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VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

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Echo Brian's sentiments. The one thing we all should remember is that we all do not perceive the written word in the same way. Our ability to translate words differs greatly from one person reading a thread to another. Also for the way we try to convey our thoughts into words.
Whatever we read whatever we try to say were all on the best forum going and we're going from strength to strength thanks to all who contribute and the team modding this place and to AR for inviting us in!
 
Just a quick thank you for the replies.

Mick I can only agree studying form is seldom waste a of time. I really enjoy trying to work out who will win and how the races will be run, in fact it helps keep me sane. Afraid the computer has the opposite effect. Everything I do is trail and mostly error, I just about mastered a VERY BASIC data base(s) but formulas and macros are beyond me. I had enough problem just getting used to windows 7, and stuff still just disappears in the blink of an eye.:mad:

Have to say I also agree about the " key board" warriors and how easily the written word can be misunderstood and then taken out of context . All my working life was dealing with people face to face in one way or another but have to say I'm often surprised when the toys come out of the pram as I can't see how it could have been taken as a slur or a criticism.:confused: It takes all sorts so I try to talk on the forums as I would in a face to face conversation but always trying to remember the facial expressions and body language is missing. ;)

Be Lucky
 
mtoto

I'm the same with computers, didn't get into them till I retired, although you are a lot better than I am putting your thoughts into words. I always have a laugh when folk get angry on Forums, I have a picture of them banging at a computer with steam coming out of their ears.

Enjoying your posts and the Forum as a whole.
 
When I analyse a race it is broken down into two basic elements.

One and the most important is ability. Here again there are two elements
1) form in the same or higher class.
2) and form from lower class races.

Of course the first grade is the most important and it isn’t often taken on. All of these runners are given a score to set them apart.
All the runners with “form” are ranked and the highest/best is given a score, the next highest as long as it is very close is also given a score.
All the runners that are in the first grade are sorted using what I think is the probable’s method and the top rated is given a score.
All the consistent “form” horse are ranked by their ability and given scores best down to 4th best

The other element is based on basic stats
First 5/6 in forecast I use Sporting Life
In the lowest five C/R scores (adding up the form figures)
If runner shows in both columns an extra score is added
Probable’s, ranking of consistent horses given scores best down to 3rd
A score for the most recent win from last six runs, highest score for last race win, then 2nd last race win, ditto 3rd last race, wins after that get the same score.
A small score is given to the top OR.


All the score are added up and the top three/four are then studied in detail, but the actual scores are not that important they are only used to cut the field down to find the runners that need a second look. Going, distance, course type, trainer intent, Etc. are not scored, but are what the second look is about/for.

All of this may look time consuming but in truth even a race like the Cambridgeshire took under half an hour to cut down to the most likely 3/4 . Keeping the d/base up to date is the most time consuming factor apart from having to go through the runners and cutting of all the numbers the Post adds to them, days since run, head gear, penalties, countries of birth etc.

You may notice weight isn’t mentioned at ANY stage, however apart from weight I would be interested to see/hear what other factors you would add and what score you would place on the factors I have mentioned.

Be Lucky
 
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hi mtoto, just looking at the cambridgeshire again..educate didnt seem to have the profile of previous winners low speed figures...and not consistent form
 
Sals 3:55

I worked this race but can't find anything that interests me. So I will try to use it to explain my previous post.

Mister Impatience Class horse ability wise and top rated of the three horses with higher class form. In the forecast and a consistent horse. Highest rated ability wise of the consistent horses, and second strongest probable. Hasn't won in last thre runs so no score there
Nabucco proven form but in a lower class In forecast and consistent, second best consistent horse on ability, strongest probable, highest OR won 2nd last race
King's Warrior second best ability wise and close enough to get a score in the forecast but not consistent. Won a race five races ago small score for that,
Resurge scores for form in higher class and small score for winning four races ago
Open Water in forecast and consistent, other scores for being 3rd best probable and winning a race way back
Noble Gift in forecast and consistent, and won a race way back
Viewpoint in forecast and consistent, and won a race way back

So I have 1 Mister Impatience 2 Nabucco 3 King's Warrior

At the prices only King's Warrior would interest me and nothing looks right for him here.

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtoto

Not a race to bet in, the going is heavy and an unknown for most of these, stamina will come into play. The two I would take form your List is Nabucco (Dam won the 1000Gns ) and is still lightly raced. Mister Impatience has stamina in his pedigree and was beaten into 2nd by a decent sort who looks Grp Class. Has won on Heavy Going.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
There was an interesting piece in the Racing Post today about racecourse gradings from prize money over the last 12 months.
They were graded into 5 groups.
There was a booklet on here that Boba posted to do with racecourse gradings though I think it was written in the 1970s.
Group A was Ascot, York, Epsom, Newmarket, Goodwood,Doncaster, newbury and Chester.

Epsom fascinates me here. It has three Group 1s per season and apart from the Derby meeting, it is pretty poor stuff say in comparison to Sandown and Haydock who are in Group B.

What's your take on raceourse gradings when compared with form?
 
Thanks Chesham. It is almost identical to the tables in the RP.

I would grade the Derby meeting at Epsom as Group 1 but the rest of the season I would rate the races in Group 2.
 
mlmrob said:
Thanks Chesham. It is almost identical to the tables in the RP.

I would grade the Derby meeting at Epsom as Group 1 but the rest of the season I would rate the races in Group 2.
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Hi Rob

Epsom used to be graded one based on Prize Money in 2004 and I agree that apart from the Derby it is Grade 2 quality and Also the form from Epsom is not always guaranteed to be transferred else where? But those down the field may perform better next time, because the course does not suit their galloping style

Good Luck

Chesham
 
What's your take on raceourse gradings when compared with form?

Rob,

Not sure if that question was aimed at me or just a question for all?

I don't look at the track as any sort guide to class. A class 100 is a class 100 wherever its run and is judged solely on that. Of course the course can make a big difference but that is based on the lay out of the track and that is the only time the actual track comes into the equation for me.

Of the tracks listed by Chesham I would have to agree about the position of Epsom is vastly out of kilter with my findings. In the last four seasons I have only listed 22 races strong enough to gain entry on the d/base. Doncaster has 46, Sandown 35 etc. As getting the NH d/bases up to date was more than a little boring I then did a quick check on the top rated ability horse that gained that rating at Epsom and have to say it was very disappointing I could only find one top rated winner, ok I think there were only about 20/25 races.

As Chesham says those down the field may perform better next time, because the course does not suit their galloping style, and I found quite a few Mark Johnston winner this way.

While working on the d/bases I have been looking at ways of trying to make the ability rating even stronger. I looked at races where the favourite finished close up, where the top OR was close up and didn't find any improvement. I then tried using the average OR of the field and the horses that finished close up and that didn't make much difference.:think:

All in all a frustrating day :idk:

Be Lucky
 
Hi Mtot

The only thing that VDW mentioned about courses with regards possible value of achievement was in relation to speed figures and which was better a figure at Redcar or a lower figure at Epsom?

I tend to make a mental note if the first ever run in a maiden is at one of the courses like Newmarket, Newbry, Sandown etc type courses. Apart from that I don't create any numerical pictures from any course. I do look for running style, Speed/Stamina needs when running at a particular course.

Great blog by the way, enjoyable reading.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
mtoto said:
What's your take on raceourse gradings when compared with form?

Rob,

Not sure if that question was aimed at me or just a question for all?

I don't look at the track as any sort guide to class. A class 100 is a class 100 wherever its run and is judged solely on that. Of course the course can make a big difference but that is based on the lay out of the track and that is the only time the actual track comes into the equation for me.

Of the tracks listed by Chesham I would have to agree about the position of Epsom is vastly out of kilter with my findings. In the last four seasons I have only listed 22 races strong enough to gain entry on the d/base. Doncaster has 46, Sandown 35 etc. As getting the NH d/bases up to date was more than a little boring I then did a quick check on the top rated ability horse that gained that rating at Epsom and have to say it was very disappointing I could only find one top rated winner, ok I think there were only about 20/25 races.

As Chesham says those down the field may perform better next time, because the course does not suit their galloping style, and I found quite a few Mark Johnston winner this way.

While working on the d/bases I have been looking at ways of trying to make the ability rating even stronger. I looked at races where the favourite finished close up, where the top OR was close up and didn't find any improvement. I then tried using the average OR of the field and the horses that finished close up and that didn't make much difference.:think:

All in all a frustrating day :idk:

Be Lucky
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Some very interesting comments.My starting point is my own ratings i am looking for just one horse who has a + (lbs well in ) rating .If found i then consider the race where the rating was obtained.Is it relevant to days race.? The first test for this would be does it come from a race of the same or higher class than today's contest.

What about the conditions dist course going in comparison to today.? Unfortunately the final decision as to the relevance of the rating can never be set in stone but i have found that generally the closer the two then the more potent the figure.

RE courses while i tend to let it find me as opposed to actively seeking it,i have found that a rating obtained from the same course as today's event can be viewed as a big positive. Profiling a possible bet is always the part i find hardest as often there is not enough conclusive evidence to support a conclusion but sometimes you can glean that a horse "consistently" shows its best form if not on the same course then those with similar confirmation.This can prove most useful when making that final call.
 
Font 3:50 1 Fruity O'Rooney 2 King Edmund 3 Temple Lord


It is a little early but as I have been busy working on the NH d/bases I thought I would run this race to check everything is working as it should.

My first reaction to this race was it's a prep for something bigger in the future but none of them seem to be entered in anything, As this is a bit early I'm not sure when the entries for the Cheltenham November meeting happen.

Fruity O'Rooney is giving me real problems as I didn't work this looking for a bet, but he scores the biggest score possible. He is the highest rated of the three horses with form in a higher class, he is the highest rated consistent horse, he is the strongest probable. The biggest worry is the distance, too short and his best performance was on a stiff course although there is no doubt he can handle this course being a dual winner there, I can't get away from the nagging doubt this is a prep so I'm going to pretend I haven't worked this race and give it a miss. I just hope it isn't a case of :slow:

Be Lucky
 
ascot 2:30 1,modern tutor.2,gworn,3,tinghir

not trying to hijack your thread but vdw as always fascinated me and I pick my selections based around back in the ring workings, but after reading your blog I like and have added some additions which I think will prove useful, thanks for the idea.i have the above 3 very close on my workings though
 
mtoto said:
Font 3:50 1 Fruity O'Rooney 2 King Edmund 3 Temple Lord


It is a little early but as I have been busy working on the NH d/bases I thought I would run this race to check everything is working as it should.

My first reaction to this race was it's a prep for something bigger in the future but none of them seem to be entered in anything, As this is a bit early I'm not sure when the entries for the Cheltenham November meeting happen.

Fruity O'Rooney is giving me real problems as I didn't work this looking for a bet, but he scores the biggest score possible. He is the highest rated of the three horses with form in a higher class, he is the highest rated consistent horse, he is the strongest probable. The biggest worry is the distance, too short and his best performance was on a stiff course although there is no doubt he can handle this course being a dual winner there, I can't get away from the nagging doubt this is a prep so I'm going to pretend I haven't worked this race and give it a miss. I just hope it isn't a case of :slow:

Be Lucky
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Like yourself i tend to ease my way back in to the NH and do the work but just follow on paper until mid Oct.My figs show just one plus rated in your above race, Falcon Island.His best run was FTO last season and he then appeared to lose his way.? He has not run at this course before but sometimes this can bring about some positive improvement with the unique confirmation almost by necessity re sparking some lost interest and enthusiasm.Last night he was 12/1 and currently 3/1 with Lads (one 10p R4 so 10.80/1 net) I wonder if the stable are responsible and thinking likewise.?.........Well the result now known and mine finished last.! A good swerve for both of us.!
 
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ascot 2:30 1,modern tutor.2,gworn,3,tinghir

not trying to hijack your thread

Taff,

No worries about that that's what the thread and forum is here for, to talk. Would you care to explain how you cut the field down to those three, no need for any state secrets just a quick/rough idea of your thinking. I see you mentioned one of Sad Ken's booklets, I had a look at them a few years ago. Ken was a member of a private forum and we kept in touch for a little while. He had family problems I think it was his wife that was ill and lost touch. I was always trying to get him to narrow down his selections as he found some very nice priced winners but "wasted" the returns by having so many selections/bets.

Mick,

Nice swerve, I think a swerve can be like an even money winner. I will be very interested to see where they run Fruity O'Rooney next as that run really did have prep stamped all over it.

As this thread/blog isn't in the Inner sanctum I realise people don't want to go into too much detail, but can I ask why so much emphasis is place on the last run and on hcp form. Now I may have got hold of the wrong end of the stick but that's how it reads to me. Is any allowance made for prep runs and why isn't good none hcp form just as good as good hcp form?

Be Lucky
 
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