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My NH Selections

Dave

Colt
I'm hopefully going to have a few more winners today on this thread

Today, is a new day and hopefully a winning day.



Huntingdon 14:35 - The Late Legend - is a 7 year old gelding by Midnight Legend who is trained by Tom Weston who's yard are in great form having had 2 winners from 2 runners in the past 14 days. Sean Bowen tales the ride again having won on him LTO at Sedgefield only 6 days ago. He has been raised 6lbs by the handicapper but he looks to have a progressive profile and his recent form figures over fences are 221. Today, he faces similar ground conditions as those at Sedgefield and he has a low weight which is never a bad thing. He is dropping back to 3 miles and my only concern would be if the race comes too soon have raced only 6 days ago. That said I don't believe that was a hard race and he should be winning again today.

Huntingdon 14:35 - The Late Legend 1pt win bet @ 13/8


Huntingdon 13:30 - Northern Bound - is a 6 year old gelding by Fruits of Love, he is trained by Ben Pauling and ridden again by Luca Morgan claiming a useful 7 lbs. LTO he was a convincing winner under a good ride from Luca at Warwick over 2M 4F on good ground. He has the same conditions today and although the handicapper has raised him 6lbs and he is up in class. His win came after only his 2nd start over fences and this is a step up in class but one I feel he is up to. He will have gained experience and now has shown a winning attitude. His speed rating recorded at Warwick certainly suggest that he is up to winning in this class although it will be more competitive.

Huntingdon 13:30 - Northern Bound 1pt win bet @ 3/1


Huntingdon 13:00 - Peur De Rein
- This 7 year old gelding by Kapgarde is bred to be a top quality chaser. He is trained by Oliver Sherwood who's yard are in very good form having had 2 winners from 8 runners in the past fortnight. Jamie Bargary takes the ride today. I was very impressed with the manner in which he won LTO at Uttoxeter on his debut over fences. He jump impressively and fluently and beat a decent field by 5 lengths. The form has since been franked by the runner up. He has similar ground conditions and distance to those at Uttoxeter so all boxes look to be ticked. The big change in his performance has come about through some very good training and a leading edge wind operation. He only had 1 run last season due to this breathing problem which makes him a lightly race horse that is likely to improve again.

The handicapper has raised him for his LTO victory but he doesn't have a lot of weight to carry and he looks like he will be very competitive again today.

Huntingdon 13:00 - Peur De Rein 1pt win bet @ 3/1

I'm also going to do a reverse forecast bet with Nicky Henderson's horse Captain Woodie who I see as the biggest danger. He is by Presenting and was a decent hurdler and this will be his chasing debut. He also has had a wind operation an I'm expecting to see further improvement today.

I have had a Trixie win bet on all 3 win bet selections.
 

Dave

Colt
I'm hopefully going to have a few more winners today on this thread

Today, is a new day and hopefully a winning day.



Huntingdon 14:35 - The Late Legend - is a 7 year old gelding by Midnight Legend who is trained by Tom Weston who's yard are in great form having had 2 winners from 2 runners in the past 14 days. Sean Bowen tales the ride again having won on him LTO at Sedgefield only 6 days ago. He has been raised 6lbs by the handicapper but he looks to have a progressive profile and his recent form figures over fences are 221. Today, he faces similar ground conditions as those at Sedgefield and he has a low weight which is never a bad thing. He is dropping back to 3 miles and my only concern would be if the race comes too soon have raced only 6 days ago. That said I don't believe that was a hard race and he should be winning again today.

Huntingdon 14:35 - The Late Legend 1pt win bet @ 13/8


Huntingdon 13:30 - Northern Bound -
is a 6 year old gelding by Fruits of Love, he is trained by Ben Pauling and ridden again by Luca Morgan claiming a useful 7 lbs. LTO he was a convincing winner under a good ride from Luca at Warwick over 2M 4F on good ground. He has the same conditions today and although the handicapper has raised him 6lbs and he is up in class. His win came after only his 2nd start over fences and this is a step up in class but one I feel he is up to. He will have gained experience and now has shown a winning attitude. His speed rating recorded at Warwick certainly suggest that he is up to winning in this class although it will be more competitive.

Huntingdon 13:30 - Northern Bound 1pt win bet @ 3/1


Huntingdon 13:00 - Peur De Rein
- This 7 year old gelding by Kapgarde is bred to be a top quality chaser. He is trained by Oliver Sherwood who's yard are in very good form having had 2 winners from 8 runners in the past fortnight. Jamie Bargary takes the ride today. I was very impressed with the manner in which he won LTO at Uttoxeter on his debut over fences. He jump impressively and fluently and beat a decent field by 5 lengths. The form has since been franked by the runner up. He has similar ground conditions and distance to those at Uttoxeter so all boxes look to be ticked. The big change in his performance has come about through some very good training and a leading edge wind operation. He only had 1 run last season due to this breathing problem which makes him a lightly race horse that is likely to improve again.

The handicapper has raised him for his LTO victory but he doesn't have a lot of weight to carry and he looks like he will be very competitive again today.

Huntingdon 13:00 - Peur De Rein 1pt win bet @ 3/1

I'm also going to do a reverse forecast bet with Nicky Henderson's horse Captain Woodie who I see as the biggest danger. He is by Presenting and was a decent hurdler and this will be his chasing debut. He also has had a wind operation an I'm expecting to see further improvement today.

I have had a Trixie win bet on all 3 win bet selections.
Well after the first two have bombed out dreadful, I will scurry back to my hole and hide.....
 

Dave

Colt
Today my best bet of the day is at Carlisle in the 14:26 race where I have backed Kings Temptation E/W @ 6/1. This 8 year old gelding is by Kings Theatre and is trained by Ben Case who's yard are in winning form and he is ridden today by Sam Twiston-Davies. Sam has ridden the gelding twice and won on him once. This season he has really kicked on and has won 3 races on the spin and is looking to make it a 4 timer this afternoon. All 3 of those winning races have been at Uttoxeter over varying ground conditions, class and distances between 3 miles and 3 miles 2. His wins haven't gone unnoticed by the handicapper and his handicap mark has risen by 20lbs to a mark of 135 for today's race for those 3 wins. Looking at his LTO victory he was racing in a class 3 race and won with some authority and his jumping was very good.

We know he is racing fit and that he handles the ground conditions and distance and the yard are in winning form and he has a top class jockey on board, that ticks 5 boxes for me. The things we don't know is he has never raced on this course before and he has to cope with the weight rise. I think he will cope with both of those.

The current market favourite is Cage of Fear trained by Fergal O'Brien who's yard are in amazing form at the moment having had 6 winners from 20 runners in the past two weeks. Cage of Fear is lightly raced and has only had two chase races where he has finished 2nd and 1st and is open to improvement but for me watching his jumping is a concern. He jumps to the right and he isn't very fluent and it is for these reasons that I'm happy to take him on. The market may have it right but for me I think they have it wrong and I believe Kings Temptation is a better investment especially as I believe he will win this race but if he doesn't he shouldn't be out of the first 3.

Carlisle 14:26 - Kings Temptation 1pt E/W @ 6/1.
 

tacker

Mare
Hi Dave Dave
When i looked at this race last night it was puzzling to me that now this horse is up to a mark of 135 you might think that the young lad (carver) who has ridden it on it's last 2 wins would keep the ride but he is replaced by twiston davies, still he jumps really well and hopefully makes if four today.

ps......Bryan Carver (5) is at wincanton 5.5 today riding GET THE APPEAL for Paul Nicholls, the mare won on her uk debut on this local track 2m, Flopped both times since but on soft ground and back on g-f today 2m 5f off a mark of 111 which strikes me has about right but hard to know but i thought it worth a mention.

good luck.
 

markfinn

Sire
Today my best bet of the day is at Carlisle in the 14:26 race where I have backed Kings Temptation E/W @ 6/1. This 8 year old gelding is by Kings Theatre and is trained by Ben Case who's yard are in winning form and he is ridden today by Sam Twiston-Davies. Sam has ridden the gelding twice and won on him once. This season he has really kicked on and has won 3 races on the spin and is looking to make it a 4 timer this afternoon. All 3 of those winning races have been at Uttoxeter over varying ground conditions, class and distances between 3 miles and 3 miles 2. His wins haven't gone unnoticed by the handicapper and his handicap mark has risen by 20lbs to a mark of 135 for today's race for those 3 wins. Looking at his LTO victory he was racing in a class 3 race and won with some authority and his jumping was very good.

We know he is racing fit and that he handles the ground conditions and distance and the yard are in winning form and he has a top class jockey on board, that ticks 5 boxes for me. The things we don't know is he has never raced on this course before and he has to cope with the weight rise. I think he will cope with both of those.

The current market favourite is Cage of Fear trained by Fergal O'Brien who's yard are in amazing form at the moment having had 6 winners from 20 runners in the past two weeks. Cage of Fear is lightly raced and has only had two chase races where he has finished 2nd and 1st and is open to improvement but for me watching his jumping is a concern. He jumps to the right and he isn't very fluent and it is for these reasons that I'm happy to take him on. The market may have it right but for me I think they have it wrong and I believe Kings Temptation is a better investment especially as I believe he will win this race but if he doesn't he shouldn't be out of the first 3.

Carlisle 14:26 - Kings Temptation 1pt E/W @ 6/1.

I have it has Jockey races- even with no course or distance record - Cage of Fear ticks many box's - I was surprised to see him fav but suppose it means the numbers do apply

1602753011725.png

good luck
 

Dave

Colt
My tracker has been throwing up a number of winners and this is one of my starting points. I have detailed my tracker selections for today below. Please note, I don't back all selections in my tracker. This is a starting point, I look at my comments for each of the horses and then I start to make decision about the type of race, distance, conditions, course, trainer and jockey form and the speed rating for each of the selections.

My bets today are as follows:

Hereford 12:37 - Getaweapon - is a 5 year old mare by Getaway who is trained by Kim Bailey and ridden by David Bass. The stable are in really good form having won 7 from 26 races in the past 14 days. Kim Bailey won this race 12 months ago and is a race that he has targeted. LTO she finished 2nd at Ffos Las in a bumper in her first race under rules. That was a pleasing start and will have blown away the cobwebs and she should have progressed for the run. She now goes over the timber which will suit her. Previously she was quite impressive in a point to point bumper where she showed a good turn of foot and the form of that race has worked out well. The danger is Loughan from the Skelton yard.

Hereford 12:37 - Getaweapon win bet @ 11/8

Lingfield 13:23 - Big Bresil
- is a 5 year old gelding by Blue Bresil and trained by Tom George and ridden by Jonathan Burke. I think the thing that goes in his favour are the new rules related to lockdown. Because the 2019/20 season was cut short it has been decided that horses who lost their novice status from February onwards would remain a novice until the end of November. Big Bresil made a winning debut over hurdles at Exeter in February, having finished runner-up in a bumper at the same track a month earlier. He won his novice hurdle in heavy ground. What I really liked was the fact that when he was challenged he kept drawing on reserves and showed a really good attitude. He looked like he would be really suited to 2M 4F on Heavy ground and he has those conditions today. The negative was that he didn't really jump that well at Exeter but I know he has been schooled to jump fences and I would expect to see him much improved.

Lingfield 13:23 - Big Bresil win bet @ 5/1

Lingfield 15:23 - Getaround
- is a 5 year old gelding again by Getaway. Trained by Ella Pickard and ridden by Bryan Carver claiming 5lbs. I really liked his win at Chepstow in NHF race on his second start. He made all and looked impressive in winning. He then ran at Newbury in a NHF listed race but it was a muddling race and he didn't do so well. He bounced back winning his next two races in Novice Hurdles before the race season finished. On his comeback he finished 4th in the Grade 2 Persian War Novice hurdle at Chepstow over 2 miles the race was won by Paul Nicholls Mcfaboulous on good ground. The race was probably shorter than he would have liked and I believe he is better suited to a cut in the ground and a staying distance. I think Bryan Carver's claim will come in very useful in these conditions. It is a drop in class and he has conditions to suit.

Lingfield 15:23 - Getaround win bet @ 11/4
 

Dave

Colt

AYR 14:20 Elvis Mail -
is a 6 year old gelding by Great Pretender. Trained by Nick Alexander and ridden again by Lucy Alexander who has won 4 races from 9. He won twice in his novice hurdle campaign both wins at Kelso which is his favourite track based on his record. He finished 3rd in a listed race losing to Rogue Vif who we know is talented. Last year he improved and put in some good performances winning 2 from 3 starts in handicap hurdles races. He now embarks on his Novice Chase campaign and looks to have a decent chance of winning this event.

The danger is the other one in my tracker which is Marown who is the current market favourite. He has done all of his racing at Ayr and has a very good record at the course being 2 from 2. He is very lightly raced and this will be his first handicap race and he is going straight into chasing. Although he has a great track record and he is lightly raced and unexposed it seems a big ask to jump from Novice hurdles into a handicap of fences. He has mainly been campaigned over 2M 4F where he always seems to do his best work late on and today he is dropping back to 2 miles. I think he might just find that distance a bit short. I believe that Elvis Mail has more experience and might just take to jumps game that bit better.

Therefore the value in this race for me is with Elvis Mail

AYR 14:20 Elvis Mail - win bet @ 9/4
 

Dave

Colt
AYR 14:20 Elvis Mail - is a 6 year old gelding by Great Pretender. Trained by Nick Alexander and ridden again by Lucy Alexander who has won 4 races from 9. He won twice in his novice hurdle campaign both wins at Kelso which is his favourite track based on his record. He finished 3rd in a listed race losing to Rogue Vif who we know is talented. Last year he improved and put in some good performances winning 2 from 3 starts in handicap hurdles races. He now embarks on his Novice Chase campaign and looks to have a decent chance of winning this event.

The danger is the other one in my tracker which is Marown who is the current market favourite. He has done all of his racing at Ayr and has a very good record at the course being 2 from 2. He is very lightly raced and this will be his first handicap race and he is going straight into chasing. Although he has a great track record and he is lightly raced and unexposed it seems a big ask to jump from Novice hurdles into a handicap of fences. He has mainly been campaigned over 2M 4F where he always seems to do his best work late on and today he is dropping back to 2 miles. I think he might just find that distance a bit short. I believe that Elvis Mail has more experience and might just take to jumps game that bit better.

Therefore the value in this race for me is with Elvis Mail

AYR 14:20 Elvis Mail - win bet @ 9/4
Pleased with the win but that was a very hard watch. Too many heart in the mouth moments. The jockey did very well to stay onboard. I personally would be thinking of heading back over hurdles as stiffer fences would have certainly caught him out.
 
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Dave

Colt
Yesterday was very pleasing as the blog selection Elvis Mail won. If you watched the race you would have had several heart in mouth moments as Elvis's jump was pretty poor and I'm sure stiffer fences would have seen him fall. The jockey Lucy Alexander was simply fantastic she managed to stay on somehow and delivered him to win with relative ease in the end.

The following are my tracker horses for today. Quite a sparse list which helps as I have less to focus on.

Screen Shot 2020-11-12 at 07.14.46.png
My Nap bet of the day is Petibonome in the Clonmel 12:15 Auction Maiden Hurdle over 2 Miles. Petibonome is a 4 year old gelding by Al Namix who is trained by Henry De Bromhead and ridden by Rachael Blackmore. This will be his first race under rules having previously only competed twice in point to point races. On his first race he fell and on his second race he was disqualified after winning for running the wrong side of a hay bale. It was the manner in which he won that has caused excitement about this horse, he quickened clear winning by 12 lengths. Generally you see this type of horse go in a bumper before running in a hurdle race, however he goes straight over hurdles. The yard are very shrewd and they will know if he is ready or not and the market certainly seems to think he is as he is now a shortening market favourite. That is in spite of Willie Mullins having one in the race and he has a fantastic record at Clonmel having won 42 from 97 at the course for a 43% strike rate. I was hoping the Mullins horse would be favourite based on his record and the fact that it has had two runs under rules. That isn't the caseI'm afraid which strengthens my feelings about Petibonome.

I read somewhere that William Hills are quoting 33/1 for him to win any race at the Cheltenham festival which for an unraced horse is very interesting and he could turn out to be quite special. If he wins in style today that price will certainly shrink.

Clonmel 12:15 - Petibonome win bet @ 11/8
 

Dave

Colt
Yesterday was very pleasing as the blog selection Elvis Mail won. If you watched the race you would have had several heart in mouth moments as Elvis's jump was pretty poor and I'm sure stiffer fences would have seen him fall. The jockey Lucy Alexander was simply fantastic she managed to stay on somehow and delivered him to win with relative ease in the end.

The following are my tracker horses for today. Quite a sparse list which helps as I have less to focus on.

View attachment 91619
My Nap bet of the day is Petibonome in the Clonmel 12:15 Auction Maiden Hurdle over 2 Miles. Petibonome is a 4 year old gelding by Al Namix who is trained by Henry De Bromhead and ridden by Rachael Blackmore. This will be his first race under rules having previously only competed twice in point to point races. On his first race he fell and on his second race he was disqualified after winning for running the wrong side of a hay bale. It was the manner in which he won that has caused excitement about this horse, he quickened clear winning by 12 lengths. Generally you see this type of horse go in a bumper before running in a hurdle race, however he goes straight over hurdles. The yard are very shrewd and they will know if he is ready or not and the market certainly seems to think he is as he is now a shortening market favourite. That is in spite of Willie Mullins having one in the race and he has a fantastic record at Clonmel having won 42 from 97 at the course for a 43% strike rate. I was hoping the Mullins horse would be favourite based on his record and the fact that it has had two runs under rules. That isn't the caseI'm afraid which strengthens my feelings about Petibonome.

I read somewhere that William Hills are quoting 33/1 for him to win any race at the Cheltenham festival which for an unraced horse is very interesting and he could turn out to be quite special. If he wins in style today that price will certainly shrink.

Clonmel 12:15 - Petibonome win bet @ 11/8
Well the selection ran below my expectations and based on that performance I can’t see how they believe he is a Cheltenham horse.

Interesting to see the other two tracker selections both won.
 
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