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Personal Form Ratings

Jackform

Gelding
Another 'unexpected' winner from an 'open' contest, so maybe not so unexpected? May 29th and three jumps cards on the UK mainland - that's nice. I checked the feature race on each card and found one 'restricted' race and then a non-runner made it an 'open' contest.

Fontwell (going forecast G)
3.55 class 3 all-aged chase over 25.5f with 7 runners.
Prob % nos early market - 1, 3, 4, 5 indicating a fairly open contest. Fav 6/4, contender 3/1, not expected 6/1+

RPR converted to odds with 105% overround

1. 143 16/1 odds required (9/4 early market - Saint Roque forecast fav and well tipped-up so the result will be interesting)
2. 145 5/1 (11/1)
3. 147 7/2 (4/1) Bob Tucker
4. 145 5/1 (7/1) Chill Factor
5. 146 7/2 ( 3/1)
6. 145 5/1 (13/2)
8. 143 16/1 (28/1)

Comment: 4 points separates the field so no wonder it looks open. Bob Tucker and Chill Factor are currently at viable odds.

Jackform ratings converted to odds with 105% overround.

1. 5/1 odds required (9/4 early market)
2. 15/2 (11/1)
3. 7/2 (4/1) Bob Tucker
4. 5/1 (7/1) Chill Factor
5. 5/1 (3/1)
6. 5/1 (13/2
8. 28/1 (28/1)

Comment: 7 points separates the field. Bob Tucker and Chill Factor are currently at viable odds.
 

Jackform

Gelding
That Fav went to pieces after the last and allowed Chill Factor to chase him down. Found three possible restricted races today and selected probably the most difficult one to assess. @ ronin if you want an 'easy' race Windsor 4.05 is it - restricted race nos 4, 5. Discreet Hero 11/8 early 7 tips, Just That Lord 9/2 early 5 tips. However my chosen race Redcar 3.25 does not look easy but interesting to assess. The other race was the Leicester 4.25.

Redcar ( going forecast on the firm side of good)
3.25 class 2 4yo+ hcap over 10f with 13 runners.
Probability % nos 09.00 - 3, 8, 9, 10, 13 indicated a shorter odds win. Strong fav 3/1, contender 6/1, not expected 12/1+

RPR converted to odds with 127% overround

1. 110 15/2 odds required (33/1 early market)
2. 110 15/2 (33/1)
3*. 111 13/2 (13/2) Revolutionist
4. 109 9/1 (20/1)
5. 106 25/1 (20/1)
6. ? (25/1)
7. 108 12/1 (20/1)
8*. 109 9/1 (6/1)
9*. 111 13/2 (11/4)
10*. 109 9/1 (3/1)
11. 111 13/2 (20/1)
12. 108 12/1 (14/1)
13*. 110 15/2 (7/1)

Comment: 5 points separates the field. Of the * probables Revolutionist is currently at viable odds.

Jackform ratings converted to odds with 127% overround.

1. 6 11/1 odds required (33/1 early market)
2. 6 11/1 (33/1)
3*. 11 6/1 (13/2) Revolutionist
4. 5 14/1 (20/1)
5. 2 28/1 (20/1)
6. 4 16/1 (25/1)
7. 6 11/1 (20/1)
8*. 12 11/2 (6/1) Taawdea
9*. 11 6/1 (11/4)
10*. 9 15/2 (3/1)
11. 7 13/2 (20/1)
12. 6 11/1 (14/1)
13*. 11 6/1 (7/1) Sweet Emperor

Comment: 9 points separates the field . Revolutionist, Taawdea, Sweet Emperor are currently at viable odds.

Final Comment: from the early market it seems the Suroor and Varian yards are keen on their chance today with top track combo O'Meara/Tudhope in there with Taawdaea, not forgetting Johnston/Fanning with Revolutionist.
 
Last edited:

ronin

Colt
Thanks again Jackform Jackform.
I had Discreet Hero as a shortlisted possible selection last night, but the price has shortened further and I think I'll be watching from the sidelines.
Good luck at Redcar.
 

ronin

Colt
Discreet Hero is the Skybet price boost horse, best to give it a miss
Thanks Swordfish Swordfish. I can see where you're coming from.
Although I don't think Sky are choosing it because they think it won't win, but because it's massively underpriced, even after their not very generous "boost".
Just my opinion.

best wishes
ronin
 

Jackform

Gelding
The interesting fact from yesterday was that three of the five probability % nos were in the frame, and long may it continue. Checked the Leicester 3.30 although it has some fairly conflicting attributes, so once again it will be interesting to see the result.

Leicester (going forecast GF)
3.30 Class 4 3yo fillies hcap over 7f with 10 runners (it's those capricious females again :eek:).
Probabilty % nos 8.25 - 2, 3, 4, 9 indicating a short odds win. Strong fav 9/4, contender 9/2, not expected 9/1+.

RPR converted to odds with 112% overrround.

1. 95 13/2 odds required (25/1 early market)
2*. 96 11/2 (15/8) Jaadayil
3*. 95 13/2 (5/1) Next Life
4*. 96 11/2 (5/1) Dutch Destiny
5. 95 13/2 (12/1)
6. 92 22/1 (25/1)
7. 93 13/1 (11/1)
8.93 13/1 (16/1)
9*. 94 9/1 (10/1) Semra
10. 95 13/2 (10/1)

Comment: Just 4 points separate the field. Stats have it that 25% of hcaps with up to 12 runners are won by the Fav in which case the book expects Jaadayil and the odds have currently gone. Semra is currently the only probable at viable odds and looks an each-way shot.

Jackform ratings converted to odds with 112% overrround.

1. 6 10/1 odds required (25/1 early market)
2. 9 5/1 (15/8) Jaadayil
3. 6 10/1 (5/1) Next Life
4. 9 5/1 (5/1) Dutch Destiny
5. 6 10/1 (12/1)
6. 6 10/1 (25/1)
7. 4 25/1 (11/1)
8. 9 5/1 (16/1)
9. 8 6/1 (10/1) Semra
10. 6 10/1 (12/1)

Comment: 5 points separate the field. Dutch Destiny is currently at viable odds but weighing that against a strong fav may only be an each-way shot, Semra is the same.

Final comment: Checking the chart I compiled (I am a pen and paper man can't do the technical stuff) the two strongest for hcap and overall form are Jaadayil and Semra. Weight seems to be the factor causing the problem with 6, 7, 8 having the advantage
 

Jackform

Gelding
Yesterday it was a case of 'the best laid plans of mice and men gang aft agley' as the Welsh guy said. Could be more of the same today as I have opted for a non-hcap fillies race, both factors that have caused me problems in the past.

Nottingham (going forecast GF)
4.00 class 1 4yo+ fillies stakes over 10f with 12 runners.
True mathematical odds nos early markey - 2, 4, 6, 9, 10 12 currently the winner expected from these taking the market as the standard to work from. Not expected 11/1+

RPR converted to odds with 122% overrround.

1. 114 8/1 odds required (16/1 early market)
2*. 109 16/1 (10/1)
3. 106 35/1 (33/1)
4*. 116 13/2 (11/1) Elebereth
5. 112 10/1 (20/1)
6*. 113 9/1 (2/1)
7. 114 8/1 (14/1)
8. 117 6/1 (12/1)
9*. 116 13/2 (6/1)
10*. 121 9/2 (6/1) Sound Of Freedom
11. 111 12/1 (10/1)
12*. 108 20/1 (10/1)

Comment: 16 points separation in the field. Elbereth and Sound Of Freedom are currently at viable odds.

Jackform ratings converted to odds with 122% overround.

1. 7 7/1 odds required (16/1 early market)
2*. 6 9/1 (10/1) California
3. 4 16/1 (33/1)
4*. 6 9/1 (11/1) Elbereth
5. 0 ? (20/1)
6*. 9 5/1 (2/1)
7. 3 25/1 (14/1)
8. 5 12/1 (12/1)
9*. 8 6/1 (6/1) Sagaciously
10*. 8 6/1 (6/1) Sound Of Freedom
11. 7 7/1 (16/1)
12*. 8 6/1 (10/1) Weetles

Comment: 6 points difference in the field and currently looks more open than the market suggests. I will have to wait until shortly before the off before coming to any betting decision. Claifornia, Elbereth, Sagaciously, Sound Of Freedom, Weetles are currently at viable odds.

Final comment: I have no rating for Forte whereas RPR has her as a 20/1 chance so they must weigh up different factors than myself. Intimation looks currently too short opposite the risk. I quite like Gosden and Ed Dunlop in the race but they are just personal fancies.
 
Three non runners and I can't find out why......yet
One because of going...two self certificate
 
Last edited:

Jackform

Gelding
Swordfish Swordfish just caught up with this and will now just watch the race for interest. The withdrawals have changed the maths involved and normally I wouldn't adjust them but I have done so just because of your interest.

Nottingham 4.00 adjusted figures.
probables 14.05 - 2, 4, 8, 9, 10, 12 now looking more open. Not expected 8/1+

RPR with 107% overrround

2*. 15/1 odds required (7/1 market 14.05)
3. 50/1 (20/1)
4*. 11/2 (13/2) Elbereth
5. 17/2 (20/1)
8*. 5/1 (8/1) Pamona
9*. 11/2 (7/2)
10*. 5/1 (4/1)
11. 10/1 (10/1)
12*. 20/1 (6/1)

Comment: Elbereth and Pamoa are currently at viable odds.

Jackform ratings with 107% overround

2*. 9/1 (7/1)
3. 25/1 (20/1)
4*. 13/2 (13/2) Elbereth
5. ? (20/1)
8*. 13/1 (8/1)
9*. 9/2 (7/2)
10*. 5/1 (4/1)
11. 5/1 (10/1)
12* 9/2 (6/1)

Comment: Elbereth is currently viable, certainly each-way.
 
Last edited:

Jackform

Gelding
Just for interest whilst waiting for the 4.00 race these are the variables RacingSystemBuilder claim to use, which I find mind boggling. Myself, I currently employ just 6 factors to compile my ratings with a pen and paper chart, admittedly I then have to go and check out a further ten or so when I have compiled a short list.


RSB variables (Flat Racing)

Course Group A Each variable is restricted to a

Course Group A, last run maximum of 11 categories, so

Course Group B courses have to be grouped.

Course Group B, last run The groupings are loosely based

Course Group C on class criteria

Course Group C, last run

Course Group D

Course Group D, last run

Horse, Age in Years

Horse, Blinkers

Horse, Foaling Date

Horse, Interval Time Days between current & last run

Horse, Overexposure Measured as prev rces run / mean

Horse, Sex

Info, Overall News News from training centres

Info, Rating Rank Ranking on total top ratings

Info, Tips Analysis from 2 sporting papers

Jockey's Claim

Jockey's Claim, last run

Jockey, Course Wins Rank Rank in race by jockey course wins

Jockey, Cse Runs Since W

Jockey, Rides Since Win

Jockey, Rides at Meeting

Jockey, Rides on Day

Jockey, Strike Rate

Last Losing Distance Distance beaten in last race (losers)

Month

Odds, Forecast Price Average for 2 sporting papers

Odds, Forecast Price Rank

Odds, FP to SP Ratio FP / SP

Odds, Last Market Rank

Odds, Last Starting Price

Odds, Starting Price

Odds, Starting Price Rank

Penalty

Position, 2 runs ago

Position, 3 runs ago

Position, 4 runs ago

Position, 5 runs ago

Position, 6 runs ago

Position, Average last 6 Moving point av. 1-9, 10+ = 10

Position, Best of last 6

Position, last run

Race Class (Official)

Race Class, last run

Race Dist Group, last run Sprint, Mile, Middle, Long

Race Distance (long)

Race Distance (short)

Race Distance Group Sprint, Mile, Middle, Long

Race Distance Ratio

Race Dst(long), last run

Race Dst(shrt), last run

Race Going

Race Going Difference

Race Going Surface Change Turf / Equitrack / Fibresand

Race Going, last run

Race Runners

Race Runners, last run

Race Type

Race Type by Age Group

Race Type by Rider

Race Type by Weight By how weights are allotted

Race Type, last run

Race Value

Race Value, last run

Race, FP2nd/FP1st

Race, Runners Rank on Day

Race, Total LTO Winners

Race, Value Rank on Day

Runs With No Wins Maidens only, runs without a win

Total Course Wins

Total Distance Wins

Total Going Wins

Total Races Run

Total Races this Season

Total Wins

Trainer, Course Wins Rank Rank in race by trainer wins at crse

Trainer, Cse Runs Since W

Trainer, Journey

Trainer, Runners at Meet

Trainer, Runners on Day

Trainer, Runs Since Win

Trainer, Strike Rate

Training Centre Newmarket, Lambourn, North etc

Weight Allotted

Weight Ascending Rank

Weight Change

Weight Descending Rank

Weight, last run

Winner Running Style Make all, Held up, Indistinct

Winner, C / D / G Wins

Winner, Days Since a Win

Winning Dstnce, last run
 

Jackform

Gelding
Opted today for a race where the well tipped up forecast fav has been withdrawn and the revised forecast is not strong.

Lingfield (forecast going soft side of good)
4.40 class 4 4yo+ hcap over 9f with 8 runners.
Probabilty % nos 08.25 - 3, 4, 6, 10 indicated a win from these. Strong fav 7/4, contender 7/2, not expected 7/1+

RPR converted to odds with 114% overround.

2. 89 13/1 odds required (15/2 early market 08.25)
3*. 90 8/1 (5/2)
4*. 89 13/1 (4/1)
5. 93 3/1 (12/1)
6*. 90 8/1 (13/2)
8. 92 4/1 (12/1)
9. 92 4/1 (9/1)
10*. 90 8/1 (11/2)

Comment: 4 points separates the field, which is tight. Non from the probables but three from the unexpected division nos 5, 8, 9 ?

Jackform ratings converted to odds with 114% overround.

2. 4 15/1 odds required (15/2 early market)
3*. 7 4/1 (5/2)
4*. 5 17/2 (4/1)
5. 6 11/2 (12/1)
6*. 8 10/3 (13/2) Woofie
8. 4 15/1 (12/1)
9. 5 17/2 (9/1)
10*. 8 10/3 (11/2)

Comment: 4 points separates the field. Woofie is currently at viable odds.

Final comment: The two sets of ratings are out of sync in this tight looking contest. I looked at my ratings chart to see if there was a clue to the reason. Five of the eight have dropped in weight carried and that usually means a rise in class. The most critical reason I see for the uncertainty is the lack of good recent form and overall form and that is where Inke comes out a little better, but not much. I will stick with Woofie dropped in body weight but perhaps not up in class.
 

Jackform

Gelding
Just did a quick assessment of the Ripon 3.20.

Ripon (going forecast good)
3.20
Probables nos 1, 3, 5

RPR with 113% overround. Corton Lad and Count Montecristo currently at viable odds.

Jackform with 113% overround. Corton Lad is at viable odds.

Comment: Rotherwick is a strong fav but currently too short. Polar Forest is strong in both sets of ratings but not supported in the market.
 
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