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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

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mtoto said:
Mick,

Nice swerve, I think a swerve can be like an even money winner. I will be very interested to see where they run Fruity O'Rooney next as that run really did have prep stamped all over it.

As this thread/blog isn't in the Inner sanctum I realise people don't want to go into too much detail, but can I ask why so much emphasis is place on the last run and on hcp form. Now I may have got hold of the wrong end of the stick but that's how it reads to me. Is any allowance made for prep runs and why isn't good none hcp form just as good as good hcp form?

Be Lucky
Click to expand...

Possibly i was casing Falcon island and my rating came from Oct last year 9 runs ago.I rate all a horses runs but if the best rating comes from a non hcap then i would deem it non relevant so if top for today's race it would be a swerve from a betting point of view (Dont want to use it neither bet against it).

RE Prep runs imo very important to identify and i try to do so via profiling.If a trainer has a horse on a winning mark he will not want it to run well.The intention will be an expected win or unplaced and ready for next time protecting OR and price.? Betting information will always be a motivation for many to go into ownership and few will want to lump on at short prices.?
 
Hi Mtoto

RE As this thread/blog isn't in the Inner sanctum I realise people don't want to go into too much detail, but can I ask why so much emphasis is place on the last run and on hcp form. Now I may have got hold of the wrong end of the stick but that's how it reads to me. Is any allowance made for prep runs and why isn't good none hcp form just as good as good hcp form?

I find that often Handicappers have been forced into Listed and Grp 3 Races because their Handicap Mark is too high for the Class Ceiling they can win in. For me Handicap Form to Handicap Form is more reliable (Personal Opinion)

In the inner sanctum I mentioned that the Top Rated in one handicap was dodgy because he had run twice in Non Handicap Races since his Hnadicap Class Rating was achieved

In the 3.05 the Top Rated achieved his Figure 3 races back and has since raced in Non Handicaps without any signs of improvement and seems to have deteriorating form.


In the Roushayd examples VDW was using the LTO Prizemoney as a Guide & Form from their LTO Race as part of his analysis (Although he did mention the Prize Money Class that Roushayd had won)

Although my Class ratings are based on the Class/Form of their last Handicap Race only, I do look at back form if I intend having a bet after using those Class Ratings as a Starting Point. There could be as you say a horse that was put into a race LTO with no chance of winning, just as part of putting more condition on him, while maintaining or even getting the handicap mark down

With Listed and Group races, Listed and Maiden races I use a different methods on those, especially 2 and 3 Y-O's

Everyone has their own personal way of working and there is know right or wrong way.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
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hi motto
yep no state secrets,i use inform ratings and sort by form,which I think is one of most important parts,i worked with 5 horses from that race,and rank them with points from 5 down to 1 for each category,of which there are 7 the usual back in the ring ones plus others pinched of some people on here,when I have final points awarded to each horse I usually just like to back a couple in race,if poss returns wise but if one well clear just a single,but yesterday the 3 was close so did a rev f/c
 
Red 2:15 1 Ingleby Angel 2 Swiftly Done 3 Surround Sound
Red 2:50 1 Top Notch Tonto 2 Caspar Netscher 3 Taayel
Ascot 3:50 1 Royal Rock 2 Ascription 3 Big Johnny
Newm 4:10 1 Sound Hearts 2 Bonanza Creek 3 Tuscania
Ascot 4:25 1 Enrol 2 Switcher 3 Tantshi.

The first thing I must try to do is get my mind back in focus, and that isn't going to be easy. Turned on the computer to find my ante post bet has been puled out of the Arc! Novellist was my biggest bet of the year and gone without even a run. At least this time it was down to a temperature not like my other big ante post bet Harris Tweed for the Ebor. There was nothing wrong with him, they just pulled him out and he ran and won on the same day at Goodwood.

Today there is only two races that are of any interest the 3:50 and 4:10

The 3:50 is a real puzzle as there are doubts about all seven of the highest rated, the course being the doubt for me with three of them. Then there are two who are rated that high purely on stats. Pastoral Player a runner with proven form in a higher class is nearly impossible to get an accurate handle on. This leaves me with Royal Rock, his age and the distance are major negatives. However he does like the course, can act on any going and is at his best at this time of the year. The penalty doesn't look very clever and I do wonder if he won his prep race by accident. I'm having a half stake on him small win and place and he isn't included in the rolling doubles.
4:10 this looks like the target for Sound Hearts but the worry has to be her last race. If the going was the problem I would expect her to be pulled out but she does have form on firm albeit in much lower class. Was the poor performance down to something else, did the two races in June take more out of her than expected, was she in season. Who knows, but I think she is too valuable to risk if they don't think she can do herself justice today. Small win loaded place.
 
mtoto said:
4:10 this looks like the target for Sound Hearts but the worry has to be her last race. If the going was the problem I would expect her to be pulled out but she does have form on firm albeit in much lower class. Was the poor performance down to something else, did the two races in June take more out of her than expected, was she in season. Who knows, but I think she is too valuable to risk if they don't think she can do herself justice today. Small win loaded place.
Click to expand...

Hi Mtoto

In August

Roger Varien Stable

"Mutashaded, Ambivalent and Princess Noor will miss their intended targets (Great Voltigeur, Yorkshire Oaks, Lowther Stakes) at York this week after unsatisfactory scope results.

"Unfortunately they are not the only horses which are not 100% at the present time. We have had a foreign bacteria work its way around a large number of the string causing horses to cough and show traces of mucus.

"This would explain why I have sent out very few runners over the last couple of weeks and will also mean that I will have limited runners over the next fortnight or so.

May be that Sound Heart was one those affected

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Sorry to go off track MTOTO but NOVELLIST was also my biggest bet of the year had a bit antepost but most was on yesterday nrnb but i am the oft used phrase GUTTED
all the best
Larry
btw you had the 2 redcar races spot on
 
Arc 1 Orfevre 2 Penglai Pavilion 3 Al Kazeem.

This race is the only race in the foreign I ever back in, and it has been quite good/profitable for me. In saying that it is the race I had my biggest ever lose in, the lose of stake and potential winnings, hence the user name.

For me the Arc is different from the majority of french races because it is usually run at a true pace because there are pacemakers, and the " foreign" trainers don't want it turn into a french type sprint.

Orfevre right or wrong I don't think this horse can cope with the stiff course coupled with a strong early pace. This years race looks stronger and even allowing for a better draw I can't see him being good enough.
Penglai Pavilion this horse is a real surprise and his figure maybe a little flattering, but I do make him the top rated consistent horse and joint top rated ability wise in the field. Going and distance should be no problem and has reasonable form on the course. Although he didn't run in the trails the trainer has a strong line on the field.
Al Kazeem.2nd best ability wise of the consistent horses but it has been a long hard season with too many races run on unsuitable going. All his best performances have been over 10f and I do wonder if he has had enough?

Have to admit I'm tempted to have a little on Penglai Pavilion but I'm giving it a miss, and just wonder what may/ would have been a resounding win for Novellist!!

Chesham,

Thanks for the information on Sound Hearts it did help put my mind to rest. I had read about the trainer having a bug and being out of form but I didn't realise in was about that time.

Nagwa,

You are correct Caspar Netscher did have a higher ability rating than Top Notch Tont, but if you re read my post on page five posting 84 (I think) You will see the ability rating is only one part of the ratings and other elements put Top Notch Tont on top. As explained ability is the king but other factors have to be taken into account at all times. Even if Caspar Netscher had been a better price I couldn't/wouldn't have backed him as I don't think he can
perform to that level at the present time his mind is most probably still on other things. That figure will be forgotten about until he records another figure strong enough to re register on the data base.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto!
A massive 50-1 for Penglai Pavillion!

I am struggling to see how you have him joint top?

Unless it is down to these TopSpeed ratings again!
 
Hi Mtoto

Excellent with Sound Hearts and glad that you had a good bet.

I have looked at the Arc

From a Stats perspective I understand that the last Ten Winners have won 40% of their past Races

This eliminates

Very Nice Name

Joshua Tree

Meandre

Orfevre

Going Somewhere

Hay Landa

Pirika

Sahawar
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That Leaves

Al Kazeem

Flintshire Pre Neil

Leading Light

Ocovango Prix Neil

Penglai Pavillion

Kizuna Prix Neil

Ruler Of The World Prix Neil

Intello

Treve Prix Vermeille


The Prix Neil was a good Trial Race in past years but in recent years has not been such a good trial

The Prix Vermeil has seen two recent winners and Treve won that race

Looking at The Female Tail line of recent past winners English Oak and American Oaks winners are evident and Treve has Imagine showing up along the Female tail Line.

Treve was Sired by Motivator and being a Filly I have looked along Motivators Female Tail Line and Goodbye Halo shows up, an American Oaks Winner

The weight-adjusted Timeform rating that the winner of the race has achieved in each of the last five years.142 138 142 144 136 (Av 140)


Treve already has a 141p weight adjusted Rating coming into this race

From a Place angle

Leading Light has bags of winners along his Female Tail Line
High Rise
Nashwan
Known Fact
Salsabil
Jet Ski Lady
Knights Daughter


Looking forward to way to watching the race but not having a bet

Good Luck

Chesham
 
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A massive 50-1 for Penglai Pavillion!

Paul,

I have no idea what the Topspeed figures said and although I didn't back him I think he out ran his price . The only importance I pay to the SP/market is to look for the times they have it wrong, and that is more often than many think. I had the top four based on ability as Orfevre, Penglai Pavilion, Al Kazeem, and Intello in that order. I had Leading Light as the strongest probable, followed by Treve and Kizuna. and to be honest there was nothing between Leading Light and Treve.

I am struggling to see how you have him joint top?

As I hadn't actually worked the race before yesterday and had just backed Novellist because I knew his ability rating without looking it up I was surprised as you about his ability ranking. However he would still have been joint top even with Novellist there although Novellist would have come out with a higher overall score.

I was reasonably happy with my analysis of the runners I mentioned pre race, although I wouldn't have been happy if I had backed Penglai Pavillion I thought he could have been closer than his 5th with a more thoughtful ride. Of the horses highlighted by the method/ratings only Leading Light disappointed I did think he would have performed better than he did.

P.S. I'm still getting e-mails asking questions. If any of them are from members of this forum using different user names than the ones I know as asked in my replies PLEASE ask the question here. I'm new to this blog idea and will need things to write about.;) Otherwise I may get stuck and start talking about Manchester United or even worse politics, then the the problems would really start :crazy:

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

Treve ran up to the stats for the Race and as her Pedigree suggested, but the Place Prospect, Leading Light ran nothing like I expected. never seemed to look like trying to get into the race.



Good Luck

Chesham
 
Nagwa,

Hope you don't mind but I'm answering your e-mail here,

thanks for your reply, on the forum how would you rate top notch tonto as top rated would you discount caspers rating due to being some time back prefer tonto last time out performance as better most recent form.

I refer you back to post 84 as I think that will/should answer your questions. The answer is two fold Top Notch was top rated overall because he scored better in the stats part of the method. Yes his recent win did help but that wasn't the important factor by its self, he scored because of that win, plus he was the strongest probable (Casper wasn't a probable) add in he was also the strongest of the horses with form in higher/better races.

As I said before even if Casper had been the top rated on ALL factors forgetting about the price I still wouldn't have backed him as after his stud duty he will have to re register with a worthy performance. As he does still had that performance in the book and it was reasonably recent I didn't feel I could just ignore it, I do much the same with horses that have had a fair time of injured, I wait to see if they have recovered their form before I back them, but always remembering what the horse was/is capable off,

Be Lucky
 
As I mentioned on Mtotos blog, I feel V.D.W also guaged the class of race by the amount of challenges within the final 2f.

Paul,

I'm far from convinced VDW used the amount of challenges to judge the class of the race. If it showed anything surely it is the class of the HORSE, however I think VDW was looking at the last two/couple of furlongs to gauge other things like the distance, suitability of the the course etc. I think it was Nick Mordin who mentioned the amount of challenges a horse could withstand when he was talking about how Pittsburgh Phil judged class. While the will to win is important it still has to be related to the class it is shown in.

You said before it should be possible to pinpoint a horses best Class/form performance, a very good idea!

I will be interested to see the answer to this, as for me VDW did show how to pinpoint that performance. With some selections it was the last race, but with many more you have to look/go further back.

Oh joy hospital appointments this afternoon, the draining of blood and plenty of poking and prodding. Still that attractive young lady doctor just about makes it all worthwhile, and then she gives me a certificate to confirm I'm still alive :drinks:

Be Lucky
 
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