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SIG's AW Sprint Speed Ratings

SIG

Filly
Hey all,

I've been compiling my own speed ratings and pace analysis for all weather sprint racing for quite some time now. I thought I'd start posting up my ratings and analysis, see if we can find ourselves some winners...

Southwell is on tomorrow and we have a handful of sprint distance races to have a look at. I will get my selections posted later this evening.

Thanks for dropping in!

Cheers,
SIG
 

SIG

Filly
22nd March 2016

Southwell 14:20

Lucky Mark 775
Cerulean Silk 779
Imjin River 787
MONSIEUR JAMIE 805
A tight class 6 race with a number of quick starters. One of these will be Monsieur Jamie drawn in stall 3 who is a veteran round these parts and has the potential to go very well. Imjin River, Cerulean Silk and Lucky Mark have it all to do and anyone of them poses a viable threat. Very First Blade is the main danger, drawn well and is capable of a big run depending on what VFB turns up.

Southwell 16:00

Furiant 739
Thatsallimsaying 765
Ticking Away 771
MYSTERIOUS 884
Form is sketchy on this one to say the least and it would probably be best to avoid. Mysterious looks like the only one with any appeal based on the very limited information available. A potential race leader drawn well in stall 3 and could run well. But I won't be getting involved...

Southwell 16:30
Spowarticus 782
Lackaday 798
Viva Verglas 806
SIR GEOFFREY 887
The ever improving Sir Geoffrey is a Southwell veteran. He likes it round here at this trip, is well in on the weights and even the smallest improvement on his recent form sees him as the quickest horse here. Spowarticus drawn in stall 3 looks like the early leader but he will fade in the final furlong. The biggest danger is Lackaday who went well at Wolverhampton LTO and is the only true threat along with Viva Verglas.

Selections:
Monsieur Jamie - 1pt Win @ BSP
Sir Geoffrey - 1pt Win @ BSP

Sir Geoffrey is my top selection of the day.

Cheers,
SIG
 

Chesham

Sire
22nd March 2016

Southwell 14:20

Lucky Mark 775
Cerulean Silk 779
Imjin River 787
MONSIEUR JAMIE 805
A tight class 6 race with a number of quick starters. One of these will be Monsieur Jamie drawn in stall 3 who is a veteran round these parts and has the potential to go very well. Imjin River, Cerulean Silk and Lucky Mark have it all to do and anyone of them poses a viable threat. Very First Blade is the main danger, drawn well and is capable of a big run depending on what VFB turns up.

Southwell 16:00

Furiant 739
Thatsallimsaying 765
Ticking Away 771
MYSTERIOUS 884
Form is sketchy on this one to say the least and it would probably be best to avoid. Mysterious looks like the only one with any appeal based on the very limited information available. A potential race leader drawn well in stall 3 and could run well. But I won't be getting involved...

Southwell 16:30
Spowarticus 782
Lackaday 798
Viva Verglas 806
SIR GEOFFREY 887
The ever improving Sir Geoffrey is a Southwell veteran. He likes it round here at this trip, is well in on the weights and even the smallest improvement on his recent form sees him as the quickest horse here. Spowarticus drawn in stall 3 looks like the early leader but he will fade in the final furlong. The biggest danger is Lackaday who went well at Wolverhampton LTO and is the only true threat along with Viva Verglas.

Selections:
Monsieur Jamie - 1pt Win @ BSP
Sir Geoffrey - 1pt Win @ BSP

Sir Geoffrey is my top selection of the day.

Cheers,
SIG

I think that Sir Geoffery looks opposable tomorrow, lto was racing against horses who had a lot of miles on the clock and the race was set up perfectly for him. Danish Duke might be the surprise in this race
 
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SIG

Filly
I think that Sir Geoffery looks opposable tomorrow. Danish Duke might be the surprise in this race

He is one of two runners I have little comparable form on, the other being Jarrih.

I do have him listed as a definite early leader along with Spowarticus but I'm hoping the high draw will not suit DD and Spowarticus doesn't seem to have any extra pace in the final furlong where Sir G has plenty.

Always a risk dismissing horses due to little comparable form but hard not to back a horse with an 81 point speed advantage....

Thanks for dropping in!

Cheers,
SIG
 
I also looked at the 430, If DD settles better i think it will take this race but that is a BIG IF.Jaarih is only intresting if getting an easy trip which is questionable i had that and percy's girl as the other who a possibly priced incorrectly and were to two i was most interested in from a betting point of view. The one who came out TOP of my ratings were actually Viva vergals (still CAPABLE?) this horse is thrown in on old form and i do wonder if the plan is to find a very strongly run 6f or weak 7f race when the blinkers are back on? its a funny one really. i think this is a trappy race where you could run it 10 times and get 10 different results, i will refrain from posting again because i think its hard to comment on runners that you are betting without the numbers you are using to make the selection so i will leave you with wishing you the best of luck and hope you bag two nice winners and continue to have great success.


Also its great you are sharing your findings with others :welcome:
 

SIG

Filly

My speed ratings on that day adjusted for weight....

SIR GEOFFREY 616 6F S
SPOWARTICUS 675 6F S
MONSIEUR JIMMY 718 6F S

Sir G was just over half a second off the pace. However if you compare the bigger picture...

Since that race, Sir G has ran a 722 and a 833 over the same C&D. Infact, Sir G's last four runs here read, 582, 616, 722 & 833 (LTO). He is running off a lower mark that his last two runs (8-9). If he continues to improve at his current rate, a projected run of 887 this time out seems about right.

Spowarticus's best performance at C&D recently was 775. However his last three runs here read, 775, 426 & 675 (LTO @ Southwell). He ran an 840 LTO at Wolverhampton but that form is uncomparable. Running off a lower mark today (8-13), a projected run of anywhere between 700 and 800 is possible. Playing it safe at 782 this time out seems about right.

Monsieur Jimmy has only had the one comparable run recently when he ran his winning 718. We should expect an improvement so a projected run of 743 this time out seems about right.

The only other two horses worthy of consideration....

Lackaday has ran the quickest around here at 845 on his last trip around Southwell. However that run was over three months ago and was off a mark of 8-5. He is carrying 9-7 today which "should" slow him down. That isn't why I rate him as the the danger horse. The reason is his 933 LTO at Wolverhampton. Yes the form is uncomparable in many respects but it shows ability at this distance. Plus he was running of a mark of 9-7 that day also.... He is joint top in raw projected speed with Sir G but the weight adjustment pushes his projected run down to just under 800 this time out. Seems about right.

And finally Viva Verglas who only has one comparable run of 806. Even if we expect an improvement on his LTO, a projected run of around 830 - 850 this time out still isn't enough.

That makes the overall projected ratings for this race....

Sir Geoffrey - 887
Viva Verglas - 850
Lackaday - 798
Spowarticus - 782
Monsieur Jimmy - 718

The pace analysis shows two potential early pace setters in Danish Blue and Spowarticus. Despite only having two quick starters, I see this race being run at a quick pace due to the number of chasers in the pack. Lackaday, Sir G, Viva Verglas, Monsieur Jimmy and Percy's Gal all like to chase the leader which will quicken the pace. This won't suit Spowarticus who has proven pace issues in the final furlong anyway. Expect to see him fade away 1f out.

I have respect for Danish Duke and have looked at him even closer since your post. He has been running in 7f races recently and lost them in the last furlong. That tells me 6f is likely his distance. His LTO over 7f @ Southwell was an impressive 876. However I'm hoping the high draw will not suit as it gives him 8 other horses to beat to the first bend including all the forementioned chasers above who will be off after Spowarticus. I'm hoping he gets caught mid pack and therefore rendered ineffective. I also have doubts about his fitness as he is being turned out especially quickly for this run given that he usually needs a month off after a race.

With the early pace setters neutralized, it then comes down to the speed of the chasing pack. All of the above top rated horses are drawn low and they will likely go into the bend two or three abreast. I have Sir G pinned as nearly half a second faster overall as long as he improves as per his recent form. However the race will be largely decided coming off the first bend. Coming from behind at Southwell is especially challenging and Sir G will need to be part of the chasing pack when the race shifts down a gear just over 1f out if he is to stand a chance.

That is how I see the race playing out. It will be a close run thing but I reckon Sir G (currently 8.40 on the exchange) has the best value chance.

Thanks for dropping in!

Cheers,
SIG
 

SIG

Filly
I also looked at the 430, If DD settles better i think it will take this race but that is a BIG IF.Jaarih is only intresting if getting an easy trip which is questionable i had that and percy's girl as the other who a possibly priced incorrectly and were to two i was most interested in from a betting point of view. The one who came out TOP of my ratings were actually Viva vergals (still CAPABLE?) this horse is thrown in on old form and i do wonder if the plan is to find a very strongly run 6f or weak 7f race when the blinkers are back on? its a funny one really. i think this is a trappy race where you could run it 10 times and get 10 different results, i will refrain from posting again because i think its hard to comment on runners that you are betting without the numbers you are using to make the selection so i will leave you with wishing you the best of luck and hope you bag two nice winners and continue to have great success.


Also its great you are sharing your findings with others :welcome:

I agree, it'll be one of those races! lol I hope the above post gives you some insight into my figures and the angle I tried to find in the race.

Good luck with your selection!

Cheers,
SIG
 

cluster

Filly
Sir is a more 5f horse and today with all the pace i thing very hard race for him.
SIG can you explain please 887=? speed fig .
gl with your selection and welcome on this forum.
cheers
 
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Chesham

Sire
Sir is a more 5f horse and today with all the pace i thing very hard race for him.
SIG can you explain please 887=? speed fig .
gl with your selection and welcome on this forum.
cheers

I stated earlier that I thought Sir G was opposable in this race, good point C cluster, LTO was not a fast race and fast horse win slow races, which would have suited Sir G, also like I said earlier , the competitors were mostly an old bunch, Sir G is 10 and the runner up was 11. Today Sir G is back up to Class 5 and has to carry a 6 lb penalty.

Tricky Race, there are runners with better Timeform Speed Figs, Sir G is 6 lbs below Lackaday on Adjusted Speed and 17 lbs to find on unadjusted. There is also a horse whose sectional time indicates they are better than their LTO performance.

I hope you prove me wrong with Sir G SIG SIG and a :text-goodpost: From you whatever happens. Your Speed Numbers are different, they look more like Three Mistakes without stripping back to a more recognisable figure. Ie shove Decimal point in and you have

Projected

Sir G 87
VV 85
 
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SIG

Filly
Sir is a more 5f horse and today with all the pace i thing very hard race for him.
SIG can you explain please 887=? speed fig .
gl with your selection and welcome on this forum.
cheers

Thanks for the welcome.

The 887 figure is my projection on what the horse is capable of running today adjusted for weight. Sir G ran a 582, 616, 722 & 833 (LTO) all over 6f distance at Southwell. This clearly shows he is improving all the time. In addition, the last two runs were off a higher mark than today so therefore we should expect him to run quicker. His raw speed figure adjusted for weight puts him at a projected 887.

Hope that helps explain the figure....

Cheers,
SIG
 

SIG

Filly
I stated earlier that I thought Sir G was opposable in this race, good point C cluster, LTO was not a fast race and fast horse win slow races, which would have suited Sir G, also like I said earlier , the competitors were mostly an old bunch, Sir G is 10 and the runner up was 11. Today Sir G is back up to Class 5 and has to carry a 6 lb penalty.

Tricky Race, there are runners with better Timeform Speed Figs, Sir G is 6 lbs below Lackaday on Adjusted Speed and 17 lbs to find on unadjusted. There is also a horse whose sectional time indicates they are better than their LTO performance.

I hope you prove me wrong with Sir G SIG SIG and a :text-goodpost: From you whatever happens. Your Speed Numbers are different, they look more like Three Mistakes without stripping back to a more recognisable figure. Ie shove Decimal point in and you have

Projected

Sir G 87
VV 85

It is a tricky race and to be honest, there are two or three angles into it I could have taken all of which would have produced a different selection.

I'm not sure I follow your three mistakes comment? I agree that my numbers are a bit different but it's an approach that has been working well and I hope will prove itself on here over the next few weeks.

Will be an interesting race no matter what happens. Sir G is now at 12/1 on the exchange so here's hoping!

Cheers,
SIG
 

Chesham

Sire
It is a tricky race and to be honest, there are two or three angles into it I could have taken all of which would have produced a different selection.

I'm not sure I follow your three mistakes comment? I agree that my numbers are a bit different but it's an approach that has been working well and I hope will prove itself on here over the next few weeks.

Will be an interesting race no matter what happens. Sir G is now at 12/1 on the exchange so here's hoping!

Cheers,
SIG

The Three Mistakes was a Book on Compiling Speed Ratings, not suggesting that you are making three mistakes with your speed figs


On the Inner Sanctum I email Raw Speed Ratings (No Weight Factored In) and Members can adjust them to weight and add their own going allowance.

I have attached the File for Sir G's last run

With regards to the Race today, it has plenty of Conflict VV ran a much faster class par, Lackaday the fastest fig, but was not recorded on The Beach, although 2nd LTO at Southwell was up with the others today. Then there is DD who ran a sectionals that indicate the Speed Fig is likely to be under rated
 

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SIG

Filly
The Three Mistakes was a Book on Compiling Speed Ratings, not suggesting that you are making three mistakes with your speed figs


On the Inner Sanctum I email Raw Speed Ratings (No Weight Factored In) and Members can adjust them to weight and add their own going allowance.

I have attached the File for Sir G's last run

With regards to the Race today, it has plenty of Conflict VV ran a much faster class par, Lackaday the fastest fig, but was not recorded on The Beach, although 2nd LTO at Southwell was up with the others today. Then there is DD who ran a sectionals that indicate the Speed Fig is likely to be under rated

Ah, never heard of it! lol Thanks for the figures, I would post mine up but they are a mess of formulas and not at all presented in a legible logical format like yours.

I agree it is an open race and as I said before, I had an angle into the race for each of the top three. You have made me consider DD much more closely as I had dismissed him for the most part (translating 7f figures to sprint distance is still something I am working on). I still think it will be won coming off the bend and I only hope Sir G has positioned himself ideally for the run in.

Good luck and thanks for dropping in!

Cheers,
SIG
 

Chesham

Sire
Well Done SIG SIG, Proved me wrong about SiR G, rode a front running race and a gutsy performance to surrender the lead and then get back up :clap::clap::clap:
 
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Well done SIG SIG :)

funny old race none of us could get right as to how it was going to be run, Viva would have won for even a half decent trip but with nothing on i am happy you got the winner :)
 
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SIG

Filly
Well done SIG SIG :)

funny old race none of us could get right as to how it was going to be run, Viva would have won for even a half decent trip but with nothing on i am happy you got the winner :)
Well Done SIG SIG, Proved me wrong about SiR G, rode a front running race and a gutsy performance to surrender the lead and then get back up :clap::clap::clap:

Cheers Ches - Great start to the campaign!

Monsieur Jamie - :( 5th @4.79 BSP
Sir Geoffrey - :) 1st @ 14.00 BSP

Unlucky run from Monsieur Jamie who just ran out of steam on the drive home but man, what a 16.30 at Southwell that was! I thought VV had it at the end until Sir G stuck his head back in front!

+12pts profit for the day :D

Cheers,
SIG
 
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The Hare

Yearling
Good start SIG SIG. Intrigues by your methods.

Still haven't got round to compiling my own, very time consuming.

Chesham Chesham, I am interested in your mention of "Three Mistakes". Had a search of the interenet and can find no mention of this. Have most other books on speed figures/ratings and would be interested in reading this. Any links?

Cheers

Kevin
 
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