Seans Selections

[Deleted member 7256]

No luck yesterday , John Kirkup managed second , gotta say disappointed with Mutanaaseq though. Quintus Arrius ran a stormer , not beaten far in fifth and backed down to 4/1 , would of been a nice one if that had gone in considering the early price. Bit miffed as i did say i passed on 2/3 others and from those two went in , so once again , winners went begging , i gotta do these ones i really have !

Anyways , nowt for today , see what Thursday brings to the table

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Saturday 14th September

2.25 Doncaster - Aberama Gold 20/1 / Albasheer 10/1 / Shagraan 15/2
Gone for three in the Portland , but its wide open as far as im concerned and i could of easily gone for more , but im hopeful of decent runs from the selections. Top weight Albasheer was a decent enough second last time , beaten a nose by Democracy Dilemma at Beverley in a listed race , if in the same sort of form i think he can go close here. Has won and placed on his two visits here and has won over todays distance , ground should be no issue and though the draws probably not ideal im hopeful of a big run. Archie Watson has just this one at the meeting and hes been going well lately with a 17% strike rate over the last couple of weeks , and when sending his runners here this season he has a 22.2% strike rate along with a profit of +£18.50 , Hollie Doyle gets the leg up and she knows the horse well having a 50% strike rate on him (win and place) .. 4 wins and 3 places from 14 rides to date , she too has been amongst the winners with a 15% strike rate in the last two weeks and when teaming up with the trainer over the last three weeks they have a 26% strike rate. Shagraan is my second selection , been in good form this term and has won two of his last three races , last time beating Jer Batt by 1/2 length in a class 2 at Haydock , the re opposing American Affair was back in third and i think theres a fair chance that he can confirm those ratings this afternoon. First time at Donny but i cant see any reason why he shouldnt run his race , also the first time booking of Rossa Ryan catches my eye , been having a good season so far and has a 19% strike rate in the past fortnight , and has a 15.4% strike rate here over the last five years alongside a profit of +£19.88 , Michael Appleby has his stable in good order , 21% strike rate over the last couple of weeks and this trainer / jockey partnership won the race last year with Annaf. Lastly Aberama Gold who catches my eye off a lowly weight , usually does well when coming here with a win and four places from his six runs over CD and two wins / four places from seven runs at the course overall. Going isnt an issue and looks decently berthed to me and i think he can go close in this. David O'Meara is a dab hand in these big field sprints and he won this race back in 2012 , comes into this with a 21% strike rate in the last two weeks and when coming here this term has a 19.5% strike rate. Mark Winn in the plate and hes won on the horse before , im very hopeful of a decent run at a decent price.

2.40 Chester - Emiyn 13/2 / Tashkhan 13/2
Going for last years first and second in the hope that they can emulate last years result , Emiyn was second in this last year and im hoping that he can go close again at a course he does well at , placed in both starts over CD , he has decent figures overall at the course with three wins and four places from his seven outings. Was a decent third last time at Haydock and before that was beaten 3/4 length by Zoffee , who re opposes again today but i think he can turn that form around today , in the Chester Cup. Wont mind the ground and as long as hes still in the same sort of form then i see him putting in a big run. Zak Wheatley in the saddle and he seems to get on well with the horse with two wins and three places from his eight rides to date , should be in the mix. Tashkhan won the race last year and although hes been in woeful form since coming back from a lay off back in June i can see him going well in order to retain his crown here especially now the ground is on the heavy side. One from one over CD , Brian Ellison sends just this one to the meeting and he has a 23% strike rate over the past twenty one days , Ben Robinson in the hot seat and he has a 21% strike rate over the same period and when the pair combine over the last three weeks they come away with a healthy 35% strike rate.

4.05 Chester - Paddy The Squire 11/2
A few of these look to hold decent chances but i like the look of Paddy The Squire for this , came back from a 354 day lay off (and wind surgery) and ran a stormer to come second to Theoryofeverything at Hamilton last time out , only beaten a short head and given that run will have blown the cobwebs away im hoping that he can get his head in front here this afternoon. Only had seven runs to date , and though hes only won one of those he usually runs a sounf enough race - 4,12,2,2,1,2,2 .. so a pretty consistent sort and has run well on soft before , although im not 100% about heavy going as his 12/12 came on heavy , but i am hopeful of a decent race and he deserves to get his head in front. The winner of his last race has gone in again since so the form looks decent and i think he'll be there or thereabouts come the business end of things.

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Saturday 14th September

2.25 Doncaster - Aberama Gold 20/1 Unplaced / Albasheer 10/1 Unplaced / Shagraan 15/2 Unplaced
Gone for three in the Portland , but its wide open as far as im concerned and i could of easily gone for more , but im hopeful of decent runs from the selections. Top weight Albasheer was a decent enough second last time , beaten a nose by Democracy Dilemma at Beverley in a listed race , if in the same sort of form i think he can go close here. Has won and placed on his two visits here and has won over todays distance , ground should be no issue and though the draws probably not ideal im hopeful of a big run. Archie Watson has just this one at the meeting and hes been going well lately with a 17% strike rate over the last couple of weeks , and when sending his runners here this season he has a 22.2% strike rate along with a profit of +£18.50 , Hollie Doyle gets the leg up and she knows the horse well having a 50% strike rate on him (win and place) .. 4 wins and 3 places from 14 rides to date , she too has been amongst the winners with a 15% strike rate in the last two weeks and when teaming up with the trainer over the last three weeks they have a 26% strike rate. Shagraan is my second selection , been in good form this term and has won two of his last three races , last time beating Jer Batt by 1/2 length in a class 2 at Haydock , the re opposing American Affair was back in third and i think theres a fair chance that he can confirm those ratings this afternoon. First time at Donny but i cant see any reason why he shouldnt run his race , also the first time booking of Rossa Ryan catches my eye , been having a good season so far and has a 19% strike rate in the past fortnight , and has a 15.4% strike rate here over the last five years alongside a profit of +£19.88 , Michael Appleby has his stable in good order , 21% strike rate over the last couple of weeks and this trainer / jockey partnership won the race last year with Annaf. Lastly Aberama Gold who catches my eye off a lowly weight , usually does well when coming here with a win and four places from his six runs over CD and two wins / four places from seven runs at the course overall. Going isnt an issue and looks decently berthed to me and i think he can go close in this. David O'Meara is a dab hand in these big field sprints and he won this race back in 2012 , comes into this with a 21% strike rate in the last two weeks and when coming here this term has a 19.5% strike rate. Mark Winn in the plate and hes won on the horse before , im very hopeful of a decent run at a decent price.

2.40 Chester - Emiyn 13/2 Unplaced / Tashkhan 13/2 Lost (3rd)
Going for last years first and second in the hope that they can emulate last years result , Emiyn was second in this last year and im hoping that he can go close again at a course he does well at , placed in both starts over CD , he has decent figures overall at the course with three wins and four places from his seven outings. Was a decent third last time at Haydock and before that was beaten 3/4 length by Zoffee , who re opposes again today but i think he can turn that form around today , in the Chester Cup. Wont mind the ground and as long as hes still in the same sort of form then i see him putting in a big run. Zak Wheatley in the saddle and he seems to get on well with the horse with two wins and three places from his eight rides to date , should be in the mix. Tashkhan won the race last year and although hes been in woeful form since coming back from a lay off back in June i can see him going well in order to retain his crown here especially now the ground is on the heavy side. One from one over CD , Brian Ellison sends just this one to the meeting and he has a 23% strike rate over the past twenty one days , Ben Robinson in the hot seat and he has a 21% strike rate over the same period and when the pair combine over the last three weeks they come away with a healthy 35% strike rate.

4.05 Chester - Paddy The Squire 11/2 Lost (3rd)
A few of these look to hold decent chances but i like the look of Paddy The Squire for this , came back from a 354 day lay off (and wind surgery) and ran a stormer to come second to Theoryofeverything at Hamilton last time out , only beaten a short head and given that run will have blown the cobwebs away im hoping that he can get his head in front here this afternoon. Only had seven runs to date , and though hes only won one of those he usually runs a sounf enough race - 4,12,2,2,1,2,2 .. so a pretty consistent sort and has run well on soft before , although im not 100% about heavy going as his 12/12 came on heavy , but i am hopeful of a decent race and he deserves to get his head in front. The winner of his last race has gone in again since so the form looks decent and i think he'll be there or thereabouts come the business end of things.

 

[Deleted member 7256]

To Date
Bets 172 ... Won 32 ... EP +27.53 / SP -3.80

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Wednesday 18th September

3.55 Sandown - Windcrack 11/4 / Crystal Casque 16/1
Gone for a couple in this one , firstly Windcrack who arrives on the back of a 2 length win over this afternoons CD , that was only her second handicap start and only her second start at a mile (the other being on her debut when she came third) , back to this CD again today i can see a decent run being on the cards as she was probably value for further than the official 2 lengths. Andrew Balding been in decent form over the last three weeks with a 17% strike rate , Oisin Murphy in the driving seat and he has ridden the horse three times resulting in figures of - 3,4,1 , has an 18% strike rate in the past three weeks and when riding for the trainer over the same period they have racked up a 16% strike rate and over the last five years he has a 17.6% strike rate when coming her to ply his trade. Shouldnt be far away. The other one i like is Crystal Casque , werent seen at her best last time when only 5th at Ascot but before that has run well in defeat the last twice , coming second at Sandown over CD and then third at Goodwood. Given her course form i couldnt honestly write her chances off here as she seems to do well when coming to Sandown , over CD she has raced seven times resulting in a win and four places and at the course overall she has two wins and five places from twelves runs. Has won from higher marks than todays and the fact that she comes into this looking well weighted gives me hope of a big run. Class , going and draw are all okay and i think she can go well at a decent price. Oliver Searle back in the saddle today and he seems to get on well with the horse with four wins and five places from his 22 rides to date. Does well when coming here with a 16.7% strike rate over the last five years.

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Wednesday 18th September

3.55 Sandown - Windcrack 11/4 1st 10/3 / Crystal Casque 16/1 Lost (3rd)
Gone for a couple in this one , firstly Windcrack who arrives on the back of a 2 length win over this afternoons CD , that was only her second handicap start and only her second start at a mile (the other being on her debut when she came third) , back to this CD again today i can see a decent run being on the cards as she was probably value for further than the official 2 lengths. Andrew Balding been in decent form over the last three weeks with a 17% strike rate , Oisin Murphy in the driving seat and he has ridden the horse three times resulting in figures of - 3,4,1 , has an 18% strike rate in the past three weeks and when riding for the trainer over the same period they have racked up a 16% strike rate and over the last five years he has a 17.6% strike rate when coming her to ply his trade. Shouldnt be far away. The other one i like is Crystal Casque , werent seen at her best last time when only 5th at Ascot but before that has run well in defeat the last twice , coming second at Sandown over CD and then third at Goodwood. Given her course form i couldnt honestly write her chances off here as she seems to do well when coming to Sandown , over CD she has raced seven times resulting in a win and four places and at the course overall she has two wins and five places from twelves runs. Has won from higher marks than todays and the fact that she comes into this looking well weighted gives me hope of a big run. Class , going and draw are all okay and i think she can go well at a decent price. Oliver Searle back in the saddle today and he seems to get on well with the horse with four wins and five places from his 22 rides to date. Does well when coming here with a 16.7% strike rate over the last five years.

 

[Deleted member 7256]

To Date
Bets 174 ... Won 33 ... EP +29.28 / SP -1.47

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Saturday 21st September

5.15 Ayr - Euchen Glen 14/1
Well old faithful is running again and im keeping the faith ! In all honesty he hasnt been running badly considering his age and the fact that he does so well here gives me hope of a decent run , the last time he ran here at Ayr , back in June , he won , over todays CD , beating Baileys Khelstar by half a length in a class 2 handicap and as ive said his record round here is second to none with three wins from four runs over CD , and five wins and four places from eleven runs at the course overall. Has won from higher marks than todays and class , going and draw all look okay to me eye. Paul Mulrennan in the saddle and he knows the horse well with nine wins and ten places from his 55 rides aboard him , 17.1% strike rate in the last four weeks and has a 20% strike rate when riding here this term along with a small profit of +£5.75. Trainer Jim Goldie has a 19% strike rate over the last three weeks and has a 14.3% strike rate when bringing his runners here this season. When the trainer and jockey have teamed up over the past three weeks they come away with a 28% strike rate. As i say given the course/distance form and the price i couldnt let him go unbacked.

3.20 Newmarket - Equiano Springs 12/1 / Spring Bloom 17/2
A few of these come into this looking as though they could go well but im gonna side with a couple of decently priced ones who i hope can outrun their odds and upset the principals. First one of those is Equiano Springs who loves it here at Newmarket with a CD record of three wins and a place from four runs , and the fact that hes won three of the last five renewals of this race hasnt gone un noticed either (and was third to Abate in last years race). Could only manage eleventh last time but back here at a course and a race he clearly loves i think he'll be a totally different proposition and at the price i think hes well worth a pop. Has won off higher than todays mark and the going shouldnt be an issue and he looks adequatley berthed. Tom Tate has just this one out today and he does well when sending them here with a 36.4% strike rate over the last five years alongside a profit of +£13.83. Hector Crouch in the hot seat for the first time and he has a 19% strike rate in the last three weeks. The other one i like is Spring Bloom who comes into this in decent fettle , won two races before coming sixth last time out , but a solid effort in defeat only being beaten a length to Good Earth. In one of those wins he beat my other selection , a head and 3/4 length , and i dont think there will be much between the two today and im hoping that it will be these pair fighting it out come the line. Placed on only start over todays CD he s won once and placed twice in his four starts at the course overall. Benoit De La Sayette takes the ride and hes one from one on the horse to date and this is his only ride of the day. At the price i think hes worth a go.

4.45 Chester - Dreams Adozen 5/1 / Corsican Caper 9/2
Open looking race but a pair that particularly interest me are the ones im going with in the hope that one of them can oblige , Dreams Adozen is the first one , been in good form lately with three seconds in his last four races , those seconds all came here at Chester and he usually runs a sound race when coming here with a CD record of a win and a place from three runs and two wins and five places from eleven runs at the course overall , so couldnt honestly write his chances off when racing here and you honestly cant write a Johnston horse off over these sort of distances. Yet to win off a mark this high but has gone close off slightly lower and given his recent form i'd say it shouldnt prove to much of a problem. Archie Young in the saddle for the first time and hes a decent claimer and value for his 5lb claim and hes here for just this one ride. Charlie Johnston does well when sending his horses here with a 13.6% strike rate. Corsican Caper is my other choice for the race , arrives on the back of a length win last time here at Chester over 2 miles , drop in trip shouldnt prove too much of a hinderance and im hopeful of another solid showing here today although hes yet to win over this trip in 3 attempts. Sean D Bowen rode him for the first time last time and he is back on board this afternoon , for me hes one of the best claimers around , and is enjoying an 18.7% strike rate over the last month , and when riding here this season he has a 23.8% strike rate. Trainer Kevin Frost sends just this one to the meeting and he has a 12.5% strike rate here this term. When the pair have teamed up over the last 21 days they have a 100% strike rate.

4.10 Ayr - Redarna 9/1
Couldnt make my mind up whether to back Redarna or not but after careful thought ive finally taken the plunge .. could only manage fifth of nine last time out but before that had come out on top when beating Barley by a neck over a mile at carlisle. Has won off higher marks than todays although the weight aspect does put me off slightly but looking at his course form im hoping that can help to negate that. Over todays CD hes had eight runs resulting in six wins and a place , whilst at the course overall he has seven wins and a place from thirteen outings so definatley proven here at the course and over the distance. The class , going and draw look okay to me , Dianne Sayer has a 13% strike rate when coming here whilst Paul Mulrennan whose in the hot seat has three wins and a place from his thirteen rides to date. Has a 16% strike rate over the past three weeks and has a 15% strike rate when riding here overall. Hopefully can make his presence felt at what i consider a decent price.

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Fancy a few others but for one reason or another , price or other runners putting me off , im gonna leave them .. case in point Relief Rally , thing this one can go well but worried about two or three others in the race and at the current odds of 4s im happy enough to leave it alone .. anyways five for today so fingers crossed for a winner or two

 

[Deleted member 7256]

After another look through i have added Redarna to todays bets. Just gotta keep everything crossed now !

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Saturday 21st September

5.15 Ayr - Euchen Glen 14/1 Lost (2nd)
Well old faithful is running again and im keeping the faith ! In all honesty he hasnt been running badly considering his age and the fact that he does so well here gives me hope of a decent run , the last time he ran here at Ayr , back in June , he won , over todays CD , beating Baileys Khelstar by half a length in a class 2 handicap and as ive said his record round here is second to none with three wins from four runs over CD , and five wins and four places from eleven runs at the course overall. Has won from higher marks than todays and class , going and draw all look okay to me eye. Paul Mulrennan in the saddle and he knows the horse well with nine wins and ten places from his 55 rides aboard him , 17.1% strike rate in the last four weeks and has a 20% strike rate when riding here this term along with a small profit of +£5.75. Trainer Jim Goldie has a 19% strike rate over the last three weeks and has a 14.3% strike rate when bringing his runners here this season. When the trainer and jockey have teamed up over the past three weeks they come away with a 28% strike rate. As i say given the course/distance form and the price i couldnt let him go unbacked.

3.20 Newmarket - Equiano Springs 12/1 Lost (3rd) / Spring Bloom 17/2 Lost (4th)
A few of these come into this looking as though they could go well but im gonna side with a couple of decently priced ones who i hope can outrun their odds and upset the principals. First one of those is Equiano Springs who loves it here at Newmarket with a CD record of three wins and a place from four runs , and the fact that hes won three of the last five renewals of this race hasnt gone un noticed either (and was third to Abate in last years race). Could only manage eleventh last time but back here at a course and a race he clearly loves i think he'll be a totally different proposition and at the price i think hes well worth a pop. Has won off higher than todays mark and the going shouldnt be an issue and he looks adequatley berthed. Tom Tate has just this one out today and he does well when sending them here with a 36.4% strike rate over the last five years alongside a profit of +£13.83. Hector Crouch in the hot seat for the first time and he has a 19% strike rate in the last three weeks. The other one i like is Spring Bloom who comes into this in decent fettle , won two races before coming sixth last time out , but a solid effort in defeat only being beaten a length to Good Earth. In one of those wins he beat my other selection , a head and 3/4 length , and i dont think there will be much between the two today and im hoping that it will be these pair fighting it out come the line. Placed on only start over todays CD he s won once and placed twice in his four starts at the course overall. Benoit De La Sayette takes the ride and hes one from one on the horse to date and this is his only ride of the day. At the price i think hes worth a go.

4.45 Chester - Dreams Adozen 5/1 Unplaced / Corsican Caper 9/2 Unplaced
Open looking race but a pair that particularly interest me are the ones im going with in the hope that one of them can oblige , Dreams Adozen is the first one , been in good form lately with three seconds in his last four races , those seconds all came here at Chester and he usually runs a sound race when coming here with a CD record of a win and a place from three runs and two wins and five places from eleven runs at the course overall , so couldnt honestly write his chances off when racing here and you honestly cant write a Johnston horse off over these sort of distances. Yet to win off a mark this high but has gone close off slightly lower and given his recent form i'd say it shouldnt prove to much of a problem. Archie Young in the saddle for the first time and hes a decent claimer and value for his 5lb claim and hes here for just this one ride. Charlie Johnston does well when sending his horses here with a 13.6% strike rate. Corsican Caper is my other choice for the race , arrives on the back of a length win last time here at Chester over 2 miles , drop in trip shouldnt prove too much of a hinderance and im hopeful of another solid showing here today although hes yet to win over this trip in 3 attempts. Sean D Bowen rode him for the first time last time and he is back on board this afternoon , for me hes one of the best claimers around , and is enjoying an 18.7% strike rate over the last month , and when riding here this season he has a 23.8% strike rate. Trainer Kevin Frost sends just this one to the meeting and he has a 12.5% strike rate here this term. When the pair have teamed up over the last 21 days they have a 100% strike rate.

4.10 Ayr - Redarna 9/1 Unplaced
Couldnt make my mind up whether to back Redarna or not but after careful thought ive finally taken the plunge .. could only manage fifth of nine last time out but before that had come out on top when beating Barley by a neck over a mile at carlisle. Has won off higher marks than todays although the weight aspect does put me off slightly but looking at his course form im hoping that can help to negate that. Over todays CD hes had eight runs resulting in six wins and a place , whilst at the course overall he has seven wins and a place from thirteen outings so definatley proven here at the course and over the distance. The class , going and draw look okay to me , Dianne Sayer has a 13% strike rate when coming here whilst Paul Mulrennan whose in the hot seat has three wins and a place from his thirteen rides to date. Has a 16% strike rate over the past three weeks and has a 15% strike rate when riding here overall. Hopefully can make his presence felt at what i consider a decent price.

 

[Deleted member 7256]

To Date
Bets 180 ... Won 33 ... EP +23.28 / SP -7.47

 

[Deleted member 7256]

Bad day at the office , sorry to anyone who followed , i was confident that at least one or two would win , especially Euchen Glen who i saw was being backed (finished at 11/4) and what a nice touch that would of been had he obliged , but it werent to be unfortunatley.