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SIG's AW Sprint Speed Ratings

To tell you the truth I've almost forgotten exactly how my ratings are arrived at now!
They do take weight, class and distance beaten into account, but I have tweaked them so many times maybe the original idea has been lost.
 
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Sleepy Blue Ocean- :) 1st @ 5.53 BSP
Under Siege - :( 5th @ 5.30 BSP
First Rebellion - NR

Great run from Sleepy Blue Ocean who kept on the pace right to the line! Under Siege was unlucky, beaten by a length into 5th. First Rebellion was a non runner.

+3.63pts profit for the day :D

Cheers,
SIG
 
24th March 2016
A few sprint races on tomorrow at Wolverhampton but thanks to work, I only have time to look at one and I couldn't have made it any easier on myself.... o_O

Wolverhampton 15.25
Give Us A Belle 814
Your Gifted 824
CHARLIE'S LAD 844
A very tight class 6 race which I have down as less than half a second between the top seven! I have an angle into the race that I am happy with for four different horses which makes this one a nightmare to call. Joint fourth I have China Excel and Extreme Supreme. China Excel is improving all the time and ran well at C&D here last time. He will have to improve again if he is to feature in this one though and I'm not sure the pace of the this race will suit. Extreme Supreme isn't so much an improving horse as a consistently quick one although he like China, he will need to improve on his recent form if he is to feature.

Third rated I have Give Us A Belle. He has early pace which will see him break clear of the runners directly around him and his best rating at C&D puts him into contention. The only downside I see with him is that it is difficult to win from the front at Wolverhampton and that is where I reckon he will be. My second rated is Your Gifted who has been the fastest over C&D recently and is capable of running a fast race despite the high mark. I reckon being drawn on the outside will suit and will give him space to make his move in the closing stages.

And finally my top rated Charlie's Lad. I haven't seen any prices yet but I suspect Charlie's Lad will open favourite around 3/1 and maybe go off even shorter. He is my top rated though for a reason, has bags of pace, ran a very quick race at Lingfield LTO and at C&D here last time and is running off a better mark than most here. That said, I'm having a hard time separating the top three. I have spent maybe the last 90 minutes just staring at the figures trying to find what angle fits best. I would have normally walked away long before this stage but as it is my only involvement tomorrow, I think I will just follow my ratings and go with Charlie's Lad.

Selections:
Charlie's Lad - 1.15pt Win @ BSP

Cheers,
SIG
 
25th March 2016

Due to work, I've had little time to properly assess tomorrow's racing. I did run some very quick ratings and I have Goken currently on top in the 14.10 at Lingfield. There has been a few non runners declared which has only increased his lead at the top and in addition, he is drawn in stall one with the stalls next to him empty. I'm thinking this will give him a clear start and the chance to get ahead of the chasing pack. His raw pace should do the rest. Unfortunately everyone will probably be backing him so I think I'll give him a miss. The rest of the racing is too close to call without proper study.

I'll be done with work after tomorrow and there is some nice sprint racing at Kempton to look forward to on Saturday.

Cheers,
SIG
 
NigelRG said:
SIG SIG a thread to checkout, it's were I started:-

http://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/hrb-for-novices.19351/

I was a complete novice when I started this.

Nige
Click to expand...

Thanks @Nige. This HRB looks like a useful tool. Does it calculate speed ratings and if so, how are they compiled?

I think I need to find a ratings service that calculates speed in a similar way I do or that I can at least convert to a baseline I can work with. My manual method takes me about an hour for a 12 runner race so it can take all evening to get through three or four races. This is before the form analysis, pace review, watching a few races, etc, etc. Removing the task of calculating speed would free up so much of my time and allow me spend more time on the pace analysis as that is where the real information is.

Cheers,
SIG
 
SIG SIG can you not use Excel to calculate your speed ratings? I use it with my ratings which also take weight and class into account. The speed part of my ratings is really not that accurate because I do not take the time of each previous race into account, just distance beaten.
It takes me about one minute per runner to calculate the ratings.

Only one race of interest to me today:
16:30 Wolverhampton
1 Ballista 105.50
2 Rusty Rocket 101.00
3 Vimy Ridge 100.50
6 Top Boy 100.50
5 Something Lucky 100.33
8 Secret Asset 99.17
9 Pushkin Museum 97.83
4 Scarborough 97.00
7 King Crimson 96.67
 
Last edited:
SIG said:
Thanks @Nige. This HRB looks like a useful tool. Does it calculate speed ratings and if so, how are they compiled?

I think I need to find a ratings service that calculates speed in a similar way I do or that I can at least convert to a baseline I can work with. My manual method takes me about an hour for a 12 runner race so it can take all evening to get through three or four races. This is before the form analysis, pace review, watching a few races, etc, etc. Removing the task of calculating speed would free up so much of my time and allow me spend more time on the pace analysis as that is where the real information is.

Cheers,
SIG
Click to expand...

Hi SIG SIG

Are you not working from a data base of speed figs. it reads like you are pulling up a race and then having to look at their last runs and work out speed figs for each runners LTO Race
 
Ferdy said:
SIG SIG can you not use Excel to calculate your speed ratings? I use it with my ratings which also take weight and class into account. The speed part of my ratings is really not that accurate because I do not take the time of each previous race into account, just distance beaten.
It takes me about one minute per runner to calculate the ratings.

Only one race of interest to me today:
16:30 Wolverhampton
1 Ballista 105.50
2 Rusty Rocket 101.00
3 Vimy Ridge 100.50
6 Top Boy 100.50
5 Something Lucky 100.33
8 Secret Asset 99.17
9 Pushkin Museum 97.83
4 Scarborough 97.00
7 King Crimson 96.67
Click to expand...

I'm not sure I follow the logic in those ratings Ferdy. How can distance beaten LTO be used to rate a horse running in a different race against different competition?

Chesham said:
Hi SIG SIG

Are you not working from a data base of speed figs. it reads like you are pulling up a race and then having to look at their last runs and work out speed figs for each runners LTO Race
Click to expand...

I had a database with nearly five years worth of all weather ratings on my old laptop which was stolen last year. I did have a back-up disk which I cleverly kept in the same bag as the laptop so I wouldn't ever lose it :doh:I got the guy who done it a couple of days later (and he was taught an almighty lesson!) but the laptop and all was long gone.

So yeah, at the minute I am working on compiling my new database from scratch so most races need to be manually rated which takes an age every evening. But hey it pays well (well, sometimes :p)

Cheers,
SIG
 
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