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    Ark Royal
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  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

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  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
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Personal Form Ratings

Jackform

Gelding
For some years now I have felt that rating assessments are probably best left to the professionals but it is quite satisfying I find to compile your own, even if only for comparison.

Warwick (going forecast soft side of good)
3.00
Instant Karma 102
Gin And Tonic 90
Bold Duke 66

3.30
Beeves 77
Dawson City 70
Financial Climate 69

4.00
Touch Back 92
You Say What 55
Mustmeetalady 52

Wincanton (going forecast soft side of good)
3.10
Ballinvarrig 87
Exmoor Mist 73
Native Robin 72
 

Jackform

Gelding
One decent win, one near miss for a small profit on the day.

Ludlow (going forecast soft side of good)
2. 50 (my top trainers listing for interest - Toby Lerone/Skelton 24, Buck Mulligan/Williams 19)
Buck Mulligan 76
Toby Lerone 69
Alberobeelo 63

4.00 (trainers listing - Tornado In Milan/Williams 19)
Noche De Reves 90
Goohar 84
Tornado In Milan 77
 

Jackform

Gelding
33% strike-rate at average odds of 11/4 so far and if this successful run continues, I will be cooking by gas :D. Alas today I have hit a brick wall selection-wise with heavy going on the flat turf at Nottingham, low grade racing on the flat turf at Catterick and I have never tried rating runners at AW tracks, so I will have to rest on my laurels for now.

This thread is not really a system test as it is more or less a done deal for me as you might expect from a septuagenarian (they can't touch you for it -yet!) with 65 years experience of UK racing. What can be said about it?

Selection - is down to specialisation, more or less. Avoiding extremes of going and weather when it occurs, considering better class races hoping for greater consistency, no 2yo or 3yo on the Flat turf until after the Guineas meeting at Newmarket, no AW racing as it has always been a minefield.

Odds - nothing shorter than 6/4 as even with a decent strike-rate it is impossible to make worthwhile consistent profit. Coupled odds up to three runners when in doubt, with shortest at 5/2.

Staking - Bet for a level return rather than to a level stake as it is illogical to risk the same amount on a 6/4 chance as against a 10/1 chance.

It is all down to temperament really and not going outside you comfort zone, trying to be an 'investor' rather than a 'gambler'.
 

Sigster

Gelding
It is all down to temperament really and not going outside you comfort zone, trying to be an 'investor' rather than a 'gambler'.

I get asked at work quite a bit( there's quite a few of us like the geegees) how I make any money gambling on the horses.
I'm fond of telling people I don't gamble on the horses. I'm an equine investment specialist...........
 

markfinn

Sire
Hi Jackform Jackform good stuff as always - AW same rules as you are useing 4 yrs and up until july sticking to class 4 through 2 handicaps - I can assure you the form works out equally well as turf racing perhaps even more so - there are specialists as in turf but once sorted easy enough - Lingfield is hardest lots of blanket finishes and Southwell needs to be looked at differently and definitly requires specialist / experience on behalf of horse and connections.
 
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Jackform

Gelding
Practise for the ‘big’ one on Saturday at Aintree today

Aintree 7 April (going forecast was on the soft side of good and probably getting softer)

1.40 (trainers for comparison by merit/form - Bouvreuil/Nicholls 27, L’Ami Serge/Henderson 24
Sizing John 87, Arzal 85, L’AmiSerge 84

2.15 (trainers – Diego Charmil/Nicholls 30, Romain De Senam 27, Apple’s Jade 18
Apple’s Jade 93, Ivanovich Gorbatov 93, Footpad 90

2.50 (trainers – Houblon Des Obeaux/Williams 19, Djakadam/Mullins 18
Don Poli 93, Djakadam 85, Cue Card 84

3.25 (trainers – My Tent Or Yours/Henderson 25, Aniie Power?Mullins 21, Court Minstrel/Williams18
Annie Power 114, Nicholls Canyon 100, TheNew One 78

4.05 ( trainers – Marasonnien/Mullins 21
On The Fringe 100, Current Event 90, Pacha Du Polder 74

4.40 (trainers – Solar Impulse/Nicholls 30, Bright New Dawn/Elliott 13, Mulholland 12
Dandridge 95, Minella Present 87, Solar Impulse 84
 

Jackform

Gelding
Whilst racing at Aintree is tempting and enjoyable to watch it might be better to punt more prosaically at Taunton today, particularly as it looks now that the Aintree going will not be at all favourable.

Taunton (going forecast soft side of good)
3.55 (trainers by merit/form - Carrigmoma King/Hobbs 29)
Carrigmona King 75, Sew On Target 62, Easily Pleased 43

4.30 (trainers - Eardisland/Hobbs 29, Nesterenko/Henderson 28, Sir Ivan/Fry 13)
Sir Ivan 80, After Eight Sivola 78, Eardisland 75
 

Boyo

Filly
Elo Jack

I see your sense of humorousness has not changed or your logicality along with your illogical thought patterns...

Now that,s a quotation for you this morning Sir

I often wondered where you had gone, never have our paths fully crossed never has print been past by us yet your worth is held in high regards by one south Wales farmer who walks the hills at night to tend his flock.

Alas I have found my mentor .... Don,t panic i am no stalker but a true admirer of your work Jack

You have aided me unknowingly in this industry I trade beyond your wildest dreams " yes you"

An extract i once read that you posted some years back it went something like this try telling a punter there is a gender class in a race they laugh at you. ask them would they back a female on it,s back then they say no, I ask what is the difference then, are two legged males stronger than 4 legged, or very simpler words you used.

There are many many more mathematical postings i could post that you wrote but all in all you turned a gambling punter " me " into a profitable livestock trader & all unknown to you until today.

May i take this moment to thank you kindly my head is lowered cap in hand your a gentlemen & a true scalar Sir

Boyo looks forward to building a true relationship with you as there is more I feel much, more I could learn.
 
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Boyo

Filly
Been out lambing all night Sir

Spent a lot of time reading threads through the small hours to keep me awake & posting a few pointers myself, Drink I would love one soon after lambing & Kidding it will be mind as for gambling i know no better, but i am much cleverer now :)

I still use your method on price never do i trade above it as a rule i always calculate the tissue using your sound advise.

Have a Good day Sir nice to see your still posting advise.

Boyo
 

Jackform

Gelding
The ratings proved satisfactory yesterday despite misgivings about the going, but the course turf has always drained well. It doesn’t look too bad today as there have been no withdrawals overnight due to the ground conditions. Three large fields on the card today, which doesn’t make it any easier for assessors to succeed.

Aintree 8 April – going forecast generally on the soft side of good

1.40 Ma Du Fou 114, Curious Carlos 111, Theinval 90 (trainers - San Benedeto/Nicholls 30, Blazer/Mullins 14, Tycoon Prince/Elliott 10).

2.15 Lemini 114, Agrapart 114, Beuver D’Air 102 (trainers – Marracudja/Nicholls 27, Beuver D’Air/Henderson 24, Lemini/Mullins 21.

2.50 UnTemps Pour Tout 114, Blaklion 111, Native River 51 (trainers – UnTemps Pout Tout/Pipe 26, Blaklion/Twiston-Davies 25, Native River/Tizzard 17.

3.25 Vautour 96, Al Ferof 67, God’s Own 53 (trainers – Vautour/Mullins 21, Al Ferof/Skelton 20.

4.05 Bishops Road 110, Bennys Mist 103, Rathlin 84 (trainers – La Vaticane/Pipe 26, Minella Reception/Twiston-Davies 22, Turban/Mullins 17.

4.40 Tomngerry 78, Ballyoptic 75, Baqulet Delaroque 72 (trainers – Ballyoptic/Twiston-Davies25, Arkwright/Mullins21, Ballydine/Longsdon 14.
 

Jackform

Gelding
Newcastle is the alternative jumps meeting for those not betting in the heady atmosphere of Aintree.

Newcastle (going forecast soft)

4.25 Un Noble 84, King Of The Wolds 81, Silver Tassie 75

5.00 Nuts Well 102, Spiculas 54, Swaledale 43
 

markfinn

Sire
Elo Jack

I see your sense of humorousness has not changed or your logicality along with your illogical thought patterns...

Now that,s a quotation for you this morning Sir

I often wondered where you had gone, never have our paths fully crossed never has print been past by us yet your worth is held in high regards by one south Wales farmer who walks the hills at night to tend his flock.

Alas I have found my mentor .... Don,t panic i am no stalker but a true admirer of your work Jack

You have aided me unknowingly in this industry I trade beyond your wildest dreams " yes you"

An extract i once read that you posted some years back it went something like this try telling a punter there is a gender class in a race they laugh at you. ask them would they back a female on it,s back then they say no, I ask what is the difference then, are two legged males stronger than 4 legged, or very simpler words you used.

There are many many more mathematical postings i could post that you wrote but all in all you turned a gambling punter " me " into a profitable livestock trader & all unknown to you until today.

May i take this moment to thank you kindly my head is lowered cap in hand your a gentlemen & a true scalar Sir

Boyo looks forward to building a true relationship with you as there is more I feel much, more I could learn.




Jackform Jackform - Is there a copy of the origonal article ? and you ewe woulndt believe it but by sheepish coincidence

Prize winning Swaledale.jpg
 
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Jackform

Gelding
Grand National Chase

These are my personal top form-rated horses and given clear rounds some of them ought to at least make the frame.

37. The Last Samuri

2. Silvianaco Conti

38. Saint Are

1. Many Clouds

23. Unioniste

13. Holywell

Back with the rest of the card later
 

Jackform

Gelding
My personal form-rating hit a brick wall yesterday regarding winners but it doesn’t look like that will be the case today at least in races 2, 3 & 4; the market currently agrees.

Aintree

1.45 Arpege D’Alene 83, If In Doubt 72, Rock The Kasbah 69, Mydor 67

2.25 Yorkhill 114, Flying Angel 84, Le Prezien 72

3.00 Douvan 114, Alisier D’Irlande 86, The Game Changer 75

3.40 Thistlecrack 120, Different Gravey 87, Prince Of Scars 84

4.20 Mystifiable 92, Cernunnos 85, Coologue 84

6.10 Bigmartre 88, Nesterenko 84, Frodon 83
 

Jackform

Gelding
These races are a couple to consider away from Aintree.

Sedgefield (going forecast soft)
4.30
Beyondtemptation 120, My Little Cracker 94, Card Game 90

Chepstow (going forecast soft side of good)
4.40
Streets Of Promise 84, Waldorf Salad 64, Alternatif 61
 

Jackform

Gelding
Back to the bread and butter stuff today. Swerving Ffos Las as the going is reported heavy in parts.

Market Rasen (Going forecast soft side of good)
3.55
Raktiman 86, Under The Phone 68, Friendly Royal 55, Mount Royale 49

Comment: Under The Phone is 3lbs out of the hcap (with a 3lb claimer up) but has a fair chance to challenge Raktiman at the weights.
 
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