SIG's AW Sprint Speed Ratings

[cluster]

well done SIG boom boom
cheers

 

[Graeme]

Nice result SIG well done

 

[Chesham]

Good start SIG. Intrigues by your methods.

Still haven't got round to compiling my own, very time consuming.

Chesham, I am interested in your mention of "Three Mistakes". Had a search of the interenet and can find no mention of this. Have most other books on speed figures/ratings and would be interested in reading this. Any links?

Cheers

Kevin

It was a E Booklet Published by Dark Horse, who used to have a Rating Service Called Dark Horse

 

[Ronald Shaw]

My speed ratings on that day adjusted for weight....

SIR GEOFFREY 616 6F S
SPOWARTICUS 675 6F S
MONSIEUR JIMMY 718 6F S

Sir G was just over half a second off the pace. However if you compare the bigger picture...

Since that race, Sir G has ran a 722 and a 833 over the same C&D. Infact, Sir G's last four runs here read, 582, 616, 722 & 833 (LTO). He is running off a lower mark that his last two runs (8-9). If he continues to improve at his current rate, a projected run of 887 this time out seems about right.

Spowarticus's best performance at C&D recently was 775. However his last three runs here read, 775, 426 & 675 (LTO @ Southwell). He ran an 840 LTO at Wolverhampton but that form is uncomparable. Running off a lower mark today (8-13), a projected run of anywhere between 700 and 800 is possible. Playing it safe at 782 this time out seems about right.

Monsieur Jimmy has only had the one comparable run recently when he ran his winning 718. We should expect an improvement so a projected run of 743 this time out seems about right.

The only other two horses worthy of consideration....

Lackaday has ran the quickest around here at 845 on his last trip around Southwell. However that run was over three months ago and was off a mark of 8-5. He is carrying 9-7 today which "should" slow him down. That isn't why I rate him as the the danger horse. The reason is his 933 LTO at Wolverhampton. Yes the form is uncomparable in many respects but it shows ability at this distance. Plus he was running of a mark of 9-7 that day also.... He is joint top in raw projected speed with Sir G but the weight adjustment pushes his projected run down to just under 800 this time out. Seems about right.

And finally Viva Verglas who only has one comparable run of 806. Even if we expect an improvement on his LTO, a projected run of around 830 - 850 this time out still isn't enough.

That makes the overall projected ratings for this race....

Sir Geoffrey - 887
Viva Verglas - 850
Lackaday - 798
Spowarticus - 782
Monsieur Jimmy - 718

The pace analysis shows two potential early pace setters in Danish Blue and Spowarticus. Despite only having two quick starters, I see this race being run at a quick pace due to the number of chasers in the pack. Lackaday, Sir G, Viva Verglas, Monsieur Jimmy and Percy's Gal all like to chase the leader which will quicken the pace. This won't suit Spowarticus who has proven pace issues in the final furlong anyway. Expect to see him fade away 1f out.

I have respect for Danish Duke and have looked at him even closer since your post. He has been running in 7f races recently and lost them in the last furlong. That tells me 6f is likely his distance. His LTO over 7f @ Southwell was an impressive 876. However I'm hoping the high draw will not suit as it gives him 8 other horses to beat to the first bend including all the forementioned chasers above who will be off after Spowarticus. I'm hoping he gets caught mid pack and therefore rendered ineffective. I also have doubts about his fitness as he is being turned out especially quickly for this run given that he usually needs a month off after a race.

With the early pace setters neutralized, it then comes down to the speed of the chasing pack. All of the above top rated horses are drawn low and they will likely go into the bend two or three abreast. I have Sir G pinned as nearly half a second faster overall as long as he improves as per his recent form. However the race will be largely decided coming off the first bend. Coming from behind at Southwell is especially challenging and Sir G will need to be part of the chasing pack when the race shifts down a gear just over 1f out if he is to stand a chance.

That is how I see the race playing out. It will be a close run thing but I reckon Sir G (currently 8.40 on the exchange) has the best value chance.

Thanks for dropping in!

Cheers,
SIG

Good result...

 

[TONYTENCH]

well done SIG

 

[The Hare]

Hello Chesham.

Thanks for that. Looks tough to get a copy of it now. Any ideas how i can obtain one?

Thanks

Kevin

 

[Chesham]

Hello Chesham.

Thanks for that. Looks tough to get a copy of it now. Any ideas how i can obtain one?

Thanks

Kevin

I have a copy, but do not know where you can buy a copy from

 

[SIG]

Good start SIG. Intrigues by your methods.

Still haven't got round to compiling my own, very time consuming.

Chesham, I am interested in your mention of "Three Mistakes". Had a search of the interenet and can find no mention of this. Have most other books on speed figures/ratings and would be interested in reading this. Any links?

Cheers

Kevin

Cheers Hare. It is a time consuming process but nevertheless profitable past time (on days like today at least )

Cheers,
SIG

well done SIG boom boom
cheers

Cheers Cluster!

Nice result SIG well done

Cheers Graeme. Always nice to pick up a winner on the opening day....

Good result...

Cheers Roland

well done SIG

Cheers Tony

And now I discover how to multi quote... Fs!

Cheers,
SIG

 

[footstepsinthesand]

Well Done with Sir Geoffrey today SIG

 

[SIG]

23rd March 2016

Three races for tomorrow. We're avoiding the 15.05 @ Southwell and the 18.30 @ Dundalk due to the lack of comparable form.

Southwell 15.40
SLEEPY BLUE OCEAN 820
Fine 'N Dandy 872
Elusivity 887
A very tight class 4 race with a few quick starters. The lack of all weather form for over half the runners is frustrating and the pace analysis shows both Casterbridge and Henley bringing early pace to their all weather debuts if they can transfer their turf form. Fine 'N Dandy is drawn well and will want to lead but I have doubts about his stamina in the final furlong, especially in a race that will be run as quickly as this one. Elusivity is a consistently fast horse with bags of pace but I'm not sure the high draw in stall 6 will suit. That leaves only Sleepy Blue Ocean who has been the quickest round here overall recently and is drawn best in stall 1 but it very much depends what SBO turns up tomorrow. I really want to avoid this race altogether as any of the unknowns could be a threat. I think I will sleep on it and look again in the morning.

Kempton 20.15
Luis Vaz De Torres 879
UNDER SIEGE 903
Rich Again 910
Rich Again is my top rated but I don't think he will be capable of producing a 900+ performance today. He is drawn in the centre and with the pace of the runners around him, I see him being held up and not featuring in the race at all. I've found an angle into this race through Under Siege. He is a potential leader who will be looking to make a quick break from stall 7 alongside Secret Glance next door in stall 6. These two will set the pace with the likes of LVDT and Varsovian all tracking the leaders. However it isn't easy to come from behind at Kempton so Under Siege needs to get to the front early if he is to stand a chance.

Kempton 21.15
Hamis Al Bin 758
Assertive Agent 758
FIRST REBELLION 778
There is no horse even close to being as quick as First Rebellion has been recently over distance. If he can transfer that same form to the polytrack at Kempton, then this is a no contest in my eyes. Drawn in stall one, he likes to break quick and with three potential slow starters to his outside means he can the chance to get grab the rail and get ahead early. Assertive Agent and Hamis Al Bin are my joint second but the high draw won't suit either. Assertive Agent is a closer and I think he will really have it all to do to feature at the end of this. Hamis Al Bin on the otherhand will be looking to press FR the entire way and chase him down but I have doubts about his stamina in the final furlong.

Selections:
Sleepy Blue Ocean - Will confirm in the morning
Under Siege - 1.2pt Win @ BSP
First Rebellion - 1.2pt Win @ BSP

First Rebellion is my top selection of the day.

Cheers,
SIG

 

[SIG]

Updated Selections:
Sleepy Blue Ocean - 1.2pt Win @ BSP (Elusivity is the main danger but here's hoping the draw doesn't suit and the right SBO turns up)
Under Siege - 1.2pt Win @ BSP
First Rebellion - 1.2pt Win @ BSP

Good luck!

Cheers,
SIG

 

[SIG]

Am gutted I had planned to spend Thursday evening completing my assessment of the big days racing on Friday but instead I now have to work late at my actual real job.

I need to progress this part time hobby to a full time trade as soon as possible!!

 

[SIG]

Updated Selections:
Sleepy Blue Ocean - 1.2pt Win @ BSP (Elusivity is the main danger but here's hoping the draw doesn't suit and the right SBO turns up)
Under Siege - 1.2pt Win @ BSP
First Rebellion - 1.2pt Win @ BSP

Good luck!

Cheers,
SIG

Sorry, just realised the stakes are 1.11pt and not 1.2pt as stated above

Cheers,
SIG

 

[Kevinc]

Well played SIG

 

[footstepsinthesand]

Another good call SIG

 

[SIG]

Cheers boys, am particularly pleased with that one!

Cheers,
SIG

 

[NigelRG]

Well done SIG Nice 4/1 winner .

Nige

 

[Ferdy]

Well done, I am just in the process of resurrecting my ratings and have Varsovian well clear in the 20:15 Kempton.
1 Varsovian 106.17
4 Luis Vaz De Torres 101.33
6 Stellarta 100.33
2 Oriental Relation 100.00
11 Dominium 98.50
12 Honcho 98.00
10 Upstaging 97.50
8 Quintus Cerialis 96.33
9 Secret Glance 96.33
5 Under Siege 92.83
7 Rich Again 91.67

 

[Chesham]

Updated Selections:
Sleepy Blue Ocean - 1.2pt Win @ BSP (Elusivity is the main danger but here's hoping the draw doesn't suit and the right SBO turns up)
Under Siege - 1.2pt Win @ BSP
First Rebellion - 1.2pt Win @ BSP

Good luck!

Cheers,
SIG

 

[SIG]

Well done SIG Nice 4/1 winner .

Nige

Cheers Nige!

Well done, I am just in the process of resurrecting my ratings and have Varsovian well clear in the 20:15 Kempton.
1 Varsovian 106.17
4 Luis Vaz De Torres 101.33
6 Stellarta 100.33
2 Oriental Relation 100.00
11 Dominium 98.50
12 Honcho 98.00
10 Upstaging 97.50
8 Quintus Cerialis 96.33
9 Secret Glance 96.33
5 Under Siege 92.83
7 Rich Again 91.67

Interesting figures Ferdy. Based on them, Varsovian is 5 points clear on speed and got the sweet draw in stall one. That would be one for the shortlist.

In comparison I have Varsovian as my sixth fastest with a rating of 851 and with my top rated at 910, there is little to separate the top six. However if you look at Varsovian a little closer, you would almost suspect he is coming off the boil. He only gets raced once a month but each of his last five outings has been slower than the last. His LTO at Lingfield was especially slow by his standards. In addition I have him pegged as a horse who likes to track the leaders which makes me think he won't take advantage on the stall one draw. And he is running off a higher mark today than he has for a while. In fact he is the top weight in this race. I can oppose him for all those reasons.

It's also interesting that my two top rated also happen to be your two bottom rated. I have Rich Again rated at 910 - He has ran faster than any of the other runners at C&D LTO and is running off a similar mark today. I am opposing him only based on where he is drawn and how I think he will run the race.

And you have my selection Under Siege just above him - I have him rated at 903 based on his recent Chelmsford performances and reckon if he can break quick enough and get in front early, no-one is catching him. I also really like Oriental Relation who I've rated at 858 but who ran frighteningly quick LTO at Chelmsford. He is the main danger in this race but the high draw and early pace to his inside is unlikely to suit and he will have it all to do. For that reason I can oppose him this time out but he is definitely one to watch out for over this distance in the coming weeks....

Good luck with Varsovian! Will be an interesting one to watch....

Cheers,
SIG