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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

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Ascot 2:55
Dalkala
Waila
The Lark
Nymphea
Belle De Crecy
Seal Of Approval
Talent
Hot Snap
Igugu

Paul,

The above is my ranking of the 2:55. As you can see Talent is well down the order. As yet she hasn't registered on the d/base, and reading through her form I would have serious doubts about the stiff course for her. I haven't finished looking/thinking about this race yet so can't say if there is going to be a bet in it but I can't see it being Talent for me if there is/was one.

Be Lucky
 
Ascot 1:45 1 Harris Tweed 2Royal Diamond 3 Caucus
Chelt 2:35 1 Vino Griego 2 Woolcombe Folly 3 Tanks For That
Ascot 2:55 1 Dalkala 2 Waila 3 Nymphea
Ascot 3:30 1 Gregorian 2 Maxios 3 Dawn Approach
Chelt 3:45 Lost Glory 2 Balthazar King 3 Life Of A Luso
Ascot 4:05 Cirrus Des Aigles 2 Farhh 3 Hillstar

Plenty of races but plenty of problems. Have the horses running on the flat had enough and are going over, are the jumpers fully wound up and ready to go?

1:45 Royal Diamond I find his last race a little confusing think I heard Murtagh say he made a mistake with the way he rode in that race, not sure what mistake, but if that race is taken out of the equation the form looks quite different. A quick look says the horse didn't run his race but if they weren't happy with his performance why the big debate and time taken to decide whether or not to run him in Australia? Harris Tweed will find it hard to make the running and he has had some hard races. Caucus is a bit of a law unto himself if the " good" Caucus turns up he could go close, but one never knows until the race is well under way. Royal Diamond tp place with a little on the win.

3:30 Gregorian a bit of a surprise being top rated here. However when the form is studied in more detail it is quite possible he is being flattered by the rating. What does stand out is his best performances have been at Ascot in top class races. I maybe looking for something that isn't really there but both of those good runs came after a short break. I'm not really expecting the win but I do think he will run better than the price suggests. Very small win loaded place,

3:45 Balthazar King was my bet but missed the price!!


BE Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

Murtagh has good stats in these type of races at Ascot

Filter: Ascot, 3yo+, Long Dist, Group123



5 wins from 10 runs (50.0%), 2.27 A/E, Profit of £11.67 (116.7%)


00/1-1-5/1-163-1


Place bet at the odds looks a good strategy by you in this race. Eye of the Storm is likely to show more than he has been able too so far and would take him over Estimate who has a poor Price Disparity of 2.1 as I write

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Well done Mtoto!

I backed both Slade Power and Viztoria, I must admit I crapped myself when S.P and Jack Dexter were battling for the win.

Slade Powers class came through!
 
I was a bit worried when Slade moved off his running path
formtheory said:
Well done Mtoto!

I backed both Slade Power and Viztoria, I must admit I crapped myself when S.P and Jack Dexter were battling for the win.

Slade Powers class came through!
Click to expand...

I would have been in the dog house after last nights reply to your post about this race, I would have been :violence-rocket:

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Hi Mtoto,

I received a book today called Class of The Field by James Quinn, his idea seems not too different to your theory.

His formula for Class is: Brilliance-Manner of performance-Level of opposition

He condenses this to: Speed-Competiveness-Level of difficulty.

He uses speed pars along with the amount of challenges for the lead during a race to create a rating to measure class.

Nick Mordin also adapted this idea.

I really like your idea of the ability rating, (or V.D.Ws!)

Jack Ramsden said " A good horse can run a bad time but a bad horse cannot run a good one"

I have been really impressed with your selections, and am going to try and factor this in to my handicapping.

When you say a horse has not even registered a performance to entitle it to be entered onto your database, what criteria are you looking for?

I am thinking about looking at the top 3 speeds a horse has ran and the competition faced? I will be using top speed, this is why I shall look at the top 3.


Can you give any advice on this?

Thanks
Paul.
 
When you say a horse has not even registered a performance to entitle it to be entered onto your database, what criteria are you looking for?

Paul,

The short answer to that is a personal best, BUT that PB has to be a worthwhile figure so I use a par figure as a guide. With top class races that figure is a must but if/when I do work on lower class races it can be dropped and just use the PB. In these lower class races I only use figures that are fairly recent as I think these horses have a shorter form cycle than the "good" horses.

I am thinking about looking at the top 3 speeds a horse has ran and the competition faced? I will be using top speed, this is why I shall look at the top 3.

Personally I log every performance that equals or betters the par only using the best figures with a caveat, to make sure I'm using the correct class. When working the actual race I do note the conditions where all theses figures, and wins, have been achieved. Nothing wrong with looking at the best three but why bother with performances if they don't come up to scratch?

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto!

I have been thinking about your ratings alot!

When looking at the Sprint yesterday at Ascot, the basic ability rating can confuse as some handicappers win big prizes but are not up to group level, with this in mind I looked at the 3 best speeds ever recorded by Topspeed to see if these would back up the basic ability rating, There
were 4 horses left, Maarek, Jack Dexter, Viztoria and Slade Power.

The horses shortlisted apart from Maarek filled the first 3 home, in your opinion can your rating be used in conjunction with the basic rating in this way?

The basic rating shows the horse actually wins races and yours shows the level of competition the horse can run it's best speed against.

The reason I was thinking about using the top 3 is if a horse ran a Topspeed figure of say 100 against highest O.R 90, but his 2nd best was 96 but highest O.R 105 would the 96 not be the better performance?

I understand you are looking for the level where a horse can run it to it's best speed, but does it's best speed mean it is the best performance?

I am finding this really interesting!

Thanks for replying!
Have a good day!

P.s hope the above makes sense!
I am not as good as you and Chesham at getting my thoughts onto paper!
 
The reason I was thinking about using the top 3 is if a horse ran a Topspeed figure of say 100 against highest O.R 90, but his 2nd best was 96 but highest O.R 105 would the 96 not be the better performanc

Paul,

The above is a very very good question and as I said I do have caveat to solve this problem. I don't use Top speed so I'm not sure how I would solve it using them, but I would use only the best performance ( once I had decided how to find it) as the main yard stick.

I understand you are looking for the level where a horse can run it to it's best speed, but does it's best speed mean it is the best performance?

It is the class that is the important element NOT the s/f

The horses shortlisted apart from Maarek filled the first 3 home, in your opinion can your rating be used in conjunction with the basic rating in this way?

Not sure I understand the question, but for me the worth of any races is based solely on whether or not it was a true run race, not the past/previous performances of the runners.

I have given up trying to work out any sprint races and only look at races over seven furlongs or more so can't/don't look at them. It may just be me, but I don't think class really effects sprints, the whole thing seems to be down to pure speed and luck in running so I gave up.

"There are good grounds for taking the view that when using time as a means of evaluation, attention should be restricted to the five and six furlong
sprints, or at least, to a maximum of one mile. These same grounds hold good for thinking the use of time during the National Hunt is not so reliable as other means because of the minimum of two miles."

The above is a VDW quote from TGY that is often used to explain why VDW DIDN'T used s/f, I think it is just the opposite it just reenforces speed is no good without form. In short he is saying there maybe good grounds for thinking it but they are wrong.

The quote that is the important one is "What the clock says at the end of a race may not appear to tell the whole story, but it gives enough when interpreted and used to best advantage to provide one of the most useful means of evaluation".

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto,

I came to thinking that V.D.W spoke of consistent form or Constant form to show a true ran race from which horses that improved within it could be noted confidently as the form shown would not be overstated by a false race.

When V.D.W said that most horses were not in a race to win but were there for training purposes only, I began to think that if you could find truly consistent form, then the improvement the horses shown within would be trust worthy.

The Roushayd example seems to show this, each horse that beat Roushayd had won LTO and stepped up in class and were Fav or 2nd Fav with the Fav close up, this shows that the race was truly ran and consistent, the horses within the races that showed Improvement could now be noted and watched where placed next.

As the winner of each of these races had won being stepped up in class there was good reason to think they were also at peak fitness.
 
I came to thinking that V.D.W spoke of consistent form or Constant form to show a true ran race from which horses that improved within it could be noted confidently as the form shown would not be overstated by a false race.

Paul,

Not sure if I'm misunderstanding you here if so, sorry. The above reads to me it is the consistency that makes the race a true run race whereas for me there is only one thing that can make it a true run race the time it takes to run the race. Consistency has nothing to do with it for me anyway.

When V.D.W said that most horses were not in a race to win but were there for training purposes only

Agreed he did say that but I'm far from convinced that is a fact. I do agree there are many races that can be narrowed down to a handful of likely winners but that is a very different matter, as it doesn't mean the others are there just for the run. For me the whole concept of the methods is to look for GOOD horses running in GOOD races and it costs good money to enter these good/better races if they need to try something different apart from the very top horses there must be cheaper ways of doing it.

Roushayd was the selection because he had achieved his best ever s/f showing improvement. Now dropped in class and improving he was the bet nothing to do with favourites beaten or otherwise. For what it's worth and I know it can never be proven one way or the other, but I think Epsom was his real target and the Old Newton Cup was the consolation prize.

Be Lucky
 
Thanks for the reply Mtoto!

I have been looking through the thread and you mentioned the class rating and the ability rating, what do believe the difference between the two is?

You mention you are looking for two types of proven class, could you elaborate on this please?I would like to give your way of working a go ( only grasp the basic idea of the ability rating though) through this years jump season, any help would be very much appreciated!

Cheers Paul.
 
I have been looking through the thread and you mentioned the class rating and the ability rating, what do believe the difference between the two is?

Paul,

To me the ability rating and the class rating are the same thing, if I have confused you sorry. If you point me to where I have done this and it doesn't make sense I will try to explain. However I do think there was a difference when VDW talked about the ability rating and his class rating. The ability rating was the quick simple method he explained to the masses, the class rating was his original method of judging ability. There is defiantly a difference because he said Prominent King didn't have a winning class rating and we know he had won at least two races.

You mention you are looking for two types of proven class, could you elaborate on this please

This is simple a horse has to record a par s/f to warrant an entry to the data base that is proven form, when a race is anaylised the class of the race is worked out. If the class of the of the master rating for the horse is greater than the class of the race the horse has proven form in a higher class. Reading this again it may look as if I think class and form are different things, to me they are the same thing when I'm talking about the horse.:oops:

Baring accidents I will be putting up my top three horses for all class 2 or higher NH races, except bumpers, hunter chases, veteran and /or amateur races. If you have any problems I will try to help. One thing I will say with the NH only take/use figures that don't flatter the horse, only use figures where the horse made a race of it and wasn't just dragged to a high figure by the winner.

Be Lucky
 
Paul

I don't know whther Patternform would be easier for you to use as regards the default speed figure. You can get over two years figures in a column and you can see at a glance where the horses best figure/s have been recorded against what opposition.
For instance on Saturday

Top figure recorded was Hoof It with 97 in July 11 in a class 2
2nd Top figure recorded was Maarek with 94 in June 12 in a Group 3.
3rd Top figure recorded was Slade Power with 93 in July 13 in a Group 1
4th top figure recorded was Viztoria with 93 in Septemeber 12 in a listed race.
5th top figure recorded was Humidor with 88 in January 12 in a handicap at Meydan.
6th top figure recorded was Sirius Prospect with 88 in July 13 in a class 2 handicap
7th top figure recorded was Jack Dexter with 87 in September 13 in a class 2 handicap.
 
Cheers Rob!
Much appreciated mate!

Thankyou for the advice Mtoto!
Will be interesting to see what we both come up with!

Have a good day, Paul.
 
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