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Selections in the style of Van Der Wheil

enoch said:
he say,s LAST 3 PLACINGS not last 3 form placings,which leaves us where
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Hi Enoch

In SIAO

The Heading is FIRST FIVE IN BETTING and he clearly states Simple addition of last three Form Placings, later a few paragraphs down he demonstrates how to add the last three Form Placings Together and that beyond 9, anything else counts as 10. Quote VDW i.e, 3-16-4 = 17 (3+10+4) The figure in Brackets is to show that 16 should be a 10

Good Luck

Chesham
 
With Regards the 5.15

Difficult race with lightly raced types who have decent breeding and a good enough reason for me not to trust my own ratings in this race

EMPRESS ADELAIDE Ryan Moore has switched from Evangelist (Non runner)

Looking back through the Dams Family and the following show up

Sinndar

Akiyda

Baldric

Lomond

Seattle Slew

Ferdinand

Banja Luka

Natashka

Ajina

Nedawi


SQUIRE OSBALDESTON another with excellent breeding

Looking back through the dams family

Mtoto will love this one

To Agori Mou

St Paddy

Psidium

CarollHouse

Only For Life

Brigadier Gerard

Unite

Love Divine

Briasn Boru

Vinatge Crop

L’Express

Indalecio

Workforce


I Will enjoy seeing how they perform today

Good Luck

Chesham
 
thomas hobson beat LTO by battalion described as a blot on the handicap gave 7lbs battalion fave and winner the previous race


vintage crop is one of my fav horses along with pebbles

as i said at the begining it a 3-y-o handicap so its a small bet and place only 1/4 i,ll watch with interest
 
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the 4.50 muss

top 6 in the betting by sporting life betting in ability order

wannabe king...........76...............19.........20...............8.08..............64
enderby spirit............75...............20.........21..............18.16..............62
iptisam......................64...............7............4..................0.................64
zacythans..................52..............16...........27................5.73.............16
misplaced fortune......51..............14..........11.................1.83.............111
silver rime..................47..............22...........21................6.66.............9
skytrain......................45..............5.............10...............3.16..............20
sound advice..............35...............14..........14...............4.50..............111
chookie royal.............33...............18...........21...............9.25..............19
frontier fighter...........32...............7............15................2.83...............47

colm 1 = ability
colm 2 =expectasion
colm 3 =cons
colm 4 = average win/lose
colm 5 = ability of last race by finishing order

at first i thought i would have a single selection iptaisam but after looking further its a dutch
iptisam.....top 4 ability good expectation and consistency been in and around at the death last 3 races coming out of a good race looks like its improving

misplaced fortune...only one of 3 horse who matched its expectation and has a goodish average win/lose distance and a class dropper beaten by a big class dropper lto good form lto

sound advice.. matches his expectation and a class dropper and C/D winner

if pushed it would be misplaced fortune win and loaded place because of its LTO form but i,ll go with the dutch if i can

dutched these 3 for a 1/1 shot
 
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Many moons since I last posted in this thread, having been invited onto another board. Alas it has become rather predictable with long lists of possible selections being posted and not a great deal of discussion to go along with them - all very polite, genteel and no controversy. So I looked in here where I used to get a good kicking in the form of constructive criticism :prankster:.
This is my version of the 'elementary mechanical procedure'.

Carlisle (going forecast G)
4.00 Market expected 09.30 nos - 2, 3, 6, 7, 8 was indicating a win restricted to these.

2. 5* 8 (my rating) Asiduous Alexander 5/1 early, LTO 46, same weight, same class. D. (Hanagan up) Has to prove it has trained on. Best Topspeed 83.
3. 2* 2
4. 1* 1
5. 0
6. 6* 13 Bletchley 13/8, LTO 23, up 6lbs, up 2 grades? D. Win LTO sets the standard. (Becket 15/Murphy). Best Topspeed 88
7. 2* 1
8. 2* 3
9. 2* 2
10. 0
11. 0

Comment: Bletchley is forecast as a very strong favourite and may be a touch short, being up in weight but coming from a class 3 to a listed Race. Assiduous Alexander has three duck eggs in front of its name and is not well drawn at 9. I quite like Isabel's On It 15/2 early for a place with reasonable consistency compared to this field (Haggas 27), outside draw?
 
My VDW assessments are only based on my view of the 'elementary mechanical procedure' and do not go into the realms of Roushayd. To that end I check the Flat turf cards daily, class 1 to 4, looking for a race with a high percentage of winners in their last three outings in the short odds division of the market.

Newbury (going forecst GF)
7.25 Market expected 08.35 nos 1, 4, 5, 9, 11, 12 was indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 3/1, contender 6/1, not expected longer that 12/1.

1. 4* 6 Hollywood Road 11/2 early, LTO 17, up 15lbs? same class, D3. Won LTO going suits would not want rain. Best Topspeed 65
2. 1* 2
3. 1* 3
4. 4* 6 Boycie 13.2, LTO 14, +10lbs? same class, D2. Hannon 24/7lb claimer up so weight could be a factor, ran well LTO. Best Topspeed 77
5. 2* 1
6. 2* 4
7. 1* 1
8. 3*4
9. 3* 6 Sporting Times 7/2, LTO 16, up 1lb, up 1 grade, could improve, Dunlop/Muscatt OK past fortnight. Best Topspeed 71
10. 0
11. 4* 8 Pilgrim's Treasure 7/2, LTO 21, dropped 2lbs, Appleby 23/Doyle 3. Won maiden LTO on soft, open to improvement. Best Topspeed 67.
12. 0
13. 0

Comment: May not be easy as there is no strong consensus amongst the pundits. I would take Pilgrims Treasure over Sporting Times with the draw, or dutch them. Neither of them are supported by two sets of ratings.
 
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My assessments have not been going well, perhaps put down to the general easing of the ground, so trying an amended version of the 'elementary mechanical procedure', as advised by VDW for the Flat using SF ratings instead of two form ratings. Jaust a class 4 at Doncaster, whereas the race with the best winning for % is the Newmarket 8.30 class 2, but I have done that elsewhere and thought - UAE Prince, Al Neksh.

Doncaster (going forecast S)
4.30 Market expected 08.50 nos 1, 2, 4, 5, 8 was indicating an open race (Incus not considered out of the long hcap). Theoretical strong fav 6/4, contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1.

1. 3* 3
2. 3* 5 Fire Jet 4/1 early, LTO 12, up 1lb, same class, 14f win last month.
3. 2* 3
4. 2* 2
5. 6* 10 Itlaaq 11/2, LTO 14, dropped 11lbs*, same class, C&D2. Won this in 2016 on a fair mark if on a going day.
6. 1* 1
8. 4* 8 Braes Of Lochalsh 5/2, LTO 7, up 2lbs, down 1 grade, C&D. Goldie/Mooney 7lb claimer OK past fortnight. Close last week and could be better here.
9. 0

Comment: They have to get the D on the going so weight could be a factor. Braes Of Lochalsh and Itlaaq would be my two.
 
I sometimes feel that I am trying too hard with the VDW 'elementary mechanical procedure' and take a step back by looking through my hard copy file of cuttings from the period. Here are some extracts from correspondence to Sports Forum dated March 18, 1980,'Flying Dutchman believes in consistency'.

"Initially I submitted a method based on two factors with which individuals may or may not agree. First, consistent horses win a high percentage of races and second, the first five or six in the betting forecast contain a high percentage of winners. The two factors combined narrow the field down to an area of prospective winners, but they are not the only ones......Ever Optimistic has also observed some trends in particular types of races and here readers may deduce why I prefer better-class events."

"Returning to consistent horses, readers may care to add together the last three placings of each horse in every race down the card and review the findings considering the type of race etc. They may also care to do the same with the position in the betting forecast of each winner."

"In my last letter (Aug 25, 1979 'Speed is no use without form' NOTE THE TIME LAG) I outlined a method that can be employed in conjunction with these two factors which in themselves do not by any means cover all desirable aspects. The combination of both methods does provide an area worth investigation."

"A great deal of emphasis appears to be placed on my methods of rating, but there is no mystery about them. I have said, because so much importance seems to be placed on them, that ratings are not the 'be all and end all' but should be used as a guide................Test any set of ratings yourself and you will find a certain percentage top rated winners and indeed, it is wise not to stray from the top five or six when when selecting wagers................It does not have to be top-rated to be a sound wager, the combination all factors and study of the form and ratings can show a consistent horse to be out of his depth, as for instance Billbroker in the St Leger, and equally Son Of Love was a good thing in the same race."

"Readers who rely on ratings may deduce that by taking the top five or six rated and coupling them with the five or six most consistent horses in the field they will trap a lot of winners. Try it and you will find it interesting. In non-hcaps I suggest sticking to the top four rated ."
 
Right, without trying too hard then
grin.png
.

Pontefract (going forecast good)
3.00 Market expected 10.00 nos 5, 7, 8 was indicating a win from these. Theoretical strong fav 7/4, contender 7/2, not expected longer than 7/1.

Headings for columns: cloth no, consistency rating, Formcast/RPR (top 3 starred)

1. 25 - 76*/96*
2. 25 - 75/98*
3*. 16 - 75/96*
4. 20 - 74/91
5*. 14 - 76*/98* Partitia, Stoute/Buick
6. 12 - 75/91
7*. 9 - 76*/93 The Feathered Nest. Fahey/Hanagan
8*. 7 - 78*/94* Love Oasis. Johnston

Comment: Just considering the early market expected Love Oasis and Partitia are the those to consider.
 
Chesham Chesham, I get the feeling that you post tongue-in-cheek regarding VDW.

Try the simple approach again.


Hamilton (going forecast GS)

3.30 ME 09.00 nos 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8 was indicating an open race. Theoretical strong fav 5/2, contender 5/1, Not expected longer than 10/1

1*. 18 - 77/106*
2*. 7* - 77/102
4. 22 - 77/102
5*. 5* - 77/101
6*. 3* - 76/104
7*. 7* - 76/106* Weekend Offender 11/4 early
8*. 18 - 77/105*
9. 17 - 77/105*
10. 30 - 75/100
11. 26 - 74/99
13 16 - 75/101

Comment: Weekend Offender currently forecast a strong fav.
 
Jackform said:
Chesham Chesham, I get the feeling that you post tongue-in-cheek regarding VDW.

.
Click to expand...

That is where VDW (Gordon Hall ) was living in Market Harborough :handgestures-thumbup:

Weekend Offender does look well handicapped from LTO Race. George William was BHA 90 and is now BHA 98

G K Chesterton was BHA 89 and is now BHA 99

Nicholas T is Top on Class Ratings, has the Draw and pace set up

Weekender is still on the same mark and has a few Future Form Entries. I was a bit concerned about the lay off but the Trainer Reports all is well and goes well fresh.

The going is an unknown as it is soft

The John Smiths Cup is the target for this horse and todays race will condition him for that race. The Trainer needs a good performance to get this ones BHA Rating up as he wants to get the horse into the John Smiths Cup and needs to be sure that the horse will make the cut

Shame about the Going as Nicholas T is top on my class ratings, The Trainer Rating is good and improved between 10 and 5 days, the horse has the pace set and draw. Again, This Trainer needs a good performance to get this ones BHA Rating up as he wants to get the horse into the John Smiths Cup and needs to be sure that the horse will make the cut

A race to swerve for me with the Going being soft
 
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Race 4 - 3:30pm.
THE ALMADA MILE HANDICAP STAKES (CLASS 2)

The Stewards noted that MASHAM STAR (IRE), trained by Mark Johnston, wore earplugs which were removed at the start.

The Stewards held an enquiry to consider why Tom Eaves, the rider of WEEKEND OFFENDER (FR) had been slow to remove the blindfold resulting in the gelding being slow to start and was subsequently pulled up. They interviewed the rider and the Starter. Having heard their evidence and viewed recordings of the start they noted the rider’s explanation that WEEKEND OFFENDER (FR) had got its leg caught on the stalls running board just as the race was started, resulting in the gelding coming out of the stalls awkwardly with the blindfold still on. Eaves further added that he considered it prudent to pull up WEEKEND OFFENDER (FR) in case any injury had been sustained. The Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of the gelding failed to reveal any abnormalities. The Stewards deemed WEEKEND OFFENDER (FR) to be a runner.
 
Just testing the original basic 43-year-old VDW principles for something to do :prankster:.

Warwick (going forecast Chs S with some Hvy, Hdl Hvy with some S - showers)

12.55 Sage Advice, Cabot Cliffs
1.30 Overworkedunderpaid, Clondaw's Answer
2.00 Hunny Moon, Ballycallan Fame
2.35 Another Emotion, The manuscript
3.05 Zambella, Annie Mc
3.40 Morning Spirit, Spirit Of waterloo
4.10 Highway Jewel, Back bar
4.40 Miss Heritage, Sir Valentine
 
Back on this thread again after about 18 months with something slightly different, which may be of some interest - hopefully :). Looking through my photocopies from from the original Sport Forum around 44 years ago, although they are getting rather tattered now along with myself, what follows interested me. You may think why could that be better than just reading through the Tony Peach booklets, well for me it's the timeline when the information was published that is of value. In this case it is a review of the previous two years by VDW.

Flying Dutchman Believes in Consistency (Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book, March 13, 1980)

Quote; 'Initially I submitted a method based on two factors with which individuals may or may not agree. Fist, consistent horses win a igh percentage of races and second, the first five or six in the betting forecast contain a high percentage of winners. These two factors combined narrow the field down to an area of prospective winners , but they are not the only ones.'

'If you compare two private handicaps for instance , thay can differ to an alrming degree. without going into the reasons for this, I do not wish to imply that ratings have no value, but I do subscribe to the view that they must be couple with other aspects to have a worthwhile meaning.'

'Readers who rely on ratings may deduce that by taking the top five or six rated and coupling with the five or six most consistent horses in the field they will trap a lot of winners. Try it and you will find it interesting. In non-hcaps may I suggest sticking to the top four rated'.

Goodwood (today) (going forecast G - GF watering) RP verdict Breaking Light (3 pundits agree 8 oppose)
5.20 Market expected 08.45 no's 3, 4, 6, 7, 12, 13 in dicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 11/4, contender 11/2, not expected longer than 11/1.

Columns: RPR/VDW consitency rating

1. 97* - 24 (125/1 mkt)
2. 95* - 24 (12/1)
3*. 99* - 21 (10/1)
4*. 94 -
5. 95* - 16 (18/1)
6*. 96* - 12* (9/2) Crystal Caprice 4 tips (D). LTO 20 +2lbs +2cls? same jck. 1/5 +7L led went clear riddenhardran on well. M Stoute rates 16.
7*. 95* - 14* (17/2) System. LTO 17 +2lbs =cls same jck. 2/10 -nk made challenge led hung right kept on headed hung right.
8. 93 -
9. 96* - 12 (16/1)
10. 94 -
12*. 94 -
13*. 95* - 10* (7/2) Breaking Light 4 tips. LTO 11 =lbs +1cls? H Doyle up today. 1/7 +2 1/4L ridden headway to lead soon clear readily.

Comment: That's my attempt at applying the advice. Looks difficult on paper with the RPR being close and with fillies you never know if their heads are right on the day. Go with the crowd on Crystal Caprice and Breaking Light.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
CRYSTAL CAPRICE got off the mark in impressive fashion at Yarmouth on her third outing earlier in the month and the daughter of Frankel makes plenty of appeal on her handicap debut. Breaking Light took a big step forward when scoring at Haydock and a 5lb rise is unlikely to stop her from being competitive. System was just denied when upped to a mile at Ascot and she is capable of being in the mix along with Flash Betty, who is of interest dropping in grade.
Top Tip: CRYSTAL CAPRICE (6)
Watch out for: BREAKING LIGHT (13)
 
S Sandhog, this is what I call my GoPro method as it is mainly relying on the RPR to deliver the goods, although it is from an idea by Van der Wheil originally. I have just embelished it :dance2: (I reckon I could market this at a pinch as it's better than a lot I have seen).

Goodwood (goin forecast GF - G watered) RP verdict BP (11 pundits oppose)
2.10 Market expected 09.15 no's 2, 4, 8, 10, 12, 13 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 3/1, contender 6/1, not expected longer than 12/1.

10. Cem 1 tip 109/9 (9/2 mkt). LTO 43? +3lbs, =cls H Doyle up. 7/18 -10L? short of room twice ridden and kept on final furlong.
12. HMS President 111/15. LTO 22 +5lbs =cls R Moore up. 14/16 -45L? briefly led stumbled nearly lost jockey soon eased talied off.
13. Bague D'Or 4 tips 115/4. LTO 21 -10lbs +1cls? same jock. 1/6 +hd. In touch led going easily ridden kept on strongly just did enough

Comment: Dutch 10.and 12 for me. Plenty of top class yards taking part so we shall see.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
The Johnston stable has been responsible for the winner of this on four occasions since 2015 and can come out on top again courtesy of SOAPY STEVENS, who stopped Red Flyer springing a massive shock at Newmarket's July Festival, with Sam Cooke hot on their heels in fourth. Fellow hat-trick seeker Bague D'or looks a stayer going places, while Cemhaan failed in his bid for a three-timer at Royal Ascot but still emerged with credit. Valley Forge and Trawlerman appeal too.
Top Tip: SOAPY STEVENS (4)
Watch out for: BAGUE D'OR (13)
 
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