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Selections in the style of Van Der Wheil

Hi Jack

Difficult race as Emjayem is likely to be involved in a pace dual, which could suit Vallarta who is down in class. Not a race that I would bet in.

Very Positive Stats for Emjayem with regards owner (Relative of the Trainer)



Mrs J McMahon Turf Owner Stats

Filter: Bath


3 wins from 3 runs (100.0%), 4.55 A/E, Profit of £84.38 (2812.7%)




Archie

Score = 10.65 (Not reliable as only a small sample)





Good Luck

Chesham
 
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Late today, been nursing the dog who is unwell, got to ge your prioritie right.

Lost yesterday 6pts (£60), debit 17, bank 192.25pts. Picked the wrong one of the possibles, just eliminated Marmalady the only filly coming off the polytrack and drifting in the market, could have been quids in.

Chepstow 3.40
Full Of Joy up 4lbs, mistake challenged led clear jumped left stayed on won 1 of 6 +5L Bangor 24f 0-135 G.
Brassick dropped 12lbs, keen prominent5 went 2nd challenged led no impression 2 of 5 -2.25L Southwell 24f Good.
Polisky dropped 18lbs, weakened four fur out 7 of 8 well behind Newton Abbot 16f 0-120 GF.

The selection is Brassick 7pts (£70) bet.
 
Brassick, my Chepstow 3.40 selection was 2nd but I didn't have much confidence in it owing to the fact I had sectioned the OR:

Positives.
1. 135 6/1 won Pantxoa
2. 132 16/1
3. 128 2/1
Neutral
4. 125 6/1 3rd Gas Line Boy
5. 125 7/1
6. 125 4/1 2nd Brassick
7. 120 8/1
Negative
8. 109 100/1
 
the live betting showed it to be a classic 'filthy' betting opportunity,I couldn't imagine 3 getting past and earnt a cheap bottle of Aussie red for the place.
Hope your dog is on the mend,they don't ask much and can be great mates :drinks:
 
Hi Jack



MlRobs Tables came good in this Race ( I did not bet in the race) When I use my class ratings on the Flat I always use the LTO Adjusted Figure

These are MlRobs Tables using the LTO Figure

Screen Shot 2013-10-01 at 18.01.25.png

Using Class Ceiling Pantxoa, won LTO and is down 13 lbs in class having disposed of


Timeform Perspective Comment for LTO



A useful handicap chase, in which 2 progressive types came to the fore, the reassessed runner-up unfortunate to run into one under a penalty. PANTXOA (FR) is going the right way over fences now and followed up his Stratford win, under a penalty and in a better race; led, quickened 4 out, found extra when challenged; likely to go well again, with the valuable handicap at Market Rasen next month an option.

NH Racing is not something I have followed for years but I can see from this race that the data may be just as viable when presented in this format.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Chesham, thank you, interesting as ever.:clap:
Hayzee, the dog is an eighteen month old Jack Russell, name of Patch although I call him Doggo, and usually as nutty as a fruitcake :lolsign:, but ate something that knocked him flat. He is a dead ringer for Harvey from the TV commercial and treats me as if I am his butler, anyway he is back to his exhuberant best this morning, bouncing off the furniture since half six.
Enough of that, sad to say I am going to draw a veil over the present trial and move on again. Only a small sample to be sure but it doesn't seem to be going anywhere really interesting and I am getting bored with doing it :(. So I thought I would really go back to basic basics where we started:

“Taken step by step and starting with the principal meeting the agenda is:
1. Select the most valuable race on the card
2. Consider the next most valuable race.
3. Select most valuable race from other cards.
4. Rate entire field for ability.
5. Select most consistent from the first 5 or 6 in the betting.
6. Apply selected racing method to entire field.

I am going to omit 4. and 6. so really down to the bare bones and cover all possibles by dutching so long as the odds are viable.

Races considered today: Salisbury 3.55, 4.30. Nottingham 4.40. Newcastle 2.10, 2.40.
Deleted the 4.30 not viable, 2.10, 2.40 both maiden stakes.

Possibles for dutching Salisbury 3.55 Nabucco, Mister Impatience, Noble Gift.
Nottingham 4.40 Loved One, Defiant Spirit, Saigon City.
 
when reading ..narrow the field to gain winning strip..is there a play on words which may set you of in the wrong direction?
 
He says one phrase that I feel could be read in a different way, and would be obvious if looked at like this:
" If we add the last three placings of the respective horses IN THE BETTING FORECAST we have a numerical picture"

Could this not read like we need to add the positions in the betting forecast together?

It would certainly make you wonder how on earth you missed it!

People would say what can this achieve but as Chesham has spoken many s time about SP to runner ratio
there may be more to it.

Or he could use the betting for consistensy- either way he definately
was adding something to the numbers shown in the Erin.

Also if reading the sentence this way he does not say the last three placings such as 1st, 2nd, 3rd, but juat the last three placings in the forecast so could the consistent horses come from there last run alone? Such as in the Roushayd tables he orders the runners in LTO placing alligned with LTO class.

Also if you look at the Pegwell bay table in the same way, what do you see?
The same thing , Pegwell bay has the best LTO form.

I am not sure how this would be worked but it has been something that I noticed and once read like that stands out even more in my opinion.

Thanks for asking that question Enoch!
 
i have never used ...better than expectation as i like to call it only form figures and average distance won/lost as a mark of consistency.work shifts and cant always post up but would like to run with this on here if people dont mind
 
Hope I'm not speaking out of turn here and have only read this last page just now (a forum cardinal sin more than likely!) but when formtheory talks about three placings in the betting forcest, are you saying this means there positions in the market for their last three races. So a horse that was favourite for its last three races would score a 1, 1, 1 = 3?
 
In some ways I suppose he was but I do not think the same.

One thing I know is the market position is used.

When you read the phrase he gives it could certainly reads like that, and as we know, the figures given are different from the last 3 placing s with a couple of the runners.

I don't know, like I said I just find it interesting!

Take care
Paul.
 
ok i know from the start that this race is not the best to start with but just to get started with this

5.15 goodwood

these horses are from racing post betting and placed in ability order may have needed to use speed figures as ability rating but go with this to get started

thomas hobson............48...............4..........4...........+0.25............100
mutajazif......................45..............12.........13.........+5.41.............35
lady pimpernell............42...............5..........8...........+6.41.............51
squire osbalston............27..............4...........9...........+1.16..............27

glorious protector.........25...............5...........6..........+0.41...............41
empress adalaide..........25..............12..........8...........+2.58...............25
quest for more..............25...............5...........11..........+1.58..............37


column 1 =ability
colm 2 =expectation in betting
colm 3 = cons
colm 4 = average distance won/beat
colm 5 = lto class of race by finishing position

looking at this race the class dropper is the horse to look at i think thomas hobson with an expectation of 4 and a consistency of 4 ,been in and around the finish with a average win/beat of +0.25 and coming out of the best race LTO i know its a 3-y-o race but im of and lets see where this goes...Les
 
ark royal was only looking at this through betting expectation i think thomas hobson can beat it 3fav expectation so win and loaded place

is there an excuse for a 5l beating lto?

pulled early but its the winner and co fav i,ll look at,how did it win that race

made all
travelling best,best entering final 3f
readily drew clear on bit over 2f out
in no danger after
very easy
not extended

thats battalion winner of thomas hobsons lto he had to give it 7lbs and pulled early
see if it encounters one like that today
 
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RE "
" If we add the last three placings of the respective horses IN THE BETTING FORECAST we have a numerical picture"

The Betting Forecast is Pre Race and Returned SP of a Race is Post Race and are totally different. I don't think he was keeping the Sporting Papers from their last three races to check what their position in the Pre Race Betting forecast was.

I don't read anything into this statement other than on the day of the race you look at the respective horses in the Betting Forecast and add their last three form figures.

Quote: Calculating the three most consistent horses by adding together the last three placings from the first five (Non Handicaps) and the first six (Handicaps), centres attention where it is positively alive with winners

When making these calculations, it is necessary to use a little judgement. Basically it is a simple addition of the last three form placings.

The word is simple

VDW did mentions odds as a means of Listing Horses to follow, Mtoto corrected me in respect that the horse should have a Minimum Speed Figure, (Which I can accept as VDW did mention adding horses from the current season to the previous years list) The Two examples were Bin Shaadad and Vague shot and the proviso for adding to a list for the present season was that they should have been from the two highest Prize Races (From Memory I think it was Handicaps as I don't have the Systematic Betting Booklet in front of me) and you listed the first two home provided they were in the first 3 of the returned Sp Market. Mtoto thinks that SP Filter, may have been to reduce the number of horses getting on to the list and that may be a correct assumption but I think it was suggested because the Form is going to be more reliable from such races, especially as The Speed Figure element that Mtoto says is an importing part of the Listing stage indicates that the race was run at a decent average pace overall, going by the final time.


With Ahoy VDW mentions Little interest in the market when he ran in the April 1988 race and finish 6th. I take that to mean that no more was to be expected from him Class/form wise going into this particular race and that the Market Interest was a confirmation of this.

Also I noted that Form of some VDW examples had an element the SP Market featuring in a more positive light with regards to the reliability of Form, based on First Three in the Betting as a proviso for adding Stray Shot and Bin Shaddad to the list.

Please forgive me If there are any inaccuracies in the list below these are the ones that I noted when using the form books and if there is an error it is not with any intention to mislead anyone.

I started with the Wing and A Pray, Cool Gin, Righthan Man, Beau Ranger, Stray Shot and Zamandra example because they were also top on ability and came before the Roushayd example.


Righthand Man LTO won Fav, the horse who came 2nd Why Forget LTO was dropping in class against Righthand Man Won and was Favourite in that race


Beau Ranger LTO Won the horse who came second Classified LTO had won and was 6/4 Favourite in that race


Wing And A Prayer LTO won the horse who came 2nd Free Flow was dropping in class against Wing And A Payer and hadbeen Favourite in that race.


Cool Gin LTO won LTO the horse who came 2nd Hello Killeny was Dropping in Class against Cool Gin and had been Favourite in his LTO race


Stray Shot 2nd LTO the horse who won Warner For Leisure was Favourite in his LTO race


Zamadra won LTO and was Favourite the horse who came 2nd Antiguan Moon had been in the same race has Zamandra in his LTO race in which Zamandra came 2nd to Jockamel who was dropping in class and was Favourite


Next I looked at some of the other examples from Roushayd booklet.


Roushayd beaten by Billet. In his LTO race Billet won and was Favourite in that race.


Zilzal won LTO the horse who came 2nd Green Line Express won LTO was 3/1 2nd fav and had beaten the odds on Favourite.

The horse who came 3rd to Zilzal Markofdistinction had won LTO and was odds on favourite.


Braashee won LTO the horse who came 3rd to Braashee & Cossack Gaurd was Shoot ahead who had won LTO and was Favourite


Pipstead won LTTO the horse who came 3rd Kribensis had won LTO 2nd fav and had the fav in 2nd place


Three Tails was dropping in class and LTO had finished 3rd to Unite who LTO had won and had the fav behind in 2nd


Finally, Wayward Lad


Wayward Lad was 2nd LTO gave 8lbs and was beaten by Earls Brig (The odds on fav )was 3rd)who last time out had finished 3rd behind Wayward Lad gave 4lbs who was a Favourite

I suppose that a numerical picture of some description could be made from the data above, but I have not bothered to do that, I know that Bin Shaddad had finished in one of the Highest Class races on the day,, Doncaster, goes on the List in March, a listed race Class 113 after finishing 2nd and was in the first three in the betting and that some of the VDW examples have a positive slant with regards to the horses and SP featuring positively when looking at the Form.


Prior to being placed to win, Bin Shaddad in his last race had been 10/1, 3rd in a Class 118 and the two horses in first and second were in the First Three of the SP Market


Bin Shaddad is then dropped in class 48 and wins

Roushayd in The Northern Dancer the First two home were also one of the first 3 in the SP Market


I am not saying that this is in every VDW example, its is just an observation of the Odds being positive that may be right or wrong. It is not something that I wish to argue a case over, if someone says thats wrong well thats ok I can accept a different view point and that perhaps it is a rubbish theory. It is just something that I consider when looking at the strength of LTO form when analysing a race about to be run. VDW says when everything lines up and for me this is just one component that lines things up for me and gives me more confidence that the form is reliable. The Horse still has to be placed correctly to win and some trainers are more adept at that than others. Probably why VDW suggest getting to know Trainers as they were the coach driver and if they don't know where they are going there is no hope for the rest of us.

Good Luck

Chesham






 
One aspect which always intrigues me RE Trainers,i often wonder how many of them put the same effort into a race as us form readers.Not only for their own entry but also the opposition.I understand they will be busy people but this should be a priority use of time.?
 
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