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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

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The creator of and the world's pre-eminent expert in the field of "Risk Intelligence" -- Professor Dylan Evans (Ph.D., Philosophy) -- carried out an exhaustive research over many years into what makes an "expert gambler" different.


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The expert gambler makes money and the problem gambler loses it. But there are emotional differences. Although they both gamble a lot and it appears to be compulsive, expert gamblers know when not to bet, they evaluate their opportunity each time.
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Graphic had won at Haydock Park 14 days after running fourth in the ladies diamond race at Ascot. He didn't get the best of runs that day and was none the worse for the experience subsequently winning twice.

Rob,

I can't argue with the above but for me the above form doesn't read that strong.

The 4th was in a class 90
first win was in a class 95
2nd win was in a class 101 A/W
Last race was 4th in a class 105
As far as I know none of these races was run at a pace strong enough to warrant entry to the data base. As I don't keep a record of A/W races I don't know about the strength of that race but I wouldn't use A/W form in a turf race. This leaves as I said before the last race as possibly his best form to date and that is a major improvement on his previous best a s/f of 105 in a class 80 an apprentice hcp. After a horse has put an effort that would/could increase its figures by that much I would be looking for the horse to have at least a month to recover.

In the past I have checked to make sure my required yard stick isn't that high I miss out on too many good horses, and decided it was about right as there are horses coming out of class 85's registering.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

Timeform speed Fig had Graphic as having his best speed rating at 103 in the Kempton Race and his Timeform Rating 104. The LTO Race was Timeform Speed 96 and Timeform Rating 103+

Timeform have provisionally Rated him 112 for yesterday's race.


The Race Yesterday was under standard per furlong and the only race on the card to do that.

The Class Ratings yesterday with Levitate a non runner, had Graphic Top rated based on LTO Performance and did not use the Kempton Performance.

It is difficult to trust blindly AW Form to Turf, sometimes it works out, but you do get horses who only perform best on an AW surface. Haggas does well with Surface Switchers Aw to Turf and often there is an improvement when they do, although the Time Figure was down for Graphics switch and the Timeform Rating was a just down with a Plus.By it.

This time of year always makes me over cautious as there are horses who probably need a rest and the trainer goes for one more hit and often one race too much. others suddenly spring back to life when there is give in the turf and have been aimed at an Autumn campaigne.

excellent blog by the way and will be useful to look back on the discussions and subject matter as the months roll on, especially the NH season as I will take an interest in that after many years of avoiding it. last year my son treated me to Gold Cup Day at Cheltenham which was an education in itself just trying to manoeuvre out of the champaign Bar to get down to put a bet on the first race, after that experience I gave the Bar a miss. I would not care but I was on soft drinks anyway as my tummy had been playing up a few days before. I did have one stroke of luck in the Foxhunters when the lady jockey in front of my horse and heading easily for the winning line, suddenly swerved to go round again and in an effort to correct the horse the Lady Jockey unseated herself, leaving my horse to win. In the past when I did follow NH it would have been my horse that the horse unshipped LOL

Good Luck

Chesham
 
mtoto said:
Graphic had won at Haydock Park 14 days after running fourth in the ladies diamond race at Ascot. He didn't get the best of runs that day and was none the worse for the experience subsequently winning twice.

Rob,

I can't argue with the above but for me the above form doesn't read that strong.

The 4th was in a class 90
first win was in a class 95
2nd win was in a class 101 A/W
Last race was 4th in a class 105
As far as I know none of these races was run at a pace strong enough to warrant entry to the data base. As I don't keep a record of A/W races I don't know about the strength of that race but I wouldn't use A/W form in a turf race. This leaves as I said before the last race as possibly his best form to date and that is a major improvement on his previous best a s/f of 105 in a class 80 an apprentice hcp. After a horse has put an effort that would/could increase its figures by that much I would be looking for the horse to have at least a month to recover.

In the past I have checked to make sure my required yard stick isn't that high I miss out on too many good horses, and decided it was about right as there are horses coming out of class 85's registering.

Be Lucky
Click to expand...


Hi Mtoto
Very good points and difficult to argue against facts. Horseracing is like darts, do you play the board or your opponent, neither is wrong but you may well come up with a different answer.

You are right in that you doubted Graphic had the class to win that race whilst I came from another angle that believed Graphic could beat those opponents.

That is what makes this sportso fascinating.
 
Hi Mtoto!

The Graphic race that he won at Kempton is the race I listed him and other horses, you said the form does not look that strong but Mister Music who finished 2nd won next time out, Loving Spirit stepped up along way in class to finish 3rd ( should have won in my opinion)

Graphic had stepped up in class each time and showed alot of improvement, aftertiming I know, but I thought he was standout in that field yesterday.

Louis pouis is one off my list today, he ran in todays race last year after racing in the Ayr Gold Cup,
He has done the same this year but finished alot closer in the Ayr Gold Cup, goes for the same race today.

Heavens Guest has already come out of Louis Pouis last race, and won the the the race in which my listed horse Loving Spirit was beaten!

  1. Have a goid day all!
 
hi formtheory know may have asked before.. but when lisiting your horses do you use speed figures thanks
 
Hi Nagwa!

I am not listing them due to their speed figures more their form but if the horse did not have an improved speed figure I would think twice about listing it.

Basically it is consistent form I am beginning my list from.

Have a good day mate,
Paul.

P.s my bets today from my lists are: York 1:50 Thouwra/New Seeker. Level stakes win on both.
York 3.30. Louis Pouis. E.W. 14-1 taken.
 
York 1:50 1 Thouwra 2 King Of The Danes 3 Butterfly McQueen
Newm 2:05 1 Lockwood 2 Darwin 3 Highland Colori
York 2:20 1 Out Of Bounds 2 Excellent Result 3 Seussical
Newm 3:50 1 Smoky Hill 2 Tiger Cliff 3 Chiberta King
Chep 4:15 1 Another Hero 2 For Two 3 Leo Luna
Newm 5:25 1 Premio Loco 2 Tullius 3 Short Squeeze
Chep 5:45 1 Storm Survivor 2 Theatrical Star 3 Al Co

1:50 All of these ratings are based on pure stats none of them have proven form as I see it.
2:05 Tough looking race with five horses with proven form in a higher class. The third best is the strongest probable, can't see any value in this race.
2:20 Out Of Bounds the only one of the three with proven form in a higher class. Top class wise in the field and therefore of the consistent horses, strongest probable. If they are thinking of the November Hcp I don't think he will have to carry any more weight for winning this. Small win Loaded place
3:50 Class wise Smoky Hill and Chiberta King are well clear of the top consistent horse Tiger Cliff both having form in higher class than this. Of these two I prefer Smoky Hill the younger horse who is improving. While I have no problem with the course, going and the distance should be ok, there has to be some doubt about the trainer/jockey and possibly the way the race MAYBE run. Small win loaded place
Neither of the NH make that much appeal
5:25 I'm passing on this as the top rated is too old. 2nd best off the track for a long time, and the 3rd rated has plenty to prove, although he is on the upgrade he has yet to perform well enough to register.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

Smoky Hill certainly looks well handicapped for this BHA 91 and Timeform LTO = 107

The Trainer has had 6 runners at Newmarket, 1 won and two placed

I don't have a Class Rating for Smoky Hill but the Top Rated Tiger Hill has the Layer being too Generous as he is Trading at 2.4 Times his Price Disparity and that is a big Negative when the layers are out to get him beaten.

Pallasator is in the Top Three Class ratings, was due to Run in the Ebor, (Prescott ran Motivado in the Ebor before finishing 4th in last years race) but according to Timeform missed the race because of a bad Scope, Ran well last time out.

The stats say that a horse who ran LTO under 2 miles = 0/136 and Pallasator has yet to run two miles or more so is unproven at the distance and therefore not for me

I think you have made a good choice in this race and Win/Loaded Place a sensible strategy

Will watch this race, but if you do bet, I hope that you collect

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Seek again I meant not New seeker, so first bet in!

Came from the same race as Graphic at Kempton then showed improved form back up in class, dropped to collect today.
 
Hi Paul

Seek Again was Top on the Chesham Class Ratings and a decent Timeform Comment for his last run

SEEK AGAIN (USA) ran well upped in trip in an even more competitive race than previously, not really having any excuses but likely to find the run aiding his development, still very lightly raced, after all; raced stand side, held up, headway under pressure 2f out, kept on; remains unexposed and probably still has some improvement in him, the sort to bag a good handicap at some point.

(Finished Closer to Graphic in this race)


I spent so much time trying to figure the 3.50 at Newmarket and few other races and by then the 1.50 had already been run without getting around to looking at that race. Glad that you made some Money of the Race though.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
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Hi,

Smoky Hill didn't quite make it, but I was fairly happy with his performance. It looked as if he really was in the race to win it, for me he just failed to stay. Out Of Bounds is a very different matter I have no idea what went wrong there. Not sure if the horse failed or the jockey, as Fallon stood himself down later in the day.

Yesterday was a little disappointing, still not sure if it is an just the end of the season thing and many of the horse just need a rest. In the main I have tried to keep away from horses that have had plenty of racing or won their quoter. The ratings are holding up quite well, or that's how it looks when I look at other peoples. I only use them to narrow the field so haven;t taken much notice if their actual strike rate, this is because even if a horse is well clear if I can't see it when reading the form I couldn't back it so I wouldn't use that rating. However because other ratings are often mentioned on this forum I have had a quick look at the results and claims of some of these. From what I can see my ratings are at least on a par with many of these other ratings and can hold their own when claims like x amount of winners from the top three. When a closer look is had about the so called top 2/3, there are often joints sometimes as many as three for each position. As the price of most of my winners is quite good I can stop worrying they should/need to be more accurate.

Of the two NH races yesterday the hurdle race cut up badly leaving no runners with proven form but the top two rated finished 2nd and 3rd, but at silly prices. The chase race was much better top three all with proven higher class form produced a 12/1 winner and a 14/1 dead heat third. So something to look forward to.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

You have posted plenty examples of your Ratings on this Forum they look good to me, often trapping the winner. I very much agree that any Ratings should be considered as just a guide.

With regards to Smoky Hill, I did watch the race and he seemed to have traffic problems during the race and the jockey was trying to switch him out but was not given any quarter by the other Jockeys. AS for Out Of Bounds how much energy did the horse use up to get the lead. To me it is a bit like a car with a limited amount of fuel in the tank, trying to get From A to B and if the you put your foot down on the Peddle in the first part of the Journey you are never going to get to B, Horses are no different.

Looking at the sectional Times for Smokey Hill and comparing them to Scatter Dice

in the early stages of the race Smokey Hill was 1.3 seconds in front of Scatter Dice and at the end of the race Smokey Hill was 1.84 seconds behind Scatter Dice

Good Luck

Chesham
 
3:45 Muss

First I'm glad to see Paul has stuck to his guns and gone with his analise of the race, why assume it is you that has made the mistake and not others.

This race hold no interest for me and have to say when looking at the form and comments I know why I keep away from races like this. On a rough count at least four different trainer have been asked to explain the running of horses in this race. I'm not for one moment implying any of them were cheating just that if the trainer didn't know what was happening what chance the poor punter? The other quite startling thing for me anyway is the amount of times some of these horses run.

Anyway I worked the race for something to do. I have started trying to do crosswords but the wife gets cross when I keep interrupting her to ask how do you spell such and such. Her answer is always look it up in the dictionary, how the hell do find a word if you don't know how to spell it. o_O

I don't need her help with solving the racing puzzles so I did this race. I wound up with
1 Discay 2 Calculated Risk 3 Bayan Kasirga

All a little obvious as they are the first three in the forecast but I didn't know that until I had finish

I had started to favour Dr Irv until I noticed he had been pulled out. I take my hat of to the brave folk that play in races like this

Be Lucky
 
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