• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

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Aint 1:00 1 Lamb Or Cod 2 Party Rock 3 Capellanus
Sand 1:20 1 Drum Valley 2 Bourne 3 Oscar Magic
Chep 2:00 1 Quartz De Thaix 2 Triptico 3 Mountainous
Aint 2:05 1 Walkon 2 Roberto Goldback 3 Storm Survivor
Sand 2:25 1 Specialagent Alfie 2 Radmores Revenge 3 Waterunder
Sand 3:00 1 Somersby 2 Captain Conan 3 Sire De Grugy
Aint 3:15 1 Quincy Des Pictons 2 Midnight Appeal 3 Plein Pouvoir.

It is all very well just posting up ratings, as ratings are only the first part of the puzzle, it is what we do or rather how we use the ratings that the important bit!! The thing I have noticed after joining this forum where several different sets of ratings are put up is although the ratings are formulated from different angles how often they agree. The only time there are any real serious differences is when the last race plays a major part ie the race was a none hcp now a hcp, horse didn't finish etc. The difference in selections seems to be down to the individual betting style of the person using them.
I look at my rating and the first thing I do is look at the prices on offer today the first race I cross out is Sand 3:00. the rating put up show the three most likely horses too win, but every/most agree so there is no real value to be had. I then have a quick look to see if any of the three are stand out as not being selected by the betting and see if I agree with the possible reason for the horse being ignored. If I can see the reason and agree I cross that horse out, however at times the only reason I can see are the well know reasons too much weight, poor/bad last run, stats, and sometimes just down to trainer/jockey not being fashionable, well known. In truth these are the horses I'm looking for, and more so now as I can see my class rating isn't a one off and often other methods still show/confirm my rating. So I'm left with a class horse that shows well in the ratings but that at times is being ignored for no real logical reason other than some preconceived ideas.

1:00 two horses with proven form in higher class both failed in their last race, one trained by a not so well known name. Both reasonable prices, so some would make a book. However that's not how I like to work so I try to find a logical way of splitting the two. Ones best form has been shown on undulating courses, Lamb Or Cod. The other has shown his best form on this course, Party Rock. For me this gives the advantage to PR, so is this a race he is going to be trying to win? The course and going look ok, this is a drop in class from last run, change of jockey reducing weight but with winning experience on horse. At around 18/1 for the win and 7/2 the place it is the sort of bet I;m looking for.

Other horses I'm interested in today are 2:00 Quartz De Thaix 2:25 Specialagent Alfie, and 3:15 Quincy Des Pictons.
All have proven form in higher class and all are much bigger prices than I think they should be.

Be Lucky
 
Excellently put.
The way I look at the race using the scraper is to get the right blend of price/class/ weight.
The beauty of the scraper is it will also track any influences of the betting.
None of this is guaranteed but as you say we need to look at the reason to use the ratings other than purely one horse is rated higher than another.
 
Hi Mtoto

I have Party Rock 2nd Top rated on Class but do feel he is too high in the handicap and needs to drop down.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
If you use ratings solely as one horse is rated higher than the other then its a short ride to the poor house. Like Minded and Party Rock were definitely worth a closer look in the above race.You can check both Chesham's and my ratings and they would both ask you to investigate further. Further investigation showed there were negatives but as a tool for narrowing the field, I feel both sets of ratings are invaluable.
 
Chelt 2:10 1 Quentin Collonges 2 Burton Port 3 Knockara Beau
Chelt 3:15 1 Edgardo Sol 2 Thomas Crapper 3 Return Spring

2:10 Quentin Collonges goes for this rather than his Donny entry tomorrow and have to say that does surprise me a little. His best performance was at Don although he has shown he can handle stiff courses. I have him as the consistent class horse and strongest probable. I do worry this is a prep for the Welsh National as this does look a little short distance wise The overall class horse Burton Port seems to have lost his way and can't be backed until he shows he is on the way back. Knockara Beau the second strongest probable can handle the course but looks a little out classed today and price too tight for a place bet. Quentin Collonges small win loaded place.

3:15 Edgardo Sol the only runner with proven form in higher class the worry is that was recorded over a much shorter distance. Track and going look fine, trying to work out if the lack of pace is an advantage. The strongest of the three probables Thomas Crapper, has form but needs to find something class wise, and the next two probables Return Spring and Southfield Theatre in that order, hold their rankings on stats and potential. Edgardo Sol small win loaded place,

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

I think the weight and distance is going to be a problem for Edgardo Sol against younger runners who can inject pace.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Chelt 1:15 1 Drumshambo 2 Tanks For That 3 Eastlake
Don 1:35 1 Runswick Royal 2 Robbie 3 Franciscan
Chelt 2:25 1 Johns Spirit 2 Colour Squadron 3 Salut Flo
Don 3:15 1 Lost Glory 2 De Boitron 3 Bear's Affair

The 1:35 is the race that interests me most today. Runswick Royal is a horse I had ear marked to look out for this season and he is well clear on the ratings, mine and the official ratings. The only horse in the race with proven form in higher class, and with conditions looking favorable. He is a much bigger price than he would be if he had a more fashionable trainer when the form is looked at. It also pleases me to see he is given good ratings in the other rating shown on this forum thus confirming his recent form agrees with his best form giving him a good chance . Small win loaded place.
The 2:25 is also of some interest as while I can see the three top rated all have a good chance, the top two are well touted and the form is there for all to see, but not many horses win three on the bounce in good hcps and the other good as he maybe has still to win. The third best in has plenty to prove as this is his first run for a very long time. The horse that catches my eye is Sew On Target, 4th best in the ratings. Today he is back running over the distance he has shown his best form over, on the same course, with the same underfoot conditions, And if weight does/can effect the result of races he is quite well in with the top two rated. Straight e/w bet

Be Lucky
 
Hay 1:00 1 As I Am 2 Carole's Spirit 3 Tonvadosa
Hay 2:05 1 Tartak 2 Triptico 3 Wicklow Lad
Ascot 3:00 1 Triolo D'Alene 2 Bless The Wings 3 Storm Survivor
Ascot 3:35 1 Pine Creek 2 Dell' Arca 3 City Slicker

3:35 After watching Pine Creek's last race a couple of times I still can't make up my mind if the horse falling in front of him did effect the result for him or not. I had him top rated for that race and gave him a miss for two reasons 1 he seems better going right handed and 2 he had just put in his best ever performance and was returning quite quickly to the track. Today he is back right handed, and has more time to recover. If the ground isn't too heavy I think he will run well and be placed at least. Dell' Arca, the second best on the figures and second strongest probable has to be a big danger. Like the third best in and strongest probable, City Slicker he is very hard to weigh up but with both I think other factors apart from form are influencing their prices. Pine Creek small win loaded place.

I have been a bit quite as I have been trawling through my results d/base trying to see if there is anything I can do to eliminate some of the losers. I have been looking at all the things folk say I don't pay enough attention too mainly weight and past market positions. With the market I really can't find anything that says the market past or present makes a significant difference to the results/profits. With weight I still can't see how more or less weight carried on the day can/will effect the class of said horse, but I can understand the logic that more weight will make it harder. So has anyone some suggestions/ideas of how to work weight into my calculations. A horse runs it's best race in a for arguments sake a class 105 race carrying 8st 9lbs, how much weight would it take to hinder/stop that horse repeating that performance again?

It is also interesting folk like Chesham are thinking about trying Horsebase as I'm toying with trying it. The one thing that bothers me about it though is will a simple country boy like me understand and be able to use it properly? I read some of the post on here and the things that are being done are pure magic too me!! I think I must have been born in the wrong era, as I still can't even sort out the remote on the telly let alone work these clever data bases. My last exercise was trying to work out the days since a run based on the dates, I went to help on the spread sheet and in all honesty it might of well be written in Chinese. I followed the diagram faithfully and NOTHING. In the end I went to U Tube and some kind chap explained in plain English (with pictures) and Geronimo it works. Now for pivot tables, he said laughingly.:help:

Enough of my rambling just to wish you and yours a happy Christmas and a prosperous new year :drinks:

Be Lucky
 
Hi mtoto,my take on your question.I believe that class is more important than weight but for myself the deciding factor is frequently not the extra weight carried but rather the increase in OR which prevents a win.If you wish to filter out some of your losers via this angle i would suggest you audit them to see if there is any connection between an increase in OR in comparison to the last win and or the race you took your rating from.

You would need to look at different permutations of your own bets ,but as an example (based on long term audits of my own wagers) i now tend to view with great caution any horse on the flat who is top on my figs but is running off an OR of > 5lbs higher than its last win.Yes this sometimes costs me winners but also enables a swerve on plenty of losers.

Of course we should never stop looking at and trying to improve what we do,but i feel the fact that you have the confidence to ignore weight gives you a market edge which is proven via the SPs of your winners.

Good luck with Pine creek,my only bet today 2.05 Loch ba (Not in your top 3 Help). :)
 
What is needed for horse to have the best chance of winning?
Seriously - answer the above question logically and there you have it!
Then after all that if the race isn't run to suit your stuffed!
:doh:
 
Weth 1:45 1 Tullamore Dew 2 Auroras Encore 3 Cape Tribulation
Winc 2:15 1 Party Rock 2 Champagne West 3 Seebright
Kemp 3:10 1 Long Run 2 Menorah 3 Cue Card

Nothing appeals. Some birthday!! Have to just hope United win and City and Liverpool draw. With my luck the family that always arrive just as the racing starts will decide this is the year they will give it a miss.

Went to sign up for the free trail of the Horse Base and he isn't taking on anyone at the moment :hunter:

Be Lucky
 
Free Trial
As a temporary measure, we are currently not accepting new membership. Please check back soon.

Haven't contacted them just saw this and thought I would wait until after the holiday.

Be Lucky
 
2:00 Kemp 1 Mickie 2 Cannon Fodder 3 Utopie Des Bordes
3:05 Kemp 1 Polisky 2 Bally Legend 3 Niceonefrank

Nothing again today.

Polisky in the 3:05 came closest as he is well clear class wise. I have decided this is a prep for something else. Probably Ascot some time in the future.

Thanks for the birthday greetings :hi: but they (the birthdays) seem to be coming round faster each year and it gets a little frightening. So I don't like to talk about them :crazy:

Be Lucky
 
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