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  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

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My NH Selections

Dave

Colt
Having gone through the cards there really is nothing that I'm that interested in betting on today. I have been busy watching and betting especially at Cheltenham and Punchestown over the weekend. The Cheltenham November meeting is one of my favourite meetings and it was another 3 days of really good racing.

Prior to the meeting I had been reading an article produced by Racing TV where they identified 5 horses that they felt had very strong chances of winning over the 3 day meeting https://www.racingtv.com/news/five-horses-to-look-out-for-at-the-november-meeting-at-cheltenham-this-week The five they featured were EASYSLAND, HELL RED, SLATE HOUSE,DEFI DU SEUIL and ELLE EST BELLE

I had a good look at these selections and these were my thoughts and what I decided on the following:

EASYLAND – Should win if reproducing the effort from the Cheltenham Festival but the price was too restrictive and Tiger Roll could be anything. No Bet.

HELL RED – The visual of his win was impressive but the speed figures produced simply didn’t look as impressive and at a short price I thought he was one to take on. I was more of the opinion that Duffle Coat would win this. The speed figures were good and he has some decent form and that was my bet in the race. I’m pleased to say that the trip over from Ireland was worth it as it was a winning bet.

SLATE HOUSE – Looking in full control and the most likely winner of the race in the previous year. He then failed to deliver when stepped up and the Tizzard yard haven’t been on song. I thought Al Dancer had very good chance of winning this at a decent price and would certainly get in the top five which was what the E/W was paying. He finished 3rd which paid out but I don’t think he could have won the race he was beaten by better horses on the day.

DEFI DU SEUIL – This was one of my banker bets going into the Cheltenham festival last year for obvious reason. Unfortunately, he under performed and finished out of the frame. PUT THE KETTLE ON had won the Arkle and also had very good Cheltenham form and a huge mares allowance for me at the prices I thought it was a reasonable bet and thankfully she won, I believe DEFI DU SEUIL blew his chances when ballooning the first fence and landing funny on one of his front legs. He was pulled up before the last.

ELLE EST BELLE – This was the one that I was really interested in having seen her win her bumper in the style of a really good one. The speed figures backed up my thoughts. She finished deadheat 1st but if you watched the race and saw the photo finish you will be of the same opinion that really she just got touched off and thankfully the poor lighting meant I made a bit of money.


Ones for the Notebook
I was very taken with a few performances this weekend. I was made to sweat with PUT THE KETTLE ON thankfully she won and I got paid out. Paul Nichols horse DUC DES GENIEVRES ran a huge race and based on that performance he is going to be up to winning some top class races this year.

I also really liked the performance of THE BIG BREAKAWAY in his debut Chase race. His jumping was very good and he looked like he has a very good engine and will certainly be winning more 3M Chase races.

Both Ramses De Teillee and Yala Enki need a mention as I thought they both ran fantastic races jump well and battling right to the line.I can see them picking up a few wins this season based on the performance.

I was impressed with Eldorado Allen winning performance especially as he was carrying my money. I must admit I was sweating a bit as GUMBALL was running a huge race until tipping up at the last and he has gone into my tracker.

COOLE CODY put in a fantastic performance leading from the start to the finish. I was waiting throughout for him to blow up and tail off but full credit to him he ran his heart out and won. He is straight into the tracker as a horse with battling qualities and a huge heart.I also liked the way that Kauto Riko finished up the hill in the Paddy Power Gold Cup

I have to mention Ishkhara Lady she ran a blinder and in my opinion actually did enough to win the race. Thankfully the stewards bottle it due to bad light. She should be winning again soon.

Protektorat was impressive and has gone into the tracker as he should be winning Novice Chases.

At Punchestown I was impressed with Pencilfulloflead who looks to be a progressive Novice Chaser, He jumped really well beating Latest Exhibition in a Grade 2 race.

Asterion Forlonge another who looked impressive although he did make a bit of a hash of two out and ended up on his nose. He gathered himself and went on to win comfortably and looks to have a bright future over fences.
 

Dave

Colt
The racing isn't the greatest tomorrow but I do believe we have 4 selections that have good chances of winning their respective races.

Warwick 12:20 - Twominutes Turkish is a 5 year old gelding by Mahler who is trained by Chris Gordon and ridden by Tom Cannon. He ran a good race in his bumper at Newbury finishing 5th on good ground and then didn't do so well at Huntingdon on soft. LTO he won a Maiden Hurdle over 2 Miles at Fakenham on good ground in impressive fashion. He won by 15 lengths and up until the last his hurdling was very good, he had a bit of a blip at the last but recovered well and won eased down. I do think that Cadzand is a big danger though. I might even do a little reverse forecast as it is going to be tight between them.

Warwick 12:20 - Twominutes Turkish 1pt win bet @ 15/8

Warwick 13:30 - The Glancing Queen is a 6 year old mare by Jeremy. She has some very good bumper form having finished 5th in the 2019 Cheltenham Champion Bumper. That form is always form that I follow as it generally throws up plenty of winners for the following season. She then went to Aintree and won the Grade 2 mares bumper race. The next time we saw her was back at Cheltenham in the 2020 Champion Bumper race where she finished 8th. This is an unusual route and I'm assuming injury was the reason they decided to hit the restart button again. I thought she ran another very good race in finishing 8th especially as this was coming off the back of a big lay off. She has finally got her day in a mares novice and she has every chance of developing into a high class novice hurdler. I certainly believe she is with the right trainer in Alan King and I'm hoping this will be Tom Cannon's second winner of the day. She has the class and the speed to win this and although it's her seasonal debut you have to believe she will be good enough to take this.

Warwick 13:30 - The Glancing Queen 1pt win bet @ 4/5


Ffos Las - 12:30 - Nada To Prada - she is a 5 year old mare by Kayf Tara who is trained by Michael Scudamore and ridden by Brendan Powell. She had won her point to point and then went on to win her bumper race at Exeter. She then made her hurdles debut at Hexham where she went off as favourite and finished 2nd losing by 4 lengths to On The Wild Side for Dr Richard Newland. The pair of them pulled 11 lengths clear of the 3rd placed horse. Throughout the race she travelled strongly and was foot perfect at the hurdles and was just tapped for a bit of speed off the last hurdle. She will have come on for that run and I can see her winning this race.

Ffos Las - 12:30 - Nada To Prada 1pt win bet @ 4/5



Ffos Las - 13:05 - Don Herbager - is a 6 year old gelding by Saddler Maker. He is trained by Venetia Williams and ridden by Charlie Deutsch. It is at this time of year once the mud starts to fly that Venetia Williams horse's generally start to fire. He is very lightly raced and is a much better Chaser than he was a hurdler. He ran 8 days ago at Lingfield in a 3 mile Chase on soft where he finished a very close second Hang Tough from Jonjo O'Neill's yard. Don Herbager travelled strongly throughout the race and jump well, I honestly thought he was going to be the winner coming over the last but he lost it on the run up to the line. That race should have blown away the cob webs and he should be spot on for today. His speed rating was good for the class, he is dropping slight in distance and compensation awaits.

Ffos Las - 13:05 - Don Herbager 1pt win bet @ 10/3
 

Dave

Colt
You will no doubt know that the weather these past few days in the UK has been wet and this has had an affect on the ground conditions. Catterick has been abandoned due to a waterlogged course. Thankfully Bangor races are going ahead. I'm interested only in horses that are proven on Heavy going and shown that they posses lots of stamina as it is going to be very hard going at Bangor today. The race that I'm interested in is the last on the card the 15:50. The course will have had 5 races by the time the race comes up and will taken on more rain and no doubt cut up and be difficult to race on. This can either be the demise or horses or be the making of them.

I have two horse that I have had a bet on in this race and both have the attributes that I'm looking for and the prices allow for me to back both to win.

15:50 Bangor - My first selection is Baratineur he is a 10 year old gelding who is trained by Adrian Wintle and ridden again by Harry Kimber claiming 7 lbs. He raced 34 days ago over C&D on Heavy going and finished 3rd beaten by 0.25 lengths in a thrilling finish. The handicapper has actually raised him 3lbs for that effort which will make life a bit harder today. His recorded over C&D on Heavy ground is a 1st and a 3rd which are positive indicators. The speed figures gained in those races are also encouraging. There are some concerns in that he is 10 years old and only won twice in 31 races although a positive is that he has been placed on 10 occasions.

My second selection in the race is All Good Things he is a 9 year old gelding who is trained by Matt Sheppard and ridden by Stan Sheppard. Stan knows the horse very well having ridden him 19 times and had one win and many placed efforts. He has only raced on heavy on a couple of occasions both at Uttoxeter where he finished runner up both times. All of his best efforts have been on Heavy or Soft. LTO he finished a good second at Ffos Las on Soft and will strip fitter for today's race. The speed figures on today's conditions are encouraging and I'm expecting a good run.

15:50 Bangor - Baratineur win bet @ 4/1

15:50 Bangor - All Good Things win bet @ 4/1
 

Dave

Colt
I've been looking at the 13:20 Bangor race and I have gone for an EW at 12 on the exchange on Echo Walt. He will love the conditions today and is full of stamina and this should be tapping into all of those stamina reserves. The jockey/trainer partnership looks a strong one with a SR of 66.6% over the past 3 years for Cls4 and Cls 5 races (I read that on the forum this morning but I've forgot where). He's had a seasonal run which should have him stripping fitter today. I think at the price he is a good value prospect.

13:20 Bangor race Echo Walt. EW @ 12
 
Well done with Echo Watt Dave Dave , and I am pleased to see that you like All Good Things. That’s also my bet today as posted on my thread, Baratineur has a similar chance based on run behind Ragamuffin but I preferred AGT because of lower physical weight in these conditions and also because trainer has a better overall strike rate. Good luck to us.
 

Dave

Colt
15:50 Bangor - All Good Things win bet @ 4/1 wins in style for a nice bit of profit.

That rounded off a good day after having had Echo Watt win at 12/1earlier on the card making 15.40 points profit today. Nice way to follow up from yesterdays success of 17 points profit.
 

Dave

Colt
making it look easy Dave Dave , well done.
Hi pete pete pete as you know, in this game we occasionally have these purple patches of good fortune. They don't tend to last long. It is normally the moment we up the stakes to try and cash in on our good fortune, that's when we tend to crash and burn....
 

Dave

Colt

3:50 Market Raisen - Knocknamona​

is a 10 year old gelding by Trans Island who is trained by Micky Hammond and ridden by Alain Cawley. He has had a recent spin over hurdles to low the cobwebs away and should be stripping fit for today. He loves the mud and I can see this race being up his street. His form figures for Chase races on heavy going between 2M 4F and 2M 7F are 1,F,1,1,7,8,1,2 This doesn't look that hard a handicap in my opinion and if he reproduced the form that he showed when winning his penultimate race at Bangor then he is going to be a big player in this at a good price. He is currently priced at 12/1 which I believe is too big.


3:50 Market Raisen - Knocknamona E/W @ 12/1​

 

Dave

Colt
Sorry guys, just had this info from a contact at the off

Just messaged Knocknamona yard. Will like the ground but may not be 100% fit as they’ve been battling the elements and two recent runners ran poorly.

That accounts fir that performance as the horse is much better than that.
 

Dave

Colt

14:15 Exeter - Astigar


I was looking at this race last night and I really believe that Astigar can win this and he will progress into being a decent horse in the process. I was impressed in his debut race with the way he travelled throughout and the way he battled right to the line on just losing by a head to Solwara one in a bumper at Uttoxeter back in November. Solwara One had experience having already had an outing when finishing second to Ask A Honey Bee which was pretty good form. The form of Astigar's bumper race has been franked with Solwara One who next time out won his debut hurdles race quite comfortably. Astigar's speed ratings for the bumper are pretty decent and that was on good to soft going. Today the going is soft but being a French Bred horse I believe he will handle the ground, His dam was a French dual Chase winner and sister to Ramses De Teille who we know handles soft very well.

David Pipe now sends Astigar over hurdles for the first time and this really does look like a race between Astigar and Nicky Henderson's Patroclus. The Pipe stable are in good form and Astigar will have had plenty of schooling before taken on hurdles for the first time. The Henderson yard have had a bit of a cloud over them but appear to have come out of teh other side now. That said I'm happy to take on Patroclus. Patroclus was odds on favourite last night when I started this blog and the favouritism has now shifted to Astigar.

I managed to get the following bet on last night but the prices have gone now

14:15 Exeter - Astigar win bet @ 7/4
 

Larry

Mare
I have a few HRB NH systems including 1 very nicely suggested by formtheory formtheory I think(apologies if it was someone else I tried to check but couldn't find the thread) but on all my systems ASTIGAR comes up as a strong contender so sorry Dave Dave your selection has the Larry kiss of death, that may be lessened by the fact that I'm taking a sabbatical from betting at the moment
 

Dave

Colt
I have a few HRB NH systems including 1 very nicely suggested by formtheory formtheory I think(apologies if it was someone else I tried to check but couldn't find the thread) but on all my systems ASTIGAR comes up as a strong contender so sorry Dave Dave your selection has the Larry kiss of death, that may be lessened by the fact that I'm taking a sabbatical from betting at the moment
I'll take my chances. I was very impressed with the horses attitude in his bumper and I'm very hopeful that he wins today. He has the speed and he should handle the going conditions.
 
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