tafflizgreg
Colt
cheers
Selections in the style of Van Der Wheil
- Thread starter Jackform
- Start date
chilled
Yearling
Jackform
Mare
Late today owing to gardening duties - wife says no gardening, no eating 
Lost yesterday 3pts (£30), debit 6, bank 198.5
Newmarket 3.15 (100% winning form in the field)
Ihtimal - same weight, hard held quickened challenged lead quickened clear impressive won 1 of 7 +2L Doncaster 12f GS.
Rizeema - dropped 4lbs, ridden stayed on to lead won 1 of 7 +3/4L Curragh 7f GF
A toss up but Ihtimal is the selection for a 4pts (£40) bet
Lost yesterday 3pts (£30), debit 6, bank 198.5
Newmarket 3.15 (100% winning form in the field)
Ihtimal - same weight, hard held quickened challenged lead quickened clear impressive won 1 of 7 +2L Doncaster 12f GS.
Rizeema - dropped 4lbs, ridden stayed on to lead won 1 of 7 +3/4L Curragh 7f GF
A toss up but Ihtimal is the selection for a 4pts (£40) bet
Chesham
Sire
Turn up for the book yesterday. Lost 4pts (£40), debit 11pts, bank 194.5pts.
3.10 Newmarket
Elusive Kate up 2lbs, 7 of 13 -10L Deauville 8f GS.
Sky Lantern up 2lbs, headway no room no extra 5 of 14 -4.75L Goodwood 10f G.
The bet is Sky Lantern 5pts (£50) bet.
Well Done Jack
Good Luck
Chesham
Chesham
Sire
Did not get home over the extra distance, was going smoothly then ran out of petrol
Good Luck
Chesham
Jackform
Mare
Thanks for all the interest but any plaudits are due to VDW as I am only trialling his ideas 
.Sky Lantern won 7/4 x 5pts (£50) = +8.75pts, debit 4pts (rounded up from 3.75), bank 203.25pts.
I usually have a day off on Sunday with no Formcast rating available but I have gone with RPR/Stopwatch today, being on a roll, having had a winner
. Considered the Epsom 3.55 being the best of the top grade races on UK mainland but couldn't find a slection in it or the the other two races. In the end I opted for the Epsom 5.30 with 60% winning form.Epsom 5.30
Lunar Deity dropped 2lbs, ridden headway stayed on no threat 2 of 8 -2.75L Beverley 7f 0-85 GF.
Lunar Deity 5pts (£50) bet.
Chesham
Sire
Sky Lantern won 7/4 x 5pts (£50) = +8.75pts, debit 4pts (rounded up from 3.75), bank 203.25pts.
I usually have a day off on Sunday with no Formcast rating available but I have gone with RPR/Stopwatch today, being on a roll, having had a winner
Epsom 5.30
Lunar Deity dropped 2lbs, ridden headway stayed on no threat 2 of 8 -2.75L Beverley 7f 0-85 GF.
Lunar Deity 5pts (£50) bet.
Hi Jack
I think Lunar Deity will find life difficult in this class ceiling
EPSOM DOWNS Monday, 26 August 2013 GOOD to SOFT
5.25 Ewell Handicap (4) (Turf) 1m 114y
£10,000 0-80 (3yo+)
Handicap mark of top weight 78
Lunar Deity won off BHA 77
Today
5.30 COLLECT totepool WINNINGS AT BETFRED SHOPS HANDICAP (4) 7f (Round)
Handicap mark of top weight 92
Lunar Deity 83
Lunar Deity Looks like a False Favourite
Good Luck
Chesham
formtheory
Stallion
Hi Chesham,
Would you consider laying horses of this type?
My book has not arrived yet, from the posts you put up regarding his book (Braddocks) you mention 3 probables, does he work in that way too?
Hope your ok,
Take care
Paul.
Would you consider laying horses of this type?
My book has not arrived yet, from the posts you put up regarding his book (Braddocks) you mention 3 probables, does he work in that way too?
Hope your ok,
Take care
Paul.
Chesham
Sire
Hi Paul
No I don't lay but if you think there is a false Forecast favourite, then there might be value if you can find an alternative. In this race there are plenty of alternatives to the favourite so a race to leave alone.
Peter Braddock does reduce the field to two or three probables and then picks from these for a Single Bet. If you have ordered the 2004 edition you will be able to study the examples to see if you agree with him as the Form is easy to access via Racing Post or whichever Form book that you use.
Good Luck
Chesham
DuckandDive
Mare
I remember reading that one. Local library could source a copy if not on their own shelves.
I didn't recognise the full importance of the book as my head was wrapped around the David Duncan betting system books. Then realised the internet was picking up pace and discovered Adrian Massey...etc.
Will try and grab another copy at some time.
Jackform
Mare
Hi Chesham,
Appreciate the comments - and here is something you quoted before from Braddock:
"A horse when raised in class has to improve upon its known ability and form.
A horse in the same class has to reproduce form equivalent at least to what it has shown in that class
A horse lowered in class has merely to repeat its normal level of ability as shown in the higher class to have a winning chance.
Class, therefore, in the selection assumes a negative, neutral or positive character."
In any hcap subtracting the bottom weight from the top weight then dividing the result by 3 gives three sections as above. In the case of the Epsom 5.30 6lbs indicating:
Nos 1 - 4 lowered in class.
Nos 5 in the same class.
Nos 6 -15 raised in class.
If the above is correct the two runners I would be interested in are Kyllachy Rise and Lunar Deity as they are positives in this race.
Appreciate the comments - and here is something you quoted before from Braddock:
"A horse when raised in class has to improve upon its known ability and form.
A horse in the same class has to reproduce form equivalent at least to what it has shown in that class
A horse lowered in class has merely to repeat its normal level of ability as shown in the higher class to have a winning chance.
Class, therefore, in the selection assumes a negative, neutral or positive character."
In any hcap subtracting the bottom weight from the top weight then dividing the result by 3 gives three sections as above. In the case of the Epsom 5.30 6lbs indicating:
Nos 1 - 4 lowered in class.
Nos 5 in the same class.
Nos 6 -15 raised in class.
If the above is correct the two runners I would be interested in are Kyllachy Rise and Lunar Deity as they are positives in this race.
Chesham
Sire
Hi Jack
It is a 3Y-O Plus so using the Lbs Range is not the same as if it was a 4 Y-O Plus
Example
Kamchatka BHA =80 is a 3 Y-O if he was a 4 Y-O he would be set to carry more weight than Iptisam BHA = 78 but Kamchatkais carrying less weight. You would be better using the BHA Ratings for your calculation
Good Luck
Chesham
It is a 3Y-O Plus so using the Lbs Range is not the same as if it was a 4 Y-O Plus
Example
Kamchatka BHA =80 is a 3 Y-O if he was a 4 Y-O he would be set to carry more weight than Iptisam BHA = 78 but Kamchatkais carrying less weight. You would be better using the BHA Ratings for your calculation
Good Luck
Chesham
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Jackform
Mare
Hi Chesham,
Yes, I had considered that idea before, thank you for reminding me. It's not strictly a VDW topic but it is another way to 'narrow the field', in fact a little like the VDW Aldaniti example for the National, as I recall. Any way rehashing the Epsom 3.35 yesterday it looked like this:
Nos 1 - 5 positive.
Nos 6 - 14 neutral.
No 15 negative.
Yes, I had considered that idea before, thank you for reminding me. It's not strictly a VDW topic but it is another way to 'narrow the field', in fact a little like the VDW Aldaniti example for the National, as I recall. Any way rehashing the Epsom 3.35 yesterday it looked like this:
Nos 1 - 5 positive.
Nos 6 - 14 neutral.
No 15 negative.
Chesham
Sire
Hi Jack
Eric Bowers developed a method to reduce handicap races with 10 runners or more down to a short list of contenders.
I have uploaded an old example for you. 4.15 Nottingham race, 15th April 2008
Take the horse with the highest OR and deduct the difference between the next horse in the handicap. Crosstar is top rated by the handicapper so is on 0 in the difference column, i.e Kiwi is on 79 so 80-79 = 1.
Now work down the list. Never Catcher is on a difference of 11.
Now add the RP forecast to the number in the difference column, i.e. Kiwi Bay Differeence 1 + F/C 16/1 = 17 in the ratings column.
Now sort from lowest to highest as above and discard those below the 50% mark ie 18. Anything below 18 is discarded and the remaining runners with stars are the one to concentrate on.
Eric Bowers reasoned that you are combining two experts, The RP Forecast compiler and the Offical Handicapper to help you compile a short list.
Combine the Shortlist with Your Own Ratings
Good Luck
Chesham
Eric Bowers developed a method to reduce handicap races with 10 runners or more down to a short list of contenders.
I have uploaded an old example for you. 4.15 Nottingham race, 15th April 2008
Take the horse with the highest OR and deduct the difference between the next horse in the handicap. Crosstar is top rated by the handicapper so is on 0 in the difference column, i.e Kiwi is on 79 so 80-79 = 1.
Now work down the list. Never Catcher is on a difference of 11.
Now add the RP forecast to the number in the difference column, i.e. Kiwi Bay Differeence 1 + F/C 16/1 = 17 in the ratings column.
Now sort from lowest to highest as above and discard those below the 50% mark ie 18. Anything below 18 is discarded and the remaining runners with stars are the one to concentrate on.
Eric Bowers reasoned that you are combining two experts, The RP Forecast compiler and the Offical Handicapper to help you compile a short list.
Combine the Shortlist with Your Own Ratings
Good Luck
Chesham
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Jackform
Mare
Lost yesterday 5pts (£50), debit 6pts, bank 198.25pts
Monday again, my life's slipping away
. Looked at the Newton Abbot but got 5 qualifiers from the 7 runners so swerved that one, although according to the OR the only 'positive' in the race is Fairyinthewind. Opted for the Bath 4.30 instead:
Vallarta, up 11lbs ridden headway stayed on 2 of 11 -neck Newmarket 6f 0-85 Good.
Marmalady (filly?) dropped 5lbs, made all took keen hold clear kept on won 1 of 7 +2L Kempton, polytrack.
Emjayem, up 1lb made all pushed out comfortably won 1 of 4 +1L Bath (here) Firm.
The selection is Emjayem 6pts (£60) bet.
Just for interest, sectioning the OR indicated:
Nos 1-6 positive
No 7 neutral
Nos 8-10 negative
I thought nos 2 and 6 out of it on price leaving nos 1, 3, 4, 5 to consider.
Monday again, my life's slipping away
. Looked at the Newton Abbot but got 5 qualifiers from the 7 runners so swerved that one, although according to the OR the only 'positive' in the race is Fairyinthewind. Opted for the Bath 4.30 instead:Vallarta, up 11lbs ridden headway stayed on 2 of 11 -neck Newmarket 6f 0-85 Good.
Marmalady (filly?) dropped 5lbs, made all took keen hold clear kept on won 1 of 7 +2L Kempton, polytrack.
Emjayem, up 1lb made all pushed out comfortably won 1 of 4 +1L Bath (here) Firm.
The selection is Emjayem 6pts (£60) bet.
Just for interest, sectioning the OR indicated:
Nos 1-6 positive
No 7 neutral
Nos 8-10 negative
I thought nos 2 and 6 out of it on price leaving nos 1, 3, 4, 5 to consider.
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