D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
To Date
Bets 134 .. Won 25 ... EP +37.05 / SP +0.24
Bets 134 .. Won 25 ... EP +37.05 / SP +0.24
Sunday 18th August
3.55 Southwell - Path To Dubai 10/1 Lost (2nd) / Destinado 16/1 Lost / Seal Of Soloman 16/1 Lost
Bit of a rarity for me going triple handed , but i just get the feeling looking at the race that a bigger priced runner is gonna land the spoils and looking through them i think theres three that could possibly go close at decent prices .. First one of those is Path To Dubai who made his re appearance after having been gelded last time and was plum last but im hopeful of a better showing here today , specially as hes back here at Shuvvel where he has run his best races to date , indeed landed the sole win of his career and as hes only had five outings to date its much to soon to be scuppering his chances just because of a couple of bad runs. Runs off the same mark when he was second here and doesnt look badly drawn. James Tate is a shrewd trainer and he does well when coming here with a 26% strike rate overall , and this season he has a 40% strike rate along with a profit of +£12.75. Jockey Clifford Lee gets the leg up for the first time , has an 18% strike rate in the past two weeks and when coming here he has a respectable 16% strike rate. Destinado is my second choice , not at his best lately but is now down to his last winning mark and im hoping for a better showing here this afternoon , has had a busy year with six wins from seventeen runs which isnt a bad ratio by anyones standards , and the fact he usually runs well here (two wins and four places from ten runs overall , but has won over todays CD) did catch my eye and made me think that maybe the trainer has brought him here for a reason. James Owen has been having a decent season and Darragh Keegan is booked to ride the horse for the first time and hes been in the winners enclosure a few times lately with a 23% strike rate in the last couple of weeks and when teaming up with the trainer over the last three weeks they have a 25% strike rate. Lastly top weight Seal Of Soloman who has had a poor season thus far , finishing nearer last than first in all four runs but the previous year he'd notched two wins and a second from his five runs , the fact that hes had wind surgery makes me think that hopefully the trainer has got to the bottom of the issue of the poor form this term and that a better run may well be on the cards today. A 2lb drop and a drop in grade will hopefully spark an improvement as well , hes placed on his sole start here and if he can get back to anything like last years form then he can go close at a decent price i think (hope !). Probably tilting at windmills with these three but i think on a going day all three could play a part in the finish.
5.25 Southwell - Hard Solution 16/1 Lost
Gonna side with Hard Solution in this in the hope that he doesnt blow the start and runs as well as hes capable of. Has won off much higher than todays mark and though hes the oldest in the line up i think on a going day he can make his presence felt at a fair price. One from one over CD and to my eye doesnt look badly drawn. Ruth Carr can pull one outta the bag when she wants to and im keeping my fingers crossed that today is one of those times lol .. James Sullivan in the driving seat and hes won and placed on the horse and i think hes worth a shot to nothing at the price in a race of this nature.
Hey Sean, looks like you've seen the 1st race at York (from your Grade 1 post).... what a race that is, I'm going struggle picking a horse - it's full of forum favourites - Copper Knight 20/1 and Jordan Electrics 16/1 - plus Vintage Clarets, Looking For Lynda, Holkham Bay, Pilgrim, Jm Jungle, Desert Cop, Tees Spirit - all of which have won at big odds and most of them at York previously, sick.
I've got to have a double with two of my favourite horses - Jordan Electrics 16/1 (13:50 - Pays 6 or 7) + Star of Lady M 11/1 (16:45 - Pays 4 or 5)
I've just put a 'place-holding' bet on for it - just so I can re-use and put it back on later quicker with more money - so far £0.37 E/W = £80.45, will be a good return if it hits.
Friday 23rd August
1.50 York - Euchen Glen 14/1 Lost (5th)
Well once again Euchen Glen finds himself being the oldest horse in the field but once again i say hes no back number and the fact that Jim Goldie sends just this one on the long shlep from East Renfrewshire makes me think that has to have a chance in this as hes a shrewd trainer and wouldnt bother sending the horse down if he didnt think he stood a chance. Was a sound fourth last time , not beaten far , and has generally been running well this season so far and i cant see any reason why he shouldnt be making his presence felt once again. One from one over todays CD and has two wins and two places from his eleven runs at the course overall. Paul Mulrennan in the saddle and he knows the horse inside out with nine wins and ten places under his belt , has a 15% strike rate in the last three weeks , and when teaming up with the trainer over the same period they come away with a 21% strike rate.
7.35 Hamilton - Digital 10/1 Lost / Moonstone Boy 5/21st 9/2
Going for a couple in this one , firstly Moonstone Boy who is a winner without a penalty so has to be of interest in my book , and is technically 7lb well in here so has to have a major chance i reckon , beat Strong Johnson by 2 1/2 lengths over this evenings CD and if in the same sort of form today then he should go very close to following up i think. Won and placed in his two starts over CD , hasnt won a class 3 as yet but has placed in three of his four races in that class so definatley not written off because of that. Draw looks decent enough to me and i just cant see him being far away come the business end of things. Digital is one of two Ruth Carr runners in this (and i wouldnt write off her other runner tbh , Reigning Profit) and as ive said before i rate her as a trainer and you certainly cant write her runners chances off imho. Digital does well here with two wins and a place from four runs over CD , and has been running well enough this season specially here at Hamilton. Has won from higher than todays mark and i think a decent run could well be on the cards at a decent price.
3.35 York - Starlust 20/1 Lost (3rd) / Bradsell 11/21st 3/1
Open looking race where a couple catch my eye , first one is Bradsell whose looking to improve on his third last year , and he comes into the race on the back of a decent win lto , winning a listed race over in Deauville , hopefully that will have him spot on for this. Has has yet to be unplaced here at York with a win and a third , as already stated the place was over todays CD in this race last year. Hasnt done much racing so i think there could be more to come and a good showing wouldnt come as a surprise imho , has won two of his four races over todays distance and placed in a further one , proven himself at the trip , the course and in the class and looks decently drawn to me so im hoping for a big run this afternoon. Archie Watson sends just this one to the meeting , 14% strike rate in the past fortnight , and Hollie Doyle booked to ride , shes been in decent form of late with a 13% strike rate in the last three weeks , and when she and the trainer have combined their talents over the last 21 days they have a 41% strike rate. The other one that catches my is Starlust , whose only raced over the minimum four times to date resulting in a couple of wins and a third , and though he has now lost to Big Evs twice over this trip im hopeful that he can turn that around today and come out ahead. Two from two over CD , and won nicely over CD in his penultimate race , beating Rogue Lightning by a length and a half in the listed City Walls Stakes. Ralph Beckett been in decent form lately with a 23% strike rate in the last couple of weeks and when sending his runners here this season he has a 21.7% strike rate along with a profit of +£5.37. The inform Rossa Ryan in the hot seat and hes having a good season overall imho , has a 20% strike rate in the last two weeks , and when partnering the trainer over the last three weeks they have a 25% strike rate. At the price i think hes worth a go.
Tuesday 27th August
5.10 Musselburgh - Kinetic 6/41st 13/8 / Freddie Robinson 11/2 Lost (2nd)
The more i look at this race the more im convinced its between two horses , so im backing both in the hope that ive got it right .. first one of those is Kinetic who arrives in fine fettle and in search of a three timer , and given the way shes won the last twice you certainly couldnt discount her chances here despite the 6lb penalty , first of those wins came at Windsor when she decimated the field by 7 1/2 lengths , she went in at the next time of asking (last time out) , beating Advent Rules by a 3 length margin at Wolverhampton so obviously in good form and i think it'll take a good un to lower her colours here. Shes only had three starts for James Owen so far , winning two of them and coming second in the other , her debut for the stable , trainer sends just this one to the meeting and hes been having a great season so far , and over the last couple of weeks he has a 23% strike rate and hes won with his last three runners , which incidentally have all been ridden by up n coming claimer Sean D Bowen whose proving to be solid value for his 3lb claim , and hes up for the first time on the horse. Has a 40% strike rate in the last fortnight and when he and the trainer have teamed up over the last three weeks they come away with a 37% strike rate. If theres a horse that could prove to be a fly in the ointment i think its Freddy Robinson who has been running well since coming back after a break - 4,3,1,2,2 and i can see no reason why he shouldnt be making his presence felt again here this afternoon. Beaten a nose the last twice testifies to the fact hes in good form and im hopeful of another decent showing here at what i consider decent odds. Gets in here off the same mark as his last run and it caught my eye that his lto conquerer , Lincoln Rockstar , went in again on his next run , as did the fourth home , Glasses Up , so it could be that that was decent form. Placed on sole start over CD he usually runs well when coming here with a win and two places from his five runs at the course overall. Brian Ellison has just this one here today and he has an 11% strike rate at the course overall. Jockey Ben Robinson in the plate and hes won and placed on the horse before and as i say i am hopeful of a decent run here.
Missed a couple of winners yesterday (Showtime Mahones and Nemov) but avoided three losers as well so swings and roundabouts would of come out ahead though so a bit miffed . Same problem today like the look of a few but just not confident enough to back them .. Zambezi Magic / City Escape (4.25 Ffos Las) , Indian Romance (3.40 Chelmsford) , Dandys Angel (4.50 Carlisle) .. see if ive made the right decision to give em a miss .. also Lunarscape and Questionable in the 3.25 Ffos Las , though i cant see past these two for the win , at the prices im hesitant as its a trappy looking little race and im happy enough to leave that particular one alone.
Another blank day for this thread , was tempted by Bama Lama in the opener at Ffos Las but theres a couple of negatives as well as two or three others in the race who i would be seriously worried about (hope it wins fortrecelyn though) .. Druisilla caught my eye in the 3.40 but not 100% about his chances tbh .. Same applies to The Crafty Mole (4.50 Thirsk) not confident enough .. lastly theres three races where i cant whittle em down to one or two runners .. 6.10 Fontwell - My Gift To You / Cape Vidal / Jigginstown King / Bolintea .. 3.15 Thirsk - Brazen Bolt / Tinto / Makanah .. 2.45 Thirsk - Cerulean Bay / Diamondonthehill / Woodstock / Persuasion .. anyways another day off , though already looked at tomorrows and there could well be a bet or two on the cards from what ive picked out so far