• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Status
Not open for further replies.
Before I do anything else I must thank Leftinthestalls for sorting out my problem THANK YOU :hi:

While I'm at it I would also like to say this is the best forum I have joined or seen. I can't believe how open and helpful most are on here so again thank you all. :drinks:

Aint 1:55 Mwaleshi 2 Karinga Dancer 3 Cool Baranca
Don 2:40 1 Ennistown 2 Voodoo Prince 3 Thomas Hobson
Newb 2:55 1 Nichols Canyon 2 Masterstroke 3 Prince Bishop
Aint 3:05 1 Oiseau De Nuit 2 Walkon 3 Wishfull Thinking
Newb 3:30 1 Sam Sharp 2 King's Warrior 3 Hi There
Chep 4:10 1 Lamb Or Cod 2 Virak 3 Araldur.

Plenty of races to work on today BUT the bookies seem to agree with most of my workings not leaving much if any room for a decent bet.

1:55 the only horse with form is well out of it on the ratings, Cool Baranca the third strongest probable just about has the edge as she is race fit but not really a good/strong proposition.
2:20 Quite surprised Voodoo Prince runs in this as I thought the November Hcp was the target for the year. He looks right but there has to be a worry this is his prep but as he runs well fresh does he really need a prep? His biggest danger looks to be the other horse with proven form in a higher class Ennistown. While Ennistown is improving his best form has been on stiffer courses on possibly better going. Voodoo Prince small win loaded place
2:55 Can't see any value here
3:05 All three have proven form in a higher class, all three have shown their best at Cheltenham, again all three have excellent form on this course, All too tight leaving it alone
3:30 Sam Sharp the type of course and going doesn't seem to make any difference to him. He is the strongest horse with proven higher class form but like the two fails on consistency. On the bare figures King's Warrior could be a danger but can he be trusted now, I couldn't. Sam Sharp small win loaded place.
4:40 Another tough race with little value on offer, I do like Lamb Or Cod but seriously thinking about giving him a miss

Be Lucky
 
Aintree 2:05 1 Lovcen 2 Ely Brown 3 Burton Port
Aintree 3:15 1 Party Rock 2 Uncle Jimmy 3 Moon Dice


2:05 Another qualifying race and more than a little tricky with no real value on offer. The top two both have form in higher class on this course and one other has proven form also on this course. Burton Port is the strongest probable but this has to be a prep race surely and the other two probables look well out of it. No bet race
3:15 Party Rock ticks most if not all the box's top rated in all the important aspects strongest probable, best consistent horse, strongest best over all, and joint top class horse in race. Can act on the course, going and distance look fine.
The improving Uncle Jimmy looks the most likely danger and the recent race may give him an added edge, but on the figures he does need something. The course looks ok but the distance maybe a little short. Moon Dance is a major quandary and it looks as if he isn't going to fulfill his potential as they look to giving Cheltenham a miss and not go for the Greatwood. The one worry/doubt about Party Rock is is this a prep run as he needed a couple of runs before he started winning last season, now that could have been down to the change of stable and/or getting to know the horse. I also thought they would be aiming a little higher than this with him. Because of these doubts I'm having a small win loaded place instead of the straight e/w.

Be Lucky
 
That doesn't mean I accept every one of his ideas as gospel but try to stick to the main theme of the thinking.

I'm pleased to see a few people are reading this and have questions, but I'm a little surprised even after asking folk are still e-mailing me rather than ask the questions on here.

I have had an e-mail asking which of the VDW ideas I don't agree with. The most obvious one is the use of the ability rating as explained in SIAO, and I have given my reasons why I don't like/understand it. However as I'm still being asked I will try to explain again. The main reason is VDW said
"Therefore, when looking at the relative merits of one horse against another, these two elements class and form must be equated" I just can't see how the class and form can be equated when the class is being measured by an AVERAGE of the value of races won with no way of knowing which actual race the form is being based on. The other thing is taking the penalty value of a race is as bad as saying use the grade of the races. Are we really saying all class 2 105 hcps are the same and are all races worth £20,000 to the winner the same.
Another element I have often mentioned is weight, I honestly don't believe VDW paid that much attention to it. Fair enough he used s/f that had a weight factor built in, but used the figures without adjusting for weight. I'm not sure but I don't think at that time there were any s/f formulated that didn't use the standard time method and all the standard times were based on a mythical horse carrying 9st. So I don't except the use of s/f as a reason for thinking weight was important. The whole of VDW's thinking is based on class so when he said if the horse isn't proven with the weight I think he mistakenly thought the reader would understand that class also came/comes into that equation. He as we all know a horse carrying 10st in a low grade/class race can't be expected to perform carrying the same weight in a higher class race. Have to say I do have a real problem trying to understand his thinking on the framed handicap can anyone explain their theory on what he meant? The kicker for me is IF weight is/was important why isn't it mentioned when he explains what to look for when assessing form. So with weight I don't think it was actually one of VDW ideas but something (like quite a few others) that has been added to the VDW thinking by others.

Another idea that comes across quite strongly is this ask the driver, and I have quite serious doubts about the drivers at times. With remarks like coming to the boil etc I think a false impression is often given. Sure the trainer may have an idea of what he is trying to do with HIS horse, but how often does he know the plans/thinking of the other trainers? It has crossed my mind VDW had a serious fault if he genuinely though there was such a thing as a racing certainty!!

As I said before I think VDW was on the right track but he made mistakes, like us all. However I really do think if the basic facts are thought about and understood he can teach us plenty. I read his idea(s) on form study and agree with them, the form is based on the HORSE and what it does/did nothing else matters, what the general public, and/or the bookmakers think has nothing to do with it.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

VDW mentioned Positive and Negative as a intro into the Pegwell Bay Race, if PK was a Positive Giving weight to Drumgora and a Negative for Drumgora in the Erin as he is on very much worse terms weight wise.

Canny Danny giving weight was a Negative, opposite of Wing And A Prayer who was a Positive presumably for Weight For Age Allowance (7 lbs) and being a non Handicap.

I seem to recall that The weights were raised 18 lbs in Canny Danny's Race

In relation to Canny Danny perhaps it is the Probabilty that Canny Danny, even though the Class/Form horse going into that race will not be able to carry that weight to Victory and therefor is a negative as he is not thought to be capable in this race because of the Weight. If the weights were raised then horses like West Tip would have been advantaged. For VDW to bet perhaps he must have only Positives.

Same with Course Suitability VDW said that he Would not have backed Wayward Lad had it been Cheltenham as that would have been a negative, where as Kempton Track was a Positive. Similar with Desert Orchid in The Boxing Day Race that his main challenger was not suited to the Track so that was a negative

So rather than trying find a weight example in every race perhaps, weight as in the Canny Danny situation might need to be considered in certain situations but not others when having a bet or not, even though the Horse is a Class/Form horse. VDW just said that Canny Danny should be left, he did not say that he was going to back West Tip Instead.

With Regards to Framed Handicap and Framed Weights you can have a Horse Top of the Framed weights but not Top of the Framed Handicap, most notably in 3 Y O Plus Handicaps.

As for SP the Only time that was mentioned as something desirable was in the Bin Shdaad - Vague Shot List example and then the Criteria was must have been in the Top three of the betting along with the other Criteria for listing. You have said that you think that was a Filter to reduce the Number Of Qualifiers, but why surely if the Speed Rating was a Criteria as well and two Highest Class Races of the day, the amount of qualifiers would be small anyway. The way I look at it the Horses who were expected to do well in the Betting Market, who have raced to those expectations, then the Form should be more reliable and is a Positive and if the winner and 2nd horse were 20/1 and 50/1 then perhaps the form from that race might be not so positive. I'm sure that you will find examples where the Form from a race did not have one of the first thee in the Betting Market winning the race, but to me it is just a positive about the reliability of Form.



Good Luck

Chesham
 
With Regards to Framed Handicap and Framed Weights you can have a Horse Top of the Framed weights but not Top of the Framed Handicap, most notably in 3 Y O Plus Handicaps.

Chesham,

Actually it is the term framed handicap I don't really understand. Is it the ranking of the initial entries of the race, what's left in the race after the five day declarations, or something else?

I'm sure that you will find examples where the Form from a race did not have one of the first thee in the Betting Market winning the race, but to me it is just a positive about the reliability of Form.

You are quite correct I could point you to many such races, but that isn't what this is about. Like the weight aspect of racing, so many believe the market past and present adds something to the worth of the form. To be honest as it is you saying you believe it I spent a little time going through my results checking to see if horses carrying more or less weight improved their chances of winning. Taking the weight they carried when setting the marker used, I couldn't find any changes one way or the other. Have to say the same result occurred when looking at the prices of the close up horses in the races used for the marker. One thing that did show was the winning prices where good, perhaps related to going against the perceived wisdom.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

The Framed Handicap is Just the BHA Ratings, and how the weights are distributed including Minimum weight Plus any differences for Weight For age. So in a 3 Y=O Plus you could have a 3 Y-O with a higher BHA Rating than a 4 Y-O but caring less Weight

Today last Race Kemptonexplains How the Framed Handicap has the weight distributed

£4,000 guaranteed For 3yo+ Rated 56-70 (also open to such horses rated 55 and below) Weights highest weight: 4yo+ 9st 7lb; 3yo 9st 4lb Minimum weight 8-7, 3-y-o 8-4 Penalties after October 19th, each race won 6lb Weight for age 3 from 4yo+ 3lb Collodi's Handicap Mark 76 Entries 26 pay £ 20 Penalty value 1st £2,587.60 2nd £770.00 3rd £384.80 4th £192.40

So The first thing to notice is that the maximum weight for a 4 Y-O is more than the Maximum Weight for a 3-Y O

The Top weight is carrying more than specified because of winning a race after the 19th Oct

Early closing Handicaps can change if some of the Top Weights are withdrawn and horses who were due to carry less, find the wights are raise and in Canny Danny's case was not originally set to carry top weight but ended up in that position when horses who had a higher BHA Rating were declared as not running

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Last edited:
Hi Mtoto


Regarding LTO SP having no influence


Group 1 races UK ten year Stats


SP/Runners Ratio Rank = => 6
Screen Shot 2013-10-30 at 20.00.49.png

Now Run the same but With LTO SP/Runners Rank = 1


Screen Shot 2013-10-30 at 20.01.13.png

No Form Study, no LTO Class taken into account just SP/Runners Rank


Now Group 2


LTO Sp/Runners Rank = 1
Screen Shot 2013-10-30 at 20.02.49.png

Same Group 2 Races and SP/Runners Rank => 6

Screen Shot 2013-10-30 at 20.07.14.png

Clearly using the highest class Bands to demonstrate, the LTO SP of the individual horse is having an influence on the next time out race.


I am not saying that you have to always be SP/Runner Rank one, before backing a horse, but if you have other factors going for the horse, then it is just a positive and not an absolute requirement.


Good Luck


Chesham
 
Weth 2:10 1 Easter Meteor 2 Frontier Spirit 3 Mon Parrain.

This could well prep races for something bigger for Easter Meteor and Mon Parrain, EM is entered in the Paddy Power and MP in the Hennessy.

The top three along with two other have form in higher class races and none of the top three are the strongest of these five.
Easter Meteor who has shown he can run well when fresh made a mess of his last race and I think that was probably the real prep for the PP. Although his best form is on stiff course he does have winning form on this type of course. Stable in much better form than last season.
Frontier Spirit improved in his last run but will have to improve again as he is older than the dangers and that could well be a problem. Will be hard pushed to reverse form with Noble Legend the 2nd strongest probable
Mon Parrain. Is a complete enigma, and I couldn't entertain him until he shows something like is old form, Actually looking at him again I will now knock him of the d/base until he does return to form and that changes the race.

Race now reads Weth 2:10 1 Easter Meteor 2 Frontier Spirit 3 Triptico

Triptico also has form in this class, is improving and this isn't a prep race for something soon. Course and going etc look fine, this does look a suitable race. Hope I'm not making a mistake by changing my mind/bet as I was going to back Easter Meteor, and now I'm backing Triptico small in loaded place. The logic being they wouldn't want EM to have a hard race this close to Cheltenham whereas that problem wouldn't arise with Triptico. :think:

Chesham,

Interesting to see Lee's take on Illies Doncaster race here is mine. I did find your thought on the races shown by Lee interesting as well, and although I want to check something out I do feel we all tend to look for the thing we think are important ie for you weight and s/p and something completely different caught my eye with those race, However I do need a little more time to sort it out as at the moment I having a busy time. :idk:

[-]
Sep 15 07 3:47 PM



Don 5:30

Metropolitan Man 1
Eddie Jock 2
The Illies 3
Rio Riva 4

Metro Man, improving and dropping in class. Not sure if the straight 8f will suit, but has some good form on speed tracks. Think he is a possible place bet as I can see some doubts about the 2nd and 4th rated.
Eddie Jock Even with his Ascot win didn't make the d/base so is here because of his Newmarket form. The class lifting him into 2nd place in this. Major doubts about the course as best form on stiff tracks.
The Illies, ticks all the boxes and is the only runner I would really call consistent. Has shown he can handle both types of course speed/power, straight or bend. The only reason I can see for running him is to make sure he doesn't miss the cut for the Cambridgeshire. As he is my ante post bet for that race I can't see him being beaten here.
Rio Riva while the straight course will suit the same can't be said for the going. Can't see it winning.

C/f = The Illies, but the price stops me putting money down. The place price on MM looks fair, and that is where I'm going.


Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

Mon Parrain had a wind op before his LTO Race, which explains the Absence and was going to be aimed at the John Smith's Topham Chase, where he had finished 2nd the year before, so probably still had problems that needed sorting and was put away for the season. Obviously needs watching today to see if he has overcome what ever has been troubling him, but the fact that they have kept him in training gives hope for a better season

Looking forward to watching this race as I have your selection Top Rated below MP and Rob's Form Plus has T Top rated

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Chesham said:
Looking forward to watching this race as I have your selection Top Rated below MP and Rob's Form Plus has T Top rated

Good Luck

Chesham
Click to expand...

Agree a very interesting pick which was aval at 22/1 last night and now half that price.I am not betting in the race but will be well pleased to shout it home for you mtoto.
 
Weth 1:40 1 Cockney Sparrow 2 L'Unique 3 Mischievous Milly
Ascot 2:10 1 Drumshambo 2 Fairy Rath 3 Notarfbad
Ascot 2:45 1 Get Me Out Of Here 2 Court Minstrel 3 Gibb River
Ascot 3:20 1 Triolo D'Alene 2 Opening Batsman 3 Big Fella Thanks

1:40 Can't see any value here as everyone can see and agrees with the horses chances.
2:10 Drumshambo The only horse with proven form in a higher class. Can win when fresh, but had plenty of runs and form tailed of a little last season.The right handed course, going and distance look fine but the stiff course was to be a worry. The strongest probable Fairy Rath has winning form on this course, but the going could be a problem and has to improve class wise. Notarfbad looks outclassed and his ranking is based purely on stats. On balance Drumshambo looks the best way to show a profit so a small win loaded place.
2:45 Leaving this alone problems/doubts with all three.
3:20 Triolo D'Alene has won on this course but it was in a much lower class and his best form has been on speed (flat) course. This could be a prep for the Hennessy although he also has entry in the Paddy Power. I would query the course for him and for the 2nd rated Opening Batsman also with a Hennessy entry. If pushed I would go with the class horse in the race Roberto Goldback.

Be Lucky
 
Mtoto,

Sorry I didn’t get back to you sooner, but I’ve had more pressing issues just recently!

I’m hoping that my reply puts in to context the Ability Rating as well as giving you my conclusions regarding VDW’s method of class and form.

Lee,

The only class form methods I have ever seen explained are the c/form horse is the horse with the highest a/rating that is in form. A slight variation is the horse with the best form, that is also in form. Are you saying neither of the above is correct?

ALL examples were class/form horses – not 2nd, 3rd or whatever, and therefore the horses that were rated higher on ability were not form horses in the eyes of VDW.

Most of the juggling happens to get rid of the horses with a higher a/rating than the VDW selection. These horses are classified as out of form or even more strangely not a form horse for this race. If the a/rating works how can this be?

This may appear to be the case, however, in practise it is fairly straightforward to achieve. The ability rating was given as an introduction to class and how best to rate it (don’t be fooled by that statement). In isolation NO method of gauging class is any good.

I think you have stated the a/rating can't be used to gauge the class of a horse. If I have misunderstood you I apologise, if not, what is the point of it?

Answered above.

So can I ask do you think the selections VDW put up are the c/form horses in those races? If not why is he backing against them when he thinks the c/form horse is the most likely to win?

Answered above.

Do you think Petronisi was out of form (or a none form horse) or his form just not good enough. If you have him as out of form why isn't Baronet? Investor says P is out of form because he didn't win a lower class race last time out.

Not correct – that was just coincidence.

Baronet also went into the same race with a higher class win last time out. P beats B, P is out of form, Baronet is a form horse, and the selection to boot??

Similar to the Braashee/Cossack Guard weight turn around, if you can answer the question – you’ve cracked it!

Love of Verona and Son of Love are the 2 that I have never seen explained to any satisfaction. Is Dyscole eliminated purely on the fact that his last race was a chase?

No.

Son Of Love, I fail to see how he is a form horse (the way others have explained it) If the a/rating has anything at all to do with the c/form horse (or in this case the race and/or the horse at all) how can a rating of 50 compare to ratings of 266, 133, 112, etc.?

On one hand you argue the worth of the a/rating then appear to ignore if you can make the examples work without any juggling.

Actually reading back through my notes you don't ever seem to have commented on the a/rating one way or another. Except to say it is of use. So the long and short of it is do you think the a/rating is being used in the wrong way? Is Investor correct to use it as a collateral marker?

The ability rating cannot be used as a collateral rating – I.e. horse A beat a higher rated horse than horse B last time out, so horse A must now rate higher? This is nonsense, just like all other collateral form ratings - This will of course be apparent to anyone that has taken the time to look at his examples; those who haven’t however, wouldn’t have been privy to such knowledge.

As stated above the AR was an introduction to class but VDW gave enough away for the reader to realise that it was no more use, per se, than the consistency rating.

Those who condemn these 2 ratings are no Sherlock Holmes’, even a fool should realise their limitations if used as ratings in isolation; those who rubbish VDW on the strength of such basic elements have no chance.

Given a race and the selection, it is very easy to come up with some very impressive looking reasons why that horse is the selection. In truth they maybe a mile away from the real reason(s) that horse was chosen, but the reasons can be made to fit and look good. Yesterday I didn't look at Top Speed and never take weight into account and don't judge a race by prize money on offer. Investor came up with some good reasons to make the selection fit, none of which were used by me. Has he really found the answer to the way I work?

Not as far as I can tell.

The above is is the reply of some questions asked by me to Lee on another forum. Some of you may have seen it before but for me it answers some of the questions but leaves some major doubts about his (Lee's) understanding of the VDW methods/thinking. This doesn't alter the fact that Lee has a grip on understanding racing in general.

For me I can't agree with the reasoning that any horse with a higher ability rating that is passed over is a none form horse, for me that should read, fails on capability, or is unlikely to reproduce its form under these circumstances. I think there is a subtle difference here. Also this VDW didn't have 2nd class form horses contradicts his quote in Whiel Of Fortune when he said "The race was in fact one to leave alone, because there were other factors which did not go in favour pf the "class/form" Buckbe. In the event, Buckbe fell and the second on "class/form" Catch Phrase took the honours."

Lee goes on to say in isolation no method of gauging class is any good, that should read THIS (the method being used) isn't any/much use for the reason VDW explained . He clearly said form and class have to be joined to get a proper guide/gauge to ability and he said class and ability are the same thing!

The answer about Braashee is how Lee and others see it but I don't think weight had anything to do with either selection. Baronet was the selection because it was the class form horse ( highest rated of the consistent horses) Braashee was the selection because he was the only/best horse going into the race showing the required improvement. If anyone has the actual s'f of those two horses I would like to see them as I can't find my copy.

Reading through some of Lee's posting and private messages there is no doubt Lee thought the market was important, but I can find no conclusive evidence VDW thought the same. I have noticed that many of Lee's selections, here I do say many, not all, marry up with mine or horse that come out well with my thinking in races I didn't work at the time. That is why I asked the last question in that posting about folk using different methods but coming up with the same result without understanding the thought processes being used.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

If VDW did not think the Market important, why did he mention it as a proviso for the Vague Shot & Bin Shadaad Listing Method? I don't think that it was to cut down on the list getting to big as their were other provisos in place, to keep the list from being too large, the Speed Figure proviso and two Highest Class races.

Another example where he mentions the market as though it justified that nothing was expected with Ahoy "Little Interest in the Market"

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Hi Mtoto

Braashee had a Split Second rating LTO = 47, so I presume would not have qualified for your data base?

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Hi Mtoto

Re Lee's Answer to You

Similar to the Braashee/Cossack Guard weight turn around, if you can answer the question – you’ve cracked it!

I think that Lee used the SP Odds as he states and is coveyed when in another post he mentions

Note also that both Top Dirham and Vicious Warrior met in their penultimate runs, and although TD ran flat, there were excuses; note here their respective market positions.

Top Dirham was 13/2fav

Vicious Warrior 14/1


Braashee 7/1 fav Cossack Guard 11/1


Lee
VDW had a fixation for consistency and the betting market for a very good reason. The latter is extrememly efficient. Part of his method relies on the betting forecast; however, he also deems it necessary to quote the SP of nearly all his examples in his writings – so, as he said go back to the beginning and you’ll find it all tied up with temperament and the odds.


With regards Ability Ratings and the way Lee used them

‘against not much’. This is ‘key’. When one is able to identify exactly how VDW quantified the opposition then you’ll be almost there!

Most of this stuff is saved to word docs, but I think this was Lee (Unless someone knows different)

VDW set out the races involved by listing the finishing order in full with previous class, distance and position, but he analysed each race as if he was looking at it beforehand. In practice he would have been and that is a key point so many are completely missing I feel.

In the 2nd race he noted that "the three with a run and the highest race class, Shimshek,Ala Hounak and Merce Cunningham were an odd bunch. Neither Shimshek nor Ala Hounak have much in the way of class (AS HORSES) and both have shown they would be better over longer distance. Merce Cunningham does have some class."

Let's look at the ability ratings in this race down the card.

Iben Bey 316
Ala Hounak 46
Roushayd 231
Chauve Souris 34
Golden Isle 29
Merce Cunningham 56
Milton Burn 28
Our Eliaso 17
Shimshek 19


The above would fit in with VDW mention about being able to turn back to your records to help balance the Form. With regards to Lee's mention that Ability ratings could not be used a Collateral rating, I interpret that as Merce Cunningham winning the above race does not mean that his own ability is now better than say Roushayd. The above just shows you who turned up for the race and in VDW's example outline of the race, the LTO Race Class that they came from and noted the SP of the Winner.

Now that AR is publishing the Ability Ratings everyone will have a record of who turned up in any race, as the amount of files start to build, so it will be possible to see if this holds any water when looking back at the last three race profile.

Mr Swan may care to give thought not to a race as a whole but to he respective horse's performances over the last furlongs in each of their three previous outings

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top