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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

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Thankyou Mtoto!

I suppose if everyone thought the same there would not be a market in the first place!

Take care
Paul.
 
After giving myself an almighty head ache with the crossword full of useless information unless one is going to enter Pointless some time in the future. Don't think the word arboreal is ever going to be used in any of my conversations.o_O

The 5:45 seems to be the puzzle of the day on here so here goes
1 Markttag 2 Ty Gwr 3 Thereabouts



None of these have run on soft going as far as I can see so the whole thing is pure guess work. I note it has been said on another post based on pedigree Markttag won't like the going, fair enough but I prefer to rely on what the horse has actually shown on the track. The stiff track is enough to put me off without the going. Not a race for me but if pushed I would side with Thereabouts. He has shown he can handle the stiffer tracks.

The main reason for working this race was to check my ratings against the brains of the forum. I 'm posting this before I look to see what they have :idk:

Be Lucky
 
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Hi Mtoto

Please put the Crossword Puzzle down and look at the 4.20 for me at Notts. I have posted on the Class Ratings Thread but not having a bet. I know that you don't bet in class 3 but a race that might be better to examine than the Crossword Puzzle.


Good Luck

Chesham
 
Chesham,

was out most of the day and didn't see your post until too late. Out of interest I did have a very quick look and had Fennell Bay as the only horse registered on the data base. As his best form is on stiff courses I couldn't have had him at Nottingham. After having a closer look the winner had a good score that would have given him a good(ish) rating and the course looked more suitable for him.

I noted in one of your posts you didn't work the probables (Erin numbers) into your evaluations so out of interest I looked to see how my idea of them stood up.

As I'm not one of the white hens chicks and haven't got to grips with the clever stuff all the work has to be done the hard way :eek:

I have 648 class two or above races of these one of the three probables won 261 races
The strongest probable won 122
The 2nd best won 79
The third best won 60

These races include all of the top hcps and winners at prices up to and including 33/1

I not saying my idea on the probables is correct but I would love to see the results of the other ideas on it.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

Based on your method (Remember I am using Timeform Speed) I can see that the winner would have a better Rating
than the runner up. The race I have used for the winner that would confirm that
HAYDOCK PARK Saturday, 10 August 2013 GOOD to FIRM (Left Hand Galloping Track)

With regards to the Probables Rating as I was shown, the 2nd horse had the best Probables number, but it was nothing special compared to the Erin Numbers

The Figures that you quote for your Probables look good to me and having never bothered with the versions that I was shown, I can't compare your figures, but I was under the impression that VDW used them on some races and not others, is that an excuse because not all the VDW Examples fit in with their Probables Number, ???????

It looks like you have found your own Probables Method that fits in nicely with the way you rate Ability and helps you confirm if you are going to bet or not (VDW when everything lines up) along with the other aspects that you take into account. I don't think you need worry too much about the looking any further as far as Probables Numbers

Thanks for Getting back to me about the race

Edit: I think you would have The winner with a slightly worse Probables Number than The 2nd Horse, neither being brilliant numbers

Good Luck

Chesham
 
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I was under the impression that VDW used them on some races and not others.

Chesham,

Of course it could just be me, but I think the probables (Erin numbers) are used in all races. But unlike Fulham I don't think a horse has to be a probable to be a selection. I do think they are a secondary rating, and the ability is the main/important element of the methods.

An example at York the other day I had a race reading

Top on ability 1Lahaag 2 Chancery 3Van Percy
Probables 1Elhaame 2 Rio's Rosanna 3 Kiwayu

The ability ratings are the important rating and the probables ONLY come into play when none of the ability horse are consistent and/or when like in the Erin top consistent ability horse is compared to the top probable, to be a probable it has to be a consistent horse. A horse can be well up in the ability ratings using back form, so in short we have a way of judging over all form with recent form. This came about because I was always being told you must be wrong as some of the VDW selections don't have s/f so they cant be being used to measure ability. However when I looked at many/most of the horse being used to prove me wrong they also failed on the normal/other ability rating but they all showed up well in the probable as I understand it. In saying that I still can't make Son of Love work in any of the methods I have seen to explain the probable numbers.

I did see the program about weight for age and have to say while I can see an immature horse is at a disadvantage against older mature horses like handicaps I'm far from convinced weight will bridge the gap. I just can't see why anyone would think a few pounds in weight would stop an animal of that size to any great degree. For me the hcp system only works because the horses are being graded and made to run in a certain class against horse of similar class.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

There has been much talk for awhile that 3 Y-O's have an advantage over Older horses at certain times of the year and the longer the distance the greater the advantage. The Irish Handicapper and Phil Smith were saying that the weight for age allowance needs to be reduced for 3 Y-O's . Certainly having spent much of the Winter and until June, working on a Pedigree Handicapping Project, with a Few others, it was apparent that 3 Y-O had a big advantage in 3 Y-O Maiden Races, because of the weight for age allowance.

Yes, I don't understand why a few lbs makes such a difference but the Impact Values oover thousands of races say differently, when it comes to 3 Y-O having an advantage in longer distance races.

I have not looked to see if you have changed your Probables method since you last told me about them, but like the methods I am ware of they feature a play on Numbers with regards to position (s)

Using the Probables method that I was shown and the horses mentioned above, I Have listed in Order The probables. Two joint Top, Van Percy next and Lahaag is only 2 away, number wise from Rio's Rosanna & Chancery

Rio's Rosanna & Chancery
Van Percy
Lahaag

The thing that bothers me with the Probables method is that a horse could have a better Probables number than anything else and had only run in Selling races. I know their are other parts to VDW's method that would take care of that problem at some stage of his Working Platform, but it would be possible in certain circumstances for a Selling Platter to have the best Probables Number.



Good Luck

Chesham
 
The thing that bothers me with the Probables method is that a horse could have a better Probables number than anything else and had only run in Selling races.

Chesham,

While that is undoubtedly true couldn't the same be said for a/the ability rating in certain cases? That is why I added a par before a horse can automatically go on my d/base.

While I do get horses that are clearly out classed doing well in the probables rankings it surprisingly doesn't happen that often as even that simple method has built in safe guard.

Have to say I'm not that interested in the actual numbers I just rank the consistent horse and take the top three. Looking at Lahaag's race, out of the seven consistent horses Lahaag comes out 5th best behind the three already mentioned and Kashmir Peak, Chancery not being a consistent horse doesn't come into it as a probable.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

It has nothing to do with how Chancery got his Probable Rating but two races ago it had Rio's Rosanna in 2nd place behind it and they finished close to each other in the York Race, but this time RR was just in front, receiving weight

Like I say I don't use the probables method that I was shown at all and could not demonstrate the effectiveness of it and at least your version has been tested on a very decent sample of races



Good Luck

Chesham
 
Chelt 3:15 1 Captain Sunshine 2 Viking Blond 3 So Fine
Chelt 3:50 1 Pantxoa 2 Twirling Magnet 3 Minella For Value.

3:15 I don't like these qualifying races as one can never be sure why they are running to win or just qualify.
Captain Sunshine is one of these as his best form has been later in the season, around March ready for the final?
Viking Blond is different in as much as he was second in this race last season and I think he will be trying to win but the hill seems to be a problem for him. Both of these are proven in higher class than today's but I do think they will be found wanting. So Fine is the strongest probable but has plenty to find to win this. He does have form in this sort of class, but I'm not convinced about the strength of it. Apart from the two previously mentioned there is one other horse running in this with proven higher class form, Act Of Kalanisi. This horse is suited by the stiff course although to be fair his record here hasn't been that good, but reasons/excuses could be made for this. Now back over hurdles after trying the big fences and not liking it, had a reasonable prep race and this is the race chosen out of the three current entries. Tempted with a straight place bet, but will have a very small win and a loaded place.
3:50 Can't see any value here, for me anyway.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

Last year Emma Lavelle Stable was not firing and Captain Sunshine finished 6th in a Handicap at the is same meeting. The Apprentice that she has Booked since the 6th Oct has had 4 rides for her and has won 3 of those. 2nd Top on Class Ratings and Top with Yours

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Hi Mtoto

Thought you might be interested from a Book by Robert Saunders Dowste eho wrote about Horse Racing in the 1940's

It f1ts in nicely with your own method

The first aspect of consistency has to do with its certification of a horse's real class. I have suggested this already.

The second aspect of consistency has to do with its measurement of a horse's relative racing ability in a fixed class.

A third aspect of consistency has to do with the difference between steadiness in winning and steadiness in running in the money or close by.

A fourth aspect of consistency has to do with an animal's ability to remain in contention and stay with the sort of pace that probably will be set. To note that one horse in a race can run to about .46 at the half, and still keep going for a full three-quarters, and that another cannot keep within lengths of such pace, is not to depend on bare time to get a winner but rather to detect the obvious fact that the second animal is under a very definite handicap, that he must win from behind, and may not be able to get through horses ahead of him when he starts his drive. It is a simple matter to cast an eye down the half-mile calls in a sprinter's past performances and note that he usually is running first, second or third to time of about .46, at tracks fast enough to permit it, and also to note that another horse usually is fourth, fifth, sixth or worse at the same point when the time is similarly fast.

As stated above, the first aspect of consistency has to do with its certification of a given horse's real class. A racing Thoroughbred is just about as good as what he can beat; there is no other dependable measure of horse-quality. An animal may be perfect in conformation and looks; he may be bred in the purple; he may be able to break watches in morning gallops; but if he can't win he is no earthly use as a betting medium.


Good Luck

Chesham
 
Yes, but he is using American Examples and Their Race Cars which have Split Time, the Race Class (Prize Money in 1940's is hard to equate after 70 years of inflation)

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Hi Mtoto/Chesham,

Some interesting races tomorrow, would you be able to give me your opinions on Maarek and Talent please?

I have both these horses listed, having marked their card LTO.

Talent I feel marked her card when being upped in trip LTO against Leading Light, the winner won from up with the pace, Talent was held up in the rear to make headway and finish 2nd.

Leading light was Fav and had won each of his last 4 starts with progressive class ratings of 70, 100, 310, 420, then beating Talent in class 3400.

This was Talents return, a step up in trip and I feel she showed she had improved in this race?

The main concern seems to be the ground and Dalkala.

Dalkala has shown very good form LTO over 10f at Longchamp, beating Tasaday.

Tasaday was Fav and received 5lbs from Dalkala, LTO Tasaday had marked her card upped in trip and class finishing 3rd to Treve 12F class 1620, she was dropped in trip and class to collect but failed against Dalkala.

This form was at 10f, Dalkala moves up in trip to 12f and gives Talent 7lbs, only 1lb separates the two on O.R so Talent is well weighted and this could tell over the last 2f.

Maarek is giving me a few problems working out the strength of his LTO win, which on paper is a career best, stepping up in class and winning again marking his card, the trouble I am having is the 2nd and 3rd home are not that strong and were not fancied on the day?

Maarek is racing in the same race he won last year and looks sure to go well, Jack Dexter and Viztoria seem the biggest threats, Jack Dexter being the main.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.
 
Hi Paul

I don't think Jack Dexter is a anything like a Grp 2. Slade Power was in this race last year, lacked experience and looks the one that I can't rule out for this race. LTO finished 2nd to Gordon Lord Byron in a Grp 1, who last time out was winner of a Grp 3, prior to that had placed in a Grp 1 against Moonlight Cloud. After The race against Slade Power raced again against Moonlight Cloud

Maarek LTO, the 2nd horse Catrail not any thing special and time before that Beat a Handicapper

I would take Slade power over Maarek, as I think Slade Power is still improving and the Form against Gordon Lord Byron is better than the LTO Form for Maarek

Good Luck

Chesham
 
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