Statting Island
- Thread starter mlmrob
- Start date
mlmrob
Sire
Thank you Ashlene 
BOW SCHOOL 3.30 PERTH
Though he is 12 years old now, Bow School has only run 28 times. His record on good to soft or quicker over 18f-20.5f reads 5-16 with a further 7 placed. So he has his ideal conditions today. He has only run in twelve chases, winning four, and only two since the start of 2012. He was an excellent second to Dancing Art in March 2012 off 117 before running in the Foxhunters at Aintree. Jason Maguire is an interesting booking, just the one ride for the yard, a third last October. Alison Hamilton is a regular on the Northern Point to Point circuit and has only ever had 88 runners under rules in the last 11 years. She had a winner the other day at Hexham.
Hawaii Klass looks like he will be the jolly. In just his sixth chase he looks well handicapped compared to his hurdles form. Both his wins have come on soft ground, 0-5 on good. He is 0-5 in single figure fields. Donald Whillans is without a winner since January 3rd, 0-38.
Gleann Na Ndochais is having his seventh chase, without success so far, and his sole win was over 22.5 furlongs. His record over 20-20.5 furlongs reads 6U466. He is 0-6 in single figure fields.
Eyre Apparent is 0-11 on good or quicker ground. He is 0-10 when returning to the track after a break of 30 days or more. He is 0-6 when carrying 11-7 or more.
Blazin White Face has won twice both over this course and distance. He is 10lbs higher than when winning at this meeting a year ago though just 2lbs higher than his win in July. He should run well.
Quetzal is 0-8 after a break of 60 days or more. He is 0-4 going right handed.
Father Shine has conditions to suit and he should outrun his price. However, he is 3-33 in all National Hunt races. He is 7lbs higher than his last winning mark though the second and third have franked the form. He remains as the sole winner under National Hunt rules for Shaun Harris, 1-94.
Lord Redsgirth has won twice round here and will probably handle the quicker conditions. He has just his third start for his new trainer. However, Lucy Normile is on a losing run of 50 stretching back to November.
Conclusion: With the exception of Gleann Na Ndochais most of these like to race prominently and it should be set up for a closer. Bow School can race prominently or be held up and the booking of Jason Maguire suggests the yard fancy their chances. He is taken to continue Alison Hamilton’s run of fine form.
BILLY MAGERN 6.40 LUDLOW
Billy Magern has been taking on much better horses than these and his third to Triolo Dalene and Junior looks particularly strong form in the context of this race. Even better was his fifth to Quentin Collognes in the Grimethorpe Chase as that horse went on to win the Bet 365 Chase off 8lbs higher. All nine of Billie Magerns wins have come on good or faster ground. His last win was in October 2011 and the fact he is only 3lbs lower shows how consistent the horse has been and the fact he has only been single figure odds once in that time suggests he has been tilting at windmills. He is visored for the first time today, two of the last six runners from NTD have won in first time headgear.
Gambo has had four chases and is very unexposed in this sphere. However, he is 5lbs higher than his sole chase win and this is tougher, 123 av or to 115. He is 0-4 going right handed and 0-5 over distances beyond 21.5f.
Sun Tzu is 0-5 when returning to the track after a break of 60 days or more. He is 8lbs higher than his last winning mark and is 0-8 off marks above.
Point Blank has won after a break before and is 8lbs higher than his sole chase start. Both his wins have come on good to firm and he has been well beaten in his four races on good. O Neill is 7-55 in handicap chases at Ludlow but has never had a horse placed from five runners over this distance It may well be that Point Blank is ground dependent or is fragile. He should run well.
Giorgios Quiricos is 5-7 going right handed but is 0-5 over distances beyond 21f. He was 29.5ls behind Billie Magern last time and even with the turnaround in weights, it is difficult to see him turning the tables. He is 0-8 in handicaps.
Basoda is 0-6 in class 3 and 0-6 in races with 8 or less runners with just one place. He is just 1lb higher than his last winning mark. Bailey is 4-21 with his handicap chases here and he is in form.
Prophete De Guye is 5lbs higher than his win at Market Rasen in November. He has never won off a mark higher than 120, 0-7.
Rockiteer is 3lbs higher than his last win back in November 2011. He could be feasibly handicapped as Henry Daly has just turned the corner and all his wins have come on good or quicker ground. However, his record beyond 24 furlongs is poor. P6P5 from just four races. He was beaten 45ls in this last year off 126 and 40ls in 2011 off 119.
Conclusion: Nigel Twiston Davies won this race in 2009 with a horse that had a similar profile to Billie Magern. Billie should find this company much easier to handle. There are a few that like to race prominently and he can stalk those before making his move.
GOLDREAM 1.45 YORK (Each Way)
Goldream’s form since he was gelded in the spring of last year has been very consistent. 3123138. The eighth was his seasonal debut which he has needed in the past. He is sure to strip fitter today and he could run well at a nice price.
BOW SCHOOL 3.30 PERTH
Though he is 12 years old now, Bow School has only run 28 times. His record on good to soft or quicker over 18f-20.5f reads 5-16 with a further 7 placed. So he has his ideal conditions today. He has only run in twelve chases, winning four, and only two since the start of 2012. He was an excellent second to Dancing Art in March 2012 off 117 before running in the Foxhunters at Aintree. Jason Maguire is an interesting booking, just the one ride for the yard, a third last October. Alison Hamilton is a regular on the Northern Point to Point circuit and has only ever had 88 runners under rules in the last 11 years. She had a winner the other day at Hexham.
Hawaii Klass looks like he will be the jolly. In just his sixth chase he looks well handicapped compared to his hurdles form. Both his wins have come on soft ground, 0-5 on good. He is 0-5 in single figure fields. Donald Whillans is without a winner since January 3rd, 0-38.
Gleann Na Ndochais is having his seventh chase, without success so far, and his sole win was over 22.5 furlongs. His record over 20-20.5 furlongs reads 6U466. He is 0-6 in single figure fields.
Eyre Apparent is 0-11 on good or quicker ground. He is 0-10 when returning to the track after a break of 30 days or more. He is 0-6 when carrying 11-7 or more.
Blazin White Face has won twice both over this course and distance. He is 10lbs higher than when winning at this meeting a year ago though just 2lbs higher than his win in July. He should run well.
Quetzal is 0-8 after a break of 60 days or more. He is 0-4 going right handed.
Father Shine has conditions to suit and he should outrun his price. However, he is 3-33 in all National Hunt races. He is 7lbs higher than his last winning mark though the second and third have franked the form. He remains as the sole winner under National Hunt rules for Shaun Harris, 1-94.
Lord Redsgirth has won twice round here and will probably handle the quicker conditions. He has just his third start for his new trainer. However, Lucy Normile is on a losing run of 50 stretching back to November.
Conclusion: With the exception of Gleann Na Ndochais most of these like to race prominently and it should be set up for a closer. Bow School can race prominently or be held up and the booking of Jason Maguire suggests the yard fancy their chances. He is taken to continue Alison Hamilton’s run of fine form.
BILLY MAGERN 6.40 LUDLOW
Billy Magern has been taking on much better horses than these and his third to Triolo Dalene and Junior looks particularly strong form in the context of this race. Even better was his fifth to Quentin Collognes in the Grimethorpe Chase as that horse went on to win the Bet 365 Chase off 8lbs higher. All nine of Billie Magerns wins have come on good or faster ground. His last win was in October 2011 and the fact he is only 3lbs lower shows how consistent the horse has been and the fact he has only been single figure odds once in that time suggests he has been tilting at windmills. He is visored for the first time today, two of the last six runners from NTD have won in first time headgear.
Gambo has had four chases and is very unexposed in this sphere. However, he is 5lbs higher than his sole chase win and this is tougher, 123 av or to 115. He is 0-4 going right handed and 0-5 over distances beyond 21.5f.
Sun Tzu is 0-5 when returning to the track after a break of 60 days or more. He is 8lbs higher than his last winning mark and is 0-8 off marks above.
Point Blank has won after a break before and is 8lbs higher than his sole chase start. Both his wins have come on good to firm and he has been well beaten in his four races on good. O Neill is 7-55 in handicap chases at Ludlow but has never had a horse placed from five runners over this distance It may well be that Point Blank is ground dependent or is fragile. He should run well.
Giorgios Quiricos is 5-7 going right handed but is 0-5 over distances beyond 21f. He was 29.5ls behind Billie Magern last time and even with the turnaround in weights, it is difficult to see him turning the tables. He is 0-8 in handicaps.
Basoda is 0-6 in class 3 and 0-6 in races with 8 or less runners with just one place. He is just 1lb higher than his last winning mark. Bailey is 4-21 with his handicap chases here and he is in form.
Prophete De Guye is 5lbs higher than his win at Market Rasen in November. He has never won off a mark higher than 120, 0-7.
Rockiteer is 3lbs higher than his last win back in November 2011. He could be feasibly handicapped as Henry Daly has just turned the corner and all his wins have come on good or quicker ground. However, his record beyond 24 furlongs is poor. P6P5 from just four races. He was beaten 45ls in this last year off 126 and 40ls in 2011 off 119.
Conclusion: Nigel Twiston Davies won this race in 2009 with a horse that had a similar profile to Billie Magern. Billie should find this company much easier to handle. There are a few that like to race prominently and he can stalk those before making his move.
GOLDREAM 1.45 YORK (Each Way)
Goldream’s form since he was gelded in the spring of last year has been very consistent. 3123138. The eighth was his seasonal debut which he has needed in the past. He is sure to strip fitter today and he could run well at a nice price.
mlmrob
Sire
Cheers Pika.
NATIVE GALLERY 7.05 AINTREE
Native Gallery is 7lbs higher for a repeat win in this race but only has to carry 4lbs more physical weight. There is no doubt he has improved over the last 12 months and his third at the Punchestown Festival in a grade 2 last time is very good form. He has ideal conditions and is 2-3 at Aintree, 3-6 with Daryl Jacob and handles the ground. His record in fields of 12 or more runners is impressive; 121103 from 6 races. 2-3 when Jacob rides. He only made his seasonal debut in April and it looks like that this has been his target.
Bar De Ligne unplaced twice in class 2 from two races and 0-4 in fields of 16 or more runners. 0-3 on good ground. Cheekpieces had a profound effect on him last time but he is up in the weights and class. This is his last race as a hurdler as he goes chasing in the autumn.
Party Rock is 26lbs higher than his win at Newcastle in March. Clearly improving but is 0-3 on flat tracks. The handicapper has shoved another 6lbs on his back for his win last time so he will have to improve again.
Arctic Court 0-8 in class 2 and 0-3 on good ground. 0-12 off marks above 120. He beat Scotswell last time though to many, certainly on Betfair, he was beaten. He has got an 8lbs penalty for that and he is up in grade.
Trucking Along is 12lbs higher than his win and has never raced higher than class 3.
Cockney Trucker is 0-12 in class 2 and 0-9 in fields of 16 or more runners. Regular gets placed but has only ever won one hurdle race, 1-26.
Snap Tie is the second Hobbs runner and has never raced beyond 17 furlongs. All five of his wins have come after a break of 120 days or more. 0-8 when returning before.
Drum Valley was well beaten in his only race in class 2. Both his wins have come when returning inside a fortnight. He gave Party Rocks 3lbs and was beaten 6ls at Cheltenham in April. He is 6lbs plus a 7lbs claim better off tonight so he should bet that horse. He should run well.
Decoy has won after a break but he is 0-5 in class 2.
Kians Delight is 0-5 over distances beyond 17f. All 7 of his wins have come when returning inside a month.
Now This Is It could run well as he has conditions to suit but he is 0-4 in fields of 16 or more runners and he is 0-8 in races higher than class 3.
Vendor is 0-4 in races higher than class 3 and 0-3 in races with 8 or more runners. He hasn’t completed in two races over this distance.
Bourne has conditions to suit and is 3-6 on flat tracks. He is still 6lbs higher than his last win in a class 3 and 13lbs higher than when he won a class 2 last year he was tailed off last time behind Party Rock.
Saphir River has never placed in five outings on good to soft or quicker. This is easier company than he’s been keeping of late but he is 0-7 over hurdles.
Smalib Monterg is 0-6 in fields of 16 or more runners. He is still 3lbs higher than his last win. He is yet to place in three races over 20f-20.5f.
One Term has a superb record when returning to the tack after a break of 90 days or more; 1113 from four races. He was sixth on his only outing in this grade and is 0-3 in three races over 20f-20.5f. He could run well here at a big price.
I Hear A Symphony is 0-11 after a break of 60 days or more. He is 4lbs wrong at the weights.
Conclusion: This is not as competitive as the numbers suggest and Native Gallery looks as if he has been primed to run a big race here.
SENAFE 3.15 YORK (Each Way)
Senafe bumped into Zurigha last time and being beaten 1.75ls by the filly who went onto finish fourth in the French 1000gns has subsequently proved what an impossible task that was. Zurigha holds an entry in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. She meets other unexposed types here but only two hold an entry in the Coronation, Orpha and Pearl Sea. Orpha was 9ls behind Sky Lantern in the Moyglare Stud and Pearl Sea was fifth in the Lowther. Pavlosk is the likely jolly and she won impressively on the eye last time but she flashed her tail in the closing stages and she doesn’t hold any fancy entries. Her speed figure of 39 is poor. Hows Life steps up in grade massively and will have to step up on her speed figure of 56.
Conclusion; Senafe will handle the ground and has a speed figure of 72 on heavy ground. She likes to lead she may well not come back here and she rates a very good each way bet.
NATIVE GALLERY 7.05 AINTREE
Native Gallery is 7lbs higher for a repeat win in this race but only has to carry 4lbs more physical weight. There is no doubt he has improved over the last 12 months and his third at the Punchestown Festival in a grade 2 last time is very good form. He has ideal conditions and is 2-3 at Aintree, 3-6 with Daryl Jacob and handles the ground. His record in fields of 12 or more runners is impressive; 121103 from 6 races. 2-3 when Jacob rides. He only made his seasonal debut in April and it looks like that this has been his target.
Bar De Ligne unplaced twice in class 2 from two races and 0-4 in fields of 16 or more runners. 0-3 on good ground. Cheekpieces had a profound effect on him last time but he is up in the weights and class. This is his last race as a hurdler as he goes chasing in the autumn.
Party Rock is 26lbs higher than his win at Newcastle in March. Clearly improving but is 0-3 on flat tracks. The handicapper has shoved another 6lbs on his back for his win last time so he will have to improve again.
Arctic Court 0-8 in class 2 and 0-3 on good ground. 0-12 off marks above 120. He beat Scotswell last time though to many, certainly on Betfair, he was beaten. He has got an 8lbs penalty for that and he is up in grade.
Trucking Along is 12lbs higher than his win and has never raced higher than class 3.
Cockney Trucker is 0-12 in class 2 and 0-9 in fields of 16 or more runners. Regular gets placed but has only ever won one hurdle race, 1-26.
Snap Tie is the second Hobbs runner and has never raced beyond 17 furlongs. All five of his wins have come after a break of 120 days or more. 0-8 when returning before.
Drum Valley was well beaten in his only race in class 2. Both his wins have come when returning inside a fortnight. He gave Party Rocks 3lbs and was beaten 6ls at Cheltenham in April. He is 6lbs plus a 7lbs claim better off tonight so he should bet that horse. He should run well.
Decoy has won after a break but he is 0-5 in class 2.
Kians Delight is 0-5 over distances beyond 17f. All 7 of his wins have come when returning inside a month.
Now This Is It could run well as he has conditions to suit but he is 0-4 in fields of 16 or more runners and he is 0-8 in races higher than class 3.
Vendor is 0-4 in races higher than class 3 and 0-3 in races with 8 or more runners. He hasn’t completed in two races over this distance.
Bourne has conditions to suit and is 3-6 on flat tracks. He is still 6lbs higher than his last win in a class 3 and 13lbs higher than when he won a class 2 last year he was tailed off last time behind Party Rock.
Saphir River has never placed in five outings on good to soft or quicker. This is easier company than he’s been keeping of late but he is 0-7 over hurdles.
Smalib Monterg is 0-6 in fields of 16 or more runners. He is still 3lbs higher than his last win. He is yet to place in three races over 20f-20.5f.
One Term has a superb record when returning to the tack after a break of 90 days or more; 1113 from four races. He was sixth on his only outing in this grade and is 0-3 in three races over 20f-20.5f. He could run well here at a big price.
I Hear A Symphony is 0-11 after a break of 60 days or more. He is 4lbs wrong at the weights.
Conclusion: This is not as competitive as the numbers suggest and Native Gallery looks as if he has been primed to run a big race here.
SENAFE 3.15 YORK (Each Way)
Senafe bumped into Zurigha last time and being beaten 1.75ls by the filly who went onto finish fourth in the French 1000gns has subsequently proved what an impossible task that was. Zurigha holds an entry in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. She meets other unexposed types here but only two hold an entry in the Coronation, Orpha and Pearl Sea. Orpha was 9ls behind Sky Lantern in the Moyglare Stud and Pearl Sea was fifth in the Lowther. Pavlosk is the likely jolly and she won impressively on the eye last time but she flashed her tail in the closing stages and she doesn’t hold any fancy entries. Her speed figure of 39 is poor. Hows Life steps up in grade massively and will have to step up on her speed figure of 56.
Conclusion; Senafe will handle the ground and has a speed figure of 72 on heavy ground. She likes to lead she may well not come back here and she rates a very good each way bet.
mlmrob
Sire
SCOGLIO 4.15 BANGOR
Scoglio has found jumping hurdles his forte and he is improving with each run. He was second in a better race than this the other day off this mark. He just got run out of it and the drop back to 17f on an easier track is exactly what he needs. Conditions will suit.
Rime Avec Gentil won the other day off 100 in a similar race and is now 7lbs higher. He is 20lbs higher than last September. He should run well but the handicapper probably has him now.
Gud Day is 1-20 under National Hunt rules and 0-10 in class 4. He has never placed in four races when returning after a break of 60 days or more.
Smadniyum has been running in better races without showing any sign of form. Dropped in class and in the weights, it would be no surprise to see him improve. However, he has to carry 11-12, unplaced in his only run carrying over 11-0 in a handicap. The yard won the race last year but I can’t have any confidence in the horse.
Humbel Ben has conditions to suit and has won after a break before. This is his first hurdle race for 30 months. He is 7lbs lower than his last win over hurdles back in 2010 but is 6lbs higher than his chase mark after his win here in August. He is 0-9 over 16/17f. Alan Jones is 0-12 in hurdle races at Bangor.
Early Applause was a long way behind Scoglio at Ludlow and is yet to get off the mark in hurdle races. He appears not to like small fields as his record in races with 7 or less runners reads 676.
Conclusion: There isn’t a lot of pace on here and Smadynium looks the most likely pace setter. Scoglio can be held up or stalk so he will be suited whatever way this pans out. He looks a decent bet to return to the winners enclosure.
Scoglio has found jumping hurdles his forte and he is improving with each run. He was second in a better race than this the other day off this mark. He just got run out of it and the drop back to 17f on an easier track is exactly what he needs. Conditions will suit.
Rime Avec Gentil won the other day off 100 in a similar race and is now 7lbs higher. He is 20lbs higher than last September. He should run well but the handicapper probably has him now.
Gud Day is 1-20 under National Hunt rules and 0-10 in class 4. He has never placed in four races when returning after a break of 60 days or more.
Smadniyum has been running in better races without showing any sign of form. Dropped in class and in the weights, it would be no surprise to see him improve. However, he has to carry 11-12, unplaced in his only run carrying over 11-0 in a handicap. The yard won the race last year but I can’t have any confidence in the horse.
Humbel Ben has conditions to suit and has won after a break before. This is his first hurdle race for 30 months. He is 7lbs lower than his last win over hurdles back in 2010 but is 6lbs higher than his chase mark after his win here in August. He is 0-9 over 16/17f. Alan Jones is 0-12 in hurdle races at Bangor.
Early Applause was a long way behind Scoglio at Ludlow and is yet to get off the mark in hurdle races. He appears not to like small fields as his record in races with 7 or less runners reads 676.
Conclusion: There isn’t a lot of pace on here and Smadynium looks the most likely pace setter. Scoglio can be held up or stalk so he will be suited whatever way this pans out. He looks a decent bet to return to the winners enclosure.
mlmrob
Sire
AEGAEUS 4.10 RIPON
Aegaeus was probably a little unlucky on his seasonal debut. He was struck on the head with a whip whilst making his move. The form of his maiden win though is very strong. The second horse has subsequently won four, the latest off 83. The third and fourth have also won since. Ed Dunlop does well at Ripon especially in handicaps, 7-28, 2-3 in 2012. Graham Lee is 13-41 for the trainer.
Amaze has a win and a third on this track to his name. He is 2-3 over 10 furlongs. He drops in class today and is only 2lbs above his last winning mark. However, his record carrying 9-5 or higher in a handicap is 0-2 both unplaced. Ellison’s record in handicaps at Ripon reads 4-67 and in the last five years he has had just the one winner from 30 runners.
Clon Brulee has won after a break before and is 2-4 under Graham Gibbons. He has just had two races in class 4 and unplaced in them both with both his wins coming in class 5. He has also unplaced twice from two runs going right handed. He is 8lbs higher than his win in a class 5.
Tetbury looks sure to improve on both his maiden races. O Meara has an excellent record with horses making their debut in a handicap, 10-69, 3 of his last 5 runners have won. His record of 15-73 in handicaps at this track is decent. Tetbury just had reasonable maiden form in France and Khalid Abdulla clearly saw no reason to keep him and he was sold for 17K. I am pretty sure O Meara will find a race for him but this looks tough for him off 76.
Assizes drops in class but he has only ever won one race, his debut. That was on fast ground and his record on good to soft or slower reads 0-5. He is 0-3 over 10 furlongs.
Satanic Beat is well handicapped on his win over 8 furlongs here last season. He will handle the underfoot conditions. He has never placed in four races beyond a mile.
Gala Casino Star has visited Ripon six times and lost them all. He generally gives his running but he is 0-10 when carrying 9-5 or more.
Colincas Lad is 0-5 when returning to the track after a break of 120 days or more. He is 0-5 in class 4 and 0-14 going right handed.
Demolition has his ideal conditions and is 5lbs lower than his last winning mark. He is 0-9 for Noel Wilson since he returned to him from Fahey and it is 18 months since he tasted success. Wilson is 3-36 in handicaps at Ripon and his last winner was this horse in 2008, 22 losers since.
Merchant Of Medici is 0-7 over distances beyond a mile and 0-4 on good to soft or soft. He is 0-7 when returning after a break of 30 days or more.
Conclusion: There is a fly in the ointment here in the shape of Tetbury. However, he is by Giants Causeway whose record of 5-113 with maidens making their debut in a handicap makes him easy to passover. Aegaeus is bred in the purple and his dam has a 100% record with her offspring at Ripon, 2-2. Colincas Lad looks sure to lead and possibly Assizes may well try to lead too. Aegaeus is likely to stalk the pace and make his move between 1-2f pole. He should take this before going on to win in better grade.
Aegaeus was probably a little unlucky on his seasonal debut. He was struck on the head with a whip whilst making his move. The form of his maiden win though is very strong. The second horse has subsequently won four, the latest off 83. The third and fourth have also won since. Ed Dunlop does well at Ripon especially in handicaps, 7-28, 2-3 in 2012. Graham Lee is 13-41 for the trainer.
Amaze has a win and a third on this track to his name. He is 2-3 over 10 furlongs. He drops in class today and is only 2lbs above his last winning mark. However, his record carrying 9-5 or higher in a handicap is 0-2 both unplaced. Ellison’s record in handicaps at Ripon reads 4-67 and in the last five years he has had just the one winner from 30 runners.
Clon Brulee has won after a break before and is 2-4 under Graham Gibbons. He has just had two races in class 4 and unplaced in them both with both his wins coming in class 5. He has also unplaced twice from two runs going right handed. He is 8lbs higher than his win in a class 5.
Tetbury looks sure to improve on both his maiden races. O Meara has an excellent record with horses making their debut in a handicap, 10-69, 3 of his last 5 runners have won. His record of 15-73 in handicaps at this track is decent. Tetbury just had reasonable maiden form in France and Khalid Abdulla clearly saw no reason to keep him and he was sold for 17K. I am pretty sure O Meara will find a race for him but this looks tough for him off 76.
Assizes drops in class but he has only ever won one race, his debut. That was on fast ground and his record on good to soft or slower reads 0-5. He is 0-3 over 10 furlongs.
Satanic Beat is well handicapped on his win over 8 furlongs here last season. He will handle the underfoot conditions. He has never placed in four races beyond a mile.
Gala Casino Star has visited Ripon six times and lost them all. He generally gives his running but he is 0-10 when carrying 9-5 or more.
Colincas Lad is 0-5 when returning to the track after a break of 120 days or more. He is 0-5 in class 4 and 0-14 going right handed.
Demolition has his ideal conditions and is 5lbs lower than his last winning mark. He is 0-9 for Noel Wilson since he returned to him from Fahey and it is 18 months since he tasted success. Wilson is 3-36 in handicaps at Ripon and his last winner was this horse in 2008, 22 losers since.
Merchant Of Medici is 0-7 over distances beyond a mile and 0-4 on good to soft or soft. He is 0-7 when returning after a break of 30 days or more.
Conclusion: There is a fly in the ointment here in the shape of Tetbury. However, he is by Giants Causeway whose record of 5-113 with maidens making their debut in a handicap makes him easy to passover. Aegaeus is bred in the purple and his dam has a 100% record with her offspring at Ripon, 2-2. Colincas Lad looks sure to lead and possibly Assizes may well try to lead too. Aegaeus is likely to stalk the pace and make his move between 1-2f pole. He should take this before going on to win in better grade.
mlmrob
Sire
SMALIB MONTERG 3.20 NEWTON ABBOT
Smalib Monterg chased home Party Rock on Friday night in a much better race than this. Average OR 131 to 119 today and off 1lb lower he has to be of interest today. He has won over course and distance and his record in fields of 10 or less when having to jump a hurdle is pretty good. In the last 12 months his record reads; 211213 from just six races. He handles any ground and has won when returning to the track inside 7 days.
Special Account would be his main danger. His last race was the Grade 2 Persian War Hurdle for which he was just 6/1 3rd fav. He is 2-2 here and has conditions to suit. However, this is his first handicap and he has a stiff mark, 131. Jeremy Scott is 3-46 with horses making their debut in a handicap.
Union Saint has improved 21lbs in the last 12 months and is 7lbs higher than his win just four days ago. There are a few negatives in his profile that make him opposable. He has run at Newton Abbot four times and unplaced in them all. He has run over 19f-20f four times and unplaced in them all and he has run on a flat track five times and unplaced in them all.
Kylenoe Fairy is 3-4 at Newton Abbot and Tom O Brien is 2-2 on the mare. She is 5lbs above her last winning mark and she is 0-9 when returning from a break of 30 days or more.
Lava Lamp is 7lbs higher than his last win but 5lbs lower than his win at Ffos Las in March 2012. He has conditions to suit and should run well though he has been unplaced in his last six races that had an average OR of 115+.
Fear Glic won his maiden hurdle off 113 and the handicapper has had his say. He is still 10lbs above that mark and comes from a yard who are without a win since October, 0-16. Fear Glic didn’t place in his two races after returning from a break of 120 days or more.
Nether Stream won two sellers and it is nearly three years since he won a class 3 off 99. Off 113 today, 10lbs higher than his selling hurdle win; he is going to find it tough.
Captain Sharpe is well handicapped; 17lbs lower than his win at Cheltenham in April 2012. He has form figures 212 on this track However; he is 0-8 on good to firm. The closest he has got since that win is a 27.5l fourth of seven.
Conclusion: Dr Newland has acted quickly to get a race into Smalib Monterg before he is reassessed. He is 5-15 with horses returning inside 4 days in handicaps, 2-3 this season. Special Account should run well but his trainer’s record dampens enthusiasm.
Smalib Monterg chased home Party Rock on Friday night in a much better race than this. Average OR 131 to 119 today and off 1lb lower he has to be of interest today. He has won over course and distance and his record in fields of 10 or less when having to jump a hurdle is pretty good. In the last 12 months his record reads; 211213 from just six races. He handles any ground and has won when returning to the track inside 7 days.
Special Account would be his main danger. His last race was the Grade 2 Persian War Hurdle for which he was just 6/1 3rd fav. He is 2-2 here and has conditions to suit. However, this is his first handicap and he has a stiff mark, 131. Jeremy Scott is 3-46 with horses making their debut in a handicap.
Union Saint has improved 21lbs in the last 12 months and is 7lbs higher than his win just four days ago. There are a few negatives in his profile that make him opposable. He has run at Newton Abbot four times and unplaced in them all. He has run over 19f-20f four times and unplaced in them all and he has run on a flat track five times and unplaced in them all.
Kylenoe Fairy is 3-4 at Newton Abbot and Tom O Brien is 2-2 on the mare. She is 5lbs above her last winning mark and she is 0-9 when returning from a break of 30 days or more.
Lava Lamp is 7lbs higher than his last win but 5lbs lower than his win at Ffos Las in March 2012. He has conditions to suit and should run well though he has been unplaced in his last six races that had an average OR of 115+.
Fear Glic won his maiden hurdle off 113 and the handicapper has had his say. He is still 10lbs above that mark and comes from a yard who are without a win since October, 0-16. Fear Glic didn’t place in his two races after returning from a break of 120 days or more.
Nether Stream won two sellers and it is nearly three years since he won a class 3 off 99. Off 113 today, 10lbs higher than his selling hurdle win; he is going to find it tough.
Captain Sharpe is well handicapped; 17lbs lower than his win at Cheltenham in April 2012. He has form figures 212 on this track However; he is 0-8 on good to firm. The closest he has got since that win is a 27.5l fourth of seven.
Conclusion: Dr Newland has acted quickly to get a race into Smalib Monterg before he is reassessed. He is 5-15 with horses returning inside 4 days in handicaps, 2-3 this season. Special Account should run well but his trainer’s record dampens enthusiasm.
mlmrob
Sire
BEDLOES ISLAND 4.10 REDCAR
Bedloes Island has followed a similar path to last season when he took this race off 10lbs lower. The only difference this year is that he has fitted in a win at Thirsk. He has a superb record at Redcar, 3-6 but there are ground worries as he has never won on good to soft, 0-4, and all his wins have come on a good or quicker surface.
Last Sovereign finished 2.25ls in front of Bedloes Island a couple of runs back and is 1lb worse off for that. He run in a much better race last time and Franny Norton gave the horse no chance though he was running on at the finish. He is very consistent given the type of races he competes in but he has never won in class 3, 0-6.
Medici Time is still 3lbs higher than his win at Newmarket last August but he has won off higher marks in the past. He usually takes a few runs to get to peak form though he did win first time out three years ago. His second race of the season record is very poor, 6 races, 6 unplaced. He will win this season but when is anyone’s guess.
Jack Luey tends to run his race but he is yet to race at this level and off a career high mark he can be opposed. He is 0-14 on good to soft or quicker so he needs more rain.
Willbeme comes from the yard that won this race last year. She can run well after a break but has never raced on ground as slow as this. She should handle it being Kyllachy but I am not convinced. This is her first attempt at 5 furlongs. Bycroft has just had four runners this season with all four losing.
Rylee Mooch ran well enough the other day but he is 0-7 on good to soft and 0-10 when returning to the track inside 7 days.
Verinco is 0-7 when returning after a break of 60 days or more and 0-4 at Redcar.
Cocktail Charlie is 0-7 in class 3 and 0-12 in the cheekpieces. He is 0-6 on good to soft or slower but has won on good ground.
Partner has shown nothing much for Noel Wilson, 0-8. He is 7lbs lower than his last win in a handicap 12 months ago. Noel Wilson is 3-47 in handicaps at Redcar. The last 19 have lost stretching back to September 2009. He is 0-14 over 5f.
Conclusion: All the runners have niggling doubts about them and Bedloes Island is yet to win on the ground. However, he has run well on good to soft before to suggest he can handle it. This looks like the target race and I’m pretty sure Jack Lumsden, his owner, will want to put one over on former trainer Neville Bycroft.
Bedloes Island has followed a similar path to last season when he took this race off 10lbs lower. The only difference this year is that he has fitted in a win at Thirsk. He has a superb record at Redcar, 3-6 but there are ground worries as he has never won on good to soft, 0-4, and all his wins have come on a good or quicker surface.
Last Sovereign finished 2.25ls in front of Bedloes Island a couple of runs back and is 1lb worse off for that. He run in a much better race last time and Franny Norton gave the horse no chance though he was running on at the finish. He is very consistent given the type of races he competes in but he has never won in class 3, 0-6.
Medici Time is still 3lbs higher than his win at Newmarket last August but he has won off higher marks in the past. He usually takes a few runs to get to peak form though he did win first time out three years ago. His second race of the season record is very poor, 6 races, 6 unplaced. He will win this season but when is anyone’s guess.
Jack Luey tends to run his race but he is yet to race at this level and off a career high mark he can be opposed. He is 0-14 on good to soft or quicker so he needs more rain.
Willbeme comes from the yard that won this race last year. She can run well after a break but has never raced on ground as slow as this. She should handle it being Kyllachy but I am not convinced. This is her first attempt at 5 furlongs. Bycroft has just had four runners this season with all four losing.
Rylee Mooch ran well enough the other day but he is 0-7 on good to soft and 0-10 when returning to the track inside 7 days.
Verinco is 0-7 when returning after a break of 60 days or more and 0-4 at Redcar.
Cocktail Charlie is 0-7 in class 3 and 0-12 in the cheekpieces. He is 0-6 on good to soft or slower but has won on good ground.
Partner has shown nothing much for Noel Wilson, 0-8. He is 7lbs lower than his last win in a handicap 12 months ago. Noel Wilson is 3-47 in handicaps at Redcar. The last 19 have lost stretching back to September 2009. He is 0-14 over 5f.
Conclusion: All the runners have niggling doubts about them and Bedloes Island is yet to win on the ground. However, he has run well on good to soft before to suggest he can handle it. This looks like the target race and I’m pretty sure Jack Lumsden, his owner, will want to put one over on former trainer Neville Bycroft.
mlmrob
Sire
MINALISA 4.30 SOUTHWELL
Minalisa won first time up last season and bumped into Idler in a much better race than this at Newmarket last August. Idler has won three since the latest off 16lbs higher. So trying to give him 7lbs was a tall order. Though she hasn’t run on the surface, she should handle it. She is by Oasis Dream whose progeny do well here and she could prove to be well handicapped today. This race will be run to suit.
Dancheur has one way of running and Elaine Burke’s filly will try and make all. However, there are a few niggling doubts. She is yet to win in this grade, though to be fair she has run well in it and she is 8lbs higher than her last win which was in class 5. The biggest niggle though is she will taken on for the lead.
Spark Of Genius is the other speedster in this and she is yet to race in this grade. She has won over further but she is 8lbs higher than her win in class 6.
Mata Hari Blue has won twice here but is 0-4 in class 4. She is up to a mark of 79 now and she is 0-6 off marks of 71 or higher. She is another who likes to force the pace.
Beau Mistral is 0-7 on artificial surfaces and 0-3 here. She is 0-6 over 6f and 0-10 in class 4.
Camache Queen is another who can race prominently. It’s nearly two years since she won but she is 8lbs lower. Joe Tuite is struggling at present, without a winner for two months, 19 runners.
Conclusion: This should develop into a speed battle up front and if that’s the case Minalisa should be able to pick these off with ease as they tread water in the final furlong.
Minalisa won first time up last season and bumped into Idler in a much better race than this at Newmarket last August. Idler has won three since the latest off 16lbs higher. So trying to give him 7lbs was a tall order. Though she hasn’t run on the surface, she should handle it. She is by Oasis Dream whose progeny do well here and she could prove to be well handicapped today. This race will be run to suit.
Dancheur has one way of running and Elaine Burke’s filly will try and make all. However, there are a few niggling doubts. She is yet to win in this grade, though to be fair she has run well in it and she is 8lbs higher than her last win which was in class 5. The biggest niggle though is she will taken on for the lead.
Spark Of Genius is the other speedster in this and she is yet to race in this grade. She has won over further but she is 8lbs higher than her win in class 6.
Mata Hari Blue has won twice here but is 0-4 in class 4. She is up to a mark of 79 now and she is 0-6 off marks of 71 or higher. She is another who likes to force the pace.
Beau Mistral is 0-7 on artificial surfaces and 0-3 here. She is 0-6 over 6f and 0-10 in class 4.
Camache Queen is another who can race prominently. It’s nearly two years since she won but she is 8lbs lower. Joe Tuite is struggling at present, without a winner for two months, 19 runners.
Conclusion: This should develop into a speed battle up front and if that’s the case Minalisa should be able to pick these off with ease as they tread water in the final furlong.
mlmrob
Sire
MYBOYALFIE 5.30 NEWCASTLE
Myboyalfie is 5-10 on soft or heavy ground, 2-3 over 7 furlongs and has his ground today. He ran well enough last time over 8f in a class 2 but his run before that in another class 2, avor 91, over 7f was an excellent effort off this mark. The race was won by Tartifilette who won again off 5lbs higher and then was beaten 3ls in the Victoria Cup off 10lbs higher. The fourth, Roninski has also since won. The sixth home subsequently placed second in a listed race at York last week. The 14th and 19th home have also won. Myboyalfie has never looked back since application of a visor improving almost 2 stone. Jenkins last runner at Newcastle was 8 years ago so it is interesting that he has come North to find a suitable opportunity.
Sandy Lane is now 34lbs higher than in December. He could well have more improvement in him but he has never raced on soft ground and he was 8th on his only attempt on good to soft.
Well Painted was last in the Victoria Cup on his seasonal debut so he should strip fitter today. He has only won a maiden and it is difficult to make a solid case for him. He could well dot up as he has a speed figure of 91 from last October. Haggas has a 30% strike rate at Newcastle and 4-9 in 7f handicaps.
Kingscroft run well on Saturday to suggest he may well have a win in him off this mark. However, he has never placed in five races when returning to the track inside 5 days.
Amazing Amoray has won after a break before but he is 0-3 never placed on good to soft and has never run on anything slower.
Gouray Girl has disappointed twice off this mark since winning at Doncaster. She is 0-10 when returning to the track inside a fortnight.
Diescentric won on his racecourse debut for Henry Cecil but was well beaten on his two seasonal debuts since, 17ls and 20ls. He was unplaced on his sole run on soft ground.
Xilerator has conditions to suit. He is on a losing run of 10 but he is back on his last winning mark. He can run well at a decent price.
Steel Stockholder is 0-7 on soft ground and 0-2 in class 3.
Chookie Royale is 0-9 on good to soft or slower and 0-2 in class 3.
Sam Nombulist is 3-6 on soft ground but he is 0-8 in fields of 11 or less runners. His three wins have come in 15,16 and 19 runner fields.
Conclusion: Well Painted is far too short for his achievements to date. He flatters to deceive every time he runs and whilst it is feasible he could win this I wouldn’t like to bet on him. Xilerator is a live danger to the selection. He has his conditions and is well handicapped. Dandy Nicholls will have a target for him but when that it is who knows. Myboyalfie can lead and lead at a fair pace. He doesn’t usually need to have no horses around him as he has a high cruising speed so the other front runners in the field will be readily burned off. There are a few closers in the field but this track is difficult to come from behind on when it is riding slow and Myboyalfie looks a decent bet.
PRINCE PIPPIN 7.05 TOWCESTER
Prince Pippin won here last week to take his course record to 2241. He showed improved form and he takes a step up in grade tonight. Whether Lucy Jones has got Prince Pippin back to the form of three years ago when he was third off 128 is debatable but one thing is for sure she will have improved the horse. She has fantastic facilities at Prettyland Farm and she is definitely a trainer to watch in the future. The booking of McCoy further enhances confidence and it is a heck of a long journey to Towcester from Kilgety.
Diamonds Return started his winning run a year ago off 90 and is 24lbs higher now. He struggled on his seasonal debut and should strip fitter now. This is a very stiff 19.5f and he has never won beyond 18f. Pipe won this race last year and the horse will handle the ground.
Bob Lewis is a 14 race maiden and was beaten 4ls by Prince Pippin last week. He is 6lbs better off for that defeat but he has never placed in this grade.
Moyne Nineoseven makes his English debut on only his third hurdle start. However, Noel Quinlan is 3-54 with horses that make their debut for him when arriving from another yard, the last 22 have lost.
Guards Chapel is 0-6 on good or slower and all his wins have come on flat tracks. He has never placed on any track that has a hill of some sort. 0-4.
Thoresby is 0-10 on good or slower ground. He has won round here before but both his wins came after a break of 90 days or more. 0-16 when returning before that.
Around A Pound should have conditions to suit but his two visits here have seen him beat 8ls and 11s off marks lower than todays. Though he has won off 100, he struggles off marks above that, 0-8.
Dashing Doc has conditions to suit but is 0-11 in double figure fields.
Pret A Thou likes a bit of cut as all his wins have come on good to soft or slower, he is 0-9 on good. He is on a losing run of 15 stretching back to February 2011.
Aegean Destiny is 0-7 over distances beyond 16f.
Midnight Lira is 0-11 going right handed and 0-4 off marks above 90.
Crystal Swing is 0-5 on stiff tracks and has never placed in five races with 12 or more runners. He is 0-8 when returning to the track after a break of 30 days or more.
Award Winner has conditions to suit but McCoy has been on board for 8 of his 9 wins and he is on Prince Pippin tonight.
Rigolo Ville has had four races in the UK and unplaced in them all. He did win a bumper in France before having two years off track. He’s difficult to make a case for.
Henry Hurst was third off 105 in a handicap hurdle a year ago but with three incompletions in chases and a 52l defeat in a hurdle it would be a leap of faith to support him.
Conclusion: Though this is a class 4 in the race title there are some very disappointing types in the race. Prince Pippin is heading the right way again and he is taken to defy a penalty especially with McCoy booked.
Myboyalfie is 5-10 on soft or heavy ground, 2-3 over 7 furlongs and has his ground today. He ran well enough last time over 8f in a class 2 but his run before that in another class 2, avor 91, over 7f was an excellent effort off this mark. The race was won by Tartifilette who won again off 5lbs higher and then was beaten 3ls in the Victoria Cup off 10lbs higher. The fourth, Roninski has also since won. The sixth home subsequently placed second in a listed race at York last week. The 14th and 19th home have also won. Myboyalfie has never looked back since application of a visor improving almost 2 stone. Jenkins last runner at Newcastle was 8 years ago so it is interesting that he has come North to find a suitable opportunity.
Sandy Lane is now 34lbs higher than in December. He could well have more improvement in him but he has never raced on soft ground and he was 8th on his only attempt on good to soft.
Well Painted was last in the Victoria Cup on his seasonal debut so he should strip fitter today. He has only won a maiden and it is difficult to make a solid case for him. He could well dot up as he has a speed figure of 91 from last October. Haggas has a 30% strike rate at Newcastle and 4-9 in 7f handicaps.
Kingscroft run well on Saturday to suggest he may well have a win in him off this mark. However, he has never placed in five races when returning to the track inside 5 days.
Amazing Amoray has won after a break before but he is 0-3 never placed on good to soft and has never run on anything slower.
Gouray Girl has disappointed twice off this mark since winning at Doncaster. She is 0-10 when returning to the track inside a fortnight.
Diescentric won on his racecourse debut for Henry Cecil but was well beaten on his two seasonal debuts since, 17ls and 20ls. He was unplaced on his sole run on soft ground.
Xilerator has conditions to suit. He is on a losing run of 10 but he is back on his last winning mark. He can run well at a decent price.
Steel Stockholder is 0-7 on soft ground and 0-2 in class 3.
Chookie Royale is 0-9 on good to soft or slower and 0-2 in class 3.
Sam Nombulist is 3-6 on soft ground but he is 0-8 in fields of 11 or less runners. His three wins have come in 15,16 and 19 runner fields.
Conclusion: Well Painted is far too short for his achievements to date. He flatters to deceive every time he runs and whilst it is feasible he could win this I wouldn’t like to bet on him. Xilerator is a live danger to the selection. He has his conditions and is well handicapped. Dandy Nicholls will have a target for him but when that it is who knows. Myboyalfie can lead and lead at a fair pace. He doesn’t usually need to have no horses around him as he has a high cruising speed so the other front runners in the field will be readily burned off. There are a few closers in the field but this track is difficult to come from behind on when it is riding slow and Myboyalfie looks a decent bet.
PRINCE PIPPIN 7.05 TOWCESTER
Prince Pippin won here last week to take his course record to 2241. He showed improved form and he takes a step up in grade tonight. Whether Lucy Jones has got Prince Pippin back to the form of three years ago when he was third off 128 is debatable but one thing is for sure she will have improved the horse. She has fantastic facilities at Prettyland Farm and she is definitely a trainer to watch in the future. The booking of McCoy further enhances confidence and it is a heck of a long journey to Towcester from Kilgety.
Diamonds Return started his winning run a year ago off 90 and is 24lbs higher now. He struggled on his seasonal debut and should strip fitter now. This is a very stiff 19.5f and he has never won beyond 18f. Pipe won this race last year and the horse will handle the ground.
Bob Lewis is a 14 race maiden and was beaten 4ls by Prince Pippin last week. He is 6lbs better off for that defeat but he has never placed in this grade.
Moyne Nineoseven makes his English debut on only his third hurdle start. However, Noel Quinlan is 3-54 with horses that make their debut for him when arriving from another yard, the last 22 have lost.
Guards Chapel is 0-6 on good or slower and all his wins have come on flat tracks. He has never placed on any track that has a hill of some sort. 0-4.
Thoresby is 0-10 on good or slower ground. He has won round here before but both his wins came after a break of 90 days or more. 0-16 when returning before that.
Around A Pound should have conditions to suit but his two visits here have seen him beat 8ls and 11s off marks lower than todays. Though he has won off 100, he struggles off marks above that, 0-8.
Dashing Doc has conditions to suit but is 0-11 in double figure fields.
Pret A Thou likes a bit of cut as all his wins have come on good to soft or slower, he is 0-9 on good. He is on a losing run of 15 stretching back to February 2011.
Aegean Destiny is 0-7 over distances beyond 16f.
Midnight Lira is 0-11 going right handed and 0-4 off marks above 90.
Crystal Swing is 0-5 on stiff tracks and has never placed in five races with 12 or more runners. He is 0-8 when returning to the track after a break of 30 days or more.
Award Winner has conditions to suit but McCoy has been on board for 8 of his 9 wins and he is on Prince Pippin tonight.
Rigolo Ville has had four races in the UK and unplaced in them all. He did win a bumper in France before having two years off track. He’s difficult to make a case for.
Henry Hurst was third off 105 in a handicap hurdle a year ago but with three incompletions in chases and a 52l defeat in a hurdle it would be a leap of faith to support him.
Conclusion: Though this is a class 4 in the race title there are some very disappointing types in the race. Prince Pippin is heading the right way again and he is taken to defy a penalty especially with McCoy booked.