formtheory
Stallion
I like Arkrose in the 3.50, I have bet win and place. 11.0 and 3.75.
VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.
- Thread starter mtoto
- Start date
- Status
formtheory
Stallion
Nice pick Bold Gait!
Well done!
Well done!
Chesham
Sire
The Class Ratings worked out well at Exeter 3/3 Top Rated
Somersby 9/2 (Was in this same race 20111, when trained by Henrietta Knight)
Gas Line Boy 11/4 (Bold Gait Highlighted this one)
Royal Native 8/1
Robs Last Run Figures also had GL and RN coming out top, I think I might have to take more interest in NH Racing, having not bothered with it for years
Good Luck
Chesham
Somersby 9/2 (Was in this same race 20111, when trained by Henrietta Knight)
Gas Line Boy 11/4 (Bold Gait Highlighted this one)
Royal Native 8/1
Robs Last Run Figures also had GL and RN coming out top, I think I might have to take more interest in NH Racing, having not bothered with it for years
Good Luck
Chesham
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ArkRoyal
Administrator
Hopefully it will be a chance to get something back from the forum after everything you have put in
mtoto
Gelding
What was V.D.W showing?
An interesting question, and one I think is nearly impossible to solve working in isolation. You need other people to bounce the ideas of, and different perspectives to come into the equation. Working by oneself often leads into coming to the wrong conclusion time and again, a bit like reading something you have written and not being able to see the mistakes because you know what you meant to say.
While I agree the Pegwell Bay example is interesting I wouldn't couple it with Roushayd, for me it is closer to the Erin. The Erin is based on consistency as is Pegwell Bay but it shows there is more to consistency than just adding up the form figures. Roushayd is about improvement, both of these methods are based on the same important element CLASS using the win prize money as the yardstick, however they do have different triggers, for one it is consistency the other improvement.
Working with others doesn't mean you just accept they are correct but it does make you think and check out other ideas. I started in a group many years ago and have checked out many different ideas, some worked, some didn't, but it was interesting trying them out and I think some off us learned some useful lessons. The thing I find the most interesting is how few are still using these/their ideas, not many. Of hand I only know of one of those original people who are making money out of backing horses, and he only operates in a very small way. The last I heard Guest was relying on laying horse to make money, and the rest just seem to have given up, although I like to think they cracked it and are now enjoying the hard work in some sunny climate.
Lee suggested the first seven examples and Systematic Betting is the way forward, and I agree. I'm not sure if we came to that conclusion for the same reasons, my reason for think it is because I think dear old Mr Peach had far less if any impute into those articles. The other thing I suggest a lot of thought is put into is the examples. For me they have all been chosen to explain the logic but all of them are also chosen as there can be more than one different interpretation on them and don't take them at face value as even with them bits are NOT explained.
For me the one they all said had it wrong I'm still in there, and I'm happy that the VDW logic is working for me.
Oh well back to the boring bit going through the past working/results looking for clues that may or may not be there.
Be Lucky
An interesting question, and one I think is nearly impossible to solve working in isolation. You need other people to bounce the ideas of, and different perspectives to come into the equation. Working by oneself often leads into coming to the wrong conclusion time and again, a bit like reading something you have written and not being able to see the mistakes because you know what you meant to say.
While I agree the Pegwell Bay example is interesting I wouldn't couple it with Roushayd, for me it is closer to the Erin. The Erin is based on consistency as is Pegwell Bay but it shows there is more to consistency than just adding up the form figures. Roushayd is about improvement, both of these methods are based on the same important element CLASS using the win prize money as the yardstick, however they do have different triggers, for one it is consistency the other improvement.
Working with others doesn't mean you just accept they are correct but it does make you think and check out other ideas. I started in a group many years ago and have checked out many different ideas, some worked, some didn't, but it was interesting trying them out and I think some off us learned some useful lessons. The thing I find the most interesting is how few are still using these/their ideas, not many. Of hand I only know of one of those original people who are making money out of backing horses, and he only operates in a very small way. The last I heard Guest was relying on laying horse to make money, and the rest just seem to have given up, although I like to think they cracked it and are now enjoying the hard work in some sunny climate.
Lee suggested the first seven examples and Systematic Betting is the way forward, and I agree. I'm not sure if we came to that conclusion for the same reasons, my reason for think it is because I think dear old Mr Peach had far less if any impute into those articles. The other thing I suggest a lot of thought is put into is the examples. For me they have all been chosen to explain the logic but all of them are also chosen as there can be more than one different interpretation on them and don't take them at face value as even with them bits are NOT explained.
For me the one they all said had it wrong I'm still in there, and I'm happy that the VDW logic is working for me.
Oh well back to the boring bit going through the past working/results looking for clues that may or may not be there.
Be Lucky
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Bold Gait
Mare
For me the one they all said had it wrong I'm still in there, and I'm happy that the VDW logic is working for me.
Quite true Mtoto, as you have been around a lot longer than many on forums (If you don't mind me saying so!!) and your 'take' on it certainly works for you.
I was on the Gummy forum, but the explosive personalities, rancour and downright bad manners made me leave after a while...well in fact I think I lasted two weeks LOL
JIB (John in Brazil) was a personality on there who could really write with wit and at times acidity. He had some sound ideas about racing though. Do you know what happened to him??
Best wishes BG
Quite true Mtoto, as you have been around a lot longer than many on forums (If you don't mind me saying so!!) and your 'take' on it certainly works for you.
I was on the Gummy forum, but the explosive personalities, rancour and downright bad manners made me leave after a while...well in fact I think I lasted two weeks LOL
JIB (John in Brazil) was a personality on there who could really write with wit and at times acidity. He had some sound ideas about racing though. Do you know what happened to him??
Best wishes BG
mtoto
Gelding
JIB (John in Brazil) was a personality on there who could really write with wit and at times acidity. He had some sound ideas about racing though. Do you know what happened to him??
Bold Gait,
I agree about JIB he was a very interesting chap. Sorry to say I lost touch with him a few years back. Last I heard he had been ill with malaria, I think, but he was always have trouble one way or the other with his internet signal. So not hearing from him hopefully is/was down to the signal problems and nothing more serious.
John was a brilliant advert as to why forums can work. It started off with him taking the rise and getting quite angry with the secrecy, but when he later joined the private forum things changed quite dramatically. In that forum VDW and all/any aspect of racing was discussed quite openly with many pre race selections. I think he found this refreshing, and a bit of a surprise as he like many others didn't think VDW fans every gave pre race selection and here there where plenty. I think he was also surprised at how much thought went into the selections and it wasn't just being used as a system.
I was reading one of his old posts just the other day and then you mentioned him, small world.
The folk talking about their trip to Ascot reminded me of my last visit to a race course, Best Mates third gold cup. The bit that stays in my mind is the bollocking I got from the wife. Thousands cheering home Best Mate and one lone voice screaming for Sir Rembrandt, there's always one why does that one always have to be you was the parting shot as she stormed off. She didn't object when we went out for a meal on the strength of it though.
There nothing for me again today
Be Lucky
Bold Gait,
I agree about JIB he was a very interesting chap. Sorry to say I lost touch with him a few years back. Last I heard he had been ill with malaria, I think, but he was always have trouble one way or the other with his internet signal. So not hearing from him hopefully is/was down to the signal problems and nothing more serious.
John was a brilliant advert as to why forums can work. It started off with him taking the rise and getting quite angry with the secrecy, but when he later joined the private forum things changed quite dramatically. In that forum VDW and all/any aspect of racing was discussed quite openly with many pre race selections. I think he found this refreshing, and a bit of a surprise as he like many others didn't think VDW fans every gave pre race selection and here there where plenty. I think he was also surprised at how much thought went into the selections and it wasn't just being used as a system.
I was reading one of his old posts just the other day and then you mentioned him, small world.
The folk talking about their trip to Ascot reminded me of my last visit to a race course, Best Mates third gold cup. The bit that stays in my mind is the bollocking I got from the wife. Thousands cheering home Best Mate and one lone voice screaming for Sir Rembrandt, there's always one why does that one always have to be you was the parting shot as she stormed off. She didn't object when we went out for a meal on the strength of it though.
There nothing for me again today
Be Lucky
Bold Gait
Mare
Thanks for the update Mtoto on JIB - hopefully he is OK
Shouting at racecourses can be a minefield as you say!
I used to travel the Northern racecourses and head down south as far as Doncaster (LOL) with a few friends. One day I had headed North to Newcastle and it was the Northumberland Plate Day. I had had a lousy time of it and I had placed £10 win on Bold Gait @ 12/1 in the Plate. It had a stump of weight as well. Lo and behold it weaved through after the pack rounded the last bend and duly won. I never realised that not a soul had backed it where I was standing and I was separated from my mates. I started shouting as soon as it was mentioned as moving through " Come on!" I stood up. "Come on!" I leapt in the air "Yes! Yes! Thank you God Thank you! (I think I had an eff in there as well!) I then stopped and looked around and it was silence and nearby faces staring at me - I shouted sorry and scuttled off to get my winnings. The bookie smiled when he gave me the £130, as I think hardly a punter had backed it. Well of course, that is the story behind my user name!
Talking of big wins - I was with a group of friends recently at a Northern racetrack on a 'Gentleman's sporting day' (booze up) when a mate came over and said he had just placed a bet on the big race. It was called Scatter Dice and he had £5 e.w. on the Tote. I asked him why he had picked it and he said "I always back that jockey Silvestre - you know -What's his second name again" The rest is history and he showed me his winning ticket £438. LOL
Shouting at racecourses can be a minefield as you say!
I used to travel the Northern racecourses and head down south as far as Doncaster (LOL) with a few friends. One day I had headed North to Newcastle and it was the Northumberland Plate Day. I had had a lousy time of it and I had placed £10 win on Bold Gait @ 12/1 in the Plate. It had a stump of weight as well. Lo and behold it weaved through after the pack rounded the last bend and duly won. I never realised that not a soul had backed it where I was standing and I was separated from my mates. I started shouting as soon as it was mentioned as moving through " Come on!" I stood up. "Come on!" I leapt in the air "Yes! Yes! Thank you God Thank you! (I think I had an eff in there as well!) I then stopped and looked around and it was silence and nearby faces staring at me - I shouted sorry and scuttled off to get my winnings. The bookie smiled when he gave me the £130, as I think hardly a punter had backed it. Well of course, that is the story behind my user name!
Talking of big wins - I was with a group of friends recently at a Northern racetrack on a 'Gentleman's sporting day' (booze up) when a mate came over and said he had just placed a bet on the big race. It was called Scatter Dice and he had £5 e.w. on the Tote. I asked him why he had picked it and he said "I always back that jockey Silvestre - you know -What's his second name again" The rest is history and he showed me his winning ticket £438. LOL
mtoto
Gelding
Muss 2:35 1 Runswick Royal 2 Saint Thomas 3 Willow's Saviour
Muss 3:05 1 So Fine 2 Golden Sparkle 3 Marmas
Starting with the 3:05 as I can't see anything in it for me. So Fine is the only horse in the race with form and his form is proven in a higher class. Not only doesn't he interest me on price his best or better form has been on undulating tracks and stiff ones at that. the next three in the rating are the probables in ranking order but all of them have plenty to find class wise. Of these Golden Sparkle looks the most likely, she will act on the track where are doubts about Marmas. An eye catching runner Monetary Fund who fails on all the important factors apart from being in the forecast. Couple of big pluses though are she is a course winner, stable having winners, and they have a straight line form wise on the top rated. No bet as the prices don't appeal.
2:35 Runswick Royal is another with proven form in a higher class and course etc all look suitable. My worry here is is this just a prep as he looks capable of much better things? Pretty sure it isn't a prep for Cheltenham as the form says he is best on flat speed courses and I can't really work out what suitable big races are coming up. Read somewhere the Fighting Fifth was/had being considered but that does seem a bit too high. Although if they are serious he will have to win this doing hand springs, and the handicap mark wouldn't be a worry. The next two in the rating again are the 1st and 2nd probables and again they have plenty to find form and class wise. My problem is I know nothing about the owner/trainer are they really confident enough to risk blowing the handicap mark? Just think they may be going for it so small win loaded place.
Be Lucky
Muss 3:05 1 So Fine 2 Golden Sparkle 3 Marmas
Starting with the 3:05 as I can't see anything in it for me. So Fine is the only horse in the race with form and his form is proven in a higher class. Not only doesn't he interest me on price his best or better form has been on undulating tracks and stiff ones at that. the next three in the rating are the probables in ranking order but all of them have plenty to find class wise. Of these Golden Sparkle looks the most likely, she will act on the track where are doubts about Marmas. An eye catching runner Monetary Fund who fails on all the important factors apart from being in the forecast. Couple of big pluses though are she is a course winner, stable having winners, and they have a straight line form wise on the top rated. No bet as the prices don't appeal.
2:35 Runswick Royal is another with proven form in a higher class and course etc all look suitable. My worry here is is this just a prep as he looks capable of much better things? Pretty sure it isn't a prep for Cheltenham as the form says he is best on flat speed courses and I can't really work out what suitable big races are coming up. Read somewhere the Fighting Fifth was/had being considered but that does seem a bit too high. Although if they are serious he will have to win this doing hand springs, and the handicap mark wouldn't be a worry. The next two in the rating again are the 1st and 2nd probables and again they have plenty to find form and class wise. My problem is I know nothing about the owner/trainer are they really confident enough to risk blowing the handicap mark? Just think they may be going for it so small win loaded place.
Be Lucky
mtoto
Gelding
Winc 1:30 1 Call Me A Star 2 As I Am 3 Mrs Peachey
Don 1:50 1 Tariq Too 2 Levitate 3 Showboating
Sand 2:30 1 Ackertac 2 Grandads Horse 3 Hector's Choice
Winc 2:40 1 Pantxoa 2 Poungach 3 Standing Ovation
Don 3:00 1 Jabhaat 2 Making Eyes 3 Princess Loulou
Don 3:35 1 Aiken 2 Lahaag 3 Hi There
Started off thinking Saturday would be a quite day wrong!! All three races at Donny look interesting, and the 2:40 at Wincanton
1:50 As much as I like Tariq Too I'm leaving him alone. Course distance etc all look fine for me the major doubt has to be the jockey, in a big field like this on a horse that cam play up at the start. There are safer bets to be had today/
2:40 Pantxoa the right handed flat(er) track should suit better than Cheltenham last time out. One of only two in this race with proven form in a higher class but there has to be a slight worry about the going. That worry also holds for Standing Ovation the strongest probable, however it shouldn't be a worry for Poungach the 2nd best over all and third strongest probable. He, Poungach has the problem of competing with a race fit Pantxoa. Pantxoa small win loaded place
3:00 Jabhaat and Making Eyes are two improving horses with proven form in higher class. Class wise Making Eyes id the strongest but her best form was achieved on firm going than today's and Jabhaat was on soft like todays. Both haven't had hard season and it does look as if both have been waiting for the easier going. With only three places and 17 runners I taking a chance and splitting the stake between them to win.
3:35 For weeks my ante post bet on this has been Communicator. Second last year, his best ever performance. Needs soft and this looked to be the target all season. Provisionally working the race I was fairly sure he would be the class horse. Gosden has blown that out of the water with Aiken. Much as I would like to ignore Aiken I can't as class wise he is head and shoulders above these. The question is did those last two hard races last season bottom him? Does he really stay further than12f or was it sheer class and guts that got him so close? If and it maybe a big if, if he hasn't been soured by the experiences he could win this. The going shouldn't be a problem and although his very best form is on stiff tracks he has very good form on speed track and that may reduce the pain for him. So again I will have two in this race.
Be Lucky
Don 1:50 1 Tariq Too 2 Levitate 3 Showboating
Sand 2:30 1 Ackertac 2 Grandads Horse 3 Hector's Choice
Winc 2:40 1 Pantxoa 2 Poungach 3 Standing Ovation
Don 3:00 1 Jabhaat 2 Making Eyes 3 Princess Loulou
Don 3:35 1 Aiken 2 Lahaag 3 Hi There
Started off thinking Saturday would be a quite day wrong!! All three races at Donny look interesting, and the 2:40 at Wincanton
1:50 As much as I like Tariq Too I'm leaving him alone. Course distance etc all look fine for me the major doubt has to be the jockey, in a big field like this on a horse that cam play up at the start. There are safer bets to be had today/
2:40 Pantxoa the right handed flat(er) track should suit better than Cheltenham last time out. One of only two in this race with proven form in a higher class but there has to be a slight worry about the going. That worry also holds for Standing Ovation the strongest probable, however it shouldn't be a worry for Poungach the 2nd best over all and third strongest probable. He, Poungach has the problem of competing with a race fit Pantxoa. Pantxoa small win loaded place
3:00 Jabhaat and Making Eyes are two improving horses with proven form in higher class. Class wise Making Eyes id the strongest but her best form was achieved on firm going than today's and Jabhaat was on soft like todays. Both haven't had hard season and it does look as if both have been waiting for the easier going. With only three places and 17 runners I taking a chance and splitting the stake between them to win.
3:35 For weeks my ante post bet on this has been Communicator. Second last year, his best ever performance. Needs soft and this looked to be the target all season. Provisionally working the race I was fairly sure he would be the class horse. Gosden has blown that out of the water with Aiken. Much as I would like to ignore Aiken I can't as class wise he is head and shoulders above these. The question is did those last two hard races last season bottom him? Does he really stay further than12f or was it sheer class and guts that got him so close? If and it maybe a big if, if he hasn't been soured by the experiences he could win this. The going shouldn't be a problem and although his very best form is on stiff tracks he has very good form on speed track and that may reduce the pain for him. So again I will have two in this race.
Be Lucky
Chesham
Sire
Hi Mtoto
I think your 3rd Rated Princess Loulou is looking promising for the 3.05. Has been aimed at this race, was not raced as 2 Y-O Cost 310,000 and finally made her racecourse appearance at Todays Course and has been gradually been brought along for todays race.
The Trainers has good stats for Fillies Only Races at this time of year
Good Luck
Chesham
I think your 3rd Rated Princess Loulou is looking promising for the 3.05. Has been aimed at this race, was not raced as 2 Y-O Cost 310,000 and finally made her racecourse appearance at Todays Course and has been gradually been brought along for todays race.
The Trainers has good stats for Fillies Only Races at this time of year
Good Luck
Chesham
mtoto
Gelding
In the 3.35 do you not think that Aiken has been put in to keep the weight down for the Gosden trained Lahaag
Chesham,
To be honest the thought never entered my head, but as I don't look at weight, or think it has any importance in a race I wouldn't would I? Off hand I can only think of one time I thought something like that was going on was when an owner had two in the race and the top weight won anyway. I have read how some do think it happens, but like pacemakers one can never be sure if the horse has read the script. Although Lahaag was well up in the ratings he was never seriously considered a danger in the race for me. Class wise he had too much to find with Communicator as did the other two probables namely
Hi There and Border Legend. The class difference between Aiken and Communicator was too big for me to ignore though. Trouble is I still can't really work out if Aiken has gone, or he will return to his best form when running over 12f on a stiff course.
In handicaps the top OR gets a slight increase in my rating figures because it is the best horse according to the official handicapper, but that has nothing to do with the weight carried. It's more to do with being top rated using a different method of rating for ability.
Think your posting re gelding is very interesting. It is something I do try to look for after Mark Johnston explained a horses improvement being down to the "snip"
Be Lucky
Chesham,
To be honest the thought never entered my head, but as I don't look at weight, or think it has any importance in a race I wouldn't would I? Off hand I can only think of one time I thought something like that was going on was when an owner had two in the race and the top weight won anyway. I have read how some do think it happens, but like pacemakers one can never be sure if the horse has read the script. Although Lahaag was well up in the ratings he was never seriously considered a danger in the race for me. Class wise he had too much to find with Communicator as did the other two probables namely
Hi There and Border Legend. The class difference between Aiken and Communicator was too big for me to ignore though. Trouble is I still can't really work out if Aiken has gone, or he will return to his best form when running over 12f on a stiff course.
In handicaps the top OR gets a slight increase in my rating figures because it is the best horse according to the official handicapper, but that has nothing to do with the weight carried. It's more to do with being top rated using a different method of rating for ability.
Think your posting re gelding is very interesting. It is something I do try to look for after Mark Johnston explained a horses improvement being down to the "snip"
Be Lucky
Chesham
Sire
Hi Mtoto
Compressing The handicap was something that Jib and myself were interested in on the Peach Forum, one example was
THE NAWAB (IRE) 8-2
HARLEStone Grey 10-00
YORK Saturday, 8 October 2005 Race 1: GOOD Next 4 races: GOOD to SOFT Remainder: SOFT
3.10 Shepherd Building Group Stakes (Handicap) (3) (Turf) 2½m
£8,632 0-95 (3yo+)
Both were trained by John Dunlop and The Nawab was progressive 3 Y-O coming into the race and also getting the weight for age allowance over the long distance.
VDW posed a question about a Trainer leaving a higher weighted horse in to benefit one his other runners, more of an after thought in answering a question, rather than an absolute requirement for his method
If Ardnehue reads this he may be able to quote better stats regarding Compressing the Handicap as some Trainers have a good A/E when running two horses in the same race, especially when the one least fancied of the two causes an upset
With regards to Mark Johnston and First Time Gelding Runer, he does not do very well with these on the Turf but has a better performance on the AW Surface, except at Kempton, but then he has said that Kempton does not seem to suit the way he trains his runners, which is to lead or at least press the pace.
With Joe Fanning Riding a First Time Gelding for Mark Johnston
Good Luck
Chesham
Compressing The handicap was something that Jib and myself were interested in on the Peach Forum, one example was
THE NAWAB (IRE) 8-2
HARLEStone Grey 10-00
YORK Saturday, 8 October 2005 Race 1: GOOD Next 4 races: GOOD to SOFT Remainder: SOFT
3.10 Shepherd Building Group Stakes (Handicap) (3) (Turf) 2½m
£8,632 0-95 (3yo+)
Both were trained by John Dunlop and The Nawab was progressive 3 Y-O coming into the race and also getting the weight for age allowance over the long distance.
VDW posed a question about a Trainer leaving a higher weighted horse in to benefit one his other runners, more of an after thought in answering a question, rather than an absolute requirement for his method
If Ardnehue reads this he may be able to quote better stats regarding Compressing the Handicap as some Trainers have a good A/E when running two horses in the same race, especially when the one least fancied of the two causes an upset
With regards to Mark Johnston and First Time Gelding Runer, he does not do very well with these on the Turf but has a better performance on the AW Surface, except at Kempton, but then he has said that Kempton does not seem to suit the way he trains his runners, which is to lead or at least press the pace.
With Joe Fanning Riding a First Time Gelding for Mark Johnston
Good Luck
Chesham
mtoto
Gelding
Bang 1:50 1 Our Mick 2 Quartz De Thaix 3 Mountainous
Bang 2:50 1 Stopped Out 2 Native Gallery 3 Bourne
1:50 the top two both have proven form in higher class and first reaction is what are they being prepped for, as this certainly isn't the main target for either. Although both recorded their best performance at Cheltenham that can't realistically be the up coming meeting although Our Mick does have an entry. His target in the near future could well be the Hennessy at the end of the month.
Our Mick lightly raced last season was perhaps a little unlucky in at least one of those races. This does read like a prep as can't see the course will suit and does he really want a penalty if the Hennessy is a serious target?
Quartz De Thaix Personally I would have thought this horse would be aimed higher than this and this again is a prep, but he does have course form. As his form tailed of at the end of last season a drop in class to regain confidence could be the aim. However it didn't seem to work last season when he was dropped into a lower class hurdle. I would want to see a return to form before I considered backing him.
Mountainous is the strongest probable and IF the top two can't/don't run to form he (Mountainous) isn't out classed. He is improving, runs well fresh, and the course should suit and I think has an underrated trainer. Small win loaded place.
2:50 Nothing here for me. I made a mental note to my self ignore any race Bourne runs in. He is a horse that doesn't seem to run to his profile and NO ONE ever knows which Bourne is going to turn up and I think that includes his trainer. Even without that to worry about I can't see any value here.
If I'm a bit quite it's because the/this infernal machine is playing up a bit, like me it needs a few new bits
Be Lucky
Bang 2:50 1 Stopped Out 2 Native Gallery 3 Bourne
1:50 the top two both have proven form in higher class and first reaction is what are they being prepped for, as this certainly isn't the main target for either. Although both recorded their best performance at Cheltenham that can't realistically be the up coming meeting although Our Mick does have an entry. His target in the near future could well be the Hennessy at the end of the month.
Our Mick lightly raced last season was perhaps a little unlucky in at least one of those races. This does read like a prep as can't see the course will suit and does he really want a penalty if the Hennessy is a serious target?
Quartz De Thaix Personally I would have thought this horse would be aimed higher than this and this again is a prep, but he does have course form. As his form tailed of at the end of last season a drop in class to regain confidence could be the aim. However it didn't seem to work last season when he was dropped into a lower class hurdle. I would want to see a return to form before I considered backing him.
Mountainous is the strongest probable and IF the top two can't/don't run to form he (Mountainous) isn't out classed. He is improving, runs well fresh, and the course should suit and I think has an underrated trainer. Small win loaded place.
2:50 Nothing here for me. I made a mental note to my self ignore any race Bourne runs in. He is a horse that doesn't seem to run to his profile and NO ONE ever knows which Bourne is going to turn up and I think that includes his trainer. Even without that to worry about I can't see any value here.
If I'm a bit quite it's because the/this infernal machine is playing up a bit, like me it needs a few new bits
Be Lucky
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