• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

VDW Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

Status
Not open for further replies.

mick

Sire
Hi mtoto,with myself its really down to an opinion formed about the needs of an individual horse. I always like to look at and consider opposites.So often you will read race readers put up an excuse for a well backed horse "was unsuited by slow early pace"Whenever i see this i look at the winner was this why he won.? Frequently there is no previous evidence to support but occasionally there will be and this can be put to good use.

While i would not disagree that form taken from a true run race can be considered more of a positive for future use i have backed many good priced winners when the rating comes from a race which was deemed to have been run at a slow or false pace.
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi Mtoto

Have you tried using Pace Ratings to see if the Pace is likely to suit the horse that you are interested in

Smartersig have good Pace Ratings as they give a Numerical Indication of Predicted Pace.

The Two Highest Predicted Race Pace Scores Today (Most Likely To Lead or to push the pace are in red)

I have used LTO Timeform Speed Figures but you could substitute Split Second



Horse

Draw

PaceFig

El Manati (IRE),

1,

1.67

Secret Look,
,
2,

1.3

Hopes N Dreams (IRE)

,3,

4.33


Majestic Myles (IRE),

4,

1.2

Colonel Mak,

5,

3.07


Baileys Jubilee,

6,

2.37

Bix (IRE),

7,

1.53

Race Average 2.21

LTO Time Form Speed Figures

HOPES N DREAMS 97

EL MANATI 56

COLONEL MAK 24

SECRET LOOK 56

BAILEYS JUBILEE

BIX 33







Horse

Draw

PaceFig

Almuheet, 1, 1.8

Intermath (IRE), 2, 2.5

Stars Above Me, 3, 1

Storm Trooper (IRE), 4, 3.7

Kuala Queen (IRE), 5, 1.25

Invincible Strike (IRE), 6, 3.2

Race Average 2.24


LTO Timeform Speed Figures

STARS ABOVE ME 84

INVINCIBLE STRIKE 78

INTERMATH 60

KUALA QUEEN 32

STORM TROOPER 83

ALMUHEET 77

Smartersig also give the Pace for the Race Results in a Nurmerical Form which you could store next to the Data when you compile your Ability Rating when adding a horse to your data base, then would have an indication of the ideal Pace needed

Yesterday



Hamilton Park 16:50 13 f 6 Ran

King Of Paradise (IRE), 5.6

Discay, 1.8

Swinging Hawk (GER), 0

Getabuzz, 1.6


Good Luck
Chesham
 
Last edited:

mtoto

Gelding
Thanks for your efforts, but on re reading the question there can never be a sensible answer. As the ratings are based on horses that have performed well in true run races they will be the only horses that show up well. Even if I could predict a race will be slow run it is very unlikely to suit any of my rated horses o_O I haven't used or tried the Smartsig pace ratings but use Pattern form's. Here I do find they are quite good but every now and then trainers/jockey's change tactics and that is the end of that.

Mick,

You saying about your respect for handicappers brought back memory's of a discussion with a certain Mr Simon Rowlands who said the official handicapper would take this view .....He would maintain that "class" or ability should only be viewed in context, and that in the context of a handicap it should not be a consideration. When asked to explain the reply was he had trained at least three of the official handicappers so he knew what he was talking about. As a handicapper do you know what he is talking about? I couldn't get very far with him as like more than a few experts if you don't agree with them you must be some sort of idjut :doh:

Be Lucky
 
Last edited:

mick

Sire
Mick,

You saying about your respect for handicappers brought back memory's of a discussion with a certain Mr Simon Rowlands who said the official handicapper would take this view .....He would maintain that "class" or ability should only be viewed in context, and that in the context of a handicap it should not be a consideration. When asked to explain the reply was he had trained at least three of the official handicappers so he knew what he was talking about. As a handicapper do you know what he is talking about? I couldn't get very far with him as like more than a few experts if you don't agree with them you must be some sort of idjut :doh:

Be Lucky
My interpretation of what he may have meant would be that the ideal result for the official handicapper might be three horses involved in a tight finish a top middle and bottom weight.There is an old adage "Taking weight off a horses back will not necessarily make him run faster ,but putting extra weight on will slow him down"an apparent contradiction but imo full of good sense. If those he trained felt this way then they could be deemed to be working out of context.?

RE your last sentence,imo there are no experts in this game ,we are all learners with some of us learning for longer than others.So anyone who takes your mentioned attitude just makes themselves look a tit and they are the real losers.This business is full of self professed "experts" the strangest thing about this being that in my experience very few of them appear to have much money.!
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi Mtoto

You could try asking the question to the BHA Handicapper.

Sometime back on the old Mark Eaton Forum I was involved in a discussion with John D who was saying that the Sea The Stars was over rated in the Irish Champion.


John D could not see that if you can anticipate in advance how the handicapper is going to react i.e which bench mark is he going to use to rate each horse, then this can be exploited when a horse is turned out before the horse is re-assessed. Also fails to see that there is the benchmark that the handicapper has to use and the one that VDW used.

Perhaps I should have spelt out the other benchmark to John D to shut him up.

Sea the Stars beats Mastercraftsman abilty 1166 who had won a class 1419 race LTO

Sea The Stars then meets Fame And Glory abilty 2092 who has won a class 8184 LTO ( Fame And Glory had been raised in class from 2nd LTO and showed improved form)

Looking at the way VDW viewed benchmarks surely the performance of Sea The Stars in the Irish Champion was an improvement when compared to the race at York, yet John D says that Sea The Stars was over rated in the Irish Champion.


Whichever way you look at it as regards benchmarks ie the official handicapper use Mastercraftsman to judge improvement and VDW uses Fame And Glory, but either way Sea The Stars had dispalyed an improved performance in preparation for the ARC

To satisfy my own curiosity I emailed The BHA Handicappers Blog



Please can you help me with the following questions

In the Irish Champion Stakes which horse was used as the benchmark to arrive at the rating of 135 for Sea The Stars

Which horse was used as the Benchmark to rate Sea The Stars in The ARC


BHA Response

I have talked to Phil Smith our head of handicapping, and it was Mastercraftsman in the Irish Champion and Conduit and Youmzain in the Arc.

Hope that helps!

Thanks

Rob



Mtoto you would use the Ability Rating Suggested by VDW in the To Agori Mou method, so please excuse that I have used the SIAO Ability Rating in the above example.

It might be worth asking the questions direct to the BHA regarding how they handicap certain races, usually with a race that has exposed form they pick a horse who has performed up to his full ability within the class of race as a bench mark, similar to Mastercraftsman in the Irish Champion, Conduit & Youmzain in the Arc. So in that respect I think your thoughts are correct and that the BHA Handicapper are using the Class or Ability of the Benchmark Horse, as a guide.

Good Luck

Chesham
 

formtheory

Stallion
Hi Chesham!
Brilliant post!

This is an area I struggle with, when Sea the stars met Fame and glory after Fame and Glory showed much improved form stepping up to the 8184 and was dropping in class against Sea The Stars, on a class basis I would have thought Fame and Glory had the edge if trying to split the two- distance would be a factor but I would struggle on class.

When using the ability rating and the class rating together for bench marks, what exactly do you do with the information?

Sorry for being daft, I am at no where near your level,
Really interesting post
Thanks.
Paul.
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi Chesham!
Brilliant post!

This is an area I struggle with, when Sea the stars met Fame and glory after Fame and Glory showed much improved form stepping up to the 8184 and was dropping in class against Sea The Stars, on a class basis I would have thought Fame and Glory had the edge if trying to split the two- distance would be a factor but I would struggle on class.

When using the ability rating and the class rating together for bench marks, what exactly do you do with the information?

Sorry for being daft, I am at no where near your level,
Really interesting post
Thanks.
Paul.

The discussion with John D was about the fact that there are different Bench Marks that VDW used. Mtoto has covered one regarding Ability VDW: The important thing is to establish proven ability and here a previous Speed figure of 80 plus should give a reasonable base.

Proven Ability at a measurable level

VDW said the Class of Race can be Different to the Class Of Horse Competing

Sometimes he mentions other horses, Sunset Christo VDW: The form is impressive and note not only how it ran but what it had behind it , Silver Buck, Another Captain

The two horses mentioned competed in separate races against Sunset Christo. VDW is indicating that Form should be measured against the ability level of the horses that Sunset Christo had behind him, he was using these runners as a benchmark for the quality of the form that Sunset Christo Presented

The BHA Handicapper for races where there is exposed form, will to a certain extent use a horse or horses as a bench mark to arrive at what he thinks, is a suitable handicap rating that measure the current level of ability for the winner. Horses below the Bench Mark Horses may see their Handicap Marks drop (Not always though)

You will have seen that Mick will make a note of a certain performance and will rate that horse at a certain level. He may have to wait for a horse to drop down the handicap and will then be well in against the Rating (Ability) that Mick thinks the horse is capable of. Providing the Trainer has placed the horse correctly and Mick thinks the odds available are worth the risk involved, he will invest in the race.

You will find that Mtoto also has a measure of a Horses Ability using a different measure to Mick and also may have to wait until he thinks the horses is being placed in a race where he can win and at Odds worth the Risk of investing in.

Both have experience using their respective measures and as VDW said you can have all the ingredients for a cake but unless you have a culinary expertise you will not necessarily make a good cake. To a certain extent they are intuitive as a result of their years of experience using the methods that they use. (HARD WORK)



Now to answer your Question

This is an area I struggle with, when Sea the stars met Fame and glory after Fame and Glory showed much improved form stepping up to the 8184 and was dropping in class against Sea The Stars, on a class basis I would have thought Fame and Glory had the edge if trying to split the two- distance would be a factor but I would struggle on class.

Remember VDW said the Class of Race can be Different to the Class Of Horse Competing

Apply that to the Class Of Form, judged on the LTO Race for Fame And Glory & Sea The Stars

Prior to the Irish Champion
LTO
Fame And Glory had in 2nd Golden Sword, who's finest achievement had been to win a grp 3 OR= 109 when competing against Fame And Glory. Timeform Rated Golden Sword 122 for that performance





Now compare that LTO performance with that of Sea The Stars

Sea The Stars had Mastercraftsman in 2nd OR 122 LTO Won a Grp 1
Timeform Rated Mastercraftsman 129 for that race

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Last edited:

mtoto

Gelding
Well today was a bit like all out yesterday what with EC and then JohnD getting a mention. Two very different types, although both could be dogmatic with their opinions. EC to me was very knowledgeable, and could be helpful and interesting. From memory he was a bit of a stats man and to be honest until I found out Chesham was Class form I did wonder if he was EC with another name. He, EC was always pushing for pre races discussions and selections. In some of the quieter moments I wonder if EC is still around.

JohnD was very interested in VDW but unfortunately he always thought he knew more than he did, and would get quite vitriolic if you didn't agree with him. Like many VDW followers at the time, although there are still a few around still. Of course with my very different ideas on VDW's I was ripe for many a slagging, although to be fair he didn't just reserve the abuse for me he did spread it around. In directly I think he played a major role in the demise of Gummys. There again Gummy should have been a little more forceful and stopped the abuse, then the more interesting contributors would have stayed put. It is a shame when these forum shut down as so much information is often lost forever.

Mtoto you would use the Ability Rating Suggested by VDW in the To Agori Mou method, so please excuse that I have used the SIAO Ability Rating in the above example.

Actually this is quite a good example of why I prefer the the speed merit method and why prize money can often lead one astray. It was VDW who said
The quality of horses engaged is more to the point. For me there was no real problem deciding between Sea The Stars and Fame and Glory, Sea The Stars can out of the stronger race.

Be Lucky
 

formtheory

Stallion
Hi Chesham,
  1. One thing that interested me from your post was that you said the handicapper would pick a race with exposed form where a horse had ran to their full ability in that class of race.
In Lee's examples although I understand he was not V.D.W, I have
all the ability ratings for each of his examples and the winner of the race always had won in a class of race above his ability rating lto and had done so again on the day.

So the winner had ran to its full ability if taking the class rating at face value, this is evident in each example, was this a way Lee was guaging form?

Would this type of thinking not show
Beacon Light out of it on RECENT form?

I know this has gone around and around for years and do not wish to start it all up again but with this thinking would he not look weak compared to Prominent King who have weight to Drumagora who LTO
Had ran to his full ability finishing 3rd in a class 116?

V.D.W said two SETS of rating, could he not of used the Ability rating and the class rating twice?
Once on the individual horse then on the opposition?

Lee said the two sets of rating were highlighted within V.D.Ws formula and were used in all the examples even through Roushayds.

Roushayd was beaten by horses that ran above their ability rating on each of his last 3 races.
They had shown better RECENT form than Roushayd
 

formtheory

Stallion
My message was cut short there!

The above were just thoughts that I thought all of you would have opinions on and maybe be able to throw some light on to the situation.

We had Fame and Glory showing improved form due to rising in class but if the form was not worth as much as a lower rated race does that mean we cannot trust the fact that Fame and Glory improved?

It is all very interesting and It is brilliant to be on a forum with such open, willing to offer help people who obviously know the game inside
out.

Chesham your approach you detailed previously with the use of Timeform ratings, would you deduct for a rise in O.R or just the physical weight and the class ceiling?

Is there anychance you could detail this a little further?
I found this very interesting as I am sure so did many others!

Hope you have a good day,
Paul.
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi Paul

The post that I made about Sea The Stars and separating the difference of form from Fame And Glory was to explain The Class Of Race Is Different to the Class Of Horse Competing. I mentioned Mtoto's valid method as one way, the Ability Rating of the horses that finished respectively in 2nd Place, The OR of those 2nd horses and Finally the Timeform Rating. basically all methods showed that Sea The Stars so far had the better Form based on the class that the form was established.

All races throw up different problems and what can seem to be the best horse because he won a higher class race is not always the best piece of Form in the race. with VDW you need to be careful that you don't try to turn it into a System, it is a METHOD
Good Luck

Chehsam
 

Chesham

Sire
Paul

Phil Smiths Blog (Head Of Handicapping is always worth a read as it will give you almost a tutorial in Handicapping, eventually like Mick you may disagree with his rating and be in a position to know differently to the crowd, although you should not be that much adrift from the official rating, if so you have probably got it wrong.

Quote Phil Smith from his blog for the results of the St Leger

As with Camelot, Leading Light was sent off favourite, though with odds of 7/2 the expectations weren’t quite so high as with 2/5 priced Camelot one year ago. That said, there was obviously a lot of confidence behind Leading Light and it proved justified as he won on merit despite the runner-up, Talent, being slightly interfered with by third-home Galileo Rock under 2f out.

Leading Light has now registered five victories in a row since finishing fourth on his debut and is clearly a high-class colt. From a ratings point of view, however, he would not appear to be a vintage St Leger winner.

Much like when he won the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot, it is not easy to justify a particularly high view of the race due to the form of those in behind. I’ve gone for 117, which is a minimum considering the third and fourth (Libertarian) held those ratings beforehand, but my view was tempered by the fact those two had failed to run to their marks on their most recent outings, as had Talent.

Those further down the field rather hold down the form too. I have fifth-placed Foundry running to 112, which would tie in with his previous run, when second to the 113-rated Telescope in the Great Voltigeur. He has essentially repeated that effort as Secret Number was half a length behind him in sixth, having finished the same distance behind him at York.

Ralston Road, seventh here but beaten by only about six lengths, went in rated 98 in Ireland and appears to have run 10lb better than that, while just behind him, Havana Beat and Great Hall also appear to have improved slightly on what they had done pre-race.

Of course, there is a chance that those outside the top half-dozen are flattered and this view could be a little low. That said, the pace, while far from strong, didn’t appear particularly steady either, and the time suggests they weren’t hanging around too much.

If I do go back and change the level I have taken, when hindsight comes into play, it’s more likely I will be raising it rather than lowering it. For now though, this is the lowest rated winner of the Leger since Mastery in 2009. Ironically, Mastery went on to do better than the next three Leger winners put together. In 2010, Mastery won the Hong Kong Vase having earlier taken a Listed race and finished his career rated 120.

Arctic Cosmos could manage only one more win after the 2010 Leger and that was at a much lower level. Masked Marvel has met with defeat on several occasions since his win in 2011, while 2012 winner Encke has not run again since.


Good Luck

Chesham
 

mtoto

Gelding
The above were just thoughts that I thought all of you would have opinions on and maybe be able to throw some light on to the situation.

Paul,

As I have heard most of the ideas talked about more than once. I tend to pay special attention to the new (er) comers to VDW. This is in the hope they may just come up with some fresh thinking.

Now this isn't a criticism but your previous post has lost me. You said.....In Lee's examples although I understand he was not V.D.W, I have all the ability ratings for each of his examples and the winner of the race always had won in a class of race above his ability rating lto and had done so again on the day. I'm afraid I don't understand what you mean as the one example of Lee's I agreed 100% with was Byron, and I can't see how you can come to that conclusion. The way I read Byron's ratings is he went into a class 580 race (the way you work) with an ability rating of 190 aprox if I have misunderstood anything I apoligise.

I know this has gone around and around for years and do not wish to start it all up again but with this thinking would he not look weak compared to Prominent King who have weight to Drumagora who LTO

I agree this has gone around and around but I really do believe until one understands the logic they will never understand VDW. For me it is so VERY important. It is the easy way out just to label Beacon Light as an out of form horse based on what? Surely the kicker has to be to find a way of making BL well out of it on two separate ratings and I have never seen that done, I can do it using one set but even then not used in the conventional way. Alao I can't find a logical way to make Mr Kildare even close to Pk so how can he be the horse that was equal on one set and very close on the other ? In fact I don't read the passage as VDW ever saying MK was that horse, he said he was left with him. My thinking is VDW rated the five horse mentioned PK can out best overall with one of the others equal and one of the others just behind him, Both of these horses had been eliminated using other ratings ( here I think four sets were used, two to find the consistent horses, and two to back up what the bare figures said) so he was LEFT with MK by default if you like.

Be Lucky
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi Paul

During 2009 I tried what I thought was Lee’s List Method with another VDW enthusiasts

These are a Couple of emails to explain how we were working the method how we saw it at the time.

Rockhampton appears to meet the Lee Criteria

Won Class 84 maiden in March, then stepped up massively in class (2166) and finished 3rd to Naheem, who was stepping up in class who won LTO.

Rockhampton is dropping in class and has to beat Space Telescope who is having his first run of the year and picks up a 4lb penalty for his win being over 10,000 Euros.

Crap odds though

Horse, LTO Class, Timeform Rating, Timeform Speed Rating
Space Telescope, 105,, 106p, ?
Rockhampton, 2166, 117p, 117
Billys Dream,
Walk Beside Me


There are two from the list in this race.

LTO Monsieur Chavalier won Bookmaker Of the Year Conditions stakes for Richard Hannon. Below is from the By2r site

Richard Hannons Previous record in this race and what the horses achieved later.
    • 2002 - 4th with Monsieur Boulanger on 3TO after a STO maiden win but at
    • 10/1 & a sure sign of an ordinary one
    • 2003 - 4th of 4 with 5/6f Signor Panettiere who set a storming pace that allowed a horse adrift at halfway to trundle into the win
    • 2004 - Won with Cornus who won his first three races.
    • 2005 - Won with STO Cool Creek who went on to a Group 2 win.
    • 2006 - Won with Gilded who was also successful in the Queen Mary; Resignation made his debut at 5/1 & a later Conditions winner
    • 2007 - None, His debut winner Fat Boy missed the race & ran at Ascot in early May instead.
    • 2008 - Later start to his season & ran newcomer Icesolator who was unplaced at 8/1 and won three races up to Listed level at 2yo.

Last year the winner of the above race was Art Connoisseur who won the Coventry Stakes next time out.

15Apr09 Newmarket (5GF ,RPR100)
I haven't come across one like him for quite a long time. You could take him to bed with you. He's a great character. He's the best I've seen this year, mind you we've only had five two-year-old races! He's an Ascot two-year-old until we see anything better but I would rather go somewhere with a bit of ground. If it turns up fast at Ascot he wouldn't go there. - Richard Hannon, trainer

Monsieur Chavalier beat Hearts of fire in the above race and Hearts of Fire who had LTO won a class 113 beating Archer Road.

Archer Road was dropped in class next time out and won.

Monsieur Chevalier has won a much higher class and recognised race for better things to come than Archers Road's winning races.

Previous winners time form ratings 119, 97,113,106,106

Monsieur Chavalier is well inside the band with 115p

Horse, Timeform, Timeform Speed

Monsieur Chevalier, 115p, 108
Archers Road, 113, 104
Kirsty´s Boy, 97, 94
Ailsa Carmel, 94p, 89

Good Luck

Chesham
 

formtheory

Stallion
Hi Mtoto!
I am sorry I am not good at putting my thoughts into words.

You are right about Byron but I meant he was beaten by a horse in top recent form based on his ability rating as last time out he finished 2nd in a class 1642 then won the class 1398 with an Ability rating of 316.
V.D.W said form should be equated with class, would this not be a way of doing this?
Chesham said a bench mark should have exposed form-2nd last time out,
Won this time.
Ran to his full ability- ran well in a race class way above his ability rating.
Byron had been running well in races above his ability rating, beaten by horses who had shown form above there ability ratings.

The opposite of Beacon light, beaten in a race class lower than his ability rating, by a horse with a smaller ability rating who had no recent form above his ability?

Prominent king was beaten in a lower class race than his ability rating but was beaten by the fav who recieved alot of weight from P.King, and last time out Drumagora had shown form way above his ability rating in a class 116.

When you look at the Pegwell bay example you can see the same thing with Smar Tar etc..?
 

mtoto

Gelding
The opposite of Beacon light, beaten in a race class lower than his ability rating, by a horse with a smaller ability rating who had no recent form above his ability?

Paul,

If you consider the above is enough to stop BL being the selection, why isn't it enough to stop Celtic Pleasure? Celtic pleasure with an ability rating of 42 runs and is beaten in a class 20 after just winning a class 69. Like BL he was dropping in class for the third time his last three races had been 88, 69, 20, like BL his s/f was lower than in his previous race. None of this stops him being the selection for a class 30 next time out, To be fair I have no idea what the ability rating of the winner of the class 20 was but he was coming out of a class 13 after winning it.

Back to the Erin it is fair enough saying PK's form is good based on Drumgora's good form the 3rd in the 116 but how good was his last race in the much lower 17?

To be honest I don't have any/many records of the A/R's of the competitors other runners ran against in the races used as examples so I have no idea of Sea Pigeons A/R but I do think you are dismissing him to lightly. While I'm not surprised if it is lower than BL I don't think he would be far outside the top few in the Erin. Even after saying that I think PK would STILL have been the VDW selection even if the Pigeon had run in the race, PK's best was better than any of the consistent horses.

Be Lucky
 

formtheory

Stallion
Cheers Ark!

Hi Mtoto!

I am open to all ideas, you have obviously done well with your interpretation, can I ask how you came to the conclusion you did?

I must say that everytime I think about your idea of the ability rating I will check some results from the days racing, the race I looked at today was the race won by Gospel Choire, he had an ability rating of 100 using the Racing Post, so he was well capable of running well against today's competition.

I have tried to take a simpler route than what I was doing before as I was confusing myself, I just started by rating the field for ability (prize money) then looked at each horse from the top of the list down.

Many choose the top ability horse that is in form but I have been trying to find the horse who is not far from the top class wise but has shown the BEST recent form.

I have not done too bad Tawhid and Willie the Wipper were my two best from the weekend, Remember you would have been closer I feel if it was not for "The Carnage on the inside" as Tom Queally put it.

The only thing I want to achieve with my racing is to look at a race and know exactly what I am doing!

The only worry I have utilising your ability rating is that it relies on the opinion of the speed ratings compiler, as you have said to me before, we would come up with different horses if I used the Racing Post figure and you use Split Second?

How should this be? If we are looking for the class horse surely we would find the same horse?

I am not for one minute knocking your idea as it makes loads of sense and you have been good enough to help me, but it is my only genuine worry.

One thing I have noticed with regards to the V.D.W examples and so has Hedgehog, is pace.

V.D.W often says the horse "did nothing from the distance" - or "less of a test"

Green hills joy- won but less of a test (4th in the straight LED 2 out, Ridden and ran on well) not challenged in last 2 furlongs.

First division- Headway on inside 2 furlongs out, squeezed through over 1 out, ran on well inside final furlong.
The competition in this race who challenged for the early lead did so within the last 2F, in GreenHills Joys race any challenge was made and failed before the last 2 furlongs.

Shimshek- THE HORSE DID NOTHING FROM THE DISTANCE. When looking at the race before it shows a considerable downturn so 'not on' here.

When we look at his form, last time out 3rd class 70 ( led 2f out, ridden over 1f out,ran on)
Look at the horses around him, the first 4 home took the lead at some point during the last 2 furlongs.

Next time out, upped in class group 3 250, this was a downturn finishing 2nd how?
Maybe as the winner made all, Shimshek was a front runner who sat in 2nd from 2f out and finished 2nd ( nothing from the distance)
The winner had no recent form, and lower ability rated horse than Shimshek.
Pace should have suited Shimshek.

Failiq- dropped in class but did not get enough from the distance ( led over 7f ,led well over 1f out) yet beaten dropping in class by a horse moving up in class who was held up.

Failiq surely should have won but the pace shows he has not got the class of Billet.

Billets next race was described by Lee of having class in more ways than one.

Look at the amount of runners that challenged for the lead within the final 2f, Roushayd made headway 5f out and gave weight all round, I am not 100% why this was such a good performance by Roushayd disregarding the speed figure.

I feel this is a massive part, interesting!

Take care
Paul.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top