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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

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Paralysis by analyses

I read somewhere on here someone said keep it simple and that struck home for me. Until one has a VERY firm idea of what one thinks is important when
analysing a race it can get very complicated. Often there is far to much information to take in and far too many expert/pundits clouding the issue. I see folk jumping around like butterflies trying this trying that, and they don't appear to have sat down and thought about it seriously.

Looking at this site I think there are a couple of people that could well mentor them ONCE they have decided what path they want to take. I suppose in a way I was lucky as in my youth I had horses like Arkle, Flying Bolt, Persian War, etc. running. I worked with an old guy that loved his racing and his maxim was they can't handicap class and that stuck with me. Class is the king pin and then I read something written by a man that said something very similar so I started to try to understand what he was saying/showing. That doesn't mean I accept every one of his ideas as gospel but try to stick to the main theme of the thinking.

Chesham,

Have to say none of this is aimed at you as you do seem to have a very clear idea of what you are doing. However it must appear to be a little complicated to the not so experienced as you come at the problem from so many different angles. So can I ask you what do you think is the most important aspect in finding winners, the one thing you would keep if everything else was taken away? I'm fairly sure you can answer that question without to much thought, and when others can do it the whole exercise will become a little easier for them.

Thanks for the link I will read it later. Have to say I like(d) Nick Mordin, but like James Willoughby he is/has gone down the path of trying to show how clever he is. Making folk think the only way to win is by being some sort of intellectual genius, no hope for me then :doh:

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

First of all I have to agree a about the butterfly syndrome and that it is best if you have mastered one method before trying something new. Take your own method for instance, you could tell someone everything they needed, but VDW said that Having all the ingredients for a cake does not make you a master Baker, their is a culinary expertise needed.

With regards to your method there is clearly experience coming into play, knowing when the horse is actually being aimed at winning the race. After all the horse that you have recently successfully selected will have had the same Class rating when you first entered it in in your data base and it is possible (Hypothetically) two runs ago, may have had the highest Class rating in the race, but you know form your experience, that it was not the correct race for it. That only comes from personal experience and can't be taught. VDW said he could give people the tools but they would need to develop Temperament, from Latin temperamentum ‘correct mixture, VDW Gave his own interpretation in Systematic Betting, he was spelling out what Temperament means and although it can mean resisting a bet, the meaning behind the word is why it was not a bet, there was not the correct mixture for a bet or when everything lines up the Correct Mixture for a Bet. VDW said look to yourself and develop Temperament.

I have often disagreed with you on all manner of subjects and some of those opinions will not change, but one opinion is a positive one and that is because of your Blog. I realised from reading your race Pre Race analysis and there has been enough of those examples for me make a judgement. I can see that you have developed and can demonstrate the Temperament that VDW Suggested everyone needs and that can't be taught. You have developed as VDW suggested a Manner of THINKING or behaving characteristically when approaching the selection of races to bet in and Horses that should be backed.

RE So can I ask you what do you think is the most important aspect in finding winners, the one thing you would keep if everything else was taken away?

Answer = Class is the main factor that I consider when looking at any race.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
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Hi Mtoto!

I think each of the elements V.D.W gave in his formula are important!

Class being the most important "class comes first"

I am trying to get to grips with each element and take notice of what yourself and Chesham have to say on the matter,I realise you have both been at it longer than I have.

As for flitting like a Butterfly, I think you need to experiment- as long as the factors are still used.

This is why I said I was going to give your thought of the class rating a shot, I will still use the basic ability rating alongside to see how they both perform.

Take care
Paul.
 
I think you need to experiment- as long as the factors are still used.

Paul,

I agree there is nothing wrong with experimenting, but for me at least these experiments should be done by examining the records after the race. You say class comes first but to use it you must work out how you are going to measure it. It is all very well working a race using two/three different measurements, but when you come up with the different answers that has only complicated the thinking pattern when trying to make a/the selection.

Before you start wouldn't it be better to write down the good points and flaws against the problem/measurement, think about them and then decide to use one to make your selections. There is nothing stopping you keeping a record and checking to see how the other methods played out but you are concentrating on the one thing when making your decisions. I know we all work differently but for me the whole idea is to cut the field down to a few runners that can be studied in detail and that detail is the edge. Using more than one measurement can wind up giving you too many horses to study in detail. I know it says every horse is studied but surely if the measurement used to measure ability is any good the winners are going to come from the top/best few, the rating has down the studying/job. Sorting out the details is your job and I think one needs plenty of time to think about it and get it right.

I think each of the elements V.D.W gave in his formula are important!

Agreed but some are more important than others and some only become important when they are coupled with more than one of these elements. I'm a complete dummy when it comes to the clever stuff on the computer, but even I have managed to put together a spreadsheet that keeps a record of the VDW elements being used. So I can see where and when any of these elements are playing a major role in finding the winning selections. As Chesham said I could give anyone the basic elements and how to find them, but they would/could still come up with different result. The detail is the edge, and to find that you need time, and the time is made by narrowing the field accurately in the shortest possible time, giving plenty of time to think.

Be Lucky
 
Having just read the last two posts on this thread by mtoto and chesham,i would say both are excellent.The word i would use is experience.This cannot be taught it has to be earned.
 
Newm 4:45 1 Galician 2 Yojojo 3 Cosseted

Bit of a messy race with only the one established horse with form, and that is in a higher class, Galician. Difficult to work out whether she has had enough for the season, and this is a chance your arm run. Her best form has been on stiff straight courses which she has today, best form on firmer ground than she will have today, but can act on soft.
Yojojo, strongest of the probables but not easy to weigh up. Track doesn't really look that suitable but going maybe ok.
Cosseted, second best probable who the course and going could well suit as she can handle stiff courses and any the going doesn't seem to matter.

Boils down to can Galician's proven form be repeated and beat the improving Cosseted? Personally I think this is a chance your arm race for Galician and a no bet race for me.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

I have covered the same race as you in the Class Figures Thread (Inner Sanctum)

Good Luck

Chesham
 
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Chesham,

Can I ask what are the par figures used/suggested by Dave Edwards of Top Speed.

Anybody else, can you help is there a quick way I can get rid of Wishfull Thinking182
distance-cd.gif
1011-10 Philip Hobbs75 the figures and letters after the trainers and horses names when I download them from the Post. At the moment I spend too much time knocking them of one by one.

More hospital appointments tomorrow so I will probably be a bit quite until Saturday :clap:
 
Hi Mtoto

Top Speed


Grp1 =117

Grp2= 109

Grp 3 = 102

Listed 98

2= 94

3= 85

4=79

5=65

6=62


Hope your Hospital Appointment goes well.

With regards to the Names of the Horses and getting rid of the numbers, is it just the Horses name that you want?

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Wishfull Thinking182 Philip Hobbs75
Oiseau De Nuit182 Colin Tizzard29
Edgardo Sol192 Paul Nicholls65
Walkon204 Alan King62
Conquisto168 Steve Gollings
Carrickboy192 Venetia Williams
Astracad7 Nigel Twiston-Davies55
Viva Colonia98 Brian Ellison50
Pure Faith8 Peter Bowen50
Saint Are182 Tim Vaughan40
Mr Moonshine190 Sue Smith75
Sergeant Pink15 Dianne Sayer60

I wind up with two separate columns looking like this and then have to go through them all individually knocking off the numbers. So is there an easy way for an ejut like me to save a bit of time and the boredom :idk:

Thanks
 
Hi Mtoto

Do you want the Horse and Trainer without any numbers or just the Horse

In Racing Post if you click the OR Button underneath the Betting Forecast you could copy and paste the Horses name but will still have to delete the Weight Figures.

You could PM Ardnehue, who is really helpful and is good with Excel stuff and he may be able to help you

If you go to the Ratings and Utilities, click Utilities and you should find the tool that you are looking for

Good Luck

Chesham
 
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mtoto said:
Chesham,
Anybody else, can you help is there a quick way I can get rid of Wishfull Thinking182
distance-cd.gif
1011-10 Philip Hobbs75 the figures and letters after the trainers and horses names when I download them from the Post. At the moment I spend too much time knocking them of one by one.
Click to expand...
Hi Mtoto
as long as there is a number after the horse name you could use the formula below - change A1 to whatever cell contains the first horse then copy the formula down
Code: 
=TRIM(LEFT(A1,MIN(FIND({1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,0},A1&1234567890))-1))

sample spreadsheet attached

atb
leftinthestalls
 

Attachments

  • SplitNameatFirstNumber.xlsx
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These are the Topspeed par figures I received from the Racing Post with an explanatory note from Dave Edwards.

Cracking thread by the way.


Flat turf
Group races 115+

Class 2 105+

Class 3 90+

Class 4 80+

Class 5 70+

Class 6 60+


National Hunt
Class 1 160+

Class 2 145+

Class 3 130+

Class 4 120+

Class 5 105+

Class 6 90+


All weather
Class 1 95-105

Class 2 85-95

Class 3 75-85

Class 4 65-75

Class 5 60-65

Class 6 55-60


"This is a general guide to what horses can be expected to earn in a truly run race but there are several caveats which mean they are a ‘guide’ at best and in my view of limited relevance.

The races have to be truly run and unfortunately over jumps this is a rarity except in big races and even then it is not certain. Long distance races tend to develop into half-lap sprints which surely defeats the object.

Much depends on how other races on the card unfold as they can throw a spanner in the works.

Weight for age distorts the findings and is arguably better stripped out. Horses do not improve at the same rate at the same time over particular distances and to suggest otherwise is just wrong. Any WFA scale is either hypothetical or conceivably even erroneous. On the plus side any horse that betters the ‘par’ is worth noting and may be capable of performing well when upped in grade."
 
Chesham and Boom

Thanks for the information re Top Speed, it is for information only as I have no intention of using them but need it to try to answer a couple of questions.

Long distance races tend to develop into half-lap sprints which surely defeats the object.

Boom,

Have to say the way I work I have found the longer the distance the more reliable the rating, although here I'm not just talking about the s/f element of the rating. The French figures have to be looked at very hard as they do have a tendency to run as you say, but generally I haven't found that. Chesham posted an article by Nick Mordin re weight for age it was quite interesting, but I don't use weight in any part of my thinking, the only time I notice weight is when I read comments like he can't win with that weight. ;)

On the plus side any horse that betters the ‘par’ is worth noting and may be capable of performing well when upped in grade."

Again this is something I often hear along with faster than class. It is something I have a problem with just because a horse runs faster than expected why do folk think it can do the same against better horses?

Anyway thanks for the input more the merrier :clap:

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

These were the Speed Pars Top Speed, Split Second, BHA and RP that were on the Stuart Eaton Site a few years back, The Split Second ones used to be in the Booklet that came with the Raceform Interactive Disks

Split second figures equate to 1 point per length at 8f the the number of lengths per point changes with distance

Screen Shot 2013-10-25 at 00.22.27.png

Good Luck

Chesham
 
These are the RPR guidelines as supplied by the Racing Post.

Paul Curtis, Racing Post Ratings handicapper, writing in Betting on Horses a few years back, gave the following guidelines:


0-45 Regional racing
45-60 Sellers/modest handicappers
60-70 Fair handicappers
70-80 Decent handicappers
80-95 Useful handicappers
95+ Top handicappers
105+ Listed class
110+ Group 3
115+ Group 2
120+ Group 1
130+ Top-class

A list for National Hunt horses has never been published, but our jumps handicapper Steve Mason recently commented on Paul Curtis's figures when we received a similar query to your own.

"We do not have National Hunt pars as such but if you ignore the regional racing referred to in Paul Curtis's figures and just add 50 to the rest (i.e. up the 95+ Top handicappers to 145+) you get the general idea. Anything rated in excess of 160 is Grade 1 material and anything over 170 would be top class. It is a bit more complicated within the various divisions, ie novices, juvenile hurdlers etc, but any novice who does 160+ could be described as top class, while similar would apply for any juvenile in excess of 150."
 
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