VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.
- Thread starter mtoto
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Chesham
Sire
Hi Mtoto
Trainers who have two runners in a Race ( The second string for this research is based on the data that the First String will be the shorter Odds of the two runners.)
Saeed Bin Suroor, when he has Two Runners at Kempton
1st String 2/22 and -30%ROI
2nd String 6/23 and 139% ROI
Now compare to Roger Varian who does not have that many races where he has entered two Runners
Roger Varian
1st String 4/16 ROI 39%
2nd String 0/20
NEWBURY Sunday, 5 August 2012 GOOD
4.20 British Stallion Studs E.b.f. Chalice Stakes (Listed) (1) (Turf) 1½m5y
£18,714 (3yo+ f+m)
AMBIVALENT 8-6 (Weight For age advantage) Won
ZAFARANA 9-3 Pace Maker
YORK Saturday, 28 July 2012 FIRM
3.10 Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) (1) (Turf) 1¼m88y
£56,710 (3yo+)
SRI PUTRA Won
PEKAN STAR Pace Maker
Good Luck
Chesham
Trainers who have two runners in a Race ( The second string for this research is based on the data that the First String will be the shorter Odds of the two runners.)
Saeed Bin Suroor, when he has Two Runners at Kempton
1st String 2/22 and -30%ROI
2nd String 6/23 and 139% ROI
Now compare to Roger Varian who does not have that many races where he has entered two Runners
Roger Varian
1st String 4/16 ROI 39%
2nd String 0/20
NEWBURY Sunday, 5 August 2012 GOOD
4.20 British Stallion Studs E.b.f. Chalice Stakes (Listed) (1) (Turf) 1½m5y
£18,714 (3yo+ f+m)
AMBIVALENT 8-6 (Weight For age advantage) Won
ZAFARANA 9-3 Pace Maker
YORK Saturday, 28 July 2012 FIRM
3.10 Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) (1) (Turf) 1¼m88y
£56,710 (3yo+)
SRI PUTRA Won
PEKAN STAR Pace Maker
Good Luck
Chesham
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Chesham
Sire
Not something that I have researched but looks like it is worthwhile .
1) from Trainers who use Weight For Age to advantage the younger runner
2) Pace Angles
Good Luck
Chesham
mick
Sire
RE Trainers neglected what i have found is that providing you have made a sound case then there is no call to be apprehensive about backing the longer priced one.Should the stable jockey be on the shorter priced runner then this creates a value situation.
Years ago with the longer entry's and decs it was far more common practise for a trainer to declare and run a top weight in order to "make" the weight for another,yet it was often the case that the former won,or finished in front of the lower weighted horse.
Yes sometimes they are trying it on but often i suspect they do not know themselves,until after the wrong one has won.
Although i cannot really prove it,what i do suspect is that some trainers partner up with each other,in order to create the above situations but still stay below the radar.
Years ago with the longer entry's and decs it was far more common practise for a trainer to declare and run a top weight in order to "make" the weight for another,yet it was often the case that the former won,or finished in front of the lower weighted horse.
Yes sometimes they are trying it on but often i suspect they do not know themselves,until after the wrong one has won.
Although i cannot really prove it,what i do suspect is that some trainers partner up with each other,in order to create the above situations but still stay below the radar.
mtoto
Gelding
Chelt 1:35 Sew On Target 2 Ballygarvey 3 Eastlake
I have this as a tight classy little race. Five runners with form in higher class races,
four of them very closely ranked. Just to make it more confusing two of the four trained
by the same trainer, and both have doubts re distance.
Sew On Target improving, and dropped in class. Course going look fine but distance could
be a problem as he does seem to lack pace. Has advantage over the next two highest rated
as race fit, and doubts about class and course for the other. I'm going small win loaded
place Sew On Target, but have to say I'm more worried about Theatrical Star than anything
else in the race. I 'm not sure why and I can't find/think of the race but I do think this
is a prep for Theatrical Star, but they consider him to be the better of the two.
Be Lucky
I have this as a tight classy little race. Five runners with form in higher class races,
four of them very closely ranked. Just to make it more confusing two of the four trained
by the same trainer, and both have doubts re distance.
Sew On Target improving, and dropped in class. Course going look fine but distance could
be a problem as he does seem to lack pace. Has advantage over the next two highest rated
as race fit, and doubts about class and course for the other. I'm going small win loaded
place Sew On Target, but have to say I'm more worried about Theatrical Star than anything
else in the race. I 'm not sure why and I can't find/think of the race but I do think this
is a prep for Theatrical Star, but they consider him to be the better of the two.
Be Lucky
mtoto
Gelding
Chelt 1:50 1 Burton Port 2 Godsmejudge 3 Quentin Collonges
Chelt 2:30 1 Champion Court 2 Finian's Rainbow 3 Johns Spirit
Chelt 3:00 1 Recession Proof 2 Southfield Theatre 3 Salubrious
1:50 Although this is prize worth winning I do feel the 2nd and third top rated here could well be using this as a prep for the Hennessy. In saying that I also think perhaps this is also a prep for Burton Port, but with him it could be the fixed brush hurdle at Haydock (not sure if a penalty would be involved for a chase win). Don't understand why he is this price as he has had a prep, all be it an unsatisfactory race that turned into a flat race with six hurdles cut out?? He was the one I half expected to have the Hennessy entry. On my figures he doesn't need to run to anything near his best to win this, dis toy with a straight e/w but will stick to small win loaded place.
2:30 Could have this all wrong but I do think Champion Court is flattered by his figures, although there is no doubt he like this course. I think Johns Spirit although young and improving has too find too much to win this. That leaves Finian's Rainbow and as much as I dislike/despise the trainer I can't see any reason to appose him (the horse, not the trainer). I make him the class horse in the race and even if I use his last figures, still 2nd best to a flattered horse. Only had suitable going twice last year and while standing little chance in one of the races showed enough in the other to make him a strong candidate on the right going for more big runs. Small win loaded place.
3:00 This race is full of problems, is Paul Nicholls running the top weight, 3rd best on the rating to help the 2nd best, I have no idea? A bigger worry if I was playing this race would be can Recession Proof run to his figures after so long off the track? It has been a bit like all our yesterdays working these three races, and after going for two oldies I'm giving the youngest one a miss here. He has had a couple of races on the flat so they will have some idea of how he will perform, but I will wait and see. I do rather hope this good horse will/can live up to his potential.
Be Lucky
Chelt 2:30 1 Champion Court 2 Finian's Rainbow 3 Johns Spirit
Chelt 3:00 1 Recession Proof 2 Southfield Theatre 3 Salubrious
1:50 Although this is prize worth winning I do feel the 2nd and third top rated here could well be using this as a prep for the Hennessy. In saying that I also think perhaps this is also a prep for Burton Port, but with him it could be the fixed brush hurdle at Haydock (not sure if a penalty would be involved for a chase win). Don't understand why he is this price as he has had a prep, all be it an unsatisfactory race that turned into a flat race with six hurdles cut out?? He was the one I half expected to have the Hennessy entry. On my figures he doesn't need to run to anything near his best to win this, dis toy with a straight e/w but will stick to small win loaded place.
2:30 Could have this all wrong but I do think Champion Court is flattered by his figures, although there is no doubt he like this course. I think Johns Spirit although young and improving has too find too much to win this. That leaves Finian's Rainbow and as much as I dislike/despise the trainer I can't see any reason to appose him (the horse, not the trainer). I make him the class horse in the race and even if I use his last figures, still 2nd best to a flattered horse. Only had suitable going twice last year and while standing little chance in one of the races showed enough in the other to make him a strong candidate on the right going for more big runs. Small win loaded place.
3:00 This race is full of problems, is Paul Nicholls running the top weight, 3rd best on the rating to help the 2nd best, I have no idea? A bigger worry if I was playing this race would be can Recession Proof run to his figures after so long off the track? It has been a bit like all our yesterdays working these three races, and after going for two oldies I'm giving the youngest one a miss here. He has had a couple of races on the flat so they will have some idea of how he will perform, but I will wait and see. I do rather hope this good horse will/can live up to his potential.
Be Lucky
formtheory
Stallion
Hi Mtoto,
Recession Proof has had a spin on the flat 35 days ago, may have blown some cob webs off?
Recession Proof has had a spin on the flat 35 days ago, may have blown some cob webs off?
mtoto
Gelding
Chelt 3:15 1 Pine Creek 2 Sametegal 3 Get Me Out Of Here
Pine Creek improving but does seem to prefer going right handed second best of the probables and the form is there for everyone too see making his price very tight.
Sametega another improving horse with course etc in his favour. Strongest of the probables.
Get Me Out Of Here class horse in the race but based on quite old form. Would have to show a return to form, or something like form to be considered a danger this season
I'm leaving this race alone because I don't know what to make of Court Minstrel. Take out his last run and he would be a live danger. That last run stops him being 2nd best in the ratings , strongest probable and the excuse/reason given was the going and they seem to be running him on that going again??
Be Lucky
Pine Creek improving but does seem to prefer going right handed second best of the probables and the form is there for everyone too see making his price very tight.
Sametega another improving horse with course etc in his favour. Strongest of the probables.
Get Me Out Of Here class horse in the race but based on quite old form. Would have to show a return to form, or something like form to be considered a danger this season
I'm leaving this race alone because I don't know what to make of Court Minstrel. Take out his last run and he would be a live danger. That last run stops him being 2nd best in the ratings , strongest probable and the excuse/reason given was the going and they seem to be running him on that going again??
Be Lucky
mtoto
Gelding
Ardenhue/ Chesham/
Thought the record shown for Chesham's class rating was quite/very interesting, so the question is have either of you a record of just Cheshams rating. I ask because while I do find the other set of class rating interesting I'm far more interested in looking at just the best record not the three.
Looking back at my records for handicaps I have Hcps = 456 races, top 3 = 166 winners, = 36%
I can see at times we agree often come up with similar results/ranking, have to say that it does surprise me as Chesham uses weight in the formulation of his ratings.
Chesham I'm fairly sure you did explain how you work your rating but I can't find it, could you point me to the posting. If you feel it is too sensitive/important to put out in the open would you consider PMing me. I'm intrigued why/how the weight element operates, bringing our ratings closer.
The other thing re your ratings that does bother me slightly is none hcp form being ignored. I know it is often said none Hcp form doesn't work/relate to hcp form, but surely good form is just that good form. Have to say for a long time I also didn't use none hcp form in hcps but have to say many of my best wins have come when that class of form has been used.
Just watched the Trainer of Court Minstrel being interviewed on Racing UK and he said the horse had no chance as the BHA Handicapper had got him.
I did see that interview and my first reaction was that was what his is doing running the horse in conditions that don't suit saying out loud the handicappers is killing him. Let's see what happens in the new year on flatter courses with possibly a few points knocked of the OR . Same horse same class, better price. My second reaction was now back the horse you thought stood the best chance of making a profit before you started worrying about what he was up to.
Be Lucky
Thought the record shown for Chesham's class rating was quite/very interesting, so the question is have either of you a record of just Cheshams rating. I ask because while I do find the other set of class rating interesting I'm far more interested in looking at just the best record not the three.
Looking back at my records for handicaps I have Hcps = 456 races, top 3 = 166 winners, = 36%
I can see at times we agree often come up with similar results/ranking, have to say that it does surprise me as Chesham uses weight in the formulation of his ratings.
Chesham I'm fairly sure you did explain how you work your rating but I can't find it, could you point me to the posting. If you feel it is too sensitive/important to put out in the open would you consider PMing me. I'm intrigued why/how the weight element operates, bringing our ratings closer.
The other thing re your ratings that does bother me slightly is none hcp form being ignored. I know it is often said none Hcp form doesn't work/relate to hcp form, but surely good form is just that good form. Have to say for a long time I also didn't use none hcp form in hcps but have to say many of my best wins have come when that class of form has been used.
Just watched the Trainer of Court Minstrel being interviewed on Racing UK and he said the horse had no chance as the BHA Handicapper had got him.
I did see that interview and my first reaction was that was what his is doing running the horse in conditions that don't suit saying out loud the handicappers is killing him. Let's see what happens in the new year on flatter courses with possibly a few points knocked of the OR . Same horse same class, better price. My second reaction was now back the horse you thought stood the best chance of making a profit before you started worrying about what he was up to.
Be Lucky
Chesham
Sire
Hi Mtoto
The Class ratings AR publishes each night for the following days racing do not use weight or weight for age in their formulation.
The reason I use handicap form for the ratings is that the Official Handicapper has in theory weighted each horse to have an equal chance. (Class is not equal though, and even if a horse is weighted to give it an equal chance the pace that a class horse can maintain at very stages of the race, usually undoes the horse lacking class)
Like any set of ratings, Class ratings are just a numerical guide, nothing more. Your own Ratings will sometimes highlight similar horses as you are producing ratings that reflect class and I don't think it matters at which point in a horses career you take that class rating from, as you know from experience if a horse is likely to outclass its rivals in a particular race and has conditions in its favour.
Good Luck
Chesham
The Class ratings AR publishes each night for the following days racing do not use weight or weight for age in their formulation.
The reason I use handicap form for the ratings is that the Official Handicapper has in theory weighted each horse to have an equal chance. (Class is not equal though, and even if a horse is weighted to give it an equal chance the pace that a class horse can maintain at very stages of the race, usually undoes the horse lacking class)
Like any set of ratings, Class ratings are just a numerical guide, nothing more. Your own Ratings will sometimes highlight similar horses as you are producing ratings that reflect class and I don't think it matters at which point in a horses career you take that class rating from, as you know from experience if a horse is likely to outclass its rivals in a particular race and has conditions in its favour.
Good Luck
Chesham
mick
Sire
A most interesting discussion guys.If my top rated obtained its rating from a non hcap then i swerve the race.Under these circumstances i do not wish to back the horse but likewise do not want to bet against it.Perhaps this is wrong but its what i feel comfortable with.
I produce my own ratings and extensive back checking shows that they are at their most accurate when taken from similar situations to which they are being applied.So the ideal situation for myself would be a rating obtained from the same or higher class with compatible course type and going.
I produce my own ratings and extensive back checking shows that they are at their most accurate when taken from similar situations to which they are being applied.So the ideal situation for myself would be a rating obtained from the same or higher class with compatible course type and going.
mtoto
Gelding
The Class ratings AR publishes each night for the following days racing do not use weight or weight for age in their formulation.
Chesham,
Thanks for the reply, but have to say I'm more than a little confused!! If the adjustment isn't for weight I'm at lost to see what else would need adjusting. I know we all work indifferent ways, but this has me beat. For me class is just that class and I can't see how/why an adjustment is needed. In saying that there are circumstances where I wouldn't just take the class of a horse on face value, to gain the class of a race the horse must follow certain requirement. However that is a plain yes or no and no other adjustments are needed. As stated the other day there rare times when I think a horses has been flattered by its rating even when it has fulfilled all the requirements but that is based on the proven attributes of the close up finishers i.e. even though it was a true run race time wise, the 2nd/3rd horses didn't perform to their best because of late mistake, track not really suitable. etc. But even here the figures aren't altered it just comes down to race reading for the final selection.
Can I ask do you have any record of the results for the top 3/4 in your ratings, and do you use them before making your selections?
Mick,
As I said for a long time I didn't use ratings obtained from none hcps in hcps. But I did find I was missing out on some very good winners, a horse called
Russian Revival back in the late 90's made me change my mind. I just couldn't see why it was such a big price when it was head and shoulders above every thing else class, I just had to back it!! Since then I have found many nice winners at some silly prices a couple that stand out in my memory are Aaim To Please 66/1, In times Eye was my biggest ever bet in 03, and my biggest bet this season Harris Tweed, but lost a bit of it back when they pulled it out of the Ebor . I do agree 100% about the class and conditions being needed, and each to their own as long as we win is the ONLY really important thing, not how we arrive at our selections. I look at all the folk that appear to make money out of backing in sprints and on the a/w. I can only shake my head in wonderment as I can't make either work for me, and folk say sprints and a/w favour s/f .
Be Lucky
Chesham,
Thanks for the reply, but have to say I'm more than a little confused!! If the adjustment isn't for weight I'm at lost to see what else would need adjusting. I know we all work indifferent ways, but this has me beat. For me class is just that class and I can't see how/why an adjustment is needed. In saying that there are circumstances where I wouldn't just take the class of a horse on face value, to gain the class of a race the horse must follow certain requirement. However that is a plain yes or no and no other adjustments are needed. As stated the other day there rare times when I think a horses has been flattered by its rating even when it has fulfilled all the requirements but that is based on the proven attributes of the close up finishers i.e. even though it was a true run race time wise, the 2nd/3rd horses didn't perform to their best because of late mistake, track not really suitable. etc. But even here the figures aren't altered it just comes down to race reading for the final selection.
Can I ask do you have any record of the results for the top 3/4 in your ratings, and do you use them before making your selections?
Mick,
As I said for a long time I didn't use ratings obtained from none hcps in hcps. But I did find I was missing out on some very good winners, a horse called
Russian Revival back in the late 90's made me change my mind. I just couldn't see why it was such a big price when it was head and shoulders above every thing else class, I just had to back it!! Since then I have found many nice winners at some silly prices a couple that stand out in my memory are Aaim To Please 66/1, In times Eye was my biggest ever bet in 03, and my biggest bet this season Harris Tweed, but lost a bit of it back when they pulled it out of the Ebor . I do agree 100% about the class and conditions being needed, and each to their own as long as we win is the ONLY really important thing, not how we arrive at our selections. I look at all the folk that appear to make money out of backing in sprints and on the a/w. I can only shake my head in wonderment as I can't make either work for me, and folk say sprints and a/w favour s/f .
Be Lucky
Chesham
Sire
Hi Mtoto
If you go to the Inner Sanctum and click on the Heading Ratings and Utilities, this brings up the page which has two Heading
Ratings
Utilities
If you click on utilities you will see a thread marked
Class Rating Queries
AR has researched every handicap race that has been run in the UK & Eire and checked out the how the Class ratings have performed since 2006, for all Turf & AW Handicaps, All NH Handicap Chases and Handicap Hurdles
Personally I use them as a Guide and see which races may be of interest and then delve further into the race.
Good Luck
Chesham
If you go to the Inner Sanctum and click on the Heading Ratings and Utilities, this brings up the page which has two Heading
Ratings
Utilities
If you click on utilities you will see a thread marked
Class Rating Queries
AR has researched every handicap race that has been run in the UK & Eire and checked out the how the Class ratings have performed since 2006, for all Turf & AW Handicaps, All NH Handicap Chases and Handicap Hurdles
Personally I use them as a Guide and see which races may be of interest and then delve further into the race.
Good Luck
Chesham
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mick
Sire
Hi mtoto i agree there is no right or wrong way,its what works for us as individual backers which counts.What we have confidence in and feel comfortable with,but its still interesting to compare and debate.?
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mtoto
Gelding
Ascot 3:50 1 Specialagent Alfie 2 Whitby Jack 3 Brinestine
A messy little race with too many ifs and buts!!
Hammersly Lake I can find no logical way of rating this horse but don't feel it can just be ignored.
Dunraven Storm on data base but best form is quite old. On return to track didn't perform too badly but no where near it's best. This looks like a prep race to me.
Brinestine Strongest of the three probables but like the other two Discovery Bay and Milord has plenty to find
Specialagent Alfie and Whitby Jack both have proven form in higher class. Although Specialagent Alfie does just about qualify as a consistent horse it isn't easy to see. He does have form on a stiff track and his last race could be looked on as a prep. However the same could be said for a couple of the other runners in this as they also ran in the same race. Leaving it alone
Not to worry tomorrow looks as if there could be something of interest, in the mean time back to studying the results d/base trying out a few tweaks.
Be Lucky
A messy little race with too many ifs and buts!!
Hammersly Lake I can find no logical way of rating this horse but don't feel it can just be ignored.
Dunraven Storm on data base but best form is quite old. On return to track didn't perform too badly but no where near it's best. This looks like a prep race to me.
Brinestine Strongest of the three probables but like the other two Discovery Bay and Milord has plenty to find
Specialagent Alfie and Whitby Jack both have proven form in higher class. Although Specialagent Alfie does just about qualify as a consistent horse it isn't easy to see. He does have form on a stiff track and his last race could be looked on as a prep. However the same could be said for a couple of the other runners in this as they also ran in the same race. Leaving it alone
Not to worry tomorrow looks as if there could be something of interest, in the mean time back to studying the results d/base trying out a few tweaks.
Be Lucky
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