JIB Ratings
- Thread starter trecelyn
- Start date
trecelyn
Filly
Would have preferred them the other way round but a win is a win in my eyes but I know some on here will not see it that way. Anyway my thoughts are as follows.
The ratings have been steady if unspectacular but by adding some trends for horse types that have performed well in the type of race being looked at there have been obvious improvements. By posting on an open forum like this it tends to focus ones attention on getting things right before posting your selections up which again is an obvious plus.
I do not normally go below class 3 so I have no qualifying races tomorrow. I did look at the class 4 races but struggled to confidently put a case together for any of my top rated. Previously this is where I would wander off looking for a selection and the blocks would all come tumbling down.
The ratings have been steady if unspectacular but by adding some trends for horse types that have performed well in the type of race being looked at there have been obvious improvements. By posting on an open forum like this it tends to focus ones attention on getting things right before posting your selections up which again is an obvious plus.
I do not normally go below class 3 so I have no qualifying races tomorrow. I did look at the class 4 races but struggled to confidently put a case together for any of my top rated. Previously this is where I would wander off looking for a selection and the blocks would all come tumbling down.
trecelyn
Filly
Dont think any lurkers would gain much from this thread
Larry however more interaction is what we are all after isnt it? Perhaps I should consider going onto the IS
Been a quiet week up till now but thats how these ratings tend to work, very little at start of week before gradually building up to some action fri-mon.
Friday 2/10 Ascot 4.10
Fandom and Badri top my ratings. Badri fails on one of my profiles for this race which leaves Fandom on which to concentrate.
He has placed twice at the track and on the forecast going. The figures I calculate tell me he has the class, negatives, he is a pound above the last winning mark and how much did the race last weekend take out of him, 6 days is not very long to recover. Undecided on how to proceed with this race at moment, will sleep on it and come back later.
Larry however more interaction is what we are all after isnt it? Perhaps I should consider going onto the ISBeen a quiet week up till now but thats how these ratings tend to work, very little at start of week before gradually building up to some action fri-mon.
Friday 2/10 Ascot 4.10
Fandom and Badri top my ratings. Badri fails on one of my profiles for this race which leaves Fandom on which to concentrate.
He has placed twice at the track and on the forecast going. The figures I calculate tell me he has the class, negatives, he is a pound above the last winning mark and how much did the race last weekend take out of him, 6 days is not very long to recover. Undecided on how to proceed with this race at moment, will sleep on it and come back later.
trecelyn
Filly
Having turned this over a few times, I have not had a winner at odds over 12-1 with my ratings so sticking with past results I will relunctantly reject Fandom for Ascot tomorrow. Still struggling to accept the fact I am going against the ratings I have worked so hard on and if Fandom does me dirty tomorrow I will probably go into hiding for 6 months
gerry
Mare
Your rating should be the start anyway
trecelyn and have to look at the day of race to see if things falling into place to.
So dont be to tough on yourself either way look at the race once you have your top rating horse if ground distance and class ok bet it if not you have every reason to leave it and if you dont over 12/1 a other great reason to leave it
odd do make difference there no doubt about it.
trecelyn and have to look at the day of race to see if things falling into place to.So dont be to tough on yourself either way look at the race once you have your top rating horse if ground distance and class ok bet it if not you have every reason to leave it and if you dont over 12/1 a other great reason to leave it
odd do make difference there no doubt about it.
trecelyn
Filly
Shortlist completely reshaped after closer analysus and filters applied
Newm 2.10 - I had 4 horses to review after I rated it and got down to Evansco and Primo Lara, finding it really diffucult to split them but if I had to make a choice it would be Evansco
Newm 3.50 - lots of 3 year olds which confuses the hell out of me. Havanah Pusey can blow the start, which leaves me with Velvet Rhythm as one of my bets today
Ascot 4.10 - Regal Envoy is my top rated but fails on 3 of my filters, next up is Gold Star Hero and with early races showing that prominent racers today are proving difficult to pass must go close. However one at a bigger price and a fair chance is Glamorous Breeze, may not win but with the bookies paying 4 places its a good bet to place @ 14-1
Redcar 4.35 - joint top rated Classic Encounter and Nyman, difficult to make a call on this one and will probably end up just watching
A word on Fandom yesterday, seemed not to finish off his race and perhaps the short turn around may have not helped
Newm 2.10 - I had 4 horses to review after I rated it and got down to Evansco and Primo Lara, finding it really diffucult to split them but if I had to make a choice it would be Evansco
Newm 3.50 - lots of 3 year olds which confuses the hell out of me. Havanah Pusey can blow the start, which leaves me with Velvet Rhythm as one of my bets today
Ascot 4.10 - Regal Envoy is my top rated but fails on 3 of my filters, next up is Gold Star Hero and with early races showing that prominent racers today are proving difficult to pass must go close. However one at a bigger price and a fair chance is Glamorous Breeze, may not win but with the bookies paying 4 places its a good bet to place @ 14-1
Redcar 4.35 - joint top rated Classic Encounter and Nyman, difficult to make a call on this one and will probably end up just watching
A word on Fandom yesterday, seemed not to finish off his race and perhaps the short turn around may have not helped
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trecelyn
Filly
Newm 2.10 Did not have the winner anywhere near the top. Evanesco ran a good race to finish secomd whilst Primo Lara did not figure
Newm 3.50 Top rated Havana Pusey started on terms and won well, Velvet Rhythm ran ok without really threatening
Ascot 4.10 Should have stuck with Gold Star Hero instead of trying to look clever and finding a bigger priced horse
Redcar 4.35 1st and 2nd going unbacked summed my betting day up
On the whole the day was a good one apart from my final decision making, 3 winners @ 14-1,7-2 & 14-1 plus 3 other placed horse gjves me hope moving forward. No suitable races tomorrow but 5 on the radar for monday.
Newm 3.50 Top rated Havana Pusey started on terms and won well, Velvet Rhythm ran ok without really threatening
Ascot 4.10 Should have stuck with Gold Star Hero instead of trying to look clever and finding a bigger priced horse
Redcar 4.35 1st and 2nd going unbacked summed my betting day up
On the whole the day was a good one apart from my final decision making, 3 winners @ 14-1,7-2 & 14-1 plus 3 other placed horse gjves me hope moving forward. No suitable races tomorrow but 5 on the radar for monday.
trecelyn
Filly
Yarm 4.05 - Lucky Hero
Box To Box 95 - the physical weight he has to carry puts me off
Vincent Perrugia 95 - recent form is not the best but with 1st time cheek pieces and tbe erratic results from the Johnston stable cannot rule out
Lucky Hero 94 - by far the most consitent of my top rated and I believe his performance LTO was his best, same mark, more to come
Yarm 4.40 - Media Legend
Media Legend 88 - season best performance LTO, repeat here should see him go close
Galileo Island 88 - mark is dropping but does need an improvement in form to figure
Colonnade 87 - have to admit evaluating non hand form is my kryptonite, may have this totally wrong but has a chance with me
Kemp 6.45 - Mesaafi
Buccabay 90 - bit inconsitent recently but does have the form to take this
Mesaafi 89 - now below his last winning mark, Gold Star Hero who finished in front of him LTO franked the form yesterday
Box To Box 95 - the physical weight he has to carry puts me off
Vincent Perrugia 95 - recent form is not the best but with 1st time cheek pieces and tbe erratic results from the Johnston stable cannot rule out
Lucky Hero 94 - by far the most consitent of my top rated and I believe his performance LTO was his best, same mark, more to come
Yarm 4.40 - Media Legend
Media Legend 88 - season best performance LTO, repeat here should see him go close
Galileo Island 88 - mark is dropping but does need an improvement in form to figure
Colonnade 87 - have to admit evaluating non hand form is my kryptonite, may have this totally wrong but has a chance with me
Kemp 6.45 - Mesaafi
Buccabay 90 - bit inconsitent recently but does have the form to take this
Mesaafi 89 - now below his last winning mark, Gold Star Hero who finished in front of him LTO franked the form yesterday
trecelyn
Filly
Yarm 4.05 - Lucky Hero
Box To Box 95 - highly likely the big physical weight caused the fade in the final furlong
Vincent Perrugia 95 - typical stable runner that bounces back after poor recent run 1st 12-1
Lucky Hero 94 - poor run from a consistent horse
Conclusion - should have dutched the top 2 rated
Yarm 4.40 - Media Legend
Media Legend 88 - ran as I had hoped 1st 3-1
Galileo Island 88 - odds of 40-1 for a reason, had poor recent form to overcome
Colonnade 87 - massively over rated this one, not for the first time with such horses
Conclusion got this one right, should not be looking at horses with odds around 40-1 and be wary of taking non handicap form into handicaps
Kemp 6.45 - Mesaafi
Buccabay 90 - inconsitent yet again, but ran too poorly to be true
Mesaafi 89 - form of previous race starting to work out well 1st 5-2
Conclusion - one correct, the other totally wrong
Overall the day went really well, 2/3 winners with the selections. Gutted to have missed the 12-1 winner in first race, similar story to saturday. No selections tomorrow.
Box To Box 95 - highly likely the big physical weight caused the fade in the final furlong
Vincent Perrugia 95 - typical stable runner that bounces back after poor recent run 1st 12-1
Lucky Hero 94 - poor run from a consistent horse
Conclusion - should have dutched the top 2 rated
Yarm 4.40 - Media Legend
Media Legend 88 - ran as I had hoped 1st 3-1
Galileo Island 88 - odds of 40-1 for a reason, had poor recent form to overcome
Colonnade 87 - massively over rated this one, not for the first time with such horses
Conclusion got this one right, should not be looking at horses with odds around 40-1 and be wary of taking non handicap form into handicaps
Kemp 6.45 - Mesaafi
Buccabay 90 - inconsitent yet again, but ran too poorly to be true
Mesaafi 89 - form of previous race starting to work out well 1st 5-2
Conclusion - one correct, the other totally wrong
Overall the day went really well, 2/3 winners with the selections. Gutted to have missed the 12-1 winner in first race, similar story to saturday. No selections tomorrow.
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trecelyn
Filly
Nott 3.29 Quisana
Dukes Command - 95 appears to be coming into form, looking potentially well handicapped, jockey rarely rides for stable?
Quisana - 94 returning to a mile here, looks sure to go close
Nott 3.59 Princess Rascal EW
Princess Rascal - 92 hasn't been pulling trees up this season, but if cheekpieces liven her up she is well treated
Brighton View - 90 down in trip and class, has won off higher
Nott 4.29 Edwin Hubble
Del Corso - 90 good course form in the book, serious contender here
Edwin Hubble - 89 consistent gelding that could give Tom Marquand a very good day
Saphire Steps - 89 mark continues to ease due to poor recent runs, could new trip spark a revival?
Dukes Command - 95 appears to be coming into form, looking potentially well handicapped, jockey rarely rides for stable?
Quisana - 94 returning to a mile here, looks sure to go close
Nott 3.59 Princess Rascal EW
Princess Rascal - 92 hasn't been pulling trees up this season, but if cheekpieces liven her up she is well treated
Brighton View - 90 down in trip and class, has won off higher
Nott 4.29 Edwin Hubble
Del Corso - 90 good course form in the book, serious contender here
Edwin Hubble - 89 consistent gelding that could give Tom Marquand a very good day
Saphire Steps - 89 mark continues to ease due to poor recent runs, could new trip spark a revival?
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trecelyn
Filly
Nott 3.29 Quisana
Dukes Command - 95 appears to be coming into form, looking potentially well handicapped, jockey rarely rides for stable?
Quisana - 94 returning to a mile here, looks sure to go close
Conclusion Dukes Command never figured, the jockey booking which would have caught some peoples attention, when actually looked at was a negative move I think. Quisana ran her race again without looking like winning. Had the winner 2 pts behind the top rated
Nott 3.59 Princess Rascal EW
Princess Rascal - 92 hasn't been pulling trees up this season, but if cheekpieces liven her up she is well treated
Brighton View - 90 down in trip and class, has won off higher
Conclusion buoyed by some recent double digit winners, I went looking for the bigger price and crashed and burned with Princess Rascal. Brighton View ran too bad to be true, on the whole the race was a disaster with the winner being joint bottom rated for me, so never looked at it
Nott 4.29 Edwin Hubble
Del Corso - 90 good course form in the book, serious contender here
Edwin Hubble - 89 consistent gelding that could give Tom Marquand a very good day
Saphire Steps - 89 mark continues to ease due to poor recent runs, could new trip spark a revival?
Conclusion Del Corso never travelled and was beaten very early, Sapphire Steps finished just in front of him and another 40-1 highly rated loser. Thankfully Edwin Hubble saved the day , just.
On the whole a profit is a profit. Got to learn to trust the betting market a bit more. The only issue with that one being, I rate the races 24-48 hrs in advance and more often than not no market has been formed.
Dukes Command - 95 appears to be coming into form, looking potentially well handicapped, jockey rarely rides for stable?
Quisana - 94 returning to a mile here, looks sure to go close
Conclusion Dukes Command never figured, the jockey booking which would have caught some peoples attention, when actually looked at was a negative move I think. Quisana ran her race again without looking like winning. Had the winner 2 pts behind the top rated
Nott 3.59 Princess Rascal EW
Princess Rascal - 92 hasn't been pulling trees up this season, but if cheekpieces liven her up she is well treated
Brighton View - 90 down in trip and class, has won off higher
Conclusion buoyed by some recent double digit winners, I went looking for the bigger price and crashed and burned with Princess Rascal. Brighton View ran too bad to be true, on the whole the race was a disaster with the winner being joint bottom rated for me, so never looked at it
Nott 4.29 Edwin Hubble
Del Corso - 90 good course form in the book, serious contender here
Edwin Hubble - 89 consistent gelding that could give Tom Marquand a very good day
Saphire Steps - 89 mark continues to ease due to poor recent runs, could new trip spark a revival?
Conclusion Del Corso never travelled and was beaten very early, Sapphire Steps finished just in front of him and another 40-1 highly rated loser. Thankfully Edwin Hubble saved the day , just.
On the whole a profit is a profit. Got to learn to trust the betting market a bit more. The only issue with that one being, I rate the races 24-48 hrs in advance and more often than not no market has been formed.
trecelyn
Filly
South 8.30
Jersey Maverick - 91 I cannot fathom why Bet365 have this one at 18-1, change of stables, removal of headgear and poor strike rate maybe?
Supreme Clarets - 89 rating comes from turf, so, AW debut must be a bit of a concern
Billyb - 88 is a 7 year old which immediately makes me wary. Jockey booking also red flag for me
Cannot get a proper feel for any of the top rated at moment, will come back tomorrow with a fresh pair of eyes for another look
Jersey Maverick - 91 I cannot fathom why Bet365 have this one at 18-1, change of stables, removal of headgear and poor strike rate maybe?
Supreme Clarets - 89 rating comes from turf, so, AW debut must be a bit of a concern
Billyb - 88 is a 7 year old which immediately makes me wary. Jockey booking also red flag for me
Cannot get a proper feel for any of the top rated at moment, will come back tomorrow with a fresh pair of eyes for another look