Hi Mtoto
RE On a count I made it 119 days racing on the seven tracks VDW said use, 119*2 is plenty/too many possible races to keep track off.
How many of those 119 X 2 would have met the Speed Fig Requirement that you think follows on when adding horses to the List from the present season of the year that VDW was covering. Quote that you reminded me of
Using the flat speed figures for 1987 three-year-olds and upwards. The first horse of note in the alphabetical list was Abathatc with a speed figure of 81 over 5 furlongs at York on yielding going."
Further down the same page he then goes on to say "It is also practical to increase the list from the current season's running and why not start with the first meeting of the 1988 season at Doncaster.
Why use the Returned SP must = top three, if it was not important, surely he could have used another filter if it was a case of reducing the number of qualifiers for the list.
With the Roushayd last three race profile why did VDW bother to include the SP of the Winner from those 3 races, VDW never wrote anything just for the sake of it. The price of the winner of those 3 races according to your thinking adds nothing to the form, so why did VDW feel the need to include that data ????
RE You are quite correct Braashee wouldn't have made my d/base and neither would Roushayd, but it's my d/base and it works/measures class using something that wasn't readily available available to VDW.
Accepted and I think that your method of measuring Ability is sound, but surely anything which may increase your Win Strike Rate and allow you to safely move on from Win and Loaded Place with more confidence. You have hit some big price winners where the Win part of the bet could have maximised profits, but was underfunded Drumshambo looks the best way to show a profit so a small win loaded place.
LTO Race for Drumshambo was won by the 2nd fav and Fav was 2nd, the previous two races were won by the Fav.
I presume that you are coming off Handicap mark of top weight 152 in the Warwick Race for Drumshambo's Abilty Rating, here the favourite won. Who LTO was in a race won by
Dynaste, Odds on Favourite who had won his previous race when Odds on Fav.
VDW's Platform require the user to look backwards with regards Consistent Form, Class and to form an opinion of capability, Probability is the odds about an event past or future, then is it not possible that if the probility of a past race has worked out as it should have before the race was run, then providing the class of competitor is sound, the Form from that event is most reliable. I have already demonstrated with Ten Year Stats with the best race class that the SP (Probability) of past events does appear to be a Positve when looking at the Probability of a future event.
With weather forecasting, artificial intelligent computer program's are constantly testing the probability from past probability that the programme had previously churned out. bayes theorem uses the likelihood values of past events.
VDW slipped in something like "the odds are it" within one of his lines and something about being overlooked. The method that you use was established from a past race that To Agori Mou ran in, what was the Probility of the horse that won? Where To Agori earned his Abilty Rating.
Good Luck
Chesham
