Statting Island
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mlmrob
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GEORGE GURU 3.10 GOODWOOD
George Guru could be well handicapped here. He has won off 91 and placed off 94 on the all weather. He won over course and distance last time off 87 and he may well have enough in hand to win this off 92. He has only once been out of the frame when priced at 5/1 or less and Jamie Spencer is 2-5 for this yard over the last four years. Conditions are ideal.
The Confessor was just under 2ls behind George Guru and is 5lbs better off today. However, that run made him 0-11 in class 2.
Chandelry won the Vintage Stakes as a 2yo and that form alone would put him clear of this lot. However, he broke his pelvis year and whether he is as good is debatable. His main target is the Wokingham and this is just a prep race for that.
Silverheels won on his racecourse debut and has been beaten in all 15 races in the UK since. However, he has won in France at Chantilly and placed at Deauville. He has never placed in three races in class 2; he is 0-10 over 7f and has been unplaced three times from three races at Goodwood. He is 7lbs better off with George Guru for a 6l beaten last time.
Head Of Steam has never placed in six races on turf. He has run at this track three times. He won on the all weather off a mark of 85 in a class 4. He plugged on to get within 6.5ls of George Guru last time and is 8lbs better off.
Common Touch makes his debut for Willie Musson. Musson is 0-52 with horses making their debut for him after arriving from another yard.
Field Of Dream won a heritage handicap off 99 last season so he is heading back towards that mark. However, he has never placed in a handicap when he has to carry 9-6 or more, 6 races.
Noble Citizen hasn’t won for two years and is still 1lb above that mark. He is sure to pop up again soon but his record of 1-27 in class 2 makes him opposable for win purposes. However, he finished second in this race last year off 90 and has finished second on both his visits to Goodwood. He has a terrible draw.
Radio Gaga won a listed race off 98 last summer and races off 95 here. She should run well.
Bronze Prince is Michael Attwater’s second entry and he looks the likely pacemaker for George Guru.
Conclusion: With Bronze Prince declared, Attwater has made sure that this will be truly run. That should set the race up for George Guru who may still have a bit more in the locker despite being worse off at the weights with some of these. Both Noble Citizen and Radio Gaga may run well at a price.
JUNIOR 4.30 WETHERBY
Junior is a class act and his record in class 2 chases is excellent, 212, from just three races. He was second to Triolo Dalene last time and the third Billie Magern has already franked the form by winning. His record outside of graded company in chases on good or good to soft reads 6 races with 3 wins and 3 placed. That improves to 3-5 when racing over 23.5f or more.
Garleton won this last year but it only had an average or of 124, 136 this year. So even though he is 1lb lower he has a tougher task. He likes to lead but with Alfie Spinner and O Crotaigh in the field he will not get his own way. He is 0-11 in chases with an average OR of 125-136.
De Boitron will be well fancied now that Ferdy Murphy has ironed out the problem in the yard. However, he is 0-6 when returning to the track inside a fortnight and 0-14 off marks above 130, 0-7 off marks 130-136.
Alfie Spinner is 0-12 on good or good to soft ground and is 0-4 in class 2 chases. He was 2.5ls behind Bobs Worth in a novice chase last season and a return to that form would see him on the premises. However, he is 0-4 after returning to the track after a break of 90 days or more.
Lost Glory has been given time to recover from his exertions in the Grand National. He is 4lbs higher than his last win and has conditions to suit. McCoy is 7-14 on him and he is 4-8 in the tongue tie. However, though the horse should run well he is passed over as Jonjo O Neill is 4-48 in handicap chases at Wetherby and he is 0-19 with horses that had their last run in the Grand National.
Pigeon Island won a veterans chase off 127 but he is 0-11 off marks above 130 in chases.
Rolecarr will find this difficult though he has only had two races in a race with an average or of 128 or more. He didn’t place in either. Three of his four chases wins have been at Kelso and he is 1-16 on good or good to soft ground, 0-7 in chases.
O Croataigh is 9lbs out of the handicap and out of his depth. He is 0-20 in class 3 and has never run in class 2.
Conclusion: O Croataigh is clearly here for a day out and he is going to try and lead this lot. With Alfie Spinner and Garleton both liking to make the running it may well be quite quick for a 25f chase. Junior is another who can lead but he is not dependent on doing so. There are enough negatives amongst the field to suggest that today is the day for Junior. I would expect Lost Glory to run well but O Neill’s record with his National horses on their next run is appalling.
George Guru could be well handicapped here. He has won off 91 and placed off 94 on the all weather. He won over course and distance last time off 87 and he may well have enough in hand to win this off 92. He has only once been out of the frame when priced at 5/1 or less and Jamie Spencer is 2-5 for this yard over the last four years. Conditions are ideal.
The Confessor was just under 2ls behind George Guru and is 5lbs better off today. However, that run made him 0-11 in class 2.
Chandelry won the Vintage Stakes as a 2yo and that form alone would put him clear of this lot. However, he broke his pelvis year and whether he is as good is debatable. His main target is the Wokingham and this is just a prep race for that.
Silverheels won on his racecourse debut and has been beaten in all 15 races in the UK since. However, he has won in France at Chantilly and placed at Deauville. He has never placed in three races in class 2; he is 0-10 over 7f and has been unplaced three times from three races at Goodwood. He is 7lbs better off with George Guru for a 6l beaten last time.
Head Of Steam has never placed in six races on turf. He has run at this track three times. He won on the all weather off a mark of 85 in a class 4. He plugged on to get within 6.5ls of George Guru last time and is 8lbs better off.
Common Touch makes his debut for Willie Musson. Musson is 0-52 with horses making their debut for him after arriving from another yard.
Field Of Dream won a heritage handicap off 99 last season so he is heading back towards that mark. However, he has never placed in a handicap when he has to carry 9-6 or more, 6 races.
Noble Citizen hasn’t won for two years and is still 1lb above that mark. He is sure to pop up again soon but his record of 1-27 in class 2 makes him opposable for win purposes. However, he finished second in this race last year off 90 and has finished second on both his visits to Goodwood. He has a terrible draw.
Radio Gaga won a listed race off 98 last summer and races off 95 here. She should run well.
Bronze Prince is Michael Attwater’s second entry and he looks the likely pacemaker for George Guru.
Conclusion: With Bronze Prince declared, Attwater has made sure that this will be truly run. That should set the race up for George Guru who may still have a bit more in the locker despite being worse off at the weights with some of these. Both Noble Citizen and Radio Gaga may run well at a price.
JUNIOR 4.30 WETHERBY
Junior is a class act and his record in class 2 chases is excellent, 212, from just three races. He was second to Triolo Dalene last time and the third Billie Magern has already franked the form by winning. His record outside of graded company in chases on good or good to soft reads 6 races with 3 wins and 3 placed. That improves to 3-5 when racing over 23.5f or more.
Garleton won this last year but it only had an average or of 124, 136 this year. So even though he is 1lb lower he has a tougher task. He likes to lead but with Alfie Spinner and O Crotaigh in the field he will not get his own way. He is 0-11 in chases with an average OR of 125-136.
De Boitron will be well fancied now that Ferdy Murphy has ironed out the problem in the yard. However, he is 0-6 when returning to the track inside a fortnight and 0-14 off marks above 130, 0-7 off marks 130-136.
Alfie Spinner is 0-12 on good or good to soft ground and is 0-4 in class 2 chases. He was 2.5ls behind Bobs Worth in a novice chase last season and a return to that form would see him on the premises. However, he is 0-4 after returning to the track after a break of 90 days or more.
Lost Glory has been given time to recover from his exertions in the Grand National. He is 4lbs higher than his last win and has conditions to suit. McCoy is 7-14 on him and he is 4-8 in the tongue tie. However, though the horse should run well he is passed over as Jonjo O Neill is 4-48 in handicap chases at Wetherby and he is 0-19 with horses that had their last run in the Grand National.
Pigeon Island won a veterans chase off 127 but he is 0-11 off marks above 130 in chases.
Rolecarr will find this difficult though he has only had two races in a race with an average or of 128 or more. He didn’t place in either. Three of his four chases wins have been at Kelso and he is 1-16 on good or good to soft ground, 0-7 in chases.
O Croataigh is 9lbs out of the handicap and out of his depth. He is 0-20 in class 3 and has never run in class 2.
Conclusion: O Croataigh is clearly here for a day out and he is going to try and lead this lot. With Alfie Spinner and Garleton both liking to make the running it may well be quite quick for a 25f chase. Junior is another who can lead but he is not dependent on doing so. There are enough negatives amongst the field to suggest that today is the day for Junior. I would expect Lost Glory to run well but O Neill’s record with his National horses on their next run is appalling.
mlmrob
Sire
MYSTERIOUS MAN 3.40 CHESTER
Mysterious Man led at this distance last time when beaten a short head by Sun Central at Salisbury. He ended last season in the UK with an excellent fourth in the Melrose Stakes, 5.75ls behind Guarantee who has subsequently been competing in Group races including the St Leger. Second was Biographer who subsequently won a listed race off 4lbs higher. Andrew Balding does well at Chester and since last August 6 of his 14 runners have won. However, he has interesting record when his horses are drawn in stalls 1-3. In the last 10 years he has had 14 runners drawn in stalls 1-3 and 5 have won. That improves to 5-8 when they are running in the same or lower class as they did on their last run. Only one has failed to place. Mysterious Man has conditions to suit.
Hallstatt has won his last two and steps up in grade. He has only run in class 3 twice, both unplaced, but he does have his conditions today. He was fourth in this race three years ago off 75 but he has never run well off marks beyond 70. He clearly is thriving at present and so are the yard but they have yet to break their duck at Chester. Mackie is 0-18 here.
Harvard N Yale stayed on last time over 12 furlongs to suggest the step up to 14f would suit. It is two years since he won though he is lightly raced and has been running in better races. Noseda only had two runners at this track last year and both won and his record of 4-14 over the last ten years suggests it is not a track he likes to visit much. He is by Smart Strike whose progeny do well in staying races and Harvard N Yale should run well.
Gabriel’s King showed his first form on turf on his initial run for David Simcock and the good doctor’s horse is sure to be spot on at his favourite track. However, this is a big jump in class and he is 0-9 in class 4 or better. However, Gabriel’s King is the only winner this yard has had in the last fortnight from 25 runners and Simcock’s record of 2-49 in handicaps at Chester is not inspiring.
Kuda Huraa was made second favourite for a similar event to this last time and didn’t run well off this mark. That took his record to 0-5 on turf. His recent second over 12f at Epsom is okay but he clearly doesn’t stay any further on the flat. Beaten 21ls and 11ls in his two runs beyond that distance. He is 8lbs above his last winning mark and his record off marks 81-88 reads 0-4.
Kiwayu is 0-5 on the turf with just one place. Luca Cumani managed to get a win out of him at Lingfield off 69 and the handicapper had his say and hiked him 12lbs. He is up in grade. Ian Williams is 7-65 in handicaps round here but I feel the horse is too high in the handicap.
The Fun Crusher hasn’t done much since his racecourse debut over 12f which he won. He was tried over 16f last time and didn’t stay so the drop back in distance should suit. Tim Easterby’s record in handicaps at Chester reads 9-143 but he is 0-19 over distances beyond 10.5f.
Masterful Act has only won on artificial surfaces, 0-7 on turf, and has only run twice in higher grade than class 5 finishing unplaced both times. He is 10lbs higher for winning a class 5 at Southwell.
Kiama Bay has won round Chester but he is 0-10 off marks above 80.
Swinging Hawk is a 16 race maiden in the UK though has won three races in France. The last of those was 4 years ago. He has run well after a break and is Ian Williams second runner in the race but he is 0-8 with maidens in handicaps at Chester.
Conclusion: This looks a two horse race on paper. I’m sure Harvard N Yale will be well prepared for this and Sanders last four rides for Noseda have returned form figures, 2211. However, he passed over in favour of Mysterious Man who was thought good enough to run in a group 2 in France on his final appearance last season. Given his trainers record at the track, he looks the one to be on.
REDVERS 5.30 HAYDOCK
Redvers has been a revelation since Ed Vaughan fitted the blinkers. Eight races have seen him pick up prize money five times which includes one win. He is a regular in a better grade than this and his record when racing round a left hand turn reads 3-7. He has returned the following form figures; 3211153. He was fifth in this race last year off 86, his last race without the blinkers. His running on fourth in the Victoria Cup will have put him spot on for this.
Sandy Lane continues to improve and is up 10lbs for winning a class 4 last time. This is tougher so more improvement will be needed. It’s not impossible and O Meara is in sublime form. However, he achieved his best speed figure of 69 back in December and has not got near that recently.
Zacynthus is 3-9 over 7f on good or quicker ground and has won on this course. He was third in a similar race at Doncaster last time. He was 10ls behind Redvers last year at Ascot and is 6lbs better off today. Cumani is 19-80 in handicaps at Haydock so his chance is a live one. However, Zacynthus is 0-8 off marks above 87. This may well be a prep race for the Royal Hunt Cup which is his main target.
Al Muheer is 0-6 at Haydock and has never won a race carrying less than 8-10, 0-10 with just the one place. Ruth Carr is 8-68 in handicaps at Haydock but 0-24 in class 3 or higher.
Powerful Presence is the second O Meara runner. It is a year since he won his last race off 87 and back down to 85 here he must run well. He is 5-14 over 7f but he has to lead.
Sir Reginald is 16lbs below his last winning mark two years ago. He is only 2lbs better off with Redvers for 6ls at Ascot last year. He is 0-5 over 7f.
Johnny Castle can run well fresh but he is 0-8 above class 4 and both his wins were when trained by Gosden, 0-6 for Amanda Perrett.
King Of Eden is 0-14 above class 4 and 0-6 in class 3.
Imperial Djay is well handicapped and has conditions to suit. It could be he is starting to regress now as he hasn’t shown any zest this season and Ruth Carr’s record in class 3 at this track are enough negatives to swerve him.
Comrade Bond has conditions to suit but all his wins have come on a straight track. Mark Tompkins clearly has some sort of problem at present as he is 0-40 in 2013 with just 3 placing.
Trade Secret has never run over further than six furlongs and is 0-3 going round a left hand bend. He can run well when fresh and this will be run to suit. He is by Trade Fair so he should stay 7f and he could run well at a big price.
Ducal is a six race maiden on the turf. He has won four times over this distance on the sand but he refused to race last time.
Conclusion: This is no where near as competitive as the numbers suggest. Sandy Lane should run well but it is a big ask 10lbs higher in a higher grade. Powerful Presence looks sure to lead and there are a few others who race prominently and will hassle him for the lead. That should set it up for a closer. Zacynthus should be on the premises as should Trade Secret if he stays. However, Redvers has top class form in better races and this looks a good opportunity before he starts his campaign in the big sprints at Ascot, Newmarket and Goodwood.
Mysterious Man led at this distance last time when beaten a short head by Sun Central at Salisbury. He ended last season in the UK with an excellent fourth in the Melrose Stakes, 5.75ls behind Guarantee who has subsequently been competing in Group races including the St Leger. Second was Biographer who subsequently won a listed race off 4lbs higher. Andrew Balding does well at Chester and since last August 6 of his 14 runners have won. However, he has interesting record when his horses are drawn in stalls 1-3. In the last 10 years he has had 14 runners drawn in stalls 1-3 and 5 have won. That improves to 5-8 when they are running in the same or lower class as they did on their last run. Only one has failed to place. Mysterious Man has conditions to suit.
Hallstatt has won his last two and steps up in grade. He has only run in class 3 twice, both unplaced, but he does have his conditions today. He was fourth in this race three years ago off 75 but he has never run well off marks beyond 70. He clearly is thriving at present and so are the yard but they have yet to break their duck at Chester. Mackie is 0-18 here.
Harvard N Yale stayed on last time over 12 furlongs to suggest the step up to 14f would suit. It is two years since he won though he is lightly raced and has been running in better races. Noseda only had two runners at this track last year and both won and his record of 4-14 over the last ten years suggests it is not a track he likes to visit much. He is by Smart Strike whose progeny do well in staying races and Harvard N Yale should run well.
Gabriel’s King showed his first form on turf on his initial run for David Simcock and the good doctor’s horse is sure to be spot on at his favourite track. However, this is a big jump in class and he is 0-9 in class 4 or better. However, Gabriel’s King is the only winner this yard has had in the last fortnight from 25 runners and Simcock’s record of 2-49 in handicaps at Chester is not inspiring.
Kuda Huraa was made second favourite for a similar event to this last time and didn’t run well off this mark. That took his record to 0-5 on turf. His recent second over 12f at Epsom is okay but he clearly doesn’t stay any further on the flat. Beaten 21ls and 11ls in his two runs beyond that distance. He is 8lbs above his last winning mark and his record off marks 81-88 reads 0-4.
Kiwayu is 0-5 on the turf with just one place. Luca Cumani managed to get a win out of him at Lingfield off 69 and the handicapper had his say and hiked him 12lbs. He is up in grade. Ian Williams is 7-65 in handicaps round here but I feel the horse is too high in the handicap.
The Fun Crusher hasn’t done much since his racecourse debut over 12f which he won. He was tried over 16f last time and didn’t stay so the drop back in distance should suit. Tim Easterby’s record in handicaps at Chester reads 9-143 but he is 0-19 over distances beyond 10.5f.
Masterful Act has only won on artificial surfaces, 0-7 on turf, and has only run twice in higher grade than class 5 finishing unplaced both times. He is 10lbs higher for winning a class 5 at Southwell.
Kiama Bay has won round Chester but he is 0-10 off marks above 80.
Swinging Hawk is a 16 race maiden in the UK though has won three races in France. The last of those was 4 years ago. He has run well after a break and is Ian Williams second runner in the race but he is 0-8 with maidens in handicaps at Chester.
Conclusion: This looks a two horse race on paper. I’m sure Harvard N Yale will be well prepared for this and Sanders last four rides for Noseda have returned form figures, 2211. However, he passed over in favour of Mysterious Man who was thought good enough to run in a group 2 in France on his final appearance last season. Given his trainers record at the track, he looks the one to be on.
REDVERS 5.30 HAYDOCK
Redvers has been a revelation since Ed Vaughan fitted the blinkers. Eight races have seen him pick up prize money five times which includes one win. He is a regular in a better grade than this and his record when racing round a left hand turn reads 3-7. He has returned the following form figures; 3211153. He was fifth in this race last year off 86, his last race without the blinkers. His running on fourth in the Victoria Cup will have put him spot on for this.
Sandy Lane continues to improve and is up 10lbs for winning a class 4 last time. This is tougher so more improvement will be needed. It’s not impossible and O Meara is in sublime form. However, he achieved his best speed figure of 69 back in December and has not got near that recently.
Zacynthus is 3-9 over 7f on good or quicker ground and has won on this course. He was third in a similar race at Doncaster last time. He was 10ls behind Redvers last year at Ascot and is 6lbs better off today. Cumani is 19-80 in handicaps at Haydock so his chance is a live one. However, Zacynthus is 0-8 off marks above 87. This may well be a prep race for the Royal Hunt Cup which is his main target.
Al Muheer is 0-6 at Haydock and has never won a race carrying less than 8-10, 0-10 with just the one place. Ruth Carr is 8-68 in handicaps at Haydock but 0-24 in class 3 or higher.
Powerful Presence is the second O Meara runner. It is a year since he won his last race off 87 and back down to 85 here he must run well. He is 5-14 over 7f but he has to lead.
Sir Reginald is 16lbs below his last winning mark two years ago. He is only 2lbs better off with Redvers for 6ls at Ascot last year. He is 0-5 over 7f.
Johnny Castle can run well fresh but he is 0-8 above class 4 and both his wins were when trained by Gosden, 0-6 for Amanda Perrett.
King Of Eden is 0-14 above class 4 and 0-6 in class 3.
Imperial Djay is well handicapped and has conditions to suit. It could be he is starting to regress now as he hasn’t shown any zest this season and Ruth Carr’s record in class 3 at this track are enough negatives to swerve him.
Comrade Bond has conditions to suit but all his wins have come on a straight track. Mark Tompkins clearly has some sort of problem at present as he is 0-40 in 2013 with just 3 placing.
Trade Secret has never run over further than six furlongs and is 0-3 going round a left hand bend. He can run well when fresh and this will be run to suit. He is by Trade Fair so he should stay 7f and he could run well at a big price.
Ducal is a six race maiden on the turf. He has won four times over this distance on the sand but he refused to race last time.
Conclusion: This is no where near as competitive as the numbers suggest. Sandy Lane should run well but it is a big ask 10lbs higher in a higher grade. Powerful Presence looks sure to lead and there are a few others who race prominently and will hassle him for the lead. That should set it up for a closer. Zacynthus should be on the premises as should Trade Secret if he stays. However, Redvers has top class form in better races and this looks a good opportunity before he starts his campaign in the big sprints at Ascot, Newmarket and Goodwood.
WELL DONE mlmrob 
Franktheform
Mare
Hate to say i told you so but ............ Lol well done Rob
mlmrob
Sire
TROPICS 3.20 WINDSOR
Tropics ran in a better race last time and was only beaten 1.5ls into 7th behind Yeeoow. The third home, Lady Gibraltar ran third in a class 2 off the same mark on Saturday. Off the same mark and in a first time hood, Tropics will find this assignment much easier. Jim Crowley is 4-14 for Dean Ivory at Windsor and that improves to 4-6 when the horse is single figure odds. Tropics will have to win this if his Wokingham entry is to be taken seriously.
Cheworee was beaten 4.5ls in a better race last time. She slept in the stalls and made ground when the fat lady had already sung. Her win over course and distance in soft ground two runs back looks weak form and Hughes is just 3-37 for Elsworth and Elsworth’s record with fillies as top weights against males is just 2-32.
Peace Seeker is 0-6 on turf with just one place plus he is 0-9 off marks in the 70s on the sand.
Jocasta Dawn has a win and a second from two runs at Windsor over 6f. She starts the season off a mark of 78, 5lbs higher than her winning mark. She should have more improvement in her and she should run well despite being drawn in 11.
Ashpan Sam won on good to firm as a 2yo but has shown a preference for ground with cut. He is 0-11 over 6f and 0-3 at Windsor and is 0-11 when returning to the track inside a fortnight. He is 0-14 in double figure fields.
Arctic Lynx has won four times, three times on sand and is 0-8 on good or quicker ground. He has never won off a mark of 80 or more, 0-8.
Divine Call is 0-7 over a straight track. He is 0-5 for Milton Bradley in class 4, beaten 15l, 18l, 8l, 13l, and 4l. This is the first time in three years he has carried under 9-0 though he is still 1lb above his last winning mark. Bradley is 6-150 in handicaps at Windsor
Sir Pedro was beaten just under 5ls in a similar class 4 at Ascot, avor 76,79 today. He is lightly raced but hasn’t really shown enough to suggest he can win a handicap off this mark. Charlie Hills is 1-25 in handicaps at Windsor.
Orders From Rome is 1-15 on turf and he is back on the mark he won off at Epsom last August. However, he is 0-10 in double figure fields with just one place. Eve Johnson Houghton is 2-62 in handicaps at Windsor.
The Tichborne has only ever won at Lingfield, three on the sand and one on the turf. Three of those four wins have come in single figure fields, 1-15 in fields of 10 runners or more. Teal is 1-24 in handicaps at Windsor. The Tichborne is well drawn and he could run well, if he wants to.
Novellen Lad has run well after a break before and has run the track well the twice he has been here which includes a third in this event last year off 5lbs higher. Six of his seven wins have come on good to firm ground and he is 0-9 on good. He is very ground dependent and if the going dries out his chance would increase. It is two years since he last won on the turf and he is 3lbs lower than that mark. It took a master class from Fallon to get his head in front at Lingfield in December 2011, his last win, and it may well be he is regressing now. If the conditions dry out he could still run well if he puts his mind to it.
Tartan Trip has his second start for his new yard and only won one race for Andrew Balding three years ago. He is 0-14 in double figure fields and 0-6 on straight tracks whilst Dace’s 3-20 strike rate in handicaps was down to one horse winning the three races.
Conclusion: Lots of negatives around which makes this far less competitive than it looks. There is no recognised front runner and that won’t benefit Cheworee who needs to come from off the pace and she has to give weight away. The unexposed Tropics has bigger fish to fry and this looks a very good opportunity for him. That has been cemented by the booking of Crowley and he may well take a bit of beating as he races prominently and with the likely lack of pace he will be in the right place.
LOOKS LIKE RAIN 5.35 REDCAR
Looks Like Rain was very unlucky in a better race than this last time, average OR 64, today’s 53. She was third over a stiff 12 furlongs at Newcastle running on well at the finish. She has two furlongs further to travel today on a much flatter track and she has won over further. Her record in class 6 reads well; 3122832. Despite her name she dislikes the rain with her only unplaced effort on good to soft. Ellison does well in handicaps at Redcar, certainly in staying races, 3-13, but his record with horses that are in the top two of the weights reads 6-17, 2-3 in staying races, including one in this race.
Green To Gold has his ideal conditions and the grey is a different horse in the blinkers; 6-14. He mixes jumping and flat but he is 9lbs higher than his last winning mark and he is 0-010 off marks above 60. He likes to lead which will not be ideal here.
Medieval Bishop’s one win was over 7f but he run his best race over a staying trip last time when just touched off at Wolverhampton. He has been put up 1lb for that effort and the visor replaces the cheekpieces. Gibbons is 4-16 for Walford in handicaps at Redcar with a further 11 placed. He should run well but he has to lead and that won’t be easy here.
Dubara Reef beat Medieval Bishop last time and meets that rival on the same terms. He is 2-4 at Redcar and was third in this race last year off a mark of 51. He is another that likes to lead though.
Sally Friday is a 19 race maiden and she has run in six handicaps over distances of 12f or more and not placed in any. Ed Tuer is 1-20 in handicaps at Redcar.
Torero always seems to be to the fore of the betting but never delivers. He is a 12 race maiden now. Kevin Ryan has applied cheekpieces for the first time and he is 30-287 with horses in the first time pieces. Torero just run at Yarmouth three days ago and didn’t handle the track and is another who likes to lead.
Miss Mysterious has her third run in the UK but she has been off a long time. She didn’t show anything in four races in France . Phil Kirby is 0-16 with horses returning to the track after more than a year off. She is another who likes to lead.
Kians Joy has a soft ground win at Newcastle to his name but he has never placed in eight races when the going is good to soft or quicker.
Dimashq has her first run for Richard Guest. She is 0-23 when returning to the track after a break of 30 days or more and has unplaced in three races round here. Guest is 11-183 with horses racing on their debut for him when arriving from another yard, 1-70 after a break of 180 days or more.
Conclusion: This will be run at some pace with at least four of these who like to make the running. Add to it the likelihood of Torara being lit up by the cheekpieces then the race should be run to suit a closer. Brian Ellison looks to have found the perfect race for Looks Like Rain and she should be able to pick these off at ease up this long straight.
Tropics ran in a better race last time and was only beaten 1.5ls into 7th behind Yeeoow. The third home, Lady Gibraltar ran third in a class 2 off the same mark on Saturday. Off the same mark and in a first time hood, Tropics will find this assignment much easier. Jim Crowley is 4-14 for Dean Ivory at Windsor and that improves to 4-6 when the horse is single figure odds. Tropics will have to win this if his Wokingham entry is to be taken seriously.
Cheworee was beaten 4.5ls in a better race last time. She slept in the stalls and made ground when the fat lady had already sung. Her win over course and distance in soft ground two runs back looks weak form and Hughes is just 3-37 for Elsworth and Elsworth’s record with fillies as top weights against males is just 2-32.
Peace Seeker is 0-6 on turf with just one place plus he is 0-9 off marks in the 70s on the sand.
Jocasta Dawn has a win and a second from two runs at Windsor over 6f. She starts the season off a mark of 78, 5lbs higher than her winning mark. She should have more improvement in her and she should run well despite being drawn in 11.
Ashpan Sam won on good to firm as a 2yo but has shown a preference for ground with cut. He is 0-11 over 6f and 0-3 at Windsor and is 0-11 when returning to the track inside a fortnight. He is 0-14 in double figure fields.
Arctic Lynx has won four times, three times on sand and is 0-8 on good or quicker ground. He has never won off a mark of 80 or more, 0-8.
Divine Call is 0-7 over a straight track. He is 0-5 for Milton Bradley in class 4, beaten 15l, 18l, 8l, 13l, and 4l. This is the first time in three years he has carried under 9-0 though he is still 1lb above his last winning mark. Bradley is 6-150 in handicaps at Windsor
Sir Pedro was beaten just under 5ls in a similar class 4 at Ascot, avor 76,79 today. He is lightly raced but hasn’t really shown enough to suggest he can win a handicap off this mark. Charlie Hills is 1-25 in handicaps at Windsor.
Orders From Rome is 1-15 on turf and he is back on the mark he won off at Epsom last August. However, he is 0-10 in double figure fields with just one place. Eve Johnson Houghton is 2-62 in handicaps at Windsor.
The Tichborne has only ever won at Lingfield, three on the sand and one on the turf. Three of those four wins have come in single figure fields, 1-15 in fields of 10 runners or more. Teal is 1-24 in handicaps at Windsor. The Tichborne is well drawn and he could run well, if he wants to.
Novellen Lad has run well after a break before and has run the track well the twice he has been here which includes a third in this event last year off 5lbs higher. Six of his seven wins have come on good to firm ground and he is 0-9 on good. He is very ground dependent and if the going dries out his chance would increase. It is two years since he last won on the turf and he is 3lbs lower than that mark. It took a master class from Fallon to get his head in front at Lingfield in December 2011, his last win, and it may well be he is regressing now. If the conditions dry out he could still run well if he puts his mind to it.
Tartan Trip has his second start for his new yard and only won one race for Andrew Balding three years ago. He is 0-14 in double figure fields and 0-6 on straight tracks whilst Dace’s 3-20 strike rate in handicaps was down to one horse winning the three races.
Conclusion: Lots of negatives around which makes this far less competitive than it looks. There is no recognised front runner and that won’t benefit Cheworee who needs to come from off the pace and she has to give weight away. The unexposed Tropics has bigger fish to fry and this looks a very good opportunity for him. That has been cemented by the booking of Crowley and he may well take a bit of beating as he races prominently and with the likely lack of pace he will be in the right place.
LOOKS LIKE RAIN 5.35 REDCAR
Looks Like Rain was very unlucky in a better race than this last time, average OR 64, today’s 53. She was third over a stiff 12 furlongs at Newcastle running on well at the finish. She has two furlongs further to travel today on a much flatter track and she has won over further. Her record in class 6 reads well; 3122832. Despite her name she dislikes the rain with her only unplaced effort on good to soft. Ellison does well in handicaps at Redcar, certainly in staying races, 3-13, but his record with horses that are in the top two of the weights reads 6-17, 2-3 in staying races, including one in this race.
Green To Gold has his ideal conditions and the grey is a different horse in the blinkers; 6-14. He mixes jumping and flat but he is 9lbs higher than his last winning mark and he is 0-010 off marks above 60. He likes to lead which will not be ideal here.
Medieval Bishop’s one win was over 7f but he run his best race over a staying trip last time when just touched off at Wolverhampton. He has been put up 1lb for that effort and the visor replaces the cheekpieces. Gibbons is 4-16 for Walford in handicaps at Redcar with a further 11 placed. He should run well but he has to lead and that won’t be easy here.
Dubara Reef beat Medieval Bishop last time and meets that rival on the same terms. He is 2-4 at Redcar and was third in this race last year off a mark of 51. He is another that likes to lead though.
Sally Friday is a 19 race maiden and she has run in six handicaps over distances of 12f or more and not placed in any. Ed Tuer is 1-20 in handicaps at Redcar.
Torero always seems to be to the fore of the betting but never delivers. He is a 12 race maiden now. Kevin Ryan has applied cheekpieces for the first time and he is 30-287 with horses in the first time pieces. Torero just run at Yarmouth three days ago and didn’t handle the track and is another who likes to lead.
Miss Mysterious has her third run in the UK but she has been off a long time. She didn’t show anything in four races in France . Phil Kirby is 0-16 with horses returning to the track after more than a year off. She is another who likes to lead.
Kians Joy has a soft ground win at Newcastle to his name but he has never placed in eight races when the going is good to soft or quicker.
Dimashq has her first run for Richard Guest. She is 0-23 when returning to the track after a break of 30 days or more and has unplaced in three races round here. Guest is 11-183 with horses racing on their debut for him when arriving from another yard, 1-70 after a break of 180 days or more.
Conclusion: This will be run at some pace with at least four of these who like to make the running. Add to it the likelihood of Torara being lit up by the cheekpieces then the race should be run to suit a closer. Brian Ellison looks to have found the perfect race for Looks Like Rain and she should be able to pick these off at ease up this long straight.
formtheory
Stallion
Hi Rob!
I was thinking about backing Tropics today, after reading your excellent write up decided I would take the plunge.
Won easily! Nice one mate!
I was thinking about backing Tropics today, after reading your excellent write up decided I would take the plunge.
Won easily! Nice one mate!
mlmrob
Sire
It's great when you can see them before their race, lots of questions can be answered.
TOGA TIGER 7.10 YARMOUTH (Each Way)
Toga Tiger ran really well last time considering there was no pace in the race when eighth to Rockalong. Karaka Jack, the second that day, has since won after not having the race run to suit and the third, sixth and ninth have all placed. Toga Tiger was pretty moderate until he changed to Jeremy Gask’s stables. He has since won 6-9 for the Sutton Veny handler and that improves to 5-7 when racing over 8f. The Wiltshire air must suit him as he won races as a 2yo for Mick Channon. This race tonight will be run to suit and he has conditions in his favour. The yard has said he will be a non runner if the ground firms up. He was pulled out of a race at Haydock at the weekend because of the ground.
Zeyran makes her handicap debut after three races in maidens. It is interesting she has dropped in distance to 8f after all her races were over 10f. Sir Henry Cecil is 7-72 with maidens making their debut in a handicap and was only 1-12 last season. She races keenly and likes to lead which is not ideal here.
Great Expectations is 0-6 on good to soft or quicker and has never placed in three races here. He has never placed in four handicaps where he has had to carry more than 9-0 and has never placed in three races over 8f.
Nimiety won her race on good to soft last time and is up in the weights and grade. She is another who won’t have this run to suit as she likes to lead. So with the quicker ground and the way this will be run she is passed over.
My Single Malt has had thirteen races for Julie Camacho and lost them all. He stayed on over 7f off this mark last time to suggest the step up to 8f will suit. My Single Malt hasn’t won since his 2yo days and although he won a class 2 nursery his record in class 4 is poor, 0-8 with one place.
Cruiser comes from a yard that has just had 4 winners out of their last 100 runners. He has gone 18 races on turf without tasting success and he is 0-17 on good to soft or quicker. He is 0-11 over 8f on turf and has yet to win in class 4 0-4. Willie Muir is 0-29 in handicaps at Yarmouth with just one place.
Patriotic finished second in this race last year off a mark of 68 and has to race off 75 this year. He is now 0-7 at this track but has placed a couple of times but his record on good to firm of 0-5 is worrying. This will be run to suit however.
Amoya was unplaced in this race last year beaten 15ls and is just 3lbs lower. She has won twice here and over the distance. However, she is 0-8 on good to firm and is another who leads.
CONCLUSION: There is a lot of pace in this race and that should set this up for a closer. Toga Tiger is exposed but has done nothing but improve under the care of Jeremy Gask. He is a ridiculous price for this as most of them have negatives that will prevent them from being on the premises. The 11/1 available this morning makes him a smashing each way bet.
RHAGORI 8.50 LINGFIELD
Rhagori has a superb record when racing against her own sex. She has never finished out of the frame returning the following form figures; 12413. She was beaten 4ls in the class 2 City and Suburban last time where she was made 13/2 behind four 11/2 co favourites. She didn’t handle the track at Epsom. Still, that run will have brought her on and she is 2-4 in class 4 and has conditions to suit today. Crowley is 15-74 on the sand at Lingfield when riding for Beckett which improves to 5-21 in handicaps and 3-9 in class 4. In the last 12 months they have teamed up 4 times in class 4 handicaps and returned the following figures; 2112.
Srinigar Girl was so frustrating when under the care of Sir Henry Cecil and the fact he hasn’t persevered with her speaks volumes. Of the 140 horses to leave Cecil’s yard to go and race for another trainer only 12 have managed to win on their debut for their new yard. However, Clive Cox does well with other peoples cast offs, 8-31. He has acquired three from Cecil with one winning. In the last 12 months Clive Cox has sent 36 fillies out to race against their own sex and only one won. Srinigar Girl is 0-5 in handicaps and whilst she could run well, she is up in class here and has her own ideas about the game.
Saint Helena is 6lbs lower than her win on turf last time but her record of 1-12 on sand suggests she prefers turf. She has run here twice and unplaced on both occasions. Harry Dunlop is 5-51 in handicaps here and 3-45 in fillies’ handicaps.
Four Leaves is 0-4 in class 4 though she was beaten a head in a similar race to this over course and distance in November. She is 2lbs lower than her mark that day. She beat Srinigar Girl 2.5ls in her maiden win at Wolverhampton and is 9lbs worse off today. She was beaten 11ls last time and hung left and that is a little alarming as is the fact that Botti is 0-17 in fillies’ handicaps here. Singspiel’s female progeny have a poor record from 4yo onwards on the flat, 40-560. She should run well but her regular pilot, Adam Kirby has gone to Yarmouth. However, Martin Harley is 3-7 for Botti at Lingfield on the sand.
Adiynara has three seconds from four races when returning from a break of 120 days or more. However, she is a five race maiden on the flat. She hasn’t run over 10 furlongs for two years and I can only think that this is to put her sharp for a summer jumps campaign. Neil Mulholland is 1-7 in handicaps at Lingfield.
Conclusion: There are three horses who like to make the running here, Adiynara, Four Leaves and Saint Helena. Srinigar Girl likes to race prominently too. That leaves just the one closer, Rhagori. She is the class horse in the race and she will take an awful lot of beating if this pans out the way it should.
TOGA TIGER 7.10 YARMOUTH (Each Way)
Toga Tiger ran really well last time considering there was no pace in the race when eighth to Rockalong. Karaka Jack, the second that day, has since won after not having the race run to suit and the third, sixth and ninth have all placed. Toga Tiger was pretty moderate until he changed to Jeremy Gask’s stables. He has since won 6-9 for the Sutton Veny handler and that improves to 5-7 when racing over 8f. The Wiltshire air must suit him as he won races as a 2yo for Mick Channon. This race tonight will be run to suit and he has conditions in his favour. The yard has said he will be a non runner if the ground firms up. He was pulled out of a race at Haydock at the weekend because of the ground.
Zeyran makes her handicap debut after three races in maidens. It is interesting she has dropped in distance to 8f after all her races were over 10f. Sir Henry Cecil is 7-72 with maidens making their debut in a handicap and was only 1-12 last season. She races keenly and likes to lead which is not ideal here.
Great Expectations is 0-6 on good to soft or quicker and has never placed in three races here. He has never placed in four handicaps where he has had to carry more than 9-0 and has never placed in three races over 8f.
Nimiety won her race on good to soft last time and is up in the weights and grade. She is another who won’t have this run to suit as she likes to lead. So with the quicker ground and the way this will be run she is passed over.
My Single Malt has had thirteen races for Julie Camacho and lost them all. He stayed on over 7f off this mark last time to suggest the step up to 8f will suit. My Single Malt hasn’t won since his 2yo days and although he won a class 2 nursery his record in class 4 is poor, 0-8 with one place.
Cruiser comes from a yard that has just had 4 winners out of their last 100 runners. He has gone 18 races on turf without tasting success and he is 0-17 on good to soft or quicker. He is 0-11 over 8f on turf and has yet to win in class 4 0-4. Willie Muir is 0-29 in handicaps at Yarmouth with just one place.
Patriotic finished second in this race last year off a mark of 68 and has to race off 75 this year. He is now 0-7 at this track but has placed a couple of times but his record on good to firm of 0-5 is worrying. This will be run to suit however.
Amoya was unplaced in this race last year beaten 15ls and is just 3lbs lower. She has won twice here and over the distance. However, she is 0-8 on good to firm and is another who leads.
CONCLUSION: There is a lot of pace in this race and that should set this up for a closer. Toga Tiger is exposed but has done nothing but improve under the care of Jeremy Gask. He is a ridiculous price for this as most of them have negatives that will prevent them from being on the premises. The 11/1 available this morning makes him a smashing each way bet.
RHAGORI 8.50 LINGFIELD
Rhagori has a superb record when racing against her own sex. She has never finished out of the frame returning the following form figures; 12413. She was beaten 4ls in the class 2 City and Suburban last time where she was made 13/2 behind four 11/2 co favourites. She didn’t handle the track at Epsom. Still, that run will have brought her on and she is 2-4 in class 4 and has conditions to suit today. Crowley is 15-74 on the sand at Lingfield when riding for Beckett which improves to 5-21 in handicaps and 3-9 in class 4. In the last 12 months they have teamed up 4 times in class 4 handicaps and returned the following figures; 2112.
Srinigar Girl was so frustrating when under the care of Sir Henry Cecil and the fact he hasn’t persevered with her speaks volumes. Of the 140 horses to leave Cecil’s yard to go and race for another trainer only 12 have managed to win on their debut for their new yard. However, Clive Cox does well with other peoples cast offs, 8-31. He has acquired three from Cecil with one winning. In the last 12 months Clive Cox has sent 36 fillies out to race against their own sex and only one won. Srinigar Girl is 0-5 in handicaps and whilst she could run well, she is up in class here and has her own ideas about the game.
Saint Helena is 6lbs lower than her win on turf last time but her record of 1-12 on sand suggests she prefers turf. She has run here twice and unplaced on both occasions. Harry Dunlop is 5-51 in handicaps here and 3-45 in fillies’ handicaps.
Four Leaves is 0-4 in class 4 though she was beaten a head in a similar race to this over course and distance in November. She is 2lbs lower than her mark that day. She beat Srinigar Girl 2.5ls in her maiden win at Wolverhampton and is 9lbs worse off today. She was beaten 11ls last time and hung left and that is a little alarming as is the fact that Botti is 0-17 in fillies’ handicaps here. Singspiel’s female progeny have a poor record from 4yo onwards on the flat, 40-560. She should run well but her regular pilot, Adam Kirby has gone to Yarmouth. However, Martin Harley is 3-7 for Botti at Lingfield on the sand.
Adiynara has three seconds from four races when returning from a break of 120 days or more. However, she is a five race maiden on the flat. She hasn’t run over 10 furlongs for two years and I can only think that this is to put her sharp for a summer jumps campaign. Neil Mulholland is 1-7 in handicaps at Lingfield.
Conclusion: There are three horses who like to make the running here, Adiynara, Four Leaves and Saint Helena. Srinigar Girl likes to race prominently too. That leaves just the one closer, Rhagori. She is the class horse in the race and she will take an awful lot of beating if this pans out the way it should.
mlmrob
Sire
Cheers Scar. They got stuck into Rhagori. 
SOUL MAGIC 3.20 CARTMEL
Soul Magic is 5-6 over this course and distance and won this race two years ago when his love affair with the track started. He had a nice pipe opener at Kelso behind stablemate Prince Tam when he stayed on into third and that would have put him spot on for this. That form looks okay as the fourth has subsequently won. He is not ground dependent so any further rain will not inhibit his chance. Harriet Graham is 7-13 at this track in handicaps in the last two years, this horse with five and Scotswell has won two. Soul Magic can stalk or be held up and this race is much easier than the one he won last August off a mark of 94. Average OR 104 to 94.
Cloverhill Lad is ridden by Gary Rutherford who was on Soul Magic for four of his wins here. It was not a matter of choice though as he is attached to the Coltherd yard. Cloverhill Lad won last time off a mark of 85 and is up in class and the weights here. He may have some improvement in him but he has never won a hurdle or chase off a mark above 90, 0-5. He has won on the ground but he has never won left handed, 0-4.
Sergeant Pink has run with credit off this mark this year. After winning a four runner chase in January off 95, he returned to this mark, after struggling off higher marks, at Hexham earlier this month and run Or DOdairies to 1.5l. That was over a very stiff 20.5f and the return to 17.5f will suit. He has conditions to suit but he has carried 11-0 or more in seven handicaps and never placed in any.
Against The Wind doesn’t have many miles on the clock but this is tougher than the race he won off 95 at Carlisle in March which had an average OR of 84. He then was beaten 1.5ls off this mark in a better race at the same track before finishing 26.5ls behind Soul Magic at Kelso. Same terms today. He appears to need a break between races as he is 0-4 when returning to the track inside a month, never placing.
Star Galaxy won off 104 at Chepstow last year to suggest he can be thereabouts off 102 today. He bumped into Fiftyonefiftyone last time and was beaten 9ls off this mark and that was a much better race than this, average OR 112. The old boy should run his race but he comes from a yard that has had 4 winners from their last 100 runners and is on a losing run of 30 stretching back to March. In the last two years, John Flint has sent out 38 chasers and they have all lost.
Laybach is a 23 race maiden but was second in both his chase starts back in 2011. Quite why they have waited this long for the horse to make his third chase start is unknown but both the seconds were over 20.5f and he appears to be better on right handed tracks. Goldie is 1-5 in handicap chases here and has had a further two placed.
Garryowen Foster has his second race for Joanne Foster and the horse should pick up a race in her care. She is a dab hand at improving horses but Garryowen Foster is 0-7, never placed, on good to soft or slower.
Conclusion: Laybach is a horse I cannot get a handle on here but this will not be run to suit him. He will have company for the lead as CloverhIll Lad and Against The Wind also like to race prominently. That should set this up for a closer. Star Galaxy should run well but he has been here four times before and lost them all. His trainer’s form is very poor. Soul Magic has clearly had this as his target and Harriet Graham is sure to have him cherry ripe.
FACE THE PROBLEM 8.05 BEVERLEY (Each Way)
Face The Problem has thrived since joining Jamie Osborne in September. His record in class 2 or worse since then reads; 22214. He has had two races this season, at Chester where he blew the start and was running on best of all when only beaten 2ls. He then went to York for a Group 2 where he finished down the field. However, he will have this run to suit tonight and his record over 5 furlongs on a stiff track reads; 112. He is one of only three horses that can win this race on official figures.
Heeraat is the likely jolly and rightly so. He was fourth in the Palace House last time behind Sole Power and Kingsgate Native and the second named won the Temple Stakes at the weekend. Very strong form. However, he likes to be in the van and with the likely pace to be red hot he could well end up in a pace battle. The rain forecast in East Yorkshire could make the ground softer than he would like. If he doesn’t get involved in the pace battle, he would probably dot up.
Hamza is a trail blazer and that won’t suit here. He won’t like any more rain on the Westwood and with it forecast to fall for 8 hours the ground could well be against him tonight. He does has the form to win this.
Bear Behind won his second race two years ago and was beaten a neck last year in his second race of the season so he should strip fitter for his debut in March. However, he is another front runner and although the softening ground won’t inconvenience him, the pace battle will. Dascombe is 2-35 at Beverley. He has reached for the hood for Bear Behind but Dascombe is 0-3, no places, with horses in a first time hood and 5-113 in any first time headgear.
Justineo is another front runner who has a 6f maiden as his only win. He has had one run over 5f. He is going to struggle on these terms against the four horses already mentioned.
Kyleakin Lass will have this run to suit but she will struggle on these terms. Paul Fitzsimons hasn’t had a winner in 2013, 0-30.
Inixile is another front runner who won a listed race in August of last year. He has to give 11lbs to his main rivals here without having anything in hand on official figures.
Burning Thread is another who can lead. He is 23lbs or more worse off with his rivals at the weights and is clearly here for a night out for his owner.
Conclusion: Form will not account to much amongst the top three in the betting here as the way the race will be run will not suit Hamza or Heeraat. Face The Problem has his ideal conditions and the heavy rain forecast will only enhance his chance further. He is an exceptional each way bet.
SOUL MAGIC 3.20 CARTMEL
Soul Magic is 5-6 over this course and distance and won this race two years ago when his love affair with the track started. He had a nice pipe opener at Kelso behind stablemate Prince Tam when he stayed on into third and that would have put him spot on for this. That form looks okay as the fourth has subsequently won. He is not ground dependent so any further rain will not inhibit his chance. Harriet Graham is 7-13 at this track in handicaps in the last two years, this horse with five and Scotswell has won two. Soul Magic can stalk or be held up and this race is much easier than the one he won last August off a mark of 94. Average OR 104 to 94.
Cloverhill Lad is ridden by Gary Rutherford who was on Soul Magic for four of his wins here. It was not a matter of choice though as he is attached to the Coltherd yard. Cloverhill Lad won last time off a mark of 85 and is up in class and the weights here. He may have some improvement in him but he has never won a hurdle or chase off a mark above 90, 0-5. He has won on the ground but he has never won left handed, 0-4.
Sergeant Pink has run with credit off this mark this year. After winning a four runner chase in January off 95, he returned to this mark, after struggling off higher marks, at Hexham earlier this month and run Or DOdairies to 1.5l. That was over a very stiff 20.5f and the return to 17.5f will suit. He has conditions to suit but he has carried 11-0 or more in seven handicaps and never placed in any.
Against The Wind doesn’t have many miles on the clock but this is tougher than the race he won off 95 at Carlisle in March which had an average OR of 84. He then was beaten 1.5ls off this mark in a better race at the same track before finishing 26.5ls behind Soul Magic at Kelso. Same terms today. He appears to need a break between races as he is 0-4 when returning to the track inside a month, never placing.
Star Galaxy won off 104 at Chepstow last year to suggest he can be thereabouts off 102 today. He bumped into Fiftyonefiftyone last time and was beaten 9ls off this mark and that was a much better race than this, average OR 112. The old boy should run his race but he comes from a yard that has had 4 winners from their last 100 runners and is on a losing run of 30 stretching back to March. In the last two years, John Flint has sent out 38 chasers and they have all lost.
Laybach is a 23 race maiden but was second in both his chase starts back in 2011. Quite why they have waited this long for the horse to make his third chase start is unknown but both the seconds were over 20.5f and he appears to be better on right handed tracks. Goldie is 1-5 in handicap chases here and has had a further two placed.
Garryowen Foster has his second race for Joanne Foster and the horse should pick up a race in her care. She is a dab hand at improving horses but Garryowen Foster is 0-7, never placed, on good to soft or slower.
Conclusion: Laybach is a horse I cannot get a handle on here but this will not be run to suit him. He will have company for the lead as CloverhIll Lad and Against The Wind also like to race prominently. That should set this up for a closer. Star Galaxy should run well but he has been here four times before and lost them all. His trainer’s form is very poor. Soul Magic has clearly had this as his target and Harriet Graham is sure to have him cherry ripe.
FACE THE PROBLEM 8.05 BEVERLEY (Each Way)
Face The Problem has thrived since joining Jamie Osborne in September. His record in class 2 or worse since then reads; 22214. He has had two races this season, at Chester where he blew the start and was running on best of all when only beaten 2ls. He then went to York for a Group 2 where he finished down the field. However, he will have this run to suit tonight and his record over 5 furlongs on a stiff track reads; 112. He is one of only three horses that can win this race on official figures.
Heeraat is the likely jolly and rightly so. He was fourth in the Palace House last time behind Sole Power and Kingsgate Native and the second named won the Temple Stakes at the weekend. Very strong form. However, he likes to be in the van and with the likely pace to be red hot he could well end up in a pace battle. The rain forecast in East Yorkshire could make the ground softer than he would like. If he doesn’t get involved in the pace battle, he would probably dot up.
Hamza is a trail blazer and that won’t suit here. He won’t like any more rain on the Westwood and with it forecast to fall for 8 hours the ground could well be against him tonight. He does has the form to win this.
Bear Behind won his second race two years ago and was beaten a neck last year in his second race of the season so he should strip fitter for his debut in March. However, he is another front runner and although the softening ground won’t inconvenience him, the pace battle will. Dascombe is 2-35 at Beverley. He has reached for the hood for Bear Behind but Dascombe is 0-3, no places, with horses in a first time hood and 5-113 in any first time headgear.
Justineo is another front runner who has a 6f maiden as his only win. He has had one run over 5f. He is going to struggle on these terms against the four horses already mentioned.
Kyleakin Lass will have this run to suit but she will struggle on these terms. Paul Fitzsimons hasn’t had a winner in 2013, 0-30.
Inixile is another front runner who won a listed race in August of last year. He has to give 11lbs to his main rivals here without having anything in hand on official figures.
Burning Thread is another who can lead. He is 23lbs or more worse off with his rivals at the weights and is clearly here for a night out for his owner.
Conclusion: Form will not account to much amongst the top three in the betting here as the way the race will be run will not suit Hamza or Heeraat. Face The Problem has his ideal conditions and the heavy rain forecast will only enhance his chance further. He is an exceptional each way bet.