks have seen 8 of the 15 places be filled by horses that were priced 16/1 or over. Seven of the eight had run in a listed or better last time and three of them had run in the Swettenham Stud Stakes at Newbury resulting in a winner and two seconds. THE LARK ran in this year’s Swettenham Stud and at 20/1 she will do for me each way.
The last five runnings of the Oaks have seen 8 of the 15 places be filled by horses that were priced 16/1 or over. Seven of the eight had run in a listed or better last time and three of them had run in the Swettenham Stud Stakes at Newbury resulting in a winner and two seconds. THE LARK ran in this year’s Swettenham Stud and at 20/1 she will do for me each way.
mlmrob
Sire
Cheers guys, here another way of finding a Derby winner. :ugeek:
RULER OF THE WORLD /OCAVANGO 4.00 EPSOM (Each Way)
Whilst the Dosage doesn’t indicate whether a horse will win a race or not, there are some serious doubts about the principals. The last 12 Derby winners have had an average Dosage Index of 1.16. The horse with the highest DI was Sea The Stars with 3.0, what!!!!, but he wasn’t a certain stayer before he came into the race. What we are looking for is a horse with a DI of 0.8 to 1.44 as 11 of the last 12 winners had that DI.
Festive Cheer 0.8
Ocavango 0.87
Magician 1.0
Ruler Of The World 1.05
Chopin 1.15
Mars 1.29
Flying The Flag 1.35
For those of you interested Dawn Approach has a Dosage Index of 1.67
The Centre Of Distribution average for the last 12 Derby winners is 0.21. A classic winner is said to have a COD figure of zero or as near to zero. We are looking for a horse with a COD of 0-0.3.
Festive Cheer 0.06
Ocavango 0.10
Magician 0.19
Ruler Of The World 0.26
So present in both lists are, Festive Cheer, Ocavango, Magician and Ruler Of The World.
The last 14 winners of The Derby have come from the first four in the betting. That leaves Ruler Of The World and Ocavango.
RULER OF THE WORLD /OCAVANGO 4.00 EPSOM (Each Way)
Whilst the Dosage doesn’t indicate whether a horse will win a race or not, there are some serious doubts about the principals. The last 12 Derby winners have had an average Dosage Index of 1.16. The horse with the highest DI was Sea The Stars with 3.0, what!!!!, but he wasn’t a certain stayer before he came into the race. What we are looking for is a horse with a DI of 0.8 to 1.44 as 11 of the last 12 winners had that DI.
Festive Cheer 0.8
Ocavango 0.87
Magician 1.0
Ruler Of The World 1.05
Chopin 1.15
Mars 1.29
Flying The Flag 1.35
For those of you interested Dawn Approach has a Dosage Index of 1.67
The Centre Of Distribution average for the last 12 Derby winners is 0.21. A classic winner is said to have a COD figure of zero or as near to zero. We are looking for a horse with a COD of 0-0.3.
Festive Cheer 0.06
Ocavango 0.10
Magician 0.19
Ruler Of The World 0.26
So present in both lists are, Festive Cheer, Ocavango, Magician and Ruler Of The World.
The last 14 winners of The Derby have come from the first four in the betting. That leaves Ruler Of The World and Ocavango.
Larry
Stallion
Well done Rob i picked ROTW also by dosage my horses were(only bet on ROTW though)
FESTIVE CHEER
OCAVENGO
ROTW
CHOPIN
MARS
FLYING THE FLAG
FC & FTF were in my opinion pacemakers, O & C won weak trials that left M & ROTW picked ROTW because it had won at the distance & had the better jockey of the 2,
Done the same for the Oaks
TALENT
MISS YOU TOO
SAY
LIBER NAUTICUS
SECRET GESTURE
MOTH
actually bet SC because of best trial run, 2nd choice would have been MOTH dismissed Talent because of its place in the betting forecast, but in all honesty if I had seen this thread could have saved myself a lot of time, although nothing beats getting to a winner by your own hard work.
Well done Again Rob & well done with Lark yesterday
all the best
Larry
FESTIVE CHEER
OCAVENGO
ROTW
CHOPIN
MARS
FLYING THE FLAG
FC & FTF were in my opinion pacemakers, O & C won weak trials that left M & ROTW picked ROTW because it had won at the distance & had the better jockey of the 2,
Done the same for the Oaks
TALENT
MISS YOU TOO
SAY
LIBER NAUTICUS
SECRET GESTURE
MOTH
actually bet SC because of best trial run, 2nd choice would have been MOTH dismissed Talent because of its place in the betting forecast, but in all honesty if I had seen this thread could have saved myself a lot of time, although nothing beats getting to a winner by your own hard work.
Well done Again Rob & well done with Lark yesterday
all the best
Larry
mlmrob
Sire
Cheers guys
Larry
I dismissed Talent yesterday and went for The Lark so I'm happy the dosage put me on track today. However, a more simpler method as my 18yo son put it, you don't call a horse Ruler Of The World if isn't going to win the Derby. Thought process one minute, £70 richer. If only, if only.
Larry
I dismissed Talent yesterday and went for The Lark so I'm happy the dosage put me on track today. However, a more simpler method as my 18yo son put it, you don't call a horse Ruler Of The World if isn't going to win the Derby. Thought process one minute, £70 richer. If only, if only.
Flipacoin
Filly
mlmrob said:Cheers guys
Larry
I dismissed Talent yesterday and went for The Lark so I'm happy the dosage put me on track today. However, a more simpler method as my 18yo son put it, you don't call a horse Ruler Of The World if isn't going to win the Derby. Thought process one minute, £70 richer. If only, if only.
There is actually some logic behind that.
Ballydoyle save the best names, or ideas of names, for their best talent. True story. So not quite as far fetched as you might think!
hayzee
Gelding
I was pleased to see you had Ruler Of The World as a selection today Rob,I had picked it for the SatPat ,as,all things being equal(as if ) I felt it offered excellent e/w value,but when I saw you'd picked it,it was as if it had been 'rubber stamped'.
The point is Rob,even when you're wrong,it's always for the right reasons,and long term you'll be in profit,with me,I'm just wrong and still have much to learn,I've said it before,and I'll say it again,brilliant work,brilliant thread 
) I felt it offered excellent e/w value,but when I saw you'd picked it,it was as if it had been 'rubber stamped'.The point is Rob,even when you're wrong,it's always for the right reasons,and long term you'll be in profit,with me,I'm just wrong
and still have much to learn,I've said it before,and I'll say it again,brilliant work,brilliant thread 
pika
Gelding
mlmrob said:Cheers guys
Larry
I dismissed Talent yesterday and went for The Lark so I'm happy the dosage put me on track today. However, a more simpler method as my 18yo son put it, you don't call a horse Ruler Of The World if isn't going to win the Derby. Thought process one minute, £70 richer. If only, if only.
Reminds me of a quote from stock traders. 10 mins spent on analysis is 9mins wasted.
Well done Rob. Always enjoyed reading your analysis. Nothing wasted. LOL