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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

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Hi Mtoto

hope that your Hospital appointment went well .

Regarding going back further Ahoy would have earned his VDW class rating against Charmer who won the race that they met in with a Split Second Rating of 70, so the race was truly run, 21 runners and LTO Charmer had finished 2nd in a Listed Race THe form of the race where Ahoy was 6th looks strong with the credentials that Charmer brought into the race ( Look for a winner in a race)

After his 2nd run where Ahoy finished 6th, Charmer was put away until the following year. He finished 2nd in the following years 2000Gns

Non of the participants in the Salisbury Race where Ahoy won could match that piece of back form, the question that VDW would need to know is that had Ahoy had suffucient races as a three year old to be in a situation to repeat that Back form against lesser opposition.

Braashee I have covered on the Innersanctum under Class Ratings, but in this case Braashee and his LTO performance is the race that gives him his Rating.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Hi Chesham,
Interesting post!

Do you now feel Mtoto is correct in his opinion that V.D.W used this method of ability rating and not the prize money won?

Did Ahoy also run his career best speed in the race behind Charmer?

I have been looking at horses profiles and looking at the class of races they produced there top 3 speeds in, most of the time one of these performances were against higher O.R horses they were facing when they won.

It makes sense
 
Hi Paul​

The Win Prize Money won divided by the number of wins was a basic Rating. VDW said the Class of Horse Competing is not the same as the Race Class, ie you can have a Class 2 ( Official BHA Class) that has a lesser class of horse competing than another Class 2. Mtoto' s Rating reflects the best piece of Class/Form that the individual horse has achieved so far, so is a more accurated assessment of a horses know ability than the basic Ability Rating.

VDW introduced alternative method of rating ability for horses who are lightly raced and yet to win, with Tou agori mou example. THe 80 speed figure was achieved with a certain quality attached to it when you look at the class of horse competing in that race, where the figure was earned, so it is not just the fig 80 that is important, but is a flag that confirms that a note should be made of the class of horse competing, where that horse achieved that figure.

Mtoto is confident in using that Rating, as he has researched horses like PK who also have a similar flag and not from the LTO Race against Drumgora, although the race against Drumgora indicates that PK has been conditioned enough with that effort to be likely to be able to live up to his known ability from a previous race and providing the horse was entered correctly where he had conditions in his favour, that known ability should make him a likely winner.

The race against Charmer was the highest split second rating that Ahoy had achieved prior to his Salisbury win, VDW noted his SP within the betting market and seems to suggest that perhaps Ahoy was not expected to win, because of this, and is the race where the Split Second Rating was achieved.

In answer to your question I do think that the method of Rating that Mtoto uses is a more accurate reelection of a horses Ability more so than the basic Ability Rating, Mtoto's Method of Rating Ability puts PK ahead of Beacon Light without having to make Beacon Light a non Form Horse. The Basic Abilty Rating does not put PK in front of BL

Good Luck

Chesham
 
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hope that your Hospital appointment went well .

Thanks Chesham,

All is as well as can be expected.:pray:

the question that VDW would need to know is that had Ahoy had suffucient races as a three year old to be in a situation to repeat that Back form against lesser opposition.

I'm not convinced VDW thought like that. The idea behind the method was to find a horse that had already shown enough to think if they could at least run to the standard they had achieved as a 2 year old a suitable race could be found for them. Have to admit I no longer have the 87 form book so I don't know what the class of races was Ahoy qualified in but I'm sure it must have been lower than the class 18 he won. Personally I don't think Charmer had ant real influence on the strength of Ahoy's form, the horse was being judged on his performance alone.

This isn't a method I use, but have to say looking at the races Ahoy had run in as a 3 year old I too would have had a VERY hard look at that Salisbury race. His placing at Chester was very clever he won as much for finishing last as he did for the win. I seem to remember there was another horse in the Salisbury race Red Hackle (I think) that also qualified of the list. If you have a moment could you please check and if he (RH) did qualify and note down who of the two came out of the strongest race class wise.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

Re Red Hackle

18/09/87 Class 59

Unfuwaine was 1st Speed 63 ( was having 2nd run, Had come out of the same LTO race as Red Hackle, Class 46, having finished 2nd to Minster Son who was having his first race)

Kefaah 2nd bt 1 length speed fig 60 (Was having 1st Run)

Red Hackle 4th speed 40 (Was having 2nd Run

02/10/87 Newmarket class 51


Charmer was 2nd fav and won Speed Fig 70

Kefaah was Favourite 2nd beaten 3/4 lenght Speed Fig 68 (Was having 2nd run)


Ahoy was 6th , 20/1, Speed 54 (having first run)


In 1988 Ahoy again met Kefaah (Won) in a class 100, finished 6th Speed Fig 10


Then whacked up in class to grp company prior to being placed at Salisbury compared to Red Hackle who LTO had been 2nd in a Class 12 Maiden

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Chesham asked why do posts like those from Royal Palace get such a "good" response. Well it could be for many different reasons, some I think are hoping for the clue that will explain the wonders of VDW in all its glory. That is never going to happen, but they just hope the answer will come so keep the man talking. Others just can't stand the arrogance in this case matched only by his rudeness, and have to ask for some explanations to try to get an understanding or lack of it, on the information that is being shown/given.

I wouldn't worry too much about him as I will be very surprised if he feels confident enough to join in with the pre race analysis, although I do hope I'm wrong. His posts read like a return to the first/early VDW threads/forums I'm doing the folk on here a favour by joining in. but they are too dim to understand the "clever" bits. I will just show them how clever I am but won't even try to answer any serious questions. :whistle:

Have to say I'm finding the class figures thread interesting but I'm having a problem with the weight factor, the same problem as when I read the Solidus. I can't understand why weight comes into the equation. If less weight doesn't make a horse run any faster and the higher weighted horses have a better record in hcps why is weight important? Surely it the class of the horse and/or race that is important, good class horses run faster longer.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

I don't think weight by itself is of interest, but more so when a horse has Class, Form Speed & Weight apparently in its favour.

The nearest VDW examples I can think of with regards him mentioning Weight is Canny Danny as a negative and PK as a positive. Certainly With To Agori Mou he Used Weight Based Speed ratings but advocated not altering them for weight in a race about to be run and relied on the Class that To Agori Mou achieved that Rating and allowed that to speak for itself with that example.

Thanks to AR publishing my own Class Ratings and MlRob Publishing his own Ratings including Form Plus we have a Daily continuous period of opportunity to explore both Flat and NH from that angle as a guide and will also for once take in the better class that you are likely to operate. The races that you have already covered with Pre race analysis have been very informative and given all of us an opportunity to share information in an open and constructive manner.

Both of us have been on enough Forums to know that this Forum is producing a collective approach that makes one want to share, post pre race without fear of ridicule, learn about others ideas and explore different ideas. (Wizard a good example, simple appraoch and in profit, but still trying out new ideas to improve the profitability) long may the good spirit of this forum continue

Good Luck

Chesham
 
York 3:05 1 Two For Two 2 Brae Hill 3 Osteopathic Remedy
York 4:15 1 Lahaag 2 Elhaame 3 Kiwayu

3:05 Although all three of these top rated have proven form in higher class I can't help but feel the 2nd and 3rd rated have done their running for this season. The top rated is a underachiever, so far at least, and they don't seem to be able to decide what trip the horse wants. Looking at his form this trip, course, and distance look fine. The problem then is Anderiego, all the above re trip etc also apply to him, then he has the same trainer as TFT and a eye catching jockey booking. On my bare figures without bringing weight into the equation I would take Anderiego to uphold the form of their last meeting. So I have Anderiego with proven form in higher class, joint top rated class wise over all, only failing on consistency. Being aimed at a race he ran in last year with the same jockey, it looks like a plot to me. Straight e/w bet
4:15 Lahaag is the only horse in the race with proven form in this class and that was on this course. He has been off the course for some time injured, or perhaps waiting for the ground? I'm not sure why but I do get the feeling this is a prep and the target would be something more valuable November Hcp? I'll just watch this time.

Be Lucky
 
Interesting Mtoto.

On Form my top 3 are Graphic, Two For Two and Rockalong

My own class ratings, from LTO, have Rockalong, Graphic, Two For Two

From their last 3 runs the class ratings have Anderiego, Jacks Revenge and Rockalong.

Cheham has Levitate, Graphic and Rockalong as his top 3.

Horseplayer has Graphic,Leviatate and Rockalong as his top 3.

Rockalong will carry the family shilling. He finished ahead of Consign and Ayaar lat time and they have both won since.

Sorry for hijacking your thread, thought I would put another viewpoint over rather than starting another thread.
 
Hi Mtoto & Rob

I did not have a bet in the race, but did have a look at the Stats For Haggas at York

Screen Shot 2013-10-11 at 16.07.46.png


I will set up an Alert for the Next time to he has a Runner, especially if he has Rating Support

Good Luck

Chesham
 
I notice that Graphic and Rockalong got a fair few mentions for being in the top 3 of a number of different ratings available to us on the forum, so I suppose we shouldn't be too suprised that they both finished in first 3. First and third to be exact :D
 
Hi,

I did have Levitate as the top rate horse. but after he was pulled out I re worked the race. Levitate was the strongest of the five (as it was then) horses with proven form. he was also the highest of the consistent horses class wise, and the strongest probable. After re working the race the final scores showed as per my first post and the probables read Rockalong strongest, Alfred Hutchinson 2nd best, and Graphic 3rd.

As two of the horses with the proven form failed as expected, the top rated wasn't that far out and the really big disappointment was Anderiego, I think all these rating are working from different angles, I'm taking the best form shown, after a cravat is used to measure achievement.

Sorry for hijacking your thread, thought I would put another viewpoint over rather than starting another thread.

No need to apoligse as far as I'm concerned this is what the thread is for, to talk. So can I ask how do you decide what is good form that can be trusted? As said the winner and the third both showed up as horses to consider but for me that was based on potential rather than proven form. Didn't it worry you that Graphic had just run the race of his life on a stiff course and had less than a fortnight to recover?

Be Lucky
 
Chesham on your post you have ARCHIE 4.87 what is an ARCHIE? if it's a trade secret sorry for asking
all the best
Larry
 
Hi Mtoto,

Graphic had won at Haydock Park 14 days after running fourth in the ladies diamond race at Ascot. He didn't get the best of runs that day and was none the worse for the experience subsequently winning twice.
 
mtoto said:
So can I ask how do you decide what is good form that can be trusted? As said the winner and the third both showed up as horses to consider but for me that was based on potential rather than proven form. Didn't it worry you that Graphic had just run the race of his life on a stiff course and had less than a fortnight to recover?

Be Lucky
Click to expand...

A very good question and i suspect that six members could/would give different answers.I worked the race and my top rated was Jacks revenge offered at 14/1 EP i felt this was value.I ended up not betting because although the rating and profile appeared positive or"good form" unfortunately this alone is seldom enough.My main concern despite my good rating was that the horse was still 12lbs above its last winning mark.I am not saying i would never back one under those circumstances but as i stake win singles this time it was the right call.

The reason why vdw is discussed so much is that the man wrote a lot of good sense,albeit with the blinkers on and i recall him several times stressing the need to balance all the evidence.So we have to look hard to find what appears to be good form then look even harder to decide if we can use it.?
 
arkroyal said:
I expect it to be thi s http://www.hoof.demon.co.uk/archie.html
Click to expand...
Hi Ark

Yes, that is Archie, I think the formula was was first published in one of the Smartsig magazines. When I followed NH Racing I used to subscribe to Hoof Probabilities and purchased The Punters Revenge when it first came out as it was ground breaking back then.

The Trainer Stats for autumn Handicaps with regards to She's Late (In the Class Rating Thread ) had a big Archie Score of 11. Flatstats have added Archie Scores to their data Base, so you can see if a stat is reliable.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
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